Introduction: Recently, the business agency received a call from such an investor. The investor was very concerned about the concept of disinfectant products. Millions of them bought a certain stock, but they didn’t expect to buy it at the cost price of 35 yuan per share. As a result, the price fell all the way. By the time of 28 yuan, the stock had dropped 7 yuan per share. The investor was in a state of anxiety and restlessness. So he asked the business agency about Disinfectant products and their trend under the epidemic situation.
According to a survey conducted by the business association, the behavior of the above-mentioned investors is not an example. Under the background of the current severe epidemic situation, the consumption of disinfectant products at home and abroad has increased greatly, and the products are in short supply. The relevant concepts of futures market and stock market have been popular for a time. So, what are the main disinfectants for the current epidemic? What is its use, upstream raw materials, market trend and future situation? Strictly control the epidemic situation, is the disinfectant market hot or has it been the rational normalization demand? Business club will interpret “market situation of disinfectant chemical raw materials under the epidemic situation” with you.
1、 General situation of disinfection market under the new epidemic situation
In order to ensure the supply of basic production materials for medical materials, in the first quarter of this year, relevant domestic enterprises made full efforts to produce and transfer production to ensure the supply of raw materials for various epidemic prevention materials. In addition to masks and melt blown cloth, the market demand for disinfectants increased significantly, and the export volume also reached a new high. During the Spring Festival in 2020, the growth rate of tmall platform disinfectant hand sanitizer, disinfectant and skin disinfection care products increased by 37 times, 33 times and 21 times, respectively, compared with the same period last year. Affected by the epidemic situation, the market of disinfection products has an explosive growth.
The novel coronavirus novel coronavirus was issued by the national health and health committee recently. It was pointed out that there was no direct information about the resistance of the new coronavirus, except that the chlorinated compounds were ineffective against the new coronavirus, and all other classical disinfection methods could kill the coronavirus. Modern commonly used disinfectants are chlorine containing disinfectants, which refer to disinfectants that can produce sodium hypochlorite when dissolved in water, including 84 disinfectants, bleaching powder, peroxide disinfectants and alcohol disinfectants, which are commonly used in daily life, and the rest are aldehydes, phenols, iodine and quaternary ammonium disinfectants.
According to the disinfection efficacy, the disinfectant can be divided into: high efficiency disinfectant, medium efficiency disinfectant, low efficiency disinfectant and disinfectant. Among them, high-efficiency disinfectant refers to the disinfectant which can kill some bacterial propagules, viruses, fungi, etc. Medium efficiency disinfectant is a kind of disinfectant which can kill Mycobacterium, fungus, virus, cell propagator and other microorganisms. Low efficiency disinfectant is a kind of disinfectant which can kill bacteria and lipophilic virus. Among them, chlorine containing disinfectant and peroxide disinfectant mostly belong to high efficiency disinfectant, alcohol, isopropanol and iodine disinfectant belong to medium efficiency disinfectant, and quaternary ammonium salt disinfectant belongs to low efficiency disinfectant. Formaldehyde, alkyl compounds and peroxides are bactericides.
Recently, the State Administration of market supervision and the State Standardization Administration approved the release of 14 compulsory national standards, including the general requirements for hand disinfectants. The newly issued standards are organized and formulated by the national health and Health Commission and the State Food and drug administration, mainly involving disinfectants, disinfection equipment, medical equipment and other key areas of epidemic prevention and control. In the field of disinfectants, six product standards, including general requirements for hand disinfectants, general requirements for air disinfectants, general requirements for disinfectants in epidemic areas, and one basic standard, i.e. list of disinfectant raw materials and prohibited substances, were issued. The disinfectant series product standard belongs to the revised standard, which improves the basic indicators of disinfectant, such as raw material requirements, technical requirements, inspection methods, use methods, labels and instructions, and greatly improves product quality, performance and safety. “List of disinfectant raw materials and prohibited and restricted substances” is formulated for the first time, which stipulates the list of 85 raw materials active substances, 115 raw materials inert ingredients and other raw materials that can be used for disinfectants, as well as the list of prohibited and restricted substances, so as to control the content of toxic and harmful substances in disinfectants from the source. The disinfectant series standards will play an important role in strengthening the disinfection of hospital environment, public places and personal protection control.
2、 The development of chemical raw material market of mainstream disinfectants in China under the epidemic situation
1. Market situation of domestic mainstream disinfection chemical raw materials
1.1 ethanol:
After the Spring Festival, the demand for ethanol increased, the comprehensive production and supply of many enterprises were sufficient, and the market price rose slightly. At the beginning of February, affected by the epidemic, the demand for 75% concentration of medical disinfectant alcohol increased sharply, and some areas were out of stock. Ethanol production enterprises are more urgent to apply for disinfection alcohol production license and transfer to 75% of disinfection alcohol production, resulting in a shortage of 95% ethanol spot in East China and other places, the price is supported, and the adjustment is stronger than before the festival. In the middle of February, the supply of goods in the northern region reached the ports in South China, and the market supply increased significantly. However, the demand for alcohol in the lower reaches slowed down and the price did not change much. In the late February, 75% of the alcohol production has largely met the market demand, the downstream construction has been resumed, the logistics situation has gradually eased, the circulation of goods sources has increased, the increase of market supply is greater than the increase of demand, and the quotation of ethanol production enterprises has dropped sharply to stimulate the downstream purchase, but the downstream is affected by the psychology of buying up and not buying down, and the market turnover volume is limited. In April, the domestic ethanol market price ushered in a new wave of rise. On April 1, the price of domestic ethanol market was 5262 yuan / ton. As of April 24, the price of domestic ethanol market was 5437.5 yuan / ton, up 3.33%, 2.59% month on month, up 2.14% year on year.
1.2 isopropanol
With the spread of overseas epidemic, China’s isopropanol export increased significantly, and the isopropanol market rose significantly. On the domestic side, the monitoring data of the business agency showed that on February 1, the price of the market in East China was 6787 yuan / ton, and on March 12, the average price of the market in East China was 6000 yuan / ton, down 11.6% on the whole. At that time, affected by the domestic health events, the resumption of work of domestic downstream enterprises was delayed, the logistics and transportation were blocked, and the terminal demand was poor. On the demand side, ethanol was more favored in the domestic disinfectant Market The market share of domestic disinfectant Market is significantly higher than that of isopropanol in terms of consumption habits and costs. In February, the isopropanol market, like most other bulk chemicals, showed a narrow downward trend. Since the middle of March, with the spread of the overseas epidemic, the demand for disinfectant market has increased, and the Isopropanol at home and abroad has changed dramatically. In terms of external quotation, as of April 17, the weekly quotation of FOB US Gulf was 3850-3872 US dollars / ton, up 270% from the average price of 1041 US dollars / ton at the beginning of March; the weekly quotation of FOB Rotterdam was 3832 US dollars / ton, up 262% from the price of 1058 US dollars / ton at the beginning of March; while in China, according to the monitoring data of business cooperatives, the average quotation of East China on March 14 was 6025 yuan / ton, as of April 21 The average offer was 13600 yuan / ton, with the largest market increase of 125.73%. As of April 24, the average offer in East China was 12766.7 yuan / ton, which fell back after the market surged. The details are shown in the figure above.
1.3 sodium hypochlorite
The domestic sodium hypochlorite Market reported a short upward correction after the market supply is sufficient. It is understood that at the beginning of February, the price of 13% sodium hypochlorite disinfectant in the domestic market went up. Under the influence of logistics transportation and demand, the price rose from 700-800 yuan / ton before the festival to 1100-1200 yuan / ton. After a long time, with the recovery of domestic transportation, the enterprise quickly resumed production. At the beginning of March, the market price was adjusted to 900 yuan / ton. After the middle of March, the market price recovered to 1100-1200 yuan / ton Before the festival, 13% sodium hypochlorite Market offer remained at 700-800 yuan / ton in the past month.
1.4 ethylene oxide
When ethylene oxide is used as sterilizing agent in the production process of mask, the demand is small. According to the monitoring, in February, the offer of ethylene oxide market remained stable at 7600 yuan / ton. In March, the price of ethylene raw material fell continuously, the price of ethylene glycol was affected by crude oil, and the market kept bottoming out. The progress of the downstream infrastructure industry was not fully opened, and the terminal export was not smooth, which led to the weak support of ethylene oxide fundamentals, the rumors of market price reduction were rampant, and the market continued to drop towards the end of the month Continue to fall, the market bearish atmosphere is strong, affected by the epidemic a wide range, the overall industry is more bearish factors. In recent years, there is no significant increase in the types of downstream derivatives of ethylene oxide in China, and the main downstream products are still polycarboxylate water reducing agent monomer, surfactant, ethanolamine, etc., of which 52% are polycarboxylate water reducing agent monomer, 28% are surfactant, 7% are ethanolamine, and there is no significant fluctuation in the demand share pattern. In the future, the polycarboxylate water reducing agent monomer will still be ethylene oxide The leader of the lower reaches.
On the other hand, ethylene oxide is a broad-spectrum and efficient gas sterilization disinfectant, which has a strong penetration to disinfected articles, can reach the depth of articles, and can kill a number of pathogenic microorganisms, including bacterial propagules, spores, viruses and fungi. Ethylene oxide is used for disinfection and sterilization of disposable masks. Although the current output of masks is large, there is little demand for ethylene oxide for mask disinfection, which does not form a good stimulus for ethylene oxide.
2. Application principle of common disinfection materials in disinfection
Alcohol and isopropanol are alcohol disinfectants, which are the most commonly used skin disinfectants. The reason why alcohol can disinfect is that alcohol can absorb the water of bacterial protein, dehydrate, denature and coagulate it, so as to kill bacteria. Different concentrations of alcohol are made from high concentration (95%) alcohol diluted with distilled water. 75% alcohol is used for sterilization; 50% alcohol is used for bedsore prevention; 20% – 50% alcohol is used for physical cooling of patients with high fever. The selected concentration of medical disinfection alcohol is 75% ethanol. This concentration of alcohol is the best disinfectant, too high or too low is not good. Hospitals also use 95% alcohol, but this is not used to disinfect the human body, it can be used to wipe the UV light.
Isopropanol is a better disinfectant than ethanol. In the field of virus protection, the performance of isopropanol is more outstanding than that of ethanol, the main reason is that isopropanol is equivalent to adding two groups of methyl groups on the basis of ethanol, which makes its lipophilicity greatly enhanced, and the permeability enhanced by this lipophilicity also makes it more aggressive to the protein shell of the virus. Previously, it was found on amazon.com that the proportion of isopropanol disinfectants overseas was significantly higher than that in China (more than 30%), and the demand for isopropanol disinfectants overseas was much higher than that in China.
84 disinfectant is a kind of highly effective chlorine containing disinfectant mainly composed of sodium hypochlorite (NaClO), with an effective chlorine content of 5.5-6.5%. It is now widely used in hotels, tourism, hospitals, food processing industries, families, etc. The bleaching property of NaClO is not that of NaClO, but that of HClO (hypochlorite). HClO has very strong oxidizability, which can oxidize most substances and make them denatured. Therefore, it can play a role in disinfection. Carbon dioxide (co 12) in the air can react with NaClO to get HClO. 84 disinfectant has certain irritancy and corrosiveness, which will cause greater irritation to skin and mucous membrane. Generally, the chlorine content of this disinfectant is 5%. It must be diluted with 200 times of water when it is used. If it is not diluted in proportion, it will have certain corrosiveness.
Ethylene oxide belongs to heterocyclic compounds and is an important petrochemical product. It used to be used to make fungicides. Ethylene oxide is flammable and explosive. It is not easy to transport for a long distance, so it has strong regional characteristics. Ethylene oxide is a colorless and transparent liquid at low temperature and a colorless gas with ether irritant odor at normal temperature. The vapor pressure of the gas is high, which can reach 141kpa at 30 ℃. This high vapor pressure determines the strong penetration of ethylene oxide during fumigation and disinfection. It has strong penetrability to sterilized articles, can reach the depth of articles, and can kill a number of pathogenic microorganisms, including bacterial propagules, spores, viruses and fungi. It is widely used in medical sterilization and industrial sterilization. After using ethylene oxide to disinfect disposable masks, a series of procedures are needed to be processed. Before leaving the factory, the content of ethylene oxide in disposable masks must be tested to meet the standard, so it is basically harmless to human breathing.
3. Disinfectant export market ushers in a window period
As of April 24, the cumulative number of confirmed cases overseas was 2.67 million, with a huge demand for epidemic prevention materials. In the short term, the demand for raw materials for epidemic prevention materials overseas increased unabated.
In terms of policy, on March 20, China raised the tax rebate rate for some chemicals exports. The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued the announcement on increasing the export tax rebate rate of some products. According to the announcement, the export tax rebate rate of disinfectants and other chemicals was increased to 13%. With the increase of tax rebate rate, the international competitiveness of isopropanol in China has been further increased. Under the current special situation, it is conducive to the development of global markets such as Europe and the United States. On March 27, the Department of Commerce of Hunan Province took the lead in printing and distributing the special action plan for expanding the export of epidemic prevention products and consumer goods nationwide, which clearly defined “government guidance, enterprise main body, overall planning of supply and demand, risk pre control”, promoted overall support for overseas epidemic prevention and control and international market development, vigorously organized the export of epidemic prevention products and consumer goods to overseas epidemic countries and regions, and actively expanded Export of epidemic prevention products and consumer goods in Hunan Province.
In terms of products, the export situation of isopropanol is gradually increasing. According to the data released by the General Administration of customs, China’s isopropanol export in 2010 was only 1700 tons, and the total export volume of China’s isopropanol in 2018 was 105500 tons, a significant increase of 134.6% over 2017. In 2019, China’s total isopropanol exports reached 16795 tons, an increase of 60% year on year. At present, the domestic sales of isopropanol are mainly focused on the export. According to statistics, the export volume in February is about 8493 tons, and it is estimated that the export volume in March will exceed 20000 tons, an increase of 135.5%. It is predicted that the export volume in April is expected to further double. The export orders of domestic mainstream isopropanol factories have been scheduled to May. At present, the export volume is expected to reach a new high in 2020. The increase of isopropanol export has eased the situation of domestic surplus, and also played a supporting role in the domestic isopropanol market price in a certain stage. From the end of March to the middle of April, the volume of exports was about 60 thousand tons, which basically sent to Japan, South Korea, Southeast Asia, Europe, the Middle East and other countries. They demanded more ethanol from superior or above indicators, mostly in small packages, and in Southern China part of them were exported by gel hand sanitizer or spray. There is another reason for the sharp increase in export volume in April. Currently, isopropanol prices are high, and factory orders have been mostly arranged to June. Under the high price and limited supply, foreign businessmen began to seek alcohol export.
On March 24, Jianghan Salt Chemical, a subsidiary of Sinopec, sent 300 tons of bleaching powder concentrate disinfectant to overseas markets for the first time through ports such as Shanghai and Shenzhen. Sinopec officials said that the recent overseas orders of Jianghan Salt Chemical Co., Ltd. increased substantially year on year. Recently, the company has exported 10256 tons of bleaching powder refined products to more than 10 countries, including Italy, France, Australia, New Zealand, Thailand and Vietnam. At present, the company still has 14000 tons of orders, and the customer demand is expected to grow further.
4. Upstream raw materials of industrial chain
4.1 ethanol industry chain
At present, most of the domestic alcohol producers are corn alcohol. In terms of raw materials, the demand for corn increases after the feed industry changes temperature, and the price of corn continues to rise with the increase of downstream demand. At present, there is not much surplus grain for farmers, and the price continues to rise under the favorable support of the increase of supply and demand. Taking Jilin area as an example, the price rises to 1860 yuan / ton, DDGS to 2000 yuan / ton. The time of temporary storage and auction in 2020 has not been set, and the market It is reported that at the end of April and the beginning of May, after the temporary storage auction, the market price of raw materials will be eased. Whether the impact of insect pest on the production of corn in the later period will be another issue worthy of attention. The price of raw cassava continued to fall in April. Affected by the epidemic, the FOB low-end price of Thailand’s cassava chips was $201 / ton, and the freight price fell sharply. But with the end of the epidemic and the end of the cassava harvest season, the price of cassava chips sent to China will rebound. In terms of raw material molasses, the grinding season is basically over, the raw material price in this season remains high, and in the later stage, the raw material price will remain high.
4.2 isopropanol industry chain
In the face of the increase of overseas demand, the operating rate of isopropanol plant increased, and the demand for raw materials increased, driving the raw material market up substantially. At present, there are three processes for isopropanol production in domestic factories: propylene water process, acetone hydrogenation process and isopropyl acetate hydrogenation process. With the process diversification, the potential difference of each process also intensifies the competition of isopropanol industry. At present, the annual capacity of isopropanol in China is about 840000 tons, of which propylene water method accounts for about 25%; acetone hydrogenation method accounts for about 60%; isopropyl acetate hydrogenation method accounts for about 15%. Taking the acetone isopropanol industrial chain as an example, according to the monitoring data of the business agency, taking the East China market as an example, after the Spring Festival, the market demand is low and the transportation is blocked. In February, the East China market first fell below 5000 yuan / ton. In March, a “black swan” followed closely, and the crude oil plummeted nearly 30%, causing heavy damage to the entire petrochemical sector, and acetone is also hard to escape. In a few trading days, the East China market The acetone market fell to 4200 yuan / ton, which is about to break the “4″ market. Isopropanol in the downstream disinfection market saved the plunging acetone. With the increasing demand for isopropanol, the enterprise’s operating rate continued to rise, the market’s inquiry and purchase of raw acetone increased, and the short-term demand for raw materials was expected to increase. On March 17, the acetone in East China rose 600 yuan / ton in three trading days, and the offer in East China was 4750 yuan / ton, In the middle and last ten days of March, the acetone market maintained a relatively high operation for a period of time. The trend in this stage was out of the heavy blow of the petrochemical industry chain and up against the trend. After a period of downstream procurement, although acetone still can not escape the negative impact of the cost of upstream crude oil and pure benzene plummeting at the end of March, it fell for a short time, but in April, under the influence of the expected reduction of crude oil production and the favorable release in advance and the sharp rise of propylene, the demand side increased unabated, and the acetone market rose again. As of April 22, the acetone market continued to be high, and the offer in East China was 6850 yuan / ton, Hua The offer is 6600 yuan / ton in North China and 7000 yuan / ton in South China.
In the other industrial chain, propylene isopropanol accounts for a relatively small proportion. As a large number of chemical raw materials, propylene accounts for only 1% of isopropanol, and the effect of isopropanol on propylene is not obvious.
4.3 ethylene oxide industry chain
Ethylene oxide is mainly used in polycarboxylic acid water reducing agent (52%), surfactant (28%), ethanolamine (7%), which accounts for a small proportion in sterilization and disinfection. Therefore, the impact of ethylene oxide on upstream raw materials ethylene and glycol caused by disinfection can be ignored.
3、 Market forecast of disinfectant and development opportunities and challenges in the future
Market forecast: isopropanol has a large space in the domestic disinfection market, and the export volume will remain high in the first half of the current export. In terms of price, some intermediate traders expect that the export volume will be reduced. At present, they are eager to ship and offer 200-500 yuan / ton lower, and the factory’s offer will also decline. In the medium and long term, with the improvement of the overseas epidemic situation, the demand for disinfectants in the overseas market is reduced, while the domestic isopropanol supply is excessive, and the reduction of exports will inevitably have an impact on the demand for isopropanol, and the isopropanol market may have a downside risk. There will still be an increase in the capacity of isopropanol in China from 2020 to 2021, and the trend of isopropanol market will gradually return to a rational space.
Disinfection materials, such as alcohol, wipes and 84 disinfectants, are dangerous goods. MSDS, identification report and reach of dangerous goods are required. Since the requirements for imported respirators, disinfectants and other anti epidemic products are different in each country, the local agent company or receiving company shall be consulted before export to avoid the problem of materials being withheld or returned. However, with the increase of overseas epidemic situation, there is a possibility of further increase of ethanol export orders. The price of ethanol market affected by high-speed traffic restriction before May 1st in China will still rise further, and it is expected to rise by 100-150 yuan / ton. In the medium and long term, the raw material corn market has upside space, and the rising cost may drive the ethanol upward.
Opportunity: before the outbreak, China’s disinfection market was in a slow development trend for a long time, and even the growth rate fell in 2019. In China, in the downstream application market of disinfectants, the demand of agricultural sector accounts for 24%; the demand of medical sector accounts for 19%; the demand of industrial sector accounts for 17%; the demand of animal husbandry accounts for 15%; the demand of public facilities accounts for 13%; and the demand of other sectors accounts for 12%. Under the epidemic situation, epidemic prevention materials were in urgent need all over the country, and disinfection products became the second most scarce material after masks. According to the data released by Suning, the sales volume of hand sanitizer alone increased by 2315% during the epidemic period, and the short-term market demand increased greatly. After the outbreak, with the improvement of people’s understanding of disinfection, the demand for disinfectants in families is increasing, the disinfectant industry has a broad future development space, and the market environment will be further optimized.
Challenge: at this stage, in China’s Disinfectant Market, the number of well-known brands is small, the high-end field is mainly occupied by imported brands, and the low-end field is full of small brands, resulting in increasingly fierce competition in the industry and declining overall profitability. Under the promotion of market demand and national policies, enterprises with insufficient strength in the disinfectant industry will gradually withdraw, and the future industry development will be increasingly standardized and specialized.
To sum up, at present, the contradiction between supply and demand of disinfectant products has been relatively stable, but due to the needs of epidemic prevention and control, the demand side is still developing, especially in the severe situation abroad. The export volume of disinfectant will still be relatively large in the short term, which will form a certain support for the price. On the whole, the market’s attention to disinfectants is more rational; in the future, following the changes in the global prevention and control situation, its application will gradually become normalized.