1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Business Society, nickel prices rose first and then fell this week. As of April 12th, the spot nickel quotation was 138516.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.58% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 27.18%.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, nickel prices have fallen by 4 and risen by 7 in the past 12 weeks, with a slight increase in nickel prices recently.

Nickel industry chain

LME nickel inventory

As shown in the above figure, LME nickel inventory has slightly decreased recently, with 75252 tons of LME nickel inventory as of the weekend, a decrease of 2.46% compared to the beginning of the week.

On a macro level, the March inflation reported by the United States exceeded expectations, crushing market expectations for a rate cut in June, leading to an increase in risk aversion. At the same time, the strength of the US dollar further released bearish pressure. The weak inflation data of Chinese consumers has dampened the optimistic sentiment in the market. Due to the continued sluggish consumer demand in March and overall sufficient market supply, the national PPI decreased by 0.1% month on month, which has narrowed compared to the previous month; A year-on-year decrease of 2.8%, with a slight expansion in the decline. At the same time, the month on month CPI also showed a seasonal decline, with a slight decline in year-on-year growth, which to some extent brought uncertainty to the outlook for metal demand.

In terms of supply: During the Eid al Fitr holiday in Indonesia this week, some smelters will take turns. Due to scheduling factors at the small K port, the arrival time of externally mined nickel ore has been delayed. The approval process for Indonesian nickel mine RKAB is accelerating, and nickel supply is slowly recovering with the end of the rainy season. Inventory is rising, and prices are starting to decline, weakening cost support for nickel iron and stainless steel. The price of nickel sulfate has slightly decreased.

In terms of demand, stainless steel is experiencing a dynamic decline in cost support due to the decrease in nickel iron prices, leading to a seasonal decline in inventory. The current loss of stainless steel may lead to a reduction in production by steel mills in the future. In terms of new energy, the domestic flow of intermediate products in Indonesia has decreased, and the supply of nickel sulfate raw materials is tight. At the same time, the month on month growth of ternary production has driven the demand for nickel.

In summary, the US inflation data exceeded expectations, weakening market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut, and the US dollar index surged to a new high since November last year. The trend of non-ferrous metal market is under pressure. The pattern of nickel surplus remains unchanged, with no new demand growth points, and it is expected that nickel prices will mainly operate weakly in the short term.