1、 Price trend

According to the data of business news agency’s block list, the price of toluene continued to decline this week. On March 21, the price of toluene was 5587.5 yuan / ton; on this Sunday (March 28), the price was 5487.5 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton or 1.79% from last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

This week, Sinopec’s Toluene price adjustment range is – 350 / – 150 (yuan / ton). Affected by the sharp rise and fall of crude oil, the spot market price of toluene fluctuated mainly in the week. However, the supply of toluene is generally weak and the demand of downstream market is sufficient. Toluene stocks at ports in East and South China fell this week. In terms of external market, as of March 26, the price of imported toluene from South Korea was 680 US dollars / ton, down 9 US dollars / ton or 1.31% on March 19. The price of imported toluene in East China was US $710 / T, up US $3 / T or 0.42% on the previous trading day and US $1 / T or 0.14% on March 19.

In terms of crude oil, this week’s crude oil showed a “W” trend. Under the long short game, it experienced many ups and downs. Good news: within the week, it was reported that a freighter ran aground in the Suez Canal. The channel may be blocked for several weeks, and crude oil transportation will be blocked. Bad news: US commercial crude oil inventories increased for five consecutive weeks; US bond yields continued to rise; severe epidemic in Europe and India, new round of blockade measures implemented in many places, resulting in weak crude oil demand. On March 19, Brent rose 0.08 USD / barrel, or 0.13%; WTI fell 0.48 USD / barrel, or 0.78%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China fell this week, with domestic goods at 17250 yuan / ton, down 1.43% from last week and up 57.77% from the same period last year. Domestic market wait-and-see consolidation, trading atmosphere is light, downstream inquiry enthusiasm is not high, terminal overall willingness to receive goods is weak, demand is insufficient, just need to purchase. The market was informed that Wanhua Fujian TDI device was overhauled and the market was bullish. It is expected that the future market will be slightly bullish.

In the PX market, the domestic p-xylene ex factory price this week was stable compared with last week, at 6700 yuan / ton, up 42.55% over the beginning of the year and 34% over the same period last year. The supply of goods in the yard is normal, and the goods are in good condition within a week. As of the 26th, the closing prices in Asia were 795-797 USD / T FOB Korea and 813-815 USD / T CFR China.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery of the industrial chain, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, and the progress of the fiscal stimulus plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

At present, the price of toluene mainly fluctuates with the trend of crude oil. Pay attention to the meeting of OPEC + and discuss the new decision on reducing production. On the demand side, the delivery is near the end of the month and the replenishment before the festival, and the downstream market purchasing is concerned. We will continue to pay attention to the international trend of crude oil, the arrival of toluene in Hong Kong, the dynamic situation of domestic enterprises and the impact of downstream demand changes on the price of toluene.

This week (3.22-26) liquid ammonia market rose sharply, according to the business community monitoring, liquid ammonia weekly decline of 8.00%. As of March 26, the monthly increase was 15.18%. The mainstream price in Shandong is 3600-3800 yuan / ton.

This week, the price of liquid ammonia continued the trend of last week and continued to soar. The sharp rise in prices in various regions of China was mainly caused by the tight supply. Previously, large factories in Henan, Hubei and Hunan had been overhauled, and the supply of goods was relatively scarce, especially in the three large factories in Northeast China. Two of them were overhauled, and some of them were seriously short of goods. This week, a factory in Shaanxi had a temporary device overhaul. In addition, some manufacturers in Shandong stopped selling liquid ammonia for their own use. It can be said that the reduction of liquid ammonia output continues to increase, resulting in a more tight supply. Big factories have also increased their quotations this week. According to the monitoring of the business agency, big factories in Shandong have increased their quotations three times in five trading days a week, with an increase of 250 yuan / ton. In addition, driven by the rising price of urea, the price of urea in India has continued to rise in the recent bidding and domestic urea export is favorable, especially in the area of ammonia shortage. The demand side is rigid and stable. In the peak season of spring ploughing, the downstream replenishment increases, and the supply exceeds the demand, which leads to the continuous sharp surge of liquid ammonia.

Urea price trend chart

In terms of urea, urea rose by 0.95% this week. Since the announcement of urea bidding in India, the cumulative rebound rate has been 3.06%. Foreign trade has driven domestic trade procurement, large plants frequently overhaul urea, and the domestic market inventory is also at a low level. Although there are still some light storage sources released in early April, Inner Mongolia plants are affected by double control, and the operating rate continues to decline. The market is expected to have a negative impact on domestic supply The effect should still be obvious. It is expected that the short-term urea price will strengthen or continue to break through, and will seek a balance between export and domestic supply.

Downstream compound fertilizer, generally high consolidation, according to business community monitoring, ammonium phosphate rose slightly this weekend, or 1.32% %The price of diammonium has not changed much. It can be seen that the lower reaches are still weak. The price rise of the upper reaches may further affect the profits of the lower reaches. The market has obviously entered a stagflation period. With the end of spring ploughing and fertilizer preparation, the agricultural demand continues to weaken. It is expected that the high price of raw materials may further lead to the decline of demand.

The manufacturer in Henan thinks that it is difficult to maintain the supply of liquid ammonia for a long time, and it may not be able to solve the problem in the near future.

On March 25, the styrene market as a whole rose steadily. Boosted by the news of production reduction or temporary maintenance of some devices, night styrene futures continued to rise sharply, with be2105 closing at 8177, up 2.15%, increasing 833 positions, boosting the market mentality of today’s styrene spot market. Crude oil rebounded sharply at night, ethylene fell slightly, pure benzene remained stable, cost moved down and styrene profit rebounded. In the downstream, the prices of EPS and PS were stable, ABS rose sharply, and the downstream demand did not improve significantly. In the aspect of equipment, the investment of new production capacity is offset by the reduction of equipment maintenance capacity.

To sum up, the cost of styrene has moved down, the downstream demand has not improved significantly, the replenishment at the end of the month, the maintenance of the plant, and the mixing of air and air are expected to be slightly stronger in the short term.

1、 Formic acid price trend

(Figure: p-value curve of formic acid product)

2、 Market analysis

The formic acid market has risen recently. According to the data of the business club’s block list, as of March 23, the average quotation price of formic acid enterprises was 2650 yuan / ton, up 3.25% compared with last Tuesday (March 16), up 1.92% compared with February 23, and up 35.9% compared with the same period last year. Recently, the manufacturer’s shipping price has increased. According to the source of goods and market conditions, the dealers have increased to varying degrees, with an increase of about 100-200 yuan / ton. The downstream demand is fair, and the market transaction is orderly.

Upstream caustic soda, according to the monitoring data of the business community, as of March 23, the average price quoted by enterprises was 490 yuan / ton, up 1.55% compared with last Tuesday (March 16); upstream liquid ammonia, on March 24, the price of liquid ammonia in Shandong continued to rise, and today, some large factories in Shandong generally increased by 50 yuan / ton. Due to the shortage of goods in Hebei, the increase of local and external sales in Shandong, the current inventory pressure in this area At present, the mainstream market price in this area is 3500-3650 yuan / ton; upstream sulfuric acid, Shandong sulfuric acid market is temporarily stable on March 23; upstream methanol, Shandong methanol enterprise ex factory quotation is stable on March 23, Anhui methanol market shocks upward, Shanxi methanol market is higher, Lianghu methanol market is lower, Liaoning methanol market is lower The methanol market went down, and the methanol market in Henan rose in a narrow range.

3、 Future forecast

Business community formic acid analysts believe that in the near future, the price of raw materials is stable and relatively strong, and the market trading atmosphere is acceptable, which will boost the market mentality. It is expected that in the short term, the formic acid market may be stable and rising, so more attention should be paid to the market information guidance.

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, this week (3.15-3.21), the market of methane chloride in Shandong fell. As of March 21, the average price of dichloromethane in Shandong was about 3800 yuan / ton, 2.65% lower than 3903 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week; the average price of Trichloromethane was about 4083 yuan / ton, 4.52% lower than 4276 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

This week, there was little pressure on the spot inventory of methane chloride in Shandong. The starting load of some enterprises in Zhongyue and Dongyue was not high, and the starting load in Luxi was about 90%. The overall market supply was still moderately tight. However, on the one hand, the price of liquid chlorine dropped sharply. This week, the main outflow factory price of liquid chlorine from tank cars in Shandong fell from 1900 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1500 yuan / ton at the end of the week, which was negative on the cost side Strong. On the other hand, the early high price makes the downstream procurement conflict, high price shipping is not smooth, the enterprise moderately adjust the quotation.

This week, international crude oil fell for several consecutive days, with a sharp drop on the 18th. The WTI contract in April once fell below $59 / barrel, which was negative for commodities on the cost side. Methanol market quotation also fell sharply. According to the monitoring of business news agency, methanol price was 2427 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 2327 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an overall decline of 4.12%.

Business community methane chloride data analysts believe that, at present, the inventory pressure of methane chloride production enterprises in Shandong is not big, but the recent cost side is empty, and the price of methane chloride is expected to drop slightly in a short time.

1、 Price trend

The comprehensive price of potassium chloride was temporarily stable this week. The average price of potassium chloride mainstream comprehensive quotation this week is 2250.00 yuan / ton. Overall, this week’s potassium chloride market temporarily stable, March 19 potassium chloride commodity index was 71.43.

2、 Market analysis

This week’s quotation of potassium chloride mainstream manufacturers is temporarily stable: Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride weekend ex factory quotation is 2100 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the week, the quotation is temporarily stable; Anhui Badou potassium chloride weekend distribution quotation is 2400 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the week, the quotation is temporarily stable. The actual turnover of potassium chloride market this week is not good. On the whole, the main contradiction of the market is that supply exceeds demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, downstream purchasing is just in demand, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic potassium chloride market is stable.

3、 Future forecast

In late March, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate slightly. The KCl market is facing the pressure of three big mountains, namely, Hong Kong’s large stock, weak demand and downward international prices. Therefore, the main contradiction in the current market is that supply exceeds demand. KCl analysts of business society believe that under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects of the short-term KCl market, the KCl market may be dominated by high consolidation.

On March 18, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States fell sharply, with the settlement price of the main contract at US $60.06/barrel, down 4.57 US dollars or 7.07%. Brent crude oil futures market prices fell sharply, the settlement price of the main contract at 63.03 U.S. dollars / barrel, down 4.97 U.S. dollars or 7.30%. WTI and Brent oil prices both fell by more than 7% on Thursday. At present, they have fallen for five consecutive trading days, mainly due to the slowdown of vaccination in Europe, which depresses the momentum of economic recovery, as well as the strong US dollar, the increase of US crude oil inventory, and the added disturbance of bad news such as tense relations between the US and Russia.

According to business news agency monitoring, oil prices have been falling for five consecutive trading days. At the macro level, due to the release of water from the Federal Reserve and central banks, inflation expectations continued to rise, US bond yields rose, and the prices of risky assets such as stock markets and commodities were suppressed. On Thursday, the market’s expectation of inflation intensified, and the US bond selling wave hit. The yield of 10-year US bonds rose above 1.7% for the first time in 14 months. The strength of the US dollar affected the decline of the stock index, and the oil price also fell sharply. WTI and Brent crude oil fell to two-week lows one after another. WTI closed below US $60, and WTI crude oil hit the biggest one-day decline in the second half of the year.

In addition, the pace of global economic recovery was once again dragged down by the epidemic, this time mainly from the European region. The European vaccination process was blocked, which led to the expectation of a slowdown in economic recovery and the suppression of oil prices. New cases in Europe continue to rise, especially in Germany and France, which have become the hardest hit areas. Some major economies restart restrictive measures. This is mainly due to the slowing down of vaccination. The market is generally worried about the side effects of AstraZeneca vaccine, and the vaccination plan is stagnant. According to reports, 17504 people were newly diagnosed with new coronavirus in Germany on the 18th, a new high in the past two months; Poland and Italy are also implementing strict blockade measures; French Prime Minister kastai also said that France is experiencing the third wave of epidemic. All kinds of signs show that the epidemic situation in Europe is not optimistic, which has seriously hindered the process of economic recovery.

The continuous recovery of crude oil stocks also brought pressure on oil prices. U.S. crude oil and refined oil stocks rose again. According to the inventory data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday, U.S. crude oil stocks increased, while gasoline and distillate stocks also increased. U.S. crude oil stocks increased by 2.396 million barrels to 5.0079 billion barrels, and U.S. gasoline stocks increased by 472 million barrels to 2.32075 million barrels The increase in gasoline inventory was mainly affected by the recovery of us refinery operation rate and the lower than expected demand growth.

The supply side of oil prices is also at risk. Recently, the tense relationship between the United States and Russia has intensified the market’s worry, mainly because the US published a report on Russia’s intervention in the US general election, which has intensified the relationship between the two countries. At the same time, Russia recalled its ambassador to the US, and the US threatened to sanction Russia. The market is generally worried about Russia’s retaliation, because the main measure may be to increase crude oil production To crack down on American shale oil. Tensions between the two countries also put downward pressure on oil prices.

According to the business news agency, the recent continuous drop in oil prices and the concentrated release of bad news in the market may only be temporary in the short term, and the process of market recovery remains unchanged. The main risk factor of supply and demand lies in the relationship between the United States and Russia. The policy of controlling production in the later period of OPEC may also be restricted by this. In the near future, there may be many factors disturbing the oil price, and the amplitude will increase. In the long run, economic recovery is still good for oil prices.

Domestic price trend:

It can be seen from the PX trend chart that the PX price trend is stable this week. As of the end of the week, the domestic PX ex factory price is 6700 yuan / ton, which is the same as that at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 21.82%. The PX external price trend is volatile this week, and the domestic PX market is highly dependent on foreign countries. The external price volatility has a certain positive impact on domestic prices.

In recent years, the domestic PX operation rate is more than 60%. Sinopec Hongrun Petrochemical 600000 ton unit operates stably, Yangzi petrochemical unit operates stably, Pengzhou petrochemical unit operates stably, Yangzi Petrochemical PX unit operates normally, Jinling Petrochemical unit operates stably, Qingdao Lidong unit operates at full load, Qilu petrochemical unit operates stably, and Urumqi petrochemical unit starts at about 50% The supply of xylene is general, but there are many overhauls of overseas units, and the domestic price trend of p-xylene remains high. The recent international crude oil price trend is volatile, and the PX external price has little change. As of the 18th, the closing prices in Asia are 818-820 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 836-838 US dollars / ton CFR China. The recent operating rate of PX unit in Asia has little change. As a whole, the operating rate of PX unit in Asia is less than 60%, the supply of PX in Asia is general, and the PX external closing price has little change, which is affected by the external factors The domestic market price of p-xylene was affected by the market price.

Recently, the oil price continued to decline, and the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States fell sharply. The settlement price of the main contract was at US $60.06/barrel, down by US $4.57 or 7.07%. Brent crude oil futures market prices fell sharply, the settlement price of the main contract at 63.03 U.S. dollars / barrel, down 4.97 U.S. dollars or 7.30%. WTI and Brent oil prices both fell by more than 7% on Thursday. At present, they have fallen for five consecutive trading days, mainly due to the slowdown of vaccination in Europe, which depresses the momentum of economic recovery, as well as the strong US dollar, the increase of US crude oil inventory, and the added disturbance of bad news such as tense relations between the US and Russia. In the short term, the slowdown of vaccination in Europe may be only temporary, and the process of market recovery remains unchanged. Crude oil prices fell sharply, which was bad for the domestic petrochemical market, and the price trend of domestic p-xylene was temporarily stable.

In the near future, the price trend of PTA Market in the downstream is temporarily stable, and the domestic PTA spot market is volatile. As of the 19th, the average price of PTA market is 4450-4500 yuan / ton, and the price trend is stable this week. PTA supply continues to be at a high level. Due to limited maintenance efforts, the operation rate of domestic PTA plant is about 79%. The terminal market returned to work in an orderly manner after the festival. As of March 18, the comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang areas had increased to more than 84%. The downstream market was cautious and there were many inquiries, but the “order” was still hesitant, and the orders had not significantly improved. The price trend of downstream PTA is stable, which has a certain positive support for the price of upstream PX market, and the price trend of PX market is temporarily stable.

Chen Ling, PX analyst of business news agency, believes that the current cost side is lower, and the short-term crude oil price may decline, but the downstream PTA product maintenance device may increase, and it is expected that the market price of p-xylene may remain stable in the later period.

1、 Price trend of epichlorohydrin

(Figure: curve of P value of epichlorohydrin product)

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the average price of epichlorohydrin enterprises as of March 16 was 11966.67 yuan / ton, up 2.28% compared with the price of last Monday (March 8), 9.79% higher than that on February 16, and 0.28% year-on-year in three months

Recently, the market of epichlorohydrin is not strong, and the offer is stable. Recently, propylene raw materials are in upward trend, with high cost pressure. The stockholders have been up and offer, and the market is lower and lower, but the downstream follow-up is insufficient. The market just needs small single investment, supply-demand game and market arrangement upward.

Upstream propylene, March 16, the propylene market price in Shandong region was roughly stable. According to the price map of business agency, affected by upstream and downstream, propylene prices rose repeatedly in the second half of February, which was at a high level for many years. At the beginning of the month, it was stable. On the 4th, the price began to decline, and the price rose generally on the 8th. The price rose 150-250 yuan / ton in two days. After that, the price was generally stable. On the 12th day, the price rose by about 50 yuan / ton again, and the price continued to rise 50 yuan / ton on the 15th. Today, the price is stable The current market transaction is between 8500-8650 yuan / ton, with the mainstream price of about 8550 yuan / ton.

Downstream epoxy resin, on March 16, the liquid epoxy resin in East China negotiated high-level finishing and operation, and the main negotiation offer remained at 31500-32000 yuan / ton, and the factory mainly delivered orders.

3、 Post market forecast

According to the epichlorohydrin analyst of business society, the raw material price is high in the near future, the downstream just needs to receive the bill mainly, the buying enthusiasm is general, the market continues to play games, but under the support of the strong cost side, it is expected that in the short term, the epichlorohydrin market will be held up, and more attention should be paid to the market interest consumption guidance.

The upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid prices remained stable at a high level, while the aluminum fluoride market was short of positive news stimulation, and the overall price remained stable. According to the data of business news agency, the domestic price of aluminum fluoride was 9033 yuan / ton on March 16, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week.

The price of raw material fluorite is 2761.11 yuan / ton, and the price trend of fluorite remains high. Recently, some fluorite plants in China are generally started, and some mines and flotation plants in the plant are shut down. The supply of fluorite in the plant is tight. However, the downstream market is stable in the near future, and the rise of fluorite price is limited. Due to the normal supply on the floor, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market rose slightly. As of the 15th, the quotation of hydrofluoric acid market was 10611.11 yuan / ton. In the near future, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market was mainly stable. The operating rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid was less than 60%. The enterprises reflected that the supply of hydrofluoric acid spot goods on the floor was normal, the market of goods on the floor was general recently, and the ex factory price of some enterprises was stable.

At present, the aluminum fluoride industry as a whole has sufficient cash, and the inventory of downstream electrolytic aluminum plants remains high, so the demand for aluminum fluoride bidding procurement is general. However, the willingness to support the price of aluminum fluoride is obvious, and the price of aluminum fluoride is stable.

Aluminum fluoride industry analysts of business news agency believe that: the prices of upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid remain stable at a high level, and the aluminum fluoride market lacks the stimulation of good news. It is expected that the domestic aluminum fluoride market prices will continue to consolidate.