According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the prices of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate continued to decline this week. The average domestic mixed price of industrial grade lithium carbonate on September 21 was 175000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.41% compared to the average price of 189000 yuan/ton on September 17. The average domestic mixed price of battery grade lithium carbonate on September 21 was 190000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.32% compared to the average price of 205000 yuan/ton on September 17.
By observing market changes, it can be seen that the price of lithium carbonate continued to decline this week. In terms of supply, due to the impact of environmental inspections in the current Jiangxi region, mica mining is limited, resulting in a narrowing of profit margins for some Jiangxi lithium salt factories and the phenomenon of production stoppage and reduction. However, it is understood that the amount of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China increased significantly in August, and it is expected that this portion of lithium salt will arrive in China in September, which will form an effective supply for the overall supply of lithium carbonate in China. In addition, some large lithium salt factories have recently released products at low prices, resulting in an increase in the flow of lithium carbonate in the market.
In terms of demand, the current market has weak supply and demand, and downstream demand expectations are relatively pessimistic, with no obvious signs of improvement in the short term. Buying demand is weak, and transactions are light. With the state of downstream bargain hunting, the focus of market transactions has shifted downward.
The lithium hydroxide market continues to decline, with the recent weak performance of the spodumene concentrate market, the decline of the lithium carbonate market, weakened cost support, insufficient follow-up of downstream demand, cautious procurement on demand, and a light trading atmosphere in the market. Transactions are mainly long-term orders, and the focus of negotiations in the lithium hydroxide market is weakening.
The downstream price of lithium iron phosphate shows a downward trend, with the overall market being weak and declining. Downstream restocking is on demand, while upstream lithium carbonate continues to decline. The weak cost support of lithium iron phosphate has led to a decrease in the price of lithium iron phosphate.
In terms of futures, on September 21, the opening price of the LC2401 contract for lithium carbonate futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 153600 yuan/ton, with the latest price of 159950 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 2.53%, with 220000 transactions and 66110 positions.
Lithium carbonate analysts from Business Society believe that the marginal cost line of lithium salt plants has repeatedly broken through, and many lithium salt plants have started to reduce and shut down production. This will alleviate the supply of lithium carbonate in the future, but the rebound in downstream demand is still less than expected. The phenomenon of strong upstream and downstream gaming will continue, and it is expected that lithium carbonate prices may remain weak in the short term.