According to the data monitored by the business society (the average price of SG5 by the calcium carbide method), the average price of domestic PVC mainstream on May 20 was 9250 yuan / ton, down 0.14% from the previous day, up 3.07% and 54.47% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

On May 20, futures prices fell, driving the spot market price to explore, and the firm’s offer was loose, mainly adjusted in a narrow range of 50-150 yuan / ton, but the overall downward range of the market was not large, the actual inventory of the holders made profit, and the spot price was shipped, and the price remained high. At present, under the guidance of macro policy, nearly 100 raw materials prices collectively “dive”, the market gradually returns to rationality, the price of PVC futures has declined sharply, and the price of PVC futures has fallen sharply, and the price of PVC spot market has declined due to the negative factors such as the low price transaction and export reduction. However, the maintenance equipment in May is concentrated, the loss is large, the supply side is expected to tighten, and the downstream demand remains supported, The positive factors are still in, so PVC is not easy to fall deeply, rational callback should not be too pessimistic.

In spot, the main quotation range of pvc5 type electric stone is mainly 9150-9400 yuan / ton. The pvc5 type electric stone area in Hangzhou area is 9150-9200 yuan / ton; The main stream of pvc5 electric stone in Changzhou area is 9200-9300 yuan / ton; The main price of PVC common electrical stone in Guangzhou is 9300-9380 yuan / ton; Local market prices fell.

In futures, the sharp downward price drives the spot price trend. On May 20, the opening price of v2109 contract: 9005, the highest price: 9010, the lowest price: 8755, the position volume: 383126, the settlement price: 8870, yesterday’s settlement: 9115, and the decline of 245.

region varieties technology May 20 remarks

East China PVC Calcium carbide process 9200-9300 yuan / ton Delivery

south China PVC Calcium carbide process 9200-9370 yuan / ton Delivery

North China PVC Calcium carbide process 9130-9230 yuan / ton To

southwest PVC Calcium carbide process 9250-9400 yuan / ton To

International crude oil, on May 20, continued to decline, and has fallen for three days. The settlement price of the main contract in the WTI crude oil futures market in the United States reported $61.94 / barrel, or 1.41 US dollars or 2.2%. The settlement price of the main contract in Brent crude oil futures market was $65.11 / barrel, down $1.55 or 2.3%, mainly due to the new progress made in the US Iraq nuclear negotiations, the market supply is expected to increase significantly, and the epidemic in India has hindered the pace of demand recovery.

Ethylene, recently, the price of ethylene external market fell, the price on May 20 was USD 1175.25/t, the average price of ethylene on May 20 was 1163.25 USD / T, down 1.02%, and the current price fell 2.06% on a month basis, and the current price rose 119.38% year on year. Current crude oil: the market is optimistic that Iran may increase crude oil production significantly in the fourth quarter, with oil prices falling continuously and cost support is not good, so business agency data analysts expect the following main price falls in the next external market.

The factory price of the northwest carbide is stable on May 20, and the reference price of the carbide is 4733.33. Compared with the price of 4550.00 on May 1, it is up 4.03%. The price of raw materials, orchid carbon, has risen sharply, and the cost of calcium carbide is well supported. Downstream PVC market recently high consolidation, downstream customers to calcium carbide procurement enthusiasm. The electricity market in the back market rose slightly.

3、 Post market forecast

PVC analysts of business agency believe that, under the guidance of macro policy, the market gradually returns to rationality, the market is weak, and the high price transaction is not smooth, and other negative factors, which lead to the price decline of PVC market. However, the supply side is expected to tighten, and downstream demand remains supported, so PVC is not easy to fall deeply. The PVC market is expected to continue to decline in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business news agency, the average price of PS (GPPS 525) was 10733 yuan / ton at the beginning of this week, and 10800 yuan / ton at the end of this week, with an increase of 0.62% and 37.78% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

The upstream styrene was weakened by shock. In addition, after the May Day festival, ordinary benzene accumulated a certain profit, and the market allowed profits to ship, so the focus of negotiation was lower. Styrene stopped falling and rebounded. There was not much supply of ordinary transparent benzene, which led to a large increase. The price change of modified benzene and high-end materials was limited, and the local trading was slightly better. However, the buying resistance to the high, commodity futures fell, PS prices softened.

At present, in Yuyao market, the price of benzene is 11150-12700 yuan / ton, and the price of benzene is 13550-14850 yuan / ton. The high cost of PS, the high restocking rate of merchants and the low operating rate in the year have certain support for the price.

3、 Future forecast

The terminal insists that it just needs to take the goods, and some bulk goods are delivered at a profit margin. It is expected that the PS market will consolidate at a high level next week.

On May 19, international oil prices fell sharply, with the settlement price of main contracts in WTI crude oil futures market of the United States at $63.35/barrel, or 2.15 US dollars or 3.3%. The settlement price of the main contract in Brent crude oil futures market was $66.66 / barrel, down $2.05 or 3.0%. Although the EIA inventory data released on Wednesday was positive, the market was worried that the surge in New Asian crown cases would further depress crude oil demand and release supply increase expectations of new progress in the us Iraq nuclear agreement; In addition, the probability that US inflation has triggered an increase in the Fed’s interest rate, with oil prices falling more than 3 per cent.

Recently, the oil market has a strong atmosphere of air and interest. Previously, media leaked news. The US and Iran returned to the negotiating table in terms of restarting the Iran nuclear agreement. Affected by this, oil prices fell on Tuesday. The latest news shows that Iranian President Rohani said publicly on 19 that significant progress has been made in the talks between the parties to the comprehensive agreement on Iran’s nuclear issue, which is being held in Vienna, Austria. If the agreement is reached, Iran may bring an additional oil supply of 1-2 million barrels / day to the market, which is expected to put a lot of pressure on the market.

In addition, the more important factor to promote the continuous decline of oil prices is the concern of the epidemic. The increasing number of pneumonia cases in Asia continues to surge. The current situation in India is even more worrying about the market, which may have a negative impact on India’s energy demand for a long time, and the demand caused by chain reaction such as enterprise failure can be plummeted in the later period.

In addition, the current inflation expectations, the market for the Fed’s increased probability of interest rate increases, also pressure on oil prices. Although at the April interest rate meeting, Fed chairman Powell said he would not raise interest rates for the time being, but the minutes of April meeting released by the Federal Reserve yesterday (local time 19) showed that some officials acknowledged the risk of inflation upward and suggested that discussions on reducing QE should be considered. This has led to further market bearish sentiment.

On Wednesday, the US crude oil inventory data was positive. The commercial crude oil inventory data released by the EIA showed that as of the week of May 14, the U.S. crude oil inventory increased by 1.32 million barrels to 486.11 million barrels, with the market forecast to increase 1.6 million barrels, lower than the market expectation. The decrease in gasoline and distillate stocks was greater than expected, with the stock of distillates, including diesel and heating oil, down 23.24 million barrels to 132.95 million barrels, and the market forecast was 386000 barrels lower. From this point of view, market demand is still improving, but the focus of the market is still on the epidemic situation and the outcome of the US Iraq nuclear negotiations.

Crude oil analysts of the business agency believe that the recent oil market’s negative news is diffuse, and the market mainly focuses on the progress of the US Iraq nuclear agreement, which has triggered a long panic, which is an uncertain negative factor, and the oil price will be more volatile in the near future. In addition, the trend of the epidemic in India and other Asian countries is determined, and oil prices will still be suppressed in the medium term. But at present, the global economic recovery is still in progress, the US and Europe economies continue to recover, and China is also optimistic. In the long term, oil prices are still positive.

On May 19, the styrene market as a whole declined slightly. Crude oil fell, while benzene and ethylene fell. Night market styrene weakness falls, has the suppression to the day opening. Although the supply of domestic styrene has increased, the inventory of the spot terminal is low, and the spot supply is tight. In the downstream, the three downstream prices are temporarily stable, and the demand is still low. However, the profit of the factory turns better, the demand for purchasing just needs increases, and the market is short of gas. To sum up, the cost of styrene is well supported. In the short term, the terminal will continue to go to the warehouse, and the inventory will remain low. The volume of tradable trade will be small, and the downstream demand will be temporarily stable. It is expected that the styrene market will still be in the shock consolidation stage after the rapid rise and fall in the short term.

Today, the price of styrene in Shandong was lowered to around 10600-10700 yuan / ton. The price is around 10650-10700 yuan / ton in Northeast China and 10750 yuan / ton in South China.

Price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the comprehensive price of hydrochloric acid in Shandong Province is temporarily stable this week, with the quoted price of 226.67 yuan / ton. Overall, the hydrochloric acid market is stable this week, with the hydrochloric acid commodity index at 59.65 on May 14.

quotations analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, this week’s hydrochloric acid Market manufacturer’s quotation is temporarily stable, the overall market is general. The quotation of Dezhou Shihua hydrochloric acid is 600 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable; At the end of the week, the price of synthetic hydrochloric acid from Wenshui was 230 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; The quotation of Jinan Yuanfei hydrochloric acid at the weekend is 300 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; At the end of the week, Dezhou Maihua hydrochloric acid quoted 150 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chain of hydrochloric acid, the market of liquid chlorine in the upstream is general, which gives weak support to hydrochloric acid, while the market prices of silica and ammonium chloride in the downstream are high, which has a positive impact on hydrochloric acid. Hydrochloric acid market as a whole looks stable this week, hydrochloric acid shipment is still a big problem.

Future forecast

Upstream liquid chlorine Market in the near future general, downstream silica, ammonium chloride market high consolidation. Business community analysts believe that hydrochloric acid in the recent small shocks.

Trade name: sulfuric acid

Latest price (May 17): 573.33 yuan / ton

On May 17, the market price of sulfuric acid in Shandong fell by 26.67 yuan / ton, or 4.44%, compared with the quoted price on May 14. From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chain, the sulfur market in the upstream has recently been consolidated at a high level, with weak rise and general cost support. However, the downstream formic acid and isopropanol markets fell slightly, while the price of hydrofluoric acid fell significantly, which had a negative impact on the price of sulfuric acid on the whole.

Recently, the market price of sulfuric acid in Shandong may fluctuate slightly, and the average quotation price is about 550 yuan / ton.

Domestic price trend:

From the trend chart of p-xylene, it can be seen that the price of p-xylene remained stable this week. As of the 14th, the domestic ex factory price of p-xylene was 6400 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 60%. The price trend of domestic PX market this week was stable.

In recent years, the domestic supply of p-xylene is normal, and the domestic PX operating rate is more than 60%. The 600000 ton unit of Sinopec Hongrun Petrochemical Co., Ltd. operates stably, the Yangzi petrochemical unit operates stably, the Pengzhou petrochemical unit operates stably, the Yangzi Petrochemical PX unit operates normally, the Jinling Petrochemical Unit operates stably, the Qingdao Lidong unit operates at full load, and the Qilu petrochemical unit operates stably, The start-up of Urumqi petrochemical plant is about 50%. The domestic supply of p-xylene is general, but there are many overhauls of overseas plants. The domestic price of p-xylene is affected and the trend remains high. Recently, the international crude oil price closed down, and the PX external price trend was temporarily stable. As of the 13th, the closing prices in Asia were 860-862 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 878-880 US dollars / ton CFR China. In recent years, the operating rate of PX unit in Asia had little change. Overall, the operating rate of PX unit in Asia was less than 60%, the supply of PX in Asia was general, and the PX external closing price was temporarily stable, Affected by the external price, the price trend of domestic p-xylene market is temporarily stable.

The price of crude oil fell this week. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States was 63.82 US dollars / barrel, and that of Brent crude oil futures market was 67.05 US dollars / barrel. On Thursday, the price of crude oil plummeted by more than 3%, mainly due to the severe epidemic situation in India, which rekindled the market’s worry, and the network attack caused the U.S. fuel pipeline unable to operate to resume operation, Rising inflation expectations in the United States and concerns about the Fed’s interest rate hike also pushed the pause button for the rise in oil prices. Crude oil prices fell sharply this week, while domestic petrochemical products prices of likong were affected, and the price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable.

This week, the price trend of PTA Market in the lower reaches fell sharply, and the domestic PTA spot market fell. As of the 14th, the average price of PTA market was 4650-4700 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 4.09% this week. The international crude oil price is lower and the cost support is poor. In the near future, the PTA plant has been overhauled and restarted, and the supply side has increased. In the middle of May, the PTA operation rate was about 79%, the PTA delivery situation was general, and the price was high. Polyester production and sales fell again, European and American epidemic counterattack and Xinjiang cotton products export pressure is still large, follow-up orders weak. The profits of domestic textile industry are concentrated in the spinning process. The lower reaches of the textile industry do not have a high acceptance of the fabric price rise, and the price transmission is not smooth. There is downward pressure on the yarn price, which may further affect the price performance of the raw material end. Recently, the domestic PTA market price has fallen sharply, and the downstream market is not good, which has a negative impact on the PX market.

Chen Ling, PX analyst of business news agency, believes that there is certain uncertainty in the current cost side. In the short term, the crude oil price will remain high and volatile, but the PTA and textile market in the downstream have a downward trend. It is expected that the market price of p-xylene will be stable in the future, but there is no lack of possibility of a downward trend.

Ethylene oxide remained stable this week. The ex factory price of ethylene oxide is 7700 yuan / ton.

Affected by the epidemic in India and the restart of oil pipelines in the United States, oil prices continued to fall. In the ethylene plant, Sinopec Beijing Yanshan Petrochemical is currently in shutdown and plans to restart the cracking unit before the middle of May 2021; Lotte chemical plans to carry out the planned shutdown and maintenance in mid May 2021 for about 35-40 days. The price of ethylene is stable after a slight rise. At present, the latest price of Northeast Asia ethylene is stable, with the quoted price of 1150 US dollars / ton, Jinshan United trade ethylene price of 8300 yuan, and Luxi Chemical ethylene price of 8280 yuan / ton.

Satellite Petrochemical line 1 has also been shipped during May 1, and line 2 is planned to start next week. Sinopec’s load has also increased slightly. At present, except for Sinopec and satellite Petrochemical’s ethane to ethylene plants, other private enterprises’ epoxy plants are close to the cost line. Although the market supply side is relatively abundant, the downstream construction situation is gradually improving, and the number of monomer inquiry is increasing, Monomer manufacturers have the intention to pull up, and the market mentality is enhanced.

At present, the cost support is strong, but due to the market downturn in the early stage, the manufacturer’s inventory is under pressure. It will take some time to digest the inventory in the early stage, and the market is expected to be stable.

On the one hand, the international oil price continued to improve. Although it experienced a slight drop in a few days, it soon stood at the high level in the previous year again, which significantly supported the prices of major domestic chemical commodities. On the other hand, affected by the factors of replenishment after the festival, the market consumption expectation increased and the market inquiry increased significantly, which had a pulling effect on all products. At the same time, affected by the continuous rise of pure benzene Market during the holiday period and the continuous tight supply, the crude benzene industry chain showed an eye-catching performance. According to the commodity prices monitored by the business agency, crude benzene rose by 18.08% and hydrogenated benzene by 14.29% in less than half a month from April 30 to May 13.

Since the end of April, crude oil prices have been supported by a high level. During the festival, pure benzene supply in Europe and the United States continues to be tight. The window of external market soaring and Asian arbitrage has opened. Pure benzene in Asia is exported to Europe and the United States, while domestic imports are reduced, and spot supply continues to be tight. Sinopec has frequently raised the ex factory price of pure benzene since the end of April. As of May 12, it has raised the ex factory price of pure benzene four times, with a cumulative increase of 900 yuan / ton. At present, the ex factory price of pure benzene of Sinopec is 8200 yuan / ton, and that of Qilu Petrochemical is 8150 yuan / ton.

Affected by the 51 small and long holidays, most of the crude benzene enterprises still implement the bidding price on April 28 before the festival for a long time after the festival. After a new round of bidding started on May 12, the crude benzene price rose sharply, the mainstream manufacturers in Shandong increased by 860 yuan / ton, and the profit of hydrobenzene began to shrink. In terms of coking enterprises, the overall profit is good at present. The environmental protection and production reduction policy in Shanxi Province has been gradually relaxed since May. The local coking enterprises have started to recover gradually. The enterprises start to work actively, and the crude benzene supply is relatively stable.

In terms of downstream demand, as of May 12, the overall operating rate of domestic hydrogenated benzene enterprises was about 68%. At present, the prices of hydrogenated benzene and pure benzene are at a high level, and they return to the high level of 8000 after four years. The profits of enterprises have improved, the manufacturers are active in production, and some units have plans to restart. At present, the demand for crude benzene is good. However, the high price of crude benzene has reduced the profit margin of hydrogenated benzene, and hydrogenated benzene manufacturers have a strong price support mentality.

In the future, the business community thinks that the downstream styrene price fluctuates frequently, pure benzene and hydrogenated benzene are at the high level in the past four years, and the market needs time to digest the recent increase. It is expected that the crude benzene industry chain commodity will run at a high price in the short term, and the driving force will be insufficient.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business news agency’s block list, the overall price of toluene rose slightly this week. On April 30, the price of toluene was 5697 yuan / ton; On Sunday (May 9), the price was 5902 yuan / ton, up 205 yuan / ton or 3.6% from last week; It was 68.63% higher than that of the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

Supported by the price rise of related aromatic products, toluene market was active after the festival. Sinopec’s Toluene listing price continued to rise, and the bottom support strengthened. However, the downstream demand follow-up is general, and the gasoline blending rise lacks sustainability, which limits the toluene rise. In terms of external market, as of May 7, the price of imported toluene from South Korea was 760 US dollars / ton, up 35 US dollars / ton, or 4.83%, from April 30; The price of imported toluene in East China was 780 US dollars / ton, up 35 US dollars / ton, or 4.7%, on April 30.

In terms of crude oil, good news: within the week, OPEC + kept the policy of gradually increasing production unchanged, and the energy demand in Europe and the United States improved to support the market. Bad news: the epidemic situation in India is severe, and the recovery of crude oil demand is full of uncertainty. On April 30, Brent rose $1.775/barrel, or 2.65%; WTI rose $1.4 per barrel, or 2.21%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, East China’s TDI fell in a weak position, with domestic goods at 14766.67 yuan / ton, down 5.74% from last week and up 47.67% from the same period last year.

In the PX market, the domestic PX price remained stable, at 6400 yuan / ton, up 60% year on year. As of May 7, the closing prices in Asia were US $859-861 / T FOB Korea and US $877-879 / T CFR China.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery of the industrial chain, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, and the progress of the fiscal stimulus plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

The external support and the bottom support of Sinopec’s listing price are strong, and the short-term trend of toluene is expected to be still strong. We will continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil and gasoline blending price trend, toluene plant maintenance trends, toluene’s late arrival in Hong Kong and downstream demand changes on toluene price.