On May 19, international oil prices fell sharply, with the settlement price of main contracts in WTI crude oil futures market of the United States at $63.35/barrel, or 2.15 US dollars or 3.3%. The settlement price of the main contract in Brent crude oil futures market was $66.66 / barrel, down $2.05 or 3.0%. Although the EIA inventory data released on Wednesday was positive, the market was worried that the surge in New Asian crown cases would further depress crude oil demand and release supply increase expectations of new progress in the us Iraq nuclear agreement; In addition, the probability that US inflation has triggered an increase in the Fed’s interest rate, with oil prices falling more than 3 per cent.

Recently, the oil market has a strong atmosphere of air and interest. Previously, media leaked news. The US and Iran returned to the negotiating table in terms of restarting the Iran nuclear agreement. Affected by this, oil prices fell on Tuesday. The latest news shows that Iranian President Rohani said publicly on 19 that significant progress has been made in the talks between the parties to the comprehensive agreement on Iran’s nuclear issue, which is being held in Vienna, Austria. If the agreement is reached, Iran may bring an additional oil supply of 1-2 million barrels / day to the market, which is expected to put a lot of pressure on the market.

In addition, the more important factor to promote the continuous decline of oil prices is the concern of the epidemic. The increasing number of pneumonia cases in Asia continues to surge. The current situation in India is even more worrying about the market, which may have a negative impact on India’s energy demand for a long time, and the demand caused by chain reaction such as enterprise failure can be plummeted in the later period.

In addition, the current inflation expectations, the market for the Fed’s increased probability of interest rate increases, also pressure on oil prices. Although at the April interest rate meeting, Fed chairman Powell said he would not raise interest rates for the time being, but the minutes of April meeting released by the Federal Reserve yesterday (local time 19) showed that some officials acknowledged the risk of inflation upward and suggested that discussions on reducing QE should be considered. This has led to further market bearish sentiment.

On Wednesday, the US crude oil inventory data was positive. The commercial crude oil inventory data released by the EIA showed that as of the week of May 14, the U.S. crude oil inventory increased by 1.32 million barrels to 486.11 million barrels, with the market forecast to increase 1.6 million barrels, lower than the market expectation. The decrease in gasoline and distillate stocks was greater than expected, with the stock of distillates, including diesel and heating oil, down 23.24 million barrels to 132.95 million barrels, and the market forecast was 386000 barrels lower. From this point of view, market demand is still improving, but the focus of the market is still on the epidemic situation and the outcome of the US Iraq nuclear negotiations.

Crude oil analysts of the business agency believe that the recent oil market’s negative news is diffuse, and the market mainly focuses on the progress of the US Iraq nuclear agreement, which has triggered a long panic, which is an uncertain negative factor, and the oil price will be more volatile in the near future. In addition, the trend of the epidemic in India and other Asian countries is determined, and oil prices will still be suppressed in the medium term. But at present, the global economic recovery is still in progress, the US and Europe economies continue to recover, and China is also optimistic. In the long term, oil prices are still positive.