Downstream pressure tar price slightly decreased (from February 24 to March 3)

From February 24 to March 3, 2023, the production price of coal tar in Shanxi fell. According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the average market price at the weekend was 5607.5 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the weekend was 5512.5 yuan/ton, down 1.69%.


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The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of price trend K-line to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates: rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the above monthly coal tar K-column chart that the coal tar market has declined for three consecutive months since November 2022, and the price has started to rise since February. The weekly K-bar chart shows that the coal tar market has fallen for six consecutive weeks, and the price has gradually warmed up after the Spring Festival.


The coal tar (high temperature) commodity index on March 2 was 192.24, down 1.12 points from yesterday, down 16.95% from the cycle’s highest point of 231.47 (2022-11-09), and up 307.72% from the lowest point of 47.15 on December 6, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).


This week, the bidding price of coal tar in Shanxi was mainly down, with the mainstream implementation of 5500-5580 yuan/ton, down 100-150 yuan/ton from the auction price last week. At present, in terms of supply, coking enterprises have started work fairly well, the operating rate is basically flat compared with the previous period, the tar supply is relatively stable, the downstream performance is average, and the resistance to high prices is strong, and the tar price is mainly downward this week.


Supply: Since the operating rate of coking enterprises entered the second half of February, with the recovery of the downstream steel market and the recovery of demand for coke, the operating rate of coking enterprises has increased slightly. As of this Friday, the operating rate of coking enterprises in major regions in China has increased slightly, and the overall supply of coal tar is relatively sufficient.


Demand: The deep processing industry is the main application field of high temperature coal tar. The main commodities obtained by deep processing include naphthalene, anthracene oil, wash oil, asphalt, etc. Downstream commodities rose and fell this week, with only the price of industrial naphthalene and wash oil rising slightly. In the early stage, with the tar price rising all the way, the profit of the deep-processing industry continued to decline, and the resistance to high-priced tar was strong, and the downstream delivery capacity further declined. The operating rate of the deep-processing industry this week was basically the same as that of last week. Under the pressure of the downstream, the auction price of tar this week was significantly reduced.


On March 3, the auction of the Japanese week was basically over, and the tar price in the main domestic production areas was mainly down, and the downward range varied from place to place. The mainstream price in Shanxi is 5500-5600 yuan/ton, down by about 150 yuan/ton. In Shandong, it is 5500 yuan/ton, down about 300 yuan/ton. In Henan Province, it is 5550 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton.


In the future, the business agency believes that with the current round of tar price correction, the profits of the deep processing industry will be partially recovered, and the overall receiving capacity of the downstream deep processing market is still weak, and the mentality of suppressing tar still exists, but the current operating rate is generally stable, and the market just needs to remain. In a comprehensive view, under the current environment of weak demand and moderate supply, it is expected that the tar market will operate in a stable and weak manner next week.

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