According to the price monitoring data of business club, as of February 1, the average reference average price of domestic n-propanol containing packaging in mainstream areas was around 10866 yuan / ton, which was 733 yuan / ton lower than that on January 24, 2021, with a decrease of 6.32%; compared with that on January 1, the average price was 933 yuan / ton lower, with a decrease of 7.91%.

Demand weakened, shipment slowed, propanol market fell

In the last week of January, the domestic n-propanol market showed a weak decline. Near the Spring Festival, the overall operating rate of n-propanol plants was low, the downstream stock preparation was basically completed before the festival, and the demand weakened. Coupled with the constraints of logistics and transportation and other factors, there were not many new orders. Some n-propanol spot dealers in Shandong and Nanjing reduced their profits and shipped goods at the end of the month. On January 25, the factory report of n-propanol bulk in Shandong was released The reference price was around 9600-10000 yuan / ton, which was about 800 yuan / ton lower than that in the middle of the month. The packaging price was around 10500-11000 yuan / ton, which was about 900 yuan / ton lower than that in the middle of the month. Then the market temporarily stabilized until the end of January. On the 29th, the ex factory price of n-propanol was down again by 200-300 yuan / ton.

On February 1, Shandong n-propanol shippers continued to slightly reduce the ex factory price of n-propanol by 200 yuan / ton. At present, Shandong fengcang chemical’s n-propanol bulk water ex factory reference is 9600 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of n-propanol loose water in Nanjing is 9500-9900 yuan / ton, which is 900 yuan / ton lower than the previous period. The factory quotation of n-propanol loose water in Nanjing Rongxin chemical is 9600 yuan / ton.

As of February 1, the average reference average price of domestic n-propanol containing packaging in mainstream regions was around 10866 yuan / ton, which was 733 yuan / ton lower than that on January 24, 2021, with a decrease of 6.32%; and 933 yuan / ton lower than that on January 1, with a decrease of 7.91%.

In terms of raw materials, the external market of ethylene in January showed a trend of first rising and then falling. The price of ethylene in Asia rose first and then fell. As of the 28th, CFR Northeast Asia quoted us $920-930 per ton, CFR Southeast Asia quoted us $892-900 per ton. The price fluctuation of ethylene market in Europe is relatively small. As of the 28th, the quotation of FD in northwest Europe is US $1114-1124 / T, and that of CIF in northwest Europe is US $1112-1123 / T. The price of ethylene in the U.S. fluctuates greatly, rising first and then falling, and there is a rising trend in the near future. As of the 28th, the price of FD US Gulf is 693-706 US dollars / ton. The overall ethylene market fluctuated greatly in January. The fluctuation of crude oil drives the fluctuation of ethylene market.

Weak market transaction and weak consolidation operation before the festival

At present, the domestic n-propanol market is light, with few new orders. Therefore, the n-propanol Data Engineer of business society believes that before the Spring Festival, China’s domestic n-propanol market will mainly be consolidated and operated, and more attention should be paid to the price trend of raw material cost and market demand in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business community, on October 30, the domestic price of carbon black was 7350 yuan / ton, which fluctuated slightly. The price fluctuation range was 100-300 yuan / ton, and this month’s carbon black market was mainly volatile.

2、 Market analysis

Market quotation

Last week, coal tar, the raw material of carbon black, continued to ferment due to nervousness, the price rose sharply, the production cost of carbon black rose, and the profit margin of carbon black enterprises was squeezed. Support cost of raw coal tar: coal tar is the main raw material of carbon black. Recently, the trend of coal tar is rising, and the support of carbon black cost side is strong. In addition to the impact of the epidemic, the number of transport vehicles is reduced and the interval transportation is affected; the government and enterprises in the main tire producing areas of Shandong Province have issued policies one after another to encourage employees not to return home during the Spring Festival, enterprises not to stop production during the Spring Festival, enterprises need to prepare goods before the festival and other factors to support, and the new order pricing is expected to rise this week.

Import and export

Carbon black import and export data: China’s carbon black export volume will decline in 2020

According to customs statistics, in December 2020, China’s carbon black import volume was 8724.8 tons, with a month on month growth of 18.5% and a year-on-year growth of 27.3%. The main import sources were South Korea (17.3%), the United States (16.8%) and Japan (15.9%). The top three regions in terms of import volume were Shanghai (31.8%), Guangdong (20.3%) and Jiangsu (11.2%).

In December 2020, the export volume of carbon black was 64766.8 tons, a month on month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.8%. The main export countries are Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia and other countries. Among them, 22230.12 tons were exported to Thailand, accounting for 34.3% of China’s carbon black exports, 23.4% in Vietnam, and 13.2% in Indonesia. The main export provinces were Jiangxi Province (23%), Shanghai City (22.8%) and Shandong Province (17.4%).

3、 Future forecast

In 2021, the downstream demand entered the traditional off-season, coupled with the coming Spring Festival holiday, the price of carbon black continued to push up and store pressure, and analysts believed that the price was stable and fluctuated slightly.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic light potassium carbonate was 6475.00 yuan / ton on January 1, and 6575.00 yuan / ton on August 28, up 1.54%. The current price has increased by 1.54% on a month on month basis, and 3.75% on a year earlier.

In January, the domestic potash market continued to rise, with less inventory of various manufacturers and scarce supply of goods on the market. Downstream factories took more goods according to orders, with fewer new orders. Traders mainly supplied by old customers, and the shortage of supply led the market to soar. According to the statistics of the business society, the mainstream ex factory quotation range of domestic industrial grade potassium carbonate this week is about 6400-6700 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only), and the quotation is different according to the different procurement situation.

Recently, the quotation of mainstream potassium chloride manufacturers is temporarily stable: the ex factory quotation of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride at the weekend is 2050 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; the distribution quotation of Anhui Badou potassium chloride at the weekend is 2300 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week. Recently, the supply of new products in the potassium chloride market is relatively limited, and the ports are shipping in succession, and the market is consolidation at a high level.

Potassium carbonate analysts of business news agency believe that the recent domestic port potassium chloride new arrival source is relatively limited, the floor inventory is low, and the cost support is good. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will mainly rise in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by the main manufacturers of potassium nitrate all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by the potassium carbonate analysts of the business society. They are for reference only. For more price details, please contact the relevant manufacturers for consultation).

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of baking soda is stable for the time being. On January 27, the average price in the domestic market was 1496.67 yuan / ton. On January 26, the commodity index of baking soda was 99.34, flat with yesterday, down 18.36% from the highest point of 121.68 (2020-10-21) in the cycle, and up 12.54% from the lowest point of 88.27 on December 22, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2020 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the news agency, the price of sodium bicarbonate runs smoothly, and the downstream market shipment is fair. At present, the price of sodium bicarbonate in Henan is about 1420-1600 yuan, which is the mainstream price in the market. The downstream demand is acceptable. It is expected that the price will be slightly consolidated in the near future. The price of baking soda in Hebei is about 1350-1550 yuan / ton, which is the mainstream price in the market, and the downstream demand is acceptable.

Raw materials: the domestic soda ash market atmosphere is light, downstream manufacturers are cautious and wait-and-see attitude is dominant, and it is expected that the later soda ash operation will be mainly stable and small. The price of soda ash in Central China is stable with small fluctuations. The current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1300-1400 yuan / ton. The market atmosphere is general, and the overall downstream manufacturers are cautious. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be stable with small fluctuations in the short term. The price of soda ash in North China is temporarily stable. The current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1350-1450 yuan / ton. The market atmosphere is general. The overall downstream manufacturers are cautious. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be temporarily stable in the short term.

Demand side: downstream medicine, textile and food demand for bicarbonate is acceptable, and the price of bicarbonate is stable. Analysts from business news agency believe that: the domestic soda ash market is temporarily stable, the market atmosphere is light, the downstream manufacturers are cautious and mainly wait-and-see attitude, and it is expected that the general market operation of soda ash will be maintained in the later period. The upstream soda market is more stable than the downstream market, and the downstream market is mainly Duoan on-demand procurement. Generally speaking, the short-term price of sodium bicarbonate may maintain a temporary stable trend, and the specific situation depends on the downstream market demand.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate was temporarily stable this week. By the end of the week, the domestic market price of ammonium nitrate was 2860 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 20.17%. On January 22, the commodity index of ammonium nitrate was 150.53, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 1.38% compared with 152.63 points (2020-11-24), the highest point in the cycle, and increased by 94.56% compared with 77.37 points, the lowest point on October 31, 2016. (Note: period refers to the period from February 1, 2013 to now).

This week, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market maintained a high level. Domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers started their plants normally, and the supply of ammonium nitrate in the yard was slightly tight. Some manufacturers reported that the delivery situation was general, and the price trend of manufacturers maintained a high level. Recently, the supply of goods in the yard was tight, and the transportation was normal, so the market price of ammonium nitrate was temporarily stable. Recently, the shipment market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is normal, and the downstream is purchased on demand. The domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers start work normally, and the prices of some manufacturers rise slightly. Up to now, the mainstream negotiation in Shaanxi is 2600-2800 yuan / ton, the mainstream negotiation in Shandong is 2200-2300 yuan / ton, and the price in Hebei is 3000-3300 yuan / ton.

This week, the domestic price of concentrated nitric acid was stable, with the weekend price of 2016.67 yuan / ton, which was the same as the price of 2016.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu chemical quoted 2200 yuan / ton; Anhui Jinhe quoted 2000 yuan / ton; Shandong helitai quoted 2100 yuan / ton. The price of synthetic chemical industry in Wenshui County is 1950 yuan / ton. In recent years, the domestic maintenance units are running normally, the supply of concentrated nitric acid market is normal, and the delivery situation in the market has improved. The price trend of nitric acid in the market remains high. The high price of nitric acid is a good support for the ammonium nitrate Market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate market remains high.

The price trend of upstream liquid ammonia rose slightly this week, with the weekend price of 3383.33 yuan / ton, up 1.20% compared with the price of 3343.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. The operation of liquid ammonia plant in the yard was normal, the spot supply in the yard was slightly tight, and the price trend of liquid ammonia market continued to rise. In terms of fundamentals, the price of liquid ammonia in Shandong generally rebounded. Due to the low inventory pressure, the operating rate of manufacturers remained at a reasonable level, and there was a certain price gap with other regions in China, especially the northeast region. At the same time, it also undertook some external orders, so the price appeared to compensate for the rising factors. The ammonia quantity in Shandong Province is basically in the balance of supply and demand, which still has some support for the price. From the perspective of the downstream, the demand for agricultural fertilizer is slightly insufficient in the off-season. The price of the upstream has risen this week, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate market remains high.

Recently, the demand of the downstream civil explosive industry is normal, and the production and marketing of nitro compound fertilizer is normal, and the price trend of raw material market rises. However, the spot supply of ammonium nitrate is general, which has a certain positive support for the ammonium nitrate Market. The ammonium nitrate analysts of the business community believe that the market price of ammonium nitrate may remain volatile in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business association, on January 22, the average price of salicylic acid (industrial grade) mainstream manufacturers was 13933 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the month, the same as that at the beginning of the month, the same as that at the same period last year, and the recent market was relatively stable.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the market of salicylic acid was relatively stable, and the price trend was stable for the time being. Some manufacturers said that the prices of sublimation grade and pharmaceutical grade were slightly increased. The demand for downstream products was strong before the year, and some manufacturers’ devices were running at full capacity. The supply was still tight, and the demand was short of supply. The price rose slightly, and large orders were preferential. As of January 22, the quotations of salicylic acid industrial enterprises were mostly in the range of 12000-15000 yuan / ton, the supply and demand were stable, the prices were stable, the quotations of pharmaceutical grade were mostly in the range of 23000-25500 yuan / ton, and the quotations of sublimation grade were mostly in the range of 15000-20000 yuan / ton, and the actual transactions were mainly based on negotiation.

In terms of raw materials, the price trend of domestic phthalic anhydride market has risen slightly in recent days. The market situation of phthalic anhydride is general. There is little change in downstream demand in the near future. The price trend of o-benzene is temporarily stable. The plasticizer market is mainly volatile. The price trend of phthalic anhydride market has risen slightly. The domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers have little change in operation. The operating rate of phthalic anhydride on the floor is about 60%. The domestic phthalic anhydride spot supply is sufficient. The downstream plasticizer industry mainly purchases on demand. The goods on the floor are general, and the trading market on the floor has little change. The price trend of phthalic anhydride market in East China is temporarily stable, with limited high-end transactions on the market. The mainstream price of phthalic anhydride market in East China is 5600-5800 yuan / ton in the negotiation of neighboring France, 5400-5500 yuan / ton in the negotiation of naphthalene method; the mainstream price of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 5600-5700 yuan / ton, the market outlook of phthalic anhydride is still in place, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride market rises slightly.

According to the price monitoring of business community, in the list of commodity prices in the 03 th week of 2021 (1.18-1.22), there were 40 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector that rose month on month, among which 10 kinds of commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 10.9% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities were acetic acid (20.00%), bisphenol A (19.74%) and ethyl acetate (19.39%). There were 20 kinds of commodities with a month on month decrease, and 4 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector. The top 3 products with a decrease were chloroform (- 9.38%), propane (- 6.58%) and propylene oxide (- 6.27%). The average rise and fall this week was 1.25%.

3、 Future forecast

Salicylic acid analysts of business news agency believe that: at present, the downstream has a strong demand for goods preparation before the year, the supply of some levels is tight, the demand exceeds the supply, the price rises slightly, the export side changes little, and the manufacturer has no price adjustment plan near the end of the year. It is expected that the salicylic acid market will be stable.

According to the data of the business club’s block list, this week (1.18-22), the domestic adipic acid market ended its correction and rebounded. According to the monitoring, the sample obviously went up, with a range of 2.51%, and many regions showed a warming trend. And most of the dealers quote tentatively high, East China, South China and other regions generally rose. According to the monitoring of business association, the quotation range of adipic acid market is 8200-8500 yuan / ton.

In terms of market supply, the operating rate of adipic acid manufacturers remained stable in the middle of January, about 80%. The market supply was relatively sufficient, and the inventory pressure of manufacturers was acceptable. At present, the pressure on the manufacturers’ inventory is not great. In the early stage, the dealers had a wave of price reduction to remove the inventory. At present, the social inventory is more reasonable. Combined with the replenishment behavior in the downstream years ago, the pressure on the supply side is generally controllable.

Pure benzene market trend chart

In terms of cost, the upstream crude oil price continued to run at a high level this week, and the rising oil price provided cost support for the downstream chemical industry. The business community monitored that the price of pure benzene in the upstream of adipic acid was mainly running at a high level, rising continuously this month, with a monthly increase of more than 6.53% as of January 22. The pressure of cost (as shown in the figure above) forced adipic acid price to remain at a high level, but it began to rise this week The price of pure benzene will stop rising, adipic acid may lose its cost advantage in the later stage, and the price may be under pressure.

PA66 market trend chart

As far as downstream demand is concerned, the terminal performance is rigid and stable. Although the polyurethane procurement peak is gradually coming to an end, the market demand will inevitably decline, but before the festival, the procurement behavior of downstream stock is not reduced. In January, the price of PA66 is still at a historical high. Up to now, according to the data of business community, the increase in January is 1.53%. The market has been running at a high level, and the strength has declined, and the growth rate has narrowed. It is expected that the market will have a smooth transition before the year, and rigid demand will still give adipic acid some support.

In the later stage, the business community believes that adipic acid is in the adjustment range at present, and the price in the later stage may be subject to the suppression of demand without big action. But at present, when the Spring Festival is approaching, the downstream operating rate may decline, and the cost of pure benzene also shows signs of peaking. The downstream PA66 does not rule out the price callback, and it is expected that adipic acid may maintain a high level in the near future, and it is unlikely to continue to rise And we don’t rule out the possibility of falling back.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business news agency’s block list, domestic toluene showed a rising trend this week. On January 10, the price of toluene was 3810 yuan / ton; on this Sunday (January 17), the price was 3910 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton or 3.71% from last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

Within the week, Sinopec’s Toluene price increased by 150-200 yuan / ton. In terms of external market, as of January 15, the price of toluene imported from South Korea was 533 US dollars / ton, up 17 US dollars / ton or 3.29% from January 8; the price of toluene imported from East China was 532 US dollars / ton, up 7 US dollars / ton or 1.33% from January 8. During the week, crude oil and external market prices continued to rise last week, which was supported by favorable conditions, and toluene prices continued to rise.

In terms of crude oil, international oil prices fell after rising this week, which was lower than last week. Compared with January 8, Brent fell by $0.775/barrel, or 1.42%; WTI rose by $0.16/barrel, or 0.31%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent decreased by 24.38% and WTI decreased by 19.98%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China was stable this week, with domestic goods at 12666.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 8.26% over the same period last year. At present, the domestic market is dominated by consolidation and operation, with cautious attitude in the market, weak follow-up in the downstream and inactive trading.

In the PX market, the domestic PX price this week was more stable than last week. Sinopec’s listed price was about 4700 yuan / ton, down 31.88% year on year. As of January 15, the closing prices of p-xylene market in Asia were US $671-673 / T FOB Korea and US $689-691 / T CFR China.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery of the industrial chain, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, and the progress of the fiscal stimulus plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

Affected by the public health events in Hebei and the rain and snow weather in northern China, transportation is limited, and some domestic downstream terminal plants are expected to shut down one after another, resulting in weaker demand for toluene. Toluene prices are expected to fluctuate next week. Continue to pay attention to the situation of downstream stock before the Spring Festival and the impact of gasoline blending price trend on toluene price.

According to the monitoring data of the business news agency, the external price of ethylene has dropped recently. On January 11, the price was 1086.75 US dollars / ton, and on January 18, the average price of ethylene was 1059.75 US dollars / ton, down 2.48%. The current price has increased by 8.09% month on month, and the current price has increased by 28.11% year on year.

In the near future, the overall external ethylene market showed a downward trend. As of the 15th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $1040-1050 / T and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $980-990 / T. European ethylene market prices fell, as of the 15th, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1093-1107 / ton, CIF northwest Europe closed at US $1103-1114 / ton. The price of ethylene in the U.S. fell. By the 15th, the price was 914-926 US dollars / ton. Recently, the market of ethylene in Europe, America and Asia showed a downward trend. Generally speaking, the demand of the whole ethylene market was poor, the market trading atmosphere was cold and clear, and the market fell all the way.

International: on January 15, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States fell, with the settlement price of the main contract at US $52.42/barrel, down US $1.15. Brent crude oil futures market prices fell, the settlement price of the main contract was $55.10/barrel, down $1.32. Oil prices fell more than 2% on Friday, adding to the epidemic in many parts of the world, raising fuel demand concerns.

Recent styrene market price shocks consolidation. After entering January, the inventory of northern styrene enterprises dropped, the impact on East China arbitrage weakened, the price of production enterprises rose again, and the cost support and some downstream replenishment transactions supported the high opening of the market. And the terminal inventory continued to rise, the emergence of class library, on-site supply increased. The overall downstream production and sales declined, but some of the downstream began to prepare for the holiday in succession. The market transactions were improved, and the price rise of production enterprises followed up. Recently, the price of styrene in East China has been raised to around 6600-6700 yuan / ton.

Ethylene analysts of business society chemical branch think: at present, in terms of crude oil, the global multi regional epidemic affects the atmosphere of the crude oil market, the international oil price falls, and the cost support is weak. Therefore, the data analysts of business society expect that the external price of ethylene will mainly fall in the following direction.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of January 15, the reference average price of silicone DMC market in the mainstream areas of data monitoring was 21500 yuan / ton, which was 167 yuan / ton higher than that of working day (reference average price of 21333 yuan / ton on January 12), and 333 yuan / ton lower than that of January 1, 2021 (reference price of 21833 yuan / ton), with a decrease of 1.53%.

After falling, silicone DMC finally ushered in low price upward

At the end of 2020, the market of silicone DMC in China dropped rapidly. In January 2021, the market of silicone DMC was still weak and weak. The quoted price of mainstream silicone DMC factories was 21000-23000 yuan / ton, and the quoted price of low end was 20500 yuan / ton. Although the price dropped to a reasonable level, the downstream purchasing atmosphere continued to be light and the demand was cautious. In the middle and first ten days of January, on the 11th, Shandong Longcheng Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd The price of DMC in most of the other factories basically remained at the beginning of the month, and some factories closed their offer. This sharp decline brought considerable benefits to the downstream market. Then on the second day, the downstream supplementary orders increased, and the trading atmosphere turned better. From the 13th to the 15th, the leading enterprises were in the market After reducing the price of silicone DMC for several consecutive days, the factory price of silicone DMC was finally slightly increased by 300-500 yuan / ton. At present, the factory price of silicone DMC is 19500-19700 yuan / ton.

A small rebound gives the industry confidence, short-term silicone DMC will be more stable and stronger operation

Organosilicon DMC market has been falling for more than a month, and the price has been hovering at a low level for more than half a month. At present, driven by leading enterprises, the market is in a stalemate, the downstream compensation is more active, and new orders of factories are increasing. The olive branch of the price increase thrown by leading enterprises is just a light to illuminate the current market downturn atmosphere, give the industry confidence, coupled with the Spring Festival As the pace of the market is getting closer and closer, the downstream goods preparation will be started one after another. Therefore, the analysts of silicone DMC in the business community believe that in the short term, the domestic silicone DMC as a whole will run stably, moderately and strongly. With the increase of demand, the market may usher in a sustained and steady rebound.