Market Overview
After the May Day holiday, the dichloromethane market in Shandong was under pressure and fell. During the holiday, logistics capacity has decreased, and enterprise inventory has accumulated again. After the holiday, the demand side urgently needs to purchase, and market trading has been sluggish. Manufacturers have offered small discounts on shipments, but transactions still show weakness. According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of May 9th, the average price of dichloromethane dispersed water in Shandong Province was 2065 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.95% during the week.
analysis of influencing factors
Supply side: Local enterprises have lowered negative loads to stabilize prices, while overall supply remains relatively loose
Device dynamics: Jinling Chemical Industry in Shandong Province is operating at a reduced load, with an overall operating rate fluctuating around 75% and a relatively stable supply.
Enterprise inventory: After the holiday, inventory has accumulated, and some enterprises’ inventory has risen to medium to high levels, increasing the pressure on enterprise shipments.
Cost side: Differentiation of raw material trends
Methanol: The fundamentals are weak, and the price of methanol has slightly decreased. As of May 8th, the spot price of methanol in Shandong was reported at 2390 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 2.05%, weakening the cost transmission power. Due to the off-season demand, it is expected that there will be significant upward pressure on prices.
Liquid chlorine: The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong has risen strongly, providing strong support for the cost of dichloromethane.
Demand side: primarily focused on essential procurement
Downstream industries such as refrigerants and pharmaceuticals mainly rely on essential procurement, with low enthusiasm for post holiday purchases and weak market transactions. Traders have a strong wait-and-see attitude, with some low-priced goods circulating, but overall transaction volume is limited.
Future prospects
In the short term, the dichloromethane market may continue to experience weak fluctuations:
1. Supply pressure: If the enterprise continues to reduce its burden and inventory, prices may receive temporary support; Otherwise, high inventory will suppress the rebound space.
2. Cost game: The strong liquid chlorine and weak methanol form a hedge, narrowing the profit margin of enterprises and potentially forcing further production cuts.
3. Demand recovery: If downstream industries do not concentrate on replenishing inventory, the market will be difficult to change its fatigue. It is expected that prices will remain low and consolidate before the traditional peak demand season in June.