1、 Price trend

According to business agency data, on July 31, the average ex factory price of oil to ethylene glycol in North China was 3667 yuan / ton, up 67 yuan / ton or 1.85% over last week.

On July 30, the market price of ethylene glycol in East China was 3633 yuan / ton, up 68 yuan / ton or 1.91% over the same period last week.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

As of July 30, the total ethylene glycol inventory in the main ports of East China was 1.3794 million tons, a decrease of 32600 tons or 2.31% compared with last Thursday, and a decrease of 10900 tons or 0.78% compared with Monday.

In terms of shipment, Zhangjiagang and Taicang fell this week compared with last week.

At present, the operating rate of ethylene glycol is about 50%, and that of polyester is about 87%, which is slightly lower than that of last week.

In terms of equipment, the ethylene glycol plant with an annual output of 600000 tons of Xinjiang Tianye will be put into operation tomorrow with 200000 tons, and it is expected to see products in early August; the ethylene glycol unit with an annual output of 300000 tons of Zhongyan hongsifang has been reduced to 50% due to failure, which is expected to last until the end of this week.

3、 Analysis and prediction

Ethylene glycol inventory has decreased this week, but from the perspective of shipment, the reason for the decline is not due to smooth sales, but the delay in shipping. Due to the overseas epidemic situation did not appear inflection point, ethylene glycol terminal market is poor, downstream polyester inventory pressure is huge. At the same time, domestic supply side pressure brought by new capacity. Although the maintenance plan of overseas units is increasing in the near future, there will be no shortage of supply in the near future. Therefore, in the absence of long-term good conditions, glycol prices will continue to adjust low.

Adipic acid market trend chart

According to the business club’s big list data, this week (7.20-24), the domestic adipic acid market weak adjustment, some regional prices fell slightly. According to the data monitored by the business agency, adipic acid in East China fell slightly, by only 2.07%. The market demand was sluggish, and the market supply pressure was still under pressure. Most dealers kept their prices mainly low and delivered goods at a profit. Most manufacturers still looked down on the future market and gave priority to stock operation. According to the monitoring of the society, the current quotation range of adipic acid market is 6500-6700 yuan / ton.

In terms of market supply, the operating rate of adipic acid manufacturers this week was flat compared with that of last week, at present, more than 80% of them are at present. The market supply performance is sufficient, and the inventory pressure of manufacturers is still not improved. Dealers usually take delivery of goods normally, and centralized purchasing behavior is not in the off-season market. Some dealers purchase according to the order and light the inventory operation. Generally speaking, the pressure of enterprise inventory and market inventory is relatively large. In terms of cost, the upstream crude oil price continued to fluctuate in an interval and remained relatively high. Pure benzene rose slightly this week by 1.59%, but it is still at a relatively low level (as shown in the figure below). On the contrary, the rising cost has squeezed the profit space of downstream. At present, the main contradiction in the market is that the downstream demand has not fundamentally improved, and adipic acid is squeezed from both upstream and downstream, resulting in the gradual decline of enterprise profits.

Market trend of pure benzene

From the terminal demand point of view, the downstream demand has little change compared with last week, and is still in the off-season level. The operating rate of downstream factories has not significantly increased, and the overall consumption level of plastic products has not increased significantly, which is difficult to boost the market of upstream raw materials. In addition, affected by the epidemic situation this year, the sales volume of polyurethane and other thermal insulation materials is also lower than that of the same period last year. In addition, PA66 and other downstream products did not get out of the predicament, and the price was still hovering at a low level. This week, the price fluctuated in a narrow range and rose by 0.27%. As a result, adipic acid demand is difficult to fundamentally change, inventory is difficult to digest, manufacturers have a lot of pressure, dealers generally follow the market and purchase on demand. In addition, in addition to the weak domestic demand, external demand has also worsened. Especially affected by the overseas epidemic, the external demand has decreased, and the export pressure of adipic acid has continued to increase. It is not ruled out that the inventory will continue to rise in the future.

In the later stage, it seems that the upstream lacks favorable support, the supply is loose, and the market price is squeezed by cheap goods. The downstream market will remain weak due to the weak domestic demand and the shrinking of foreign demand orders caused by the severe overseas epidemic situation.

Since July, the dimethyl ether Market has reached the bottom and rebounded. From July 1 to 26, it showed an upward trend until the turning point appeared on July 27. The market returned to rationality and fell in a weak position. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market on July 26 was 2466.67 yuan / ton, and that on July 27 was 2436.67 yuan / ton, with a one-day drop of 1.22% and an increase of 11.09% compared with the beginning of the month (July 1).

Regional specification: July 27 compared with the previous day

Mass fraction of dimethyl ether in Shandong area: ≥ 99.0% 2350 yuan / ton 0

Mass fraction of dimethyl ether in Hebei Province: ≥ 99.0% 2500 yuan / ton 0

The mass fraction of dimethyl ether in Henan Province: ≥ 99.0% 2370-2480 yuan / ton – 30 / – 20

Due to the long-term downturn of dimethyl ether in the early stage, the price has been at a low level, most enterprises are facing a loss situation, some enterprises are forced to repair or low load production, some enterprises are limited in sales. Henan, as the main production area of dimethyl ether, has basically balanced production and sales. Under this favorable situation, the dimethyl ether market ushered in a price rise in July. It can be seen from the trend chart of DME in July that from July 1 to 12, the market growth was not obvious, and the price rose steadily; from 13 to 17, the market rose rapidly, with the weekly increase as high as 6.57%; from 18 to 26, the market returned to rationality, the rise slowed down, and the period was dominated by high consolidation; until the 27th, there was a downward market.

Due to the influence of seasonal factors, the current hot weather, the market terminal demand is relatively limited, due to the price pull up too fast in early July, with the end of a new round of downstream replenishment, the mentality of resistance to high prices, have withdrawn from the market to wait and see, consumption of inventory, market trading atmosphere has changed. At present, the weakness of international crude oil has a negative impact on the market, and the strong situation of the civil gas market is not there. On the 27th, the ex factory prices of many regions were lowered, and dimethyl ether was affected by this, and finally it was hard to escape the decline. Take Henan xinlianxin as an example, the price remained stable for two consecutive days from 25 to 26, until the price was first reduced by 20 yuan / ton on the 27th, then the price was adjusted again, and the minimum guarantee policy was implemented from 27 to 28 days. At present, Henan Province is mainly down regulated slightly, while there is no obvious change in Hebei Province and Shandong Province, and the quotation is stable. At present, the operating rate of DME market is only about 10%.

The cost of methanol has been mainly reduced in recent years, but the civil situation of LPG has not been strengthened, so the factory price has been reduced intensively. The weakness of both methanol and LPG affected the market mentality. After the downstream replenishment was in place, they withdrew from the market one after another in the face of high prices, and their mentality was more cautious. However, the current enterprise inventory is operating at a low and medium level, and the pressure is small, so it is mostly adjusted according to its own situation. It is expected that in the short term, the market or horizontal market will be dominated by narrow range consolidation.

1、 Melamine price trend

(Figure: P value curve of melamine product)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the melamine market is mainly stable, strong operation. According to the monitoring sample data of business agency, as of July 24, the average price quoted by melamine enterprises was 5066.67 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the beginning of the week. Taking three months as a cycle, it decreased by 0.65% year on year. At present, the operating rate of melamine plant is not high, the enterprise has no inventory pressure, the market trading atmosphere is fair, and the price of some enterprises has increased, and the melamine market is running steadily.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, melamine prices in some regions (for reference only, the actual transaction price is mainly through negotiation): the price of melamine in some areas is higher than that in other regions

Regional July 20 July 24 remarks

Spot exchange quotation of RMB 5000 / T and RMB 5000 / T in Shandong

Spot exchange quotation of RMB 4400 / T and RMB 4500 / T in Xinjiang

Spot exchange quotation of RMB 4800 / T and RMB 4900 / T in Sichuan

Spot exchange quotation of RMB 4900 / T and RMB 4900 / T in Henan

On July 23, the market of upstream urea in Shandong remained stable for a while. The price of liquid ammonia in the upstream dropped slightly recently. The cost support of urea was weak and the demand for downstream was less. The rubber plate factory and compound fertilizer plant followed up appropriately, and the middlemen took delivery cautiously. The urea price was expected to fluctuate slightly in the future.

3、 Future forecast

Melamine analysts believe that in the near future, driven by the low melamine operating rate and the demand in some regions, it is expected that the melamine market will be stable in the near future.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, today’s comprehensive market price is 13733.33 yuan / ton, and the domestic PC market is running weakly and stably with a narrow range of fluctuations. The industry is cautious and wait-and-see. The downstream demand is weak, and the purchasing enthusiasm is general. Therefore, more discussions are given priority to.

The domestic PC market is weak and stable, with limited negotiation space, insufficient follow-up of downstream demand, strong wait-and-see atmosphere among merchants, and a sharp rebound in raw material bisphenol A on Friday, and the cost side may form a certain support for the PC market. At present, the latest quotations of enterprises are 12700-14600 yuan / ton in East China market, 13000 yuan / ton in Luxi Chemical Industry, 13500 yuan / ton in Lihua yiweiyuan, 13500 yuan / ton in Shanghai Branch At present, the reference price of the East China market is 9600-9700 yuan / ton.

On July 19, the rubber and plastic index was 621 points, unchanged with yesterday, down 41.42% from 1060 (2012-03-14), and 17.61% higher than the lowest point of 528 on April 06, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

PC analyst of business agency thinks: it is expected that the PC market will be weak and stable in the short term, with limited trading space. (the above prices are provided by major PC manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by business PC analysts for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.)

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of July 17, the average price of lithium iron phosphate for domestic power type high-grade products was 37000.00 yuan / ton. This week, the market of lithium iron phosphate remained stable, with increased orders, limited demand and little price change.

The market price range of lithium iron phosphate power type is 34500-37000 yuan / ton, which is still stable and has no obvious change. This week, BYD Auto was officially launched, and its model positioning was medium and large. Four models were launched in the market. The latest research and development of BYD used lithium iron phosphate “blade battery”, and recently a large number of Wuling Hongguang were configured, which also used lithium iron phosphate battery, At present, the domestic power type lithium iron phosphate is getting wider and wider in the technical road, and the day of “counter attack” of lithium iron phosphate is coming. In 2016, the total output of power batteries in China was 28gwh, of which 72.5% were lithium iron phosphate cells. In the first half of 2020, the cumulative production of lithium iron phosphate batteries in China accounted for 51.6% of the total output of power batteries, which has exceeded the proportion of ternary batteries Most of the power batteries for commercial vehicles, buses and public vehicles are lithium iron phosphate batteries. It can be seen that lithium iron phosphate batteries have played an irreplaceable role in the power batteries. In the future, the market of lithium iron phosphate batteries will be more and more broad. At present, the price range of energy storage lithium iron phosphate is 28000-33000 yuan / ton, and the average price is about 30000 yuan / ton, The quotation of Mu power lithium iron phosphate enterprise is 37000 yuan / ton for Guangdong Optical Technology Co., Ltd., 37000 yuan / ton for Foshan Defang Nano Technology Co., Ltd., and 37000 yuan / ton for beiteri new energy materials Co., Ltd.

The upstream lithium carbonate is running in a weak position this week, the market atmosphere is flat, and the number of transactions is limited. Most of them hold a wait-and-see attitude and have strong willingness to support the price. At present, the mainstream price range of industrial grade lithium carbonate is 32000-37000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price range of battery grade lithium carbonate is 39000-41000 yuan / ton,

Compared with the lowest point in 2012, the index of chemical industry dropped from the lowest point of 10.04-16.04 points in the period from July to August 2012, down from the lowest point of 10.04-16.04 points in 2012. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

Business Club lithium iron phosphate analysts believe: lithium iron phosphate market prices remain stable in the short term. (the above prices are provided by major lithium iron phosphate manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by business lithium iron phosphate analysts for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.)

1、 Price data

According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, the price of domestic refiners’ petroleum coke products rose. On May 15, the average price of petroleum coke in Shandong market was 1120 yuan / ton, while on July 13, the average price of petroleum coke in the market was 1182.5 yuan / ton, up 12.09%. On July 13, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 91.97, flat with yesterday, 40.89% lower than 155.59 (January 25, 2018), and 37.49% higher than 66.89, the lowest point on March 28, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2012-09-30 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Since July, the petroleum coke market has entered a stable rising period. The operating rate of petroleum coke units in independent refineries decreased significantly, and the supply of petroleum coke was tight and the price rose. For the time being, the supply of petroleum coke in the main refineries remained stable, while the prices of independent refineries showed a good trend in the near future.

Upstream: in early July, the international crude oil price went up, OPEC + countries firmly reduced production, Saudi Arabia and other countries raised the crude oil price, which boosted the international crude oil price. In the first ten days of July, WTI and Brent crude oil prices rose by 4.15% and 4.89% respectively.

Downstream: the downstream glass market rose steadily. According to the data of the business agency, the overall glass price of this week (7.6-7.10) increased slightly. The average price of glass at the beginning of the week was 18.78 yuan / square meter, and the average price at the weekend was 18.95 yuan / square meter. The price of glass during the week was increased by 0.91%. Recently, the recovery and increase of glass production capacity has also accelerated. In addition, the Meiyu season is affected by weather factors such as rainfall. Production enterprises in some regions rose slightly to boost market confidence and maintain good market sentiment. The traditional sales peak season is coming, and the enthusiasm of downstream traders and processing enterprises to prepare goods has also increased. In terms of carbon, at present, carbon is affected by the upstream raw material petroleum coke. At present, the loss of carbon enterprises has increased, but driven by the price rise of upstream raw material petroleum coke, there is still upward momentum. Silicon metal market with the transaction improved and the end of the bidding, it is expected that the metal silicon market will continue to stabilize.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 10 commodities in the energy sector rising and falling list in the 27th week (7.6-7.10) of 2020, with petroleum coke (3.73%), asphalt (3.66%) and gasoline (2.81%). There were 4 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with coke (- 2.76%), WTI crude oil (- 1.34%) and naphtha (- 1.11%). This week, the average rise and fall was 0.81%.

3、 Future forecast

Due to the shortage of resources, the price of petroleum coke in the local refining market maintained an upward trend. The trading atmosphere of petroleum coke market was good, and it still maintained the upward trend. At present, the transaction of petroleum coke was fair. The number of main units and local refineries will basically remain unchanged, but individual refineries will resume operation, and the overall supply will rise. It is predicted that there will still be a small rise in the petroleum coke market in the later stage, and the overall high-level consolidation market will be the main operation.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, this week, domestic soda ash consolidation operation is mainly. The average market price in East China was about 1256.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 1273.33 yuan / ton at the weekend, up 1.33% and 22.52% compared with the same period last year. The commodity index of light soda ash on July 12 was 65.30, flat with yesterday, down 44.60% from 117.86 (2017-11-21), and 3.40% higher than the lowest point of 63.15 on November 18, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the business agency, there is no obvious sign of improvement in the downstream demand of soda ash market at present, and the market price is still dominated by large, stable and small movements. In North China, the mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1250-1350 yuan / ton, and that of heavy soda is 1350-1450 yuan / ton; in East China, the current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1050-1250 yuan / ton, and that of heavy soda ash is 1150-1250 yuan / ton; in Central China, the market price of light soda ash is about 1050-1250 yuan / ton, and that of heavy soda ash is 1150-1250 yuan / ton At present, the mainstream market price is about 1000-1100 yuan / ton, and the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash is 1100-1150 yuan / ton. The market atmosphere is light, the demand of downstream market is not recovered well, the enterprise inventory is high, and active shipment is the main reason, and the market transaction is not so good. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be more consolidated in the short term. At present, most of the soda ash enterprises have been overhauled, only a few of them are in the process of maintenance. This week, most of the manufacturers who sealed the orders have released the sealed orders, and a few enterprises are still in the sealing state. At present, the total inventory of soda ash is still large.

Raw materials: upstream: at present, the sea salt enterprises are running smoothly, and the market center of gravity has not changed greatly. The well and mineral salt enterprises have begun to rotate for maintenance, and there is a certain inventory pressure. The industrial salt enterprises are stable in shipping, and the enterprises are actively shipping. Stable industry and sufficient market supply.

Demand: glass prices have risen steadily this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of glass was 18.78 yuan / square meter, and the average price at weekend was 18.95 yuan / square meter. During the week, the price increased by 0.91%. In the near future, the recovery and increase of production capacity have also been accelerated. In addition, the Meiyu season is affected by weather factors such as rainfall. Production enterprises in some regions rose slightly to boost market confidence and maintain good market sentiment. The traditional sales peak season is coming, and the enthusiasm of downstream traders and processing enterprises to prepare goods has also increased.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, in the 26th week (6.29-7.3) of 2020, there are 0 kinds of commodities rising and 2 kinds of falling commodities in the price rising and falling list of chlor alkali industry, and there are 3 kinds of commodities that rise or fall to 0. The main commodities that fell were calcium carbide (- 4.26%) and PVC (- 0.48%). This week, the average rise and fall was – 0.95%.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of business agency believe that: at present, the inventory of soda ash is still large. Although the price of glass has increased slightly, the inventory of glass is still at a high level. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, while traders hold a wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that the domestic soda ash market will be sorted out in the short term, with small fluctuations.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, isopropanol prices fell this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of isopropanol in China was 11300 yuan / ton and 10600 yuan / ton at the weekend. The price dropped by 6.19% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

Domestic isopropanol prices continued to fall this week. In the international market, the isopropanol market in the United States continued to fall deeply, while the isopropanol market in Europe slightly improved. The demand for isopropanol in the overseas disinfectant Market decreased, and the overseas orders decreased. The center of gravity of the domestic market has shifted downward, and there are more inquiries. We are mainly on a wait-and-see manner. We are very cautious in taking goods. Up to now, the negotiation range of isopropanol in Shandong Province is about 10300-10800 yuan / ton, and that of Jiangsu Province is 10500-10600 yuan / ton. The negotiation range of isopropanol in South China is 10500-10600 yuan / ton. Recently, export orders decreased, and the favorable foreign trade of isopropanol slowed down.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic acetone market continues to be sluggish, and the market negotiation is deadlocked. The negotiation range is about 8550-8650 yuan / ton. Acetone isopropanol lack of support, the price tilted downward. In terms of propylene, the market price of propylene in Shandong remained stable. At present, the market turnover is between 6810 yuan / ton and 7100 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6850 yuan / ton, which is still in the high range, and the inventory backlog is not obvious. The profit of propylene isopropanol is fair, and the pressure of price reduction is not large due to the decrease of foreign trade orders.

3、 Future forecast

Isopropanol analysts of the chemical branch of business society believe: the market price of raw material acetone continues to be depressed, the profit of propylene isopropyl alcohol is acceptable, and the cost support is weak. On the demand side, the favorable situation of foreign trade slowed down, export orders were significantly reduced, and domestic trade inquiries were more, mainly wait-and-see. Generally speaking, the price of isopropanol in the short term is likely to continue to decline, and the follow-up attention to the news changes.

1、 Price trend of epichlorohydrin

(Figure: P value curve of epichlorohydrin product)

2、 Market analysis

In June, epichlorohydrin market fluctuated and fell. As of June 29, the average price quoted by epichlorohydrin enterprises was 10433.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 5.72% compared with June 1 (11066.67 yuan / ton), and an increase of 8.87% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

In the first half of June, the average quotation price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 11066.67 yuan / ton on the first half of June. However, the spot supply of epichlorohydrin was tight, but the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was not good. On the third day, the market price was lowered to 11000 yuan / ton. The trading atmosphere was stalemate and the actual orders were limited. On the fourth day, the market price was again lowered to 10833.33 yuan / T. the propylene oxide rose steadily and stabilized. The spot supply of epichlorohydrin remained tight and still in stock The price was raised to 11000 yuan / ton on the 6th and stabilized temporarily on the 7th. On the 8th to 11th, the average price quoted by the enterprise was 10833.33 yuan / T. the supply side was tight, but the raw material propylene plummeted, and the cost support was insufficient. The downstream liquid resin factories were shut down for maintenance, and the supply and demand game played. The trading atmosphere was light. On the 12th, the price was again lowered to 10766.67 yuan / T, and the manufacturers offered profits for shipment On the 15th, the price of raw material propylene was raised, but the bearish mood was obvious. The mainstream quotation of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 9800-10300 yuan / T, with a decrease of 2.71% in the first half of June.

In the second half of June, the average quotation price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 10666.67 yuan / ton on June 16, and the price of raw material propylene continued to rise, but the enthusiasm of downstream inquiry was not high, and the intention of buying was low. With the qualified products of Haixing in Jiangsu province put into the market, more attention was paid to the downstream, and epichlorohydrin manufacturers were under pressure to ship. The prices of 17,18,19 were continuously reduced to 10500 yuan / T, and the actual transaction volume in the market was limited. On the 23rd, the average price quoted by epichlorohydrin enterprises was 10466.67 yuan / ton, and the market trading atmosphere was light. On the 29th, the price was again lowered to 10433.33 yuan / ton. Traders’ quotations were mainly based on the market, with insufficient confidence in the market, and the enthusiasm of downstream participation was not high. In the second half of the month (6.16-6.29), epichlorohydrin decreased by 2.19%.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the latest price of epichlorohydrin of some enterprises (for reference only, the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated)

On June 29, the market price of upstream propylene in Shandong continued to rise. According to the price of business agency, Shandong propylene market increased by about 250 yuan / ton in a week at the beginning of June, and there was an obvious correction in the price in the middle of June, with a cumulative decrease of 350 yuan / ton in the seven days of the second week. From June 14 in the middle of the month, the price stopped falling again and rose again. Last Friday, June 19, the price had risen 350-450 yuan / ton. The price remained stable at the weekend, with a total drop of about 250 yuan / ton from the 22nd to 26th. After the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the price rose again from the 27th. Today, it still rose by 50 yuan / ton. The market transaction is between 6750 and 7000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6800 yuan / ton. Propylene manufacturers are now under low inventory pressure, some units are out of service, crude oil prices have risen slightly, and the downstream market operating rate is ideal. It is expected that the propylene price will still rise slightly in recent days, which has a certain positive impact on epichlorohydrin.

On June 29, the downstream epoxy resin Market in East China declined narrowly, the market conversation was cold and the transaction was insufficient, which had a certain suppression effect on epichlorohydrin.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysts of epichlorohydrin of the business club, the price of propylene oxide is going up and the support from the cost side is strengthened. However, the downstream shipment is not smooth, the buying gas is light and the demand side is weak. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market will be weak in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the change of raw material price.