In September, the dichloromethane market did not experience the traditional “golden nine” peak season. Instead, under the pressure of severe supply-demand imbalance, the market continued to bottom out and prices fell to a nine-year low.

Price trend: Expectations of peak season fall short, price depth drops
As of September 28th, the average price of dichloromethane in Shandong Province has dropped to 1695 yuan/ton, a sharp drop of 15.04% from the beginning of the month and a year-on-year drop of 36.64%. The expectation of “Golden September” has completely fallen through, downstream stocking sentiment is extremely weak, market trading is sluggish, and companies continue to offer discounts to ease inventory pressure.
Analysis of influencing factors
Supply side: Maintain high load, huge supply pressure
The industry’s operating rate continues to remain at a high level of 85%, although some companies have temporarily reduced their losses, it has little impact on the overall relaxed supply pattern. The high inventory pressure on enterprises has led to continuous price reductions and destocking.
Cost side: Insufficient support
In terms of raw material methanol, the methanol market experienced narrow fluctuations in September, which limited the cost support for dichloromethane. As of September 26th, the benchmark price of methanol in Shengyi Society was 2253.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.91% during the month. The operating rate of methanol enterprises has increased month on month, and some olefins continue to be extracted externally. Traditional downstream industries also have stock up before the holiday, and the inventory of enterprises has been reduced. The downstream negative operation of Shandong liquid chlorine has driven up the prices of liquid chlorine in surrounding areas, resulting in an upward movement of liquid chlorine prices. However, it has not been able to reverse the downward trend of dichloromethane caused by its own supply and demand problems..
Demand side: Both domestic and foreign demand are weakening
Weak domestic demand: Downstream only maintains small orders for essential needs, lacking the motivation for large-scale stocking. In addition, typhoon weather further suppressed actual demand. The National Day holiday may cause some factories to shut down and take leave, resulting in a decrease in actual production days, which may cause a temporary drop in demand in early October.
External demand contraction: The export volume in August decreased by 23.28% month on month, which is a key signal indicating that the export driving force that previously supported the market weakened in September, exacerbating domestic supply pressure.
Future outlook:
It is reported that some companies have reported plans to reduce their load in October. This will be the key to reversing the market downturn. If production cuts are implemented, it will effectively alleviate supply pressure and provide bottom support for prices. The recovery situation on the demand side is still unknown. The National Day holiday may lead to a reduction in effective working days in early October, and demand may experience a temporary decline. There is also uncertainty about whether exports can return to growth. It is expected that the market will enter a period of bottom oscillation and recovery. Pay attention to the efforts of enterprises to reduce their burden.