Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic ABS market generally rose in early February, and the spot prices of various brands increased. As of February 11, the average price of mainstream offer of general-purpose ABS was about 15000 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of + 2.74% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

Industrial chain: in terms of raw material styrene, Shandong styrene market fell after rising this week. The raw material pure benzene continued to rise and spit back, and the cost support was weakened, but it was still maintained. The styrene market took profits at high prices, superimposed the short-term supply increment after the festival, and the downstream is still in the stage of returning to work one after another, with insufficient spot transactions. In addition, some new styrene units have output, which is bad for the market.

The price of acrylonitrile was weak this week. The shipment of new equipment put into operation before the festival and the current operating rate of the industry was about 90%, which increased the supply and was bad for the spot market. The inventory of enterprises and society is high, the follow-up of downstream textile enterprises is not as expected, the business confidence is not strong, and the price is reduced.

The domestic butadiene market rose again this week. Boosted by the high prices of external market and some domestic suppliers, the mentality of merchants after the festival is relatively strong, but some downstream industries are affected by policies and have poor start-up, the demand recovery is less than expected, dragging the market transaction is not smooth, and the market focus is slightly weakened.

The overall upstream market of ABS rose and fell this week, with general cost support. In terms of industry load, after the festival, the operating rate of domestic ABS enterprises was high, the overall supply was high and the prognosis was abundant. The implementation of destocking in the industry before the festival was good, and the ex factory price of enterprises increased after the festival, but the buyers did not follow up after the rise. In terms of downstream demand, the current terminal enterprises are in the resumption stage, and the demand has not been fully launched. After the merchant’s offer rose, the shipping resistance increased, and the rise of ABS spot was blocked.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the ABS spot market generally rose in early February, and the upstream three material trends rose and fell respectively, which generally supports the cost side of ABS. Domestic spot prices are mainly affected by the high load and abundant supply of the industry. After the festival, the demand follow-up of terminal enterprises is not complete, the circulation of high price goods in the market is blocked, and the on-site trading is insufficient. It is expected that the ABS spot market may rise and callback in the short term.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic PA66 market continued to operate weakly in early February, and the spot prices of various brands fell. As of February 10, the average ex factory price of PA66 adhesive injection molding sample enterprises of business society was about 35750 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of – 0.69% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: upstream, the domestic adipic acid market continues to be favorable from the cost side, and the market trend increases greatly. The improvement of adiponitrile is limited. The loss of production capacity of large international factories and the shortage of overseas transportation capacity are still affecting the market. The overall supply is still tight, and the domestic production cost of PA66 is cited.

The upstream raw material adipic acid has increased, the supply of adiponitrile has limited changes, and the cost side support of PA66 is acceptable. In the recent period, the operating rate of the industry has increased compared with that before the festival, and the operating level of domestic PA66 industry has basically returned to normal. The inventory position in Hong Kong is not high, and the arrival volume of overseas goods is limited. In terms of demand, buyers’ follow-up after the festival is biased towards the just need to maintain production, and there is great resistance to the transaction of high price goods. The smoothness of goods flow in the yard is poor, the seller’s mentality is affected, and the offer makes profit.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the spot price of PA66 fell in early February. The shortage pattern of adiponitrile at the raw material end is still, and the adipic acid market continues to be strong. The load of PA66 enterprises is improved, and the support of the supply side to the spot is weakened. Downstream users have a deep resistance to the supply of high price goods. In addition, the demand after the festival has not been fully launched, and the trading atmosphere on the floor is poor. It is expected that PA66 may maintain a stable and weak market in the near future.

Futures market: on February 9, the main pf futures contract closed at 7750, down 2.74% from yesterday’s settlement price, and the settlement price was 7798; The trading volume is 138525 hands; The position was 107212, the position decreased by 584, and the basis was 72. Polyester staple fiber futures closed down 77.4%, while domestic staple fiber futures fell by 27.4%.

Spot price: according to the price monitoring of business agency, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber spot market on February 9 was 7822 yuan / ton, up 4.04% from last week and 15.06% year-on-year.

Analysis: in terms of cost, the United States expressed its willingness to reach relevant agreements with Iran. Iran will supply more than 1 million barrels of oil to the market every day. The oil supply is expected to increase. Overnight, WTI New York crude oil CFD fell 2.04% to close below 90. During the Spring Festival of ethylene glycol, many units were restarted, and Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. was put into operation at the end of January, resulting in a significant increase in supply. In addition, many units have plans to be put into operation, and the long-term market supply pressure is large. In addition, the port arrival of ethylene glycol during the Spring Festival is smooth, and the port inventory is also improved. PTA’s stock accumulation increased in February, but its raw material PX was in short stock and the cost support was strong. After the staple fiber industry chain link, the increase is too high, but the downstream follow-up is slow, and the spot quotation of staple fiber is relatively stable.

Forecast: in the short term, in terms of raw materials, the international crude oil price is easy to rise but difficult to fall due to the geographical situation of Russia and Ukraine and the energy tension in Europe, and the short fiber cost side support is strong. In the future, staple fiber may still fluctuate with the cost price. Pay attention to the change of raw material price and the resumption of upstream and downstream work after the festival.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride rose sharply. As of August 8, the quotation of phthalic anhydride was 8500 yuan / ton. The on-site spot supply was normal and the sales situation was acceptable.

The domestic market price of phthalic anhydride has risen sharply, the delivery of phthalic anhydride in the market is normal, the downstream demand has not changed much recently, the price of upstream orthobenzene has risen, the plasticizer market has risen sharply, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride in the field is normal, and the market price of phthalic anhydride has risen sharply. There is little change in the operation of domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers. The operation rate of phthalic anhydride on the site is less than 60%. The domestic spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, the market price trend is rising, the market of downstream plasticizer industry is improving, and the actual transaction is normal. The market price of phthalic anhydride in East China is mainly rising, and the high-end transactions in the venue are limited. The mainstream of adjacent France source negotiation in East China is 8500-8600 yuan / ton, and the mainstream of naphthalene method source negotiation is 8300-8400 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 8400-8600 yuan / ton. The wait-and-see mentality of phthalic anhydride still exists in the field. The downstream is mainly purchased on demand. The recent orthobenzene market has risen, and the market price of phthalic anhydride is expected to continue to rise in the later stage.

In January, the domestic liquid ammonia market rose first and then fell, with an overall upward trend. The focus of trading in Shandong and Hebei moved up slightly. According to the monitoring of business agency, the main production area in Shandong increased by 0.76% this month. At the end of the month, the mainstream transaction price of liquid ammonia was 4000-4250 yuan / ton. Coal prices rebounded sharply and cost support was strong. In addition, after the new year’s day, market transportation recovered and manufacturers’ shipments rose, supporting the recovery of prices. However, the rainy and snowy weather in most parts of the north in the middle and late ten days led to an increase in manufacturers’ shipment pressure, especially in Shanxi. Before the Spring Festival, enterprises reduced inventories and prices fell steadily.

On the supply side, the overall supply of this month is better than that of last month, mainly due to the centralized procurement and preparation of goods in the downstream before the festival and the increase of enterprise ammonia, which is also the main reason to support the high price of liquid ammonia. The operating rate in the main production areas is generally high, and there are few device maintenance. The resumption of Anqing, Jincheng, Kaiyue, Fufeng, Jindadi and xinlianxin devices last month brought increment to the market. Market supply increased significantly. Sufficient supply is the main factor restricting ammonia price.

On the cost side, coal continued to rebound in January. Support the downstream liquid ammonia Market. At present, the price of liquid ammonia is still supported by the cost side, and the coal stopped falling and rebounded after the festival. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of January 20, thermal coal rose by more than 20%. Near the end of the year, due to the impact of safety inspection, the supply of thermal coal has been tightened, but the supply guarantee policy continues. On the whole, the supply is still relatively loose, the sales situation of producing areas has improved, and the coal price has increased after the reduction; In terms of ports, after new year’s day, downstream inquiry increased, market activity increased, and traders’ market sentiment improved.

On the demand side, the price of urea rose this month. According to the monitoring of business society, the increase was 3.61%. In January, part of the domestic compound fertilizer market rose steadily, the rigidity of urea was relatively strong, and the stronger prices of ammonium phosphate and potassium fertilizer supported the market cost and mentality; In addition, the price rise of some enterprises has promoted the gradual elimination of low-end goods in the market; Before the festival, dealers’ enthusiasm for centralized preparation and delivery increased, and the market atmosphere improved.

From the above figure, the price comparison chart of urea and liquid ammonia shows that the trend of liquid ammonia and urea is basically the same. Since January, the range between them has widened, mainly because the downstream urea is stronger than liquid ammonia.

Future forecast: the business society believes that the domestic compound fertilizer market is expected to continue to improve after the festival. The price may have a good performance, which will benefit the ammonia Market. Especially in the middle and late ten days, the market gradually returned to the market. Superimposed with the release of spring farming demand, it is expected that liquid ammonia may have some room for rise.

According to statistics, the domestic market price of ammonium nitrate rose in January. By the end of the month, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 4420 yuan / ton, up 11.62% from 3960 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 52.41% year-on-year.

In January, the domestic market price of ammonium nitrate rose sharply. The domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers operated stably. Recently, the supply of goods in the field was tight, the delivery situation in the field was supported, the manufacturer’s inventory was low, and the coal price in the upstream of the terminal changed little. In addition, the price of liquid ammonia increased slightly, which affected the price trend of ammonium nitrate. Recently, the shipment market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is normal, and the downstream nitro compound fertilizer is purchased on demand. Recently, the trend of downstream nitro compound fertilizer is stable, and the domestic downstream civil explosive industry still stops production. However, the civil explosive industry is in the peak demand season, the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers start work normally, and the price of ammonium nitrate Market is greatly affected. Up to now, the mainstream negotiation in Shaanxi is 4600-4800 yuan / ton, the mainstream negotiation in Shandong is 4400-4500 yuan / ton, and the price in Hebei is 4600-4700 yuan / ton.

The price trend of domestic concentrated nitric acid declined in January. By the end of the month, the average price of domestic nitric acid was 2200 yuan / ton, down 2.22% from 2250 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. Shaanxi Xinghua offers 2300 yuan / ton; Anhui Jinhe offers 2000 yuan / ton; Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Group offers 1650 yuan / ton. Recently, the operation of domestic nitric acid plants is stable, the supply of concentrated nitric acid market is normal, and the delivery of goods in the field is poor. In January, the price trend of nitric acid market declined slightly, and the price of raw nitric acid fell, which has a certain negative impact on the ammonium nitrate Market. The price of ammonium nitrate market rose due to tight supply.

The domestic market price of liquid ammonia in the upstream rose in January. As of the end of the month, the price of liquid ammonia was 4443.33 yuan / ton, up 0.76% from the price of 4410 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. The price of liquid ammonia rose slightly, mainly in Shandong and Hebei, and increased in East and North China due to the decline of ammonia. According to the monitoring of business agency, the weekly increase of liquid ammonia in Shandong was 0.38% by the end of the month. At present, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong is 4000-4300 yuan / ton. On the supply side, the operating rate of liquid ammonia is mainly stable, the ammonia volume in the main production areas of Shandong, Hebei and two lakes has little change, the price of liquid ammonia is stable, the ammonia release in North China, northwest and central China has decreased, and the price has mainly rebounded. The amount of ammonia released in Southwest China and Inner Mongolia increased slightly, and the price was weak and stabilized. The price rise of upstream liquid ammonia forms a certain positive support for the ammonium nitrate Market, and the market price trend of ammonium nitrate rises.

Recently, the number of holiday enterprises has gradually increased, and the market demand for ammonium nitrate is normal, but the raw material market price remains high, which has brought some positive support to the ammonium nitrate Market. Recently, the spot supply of ammonium nitrate Market is normal, and the ammonium nitrate analyst of business society believes that the market price of ammonium nitrate remains stable in the later stage.

441# silicon price trend

Near the end of the year, the metal silicon continued to fall in January. In the past few weeks, the silicon factory was in the stage of inventory cleaning and had a strong shipping mentality. Many traders even chose to reduce prices for shipping. By the middle of the year, the market trading atmosphere became lighter, and the silicon price continued to stabilize and operate in a weak position. As of the 26th, the national metal silicon quotation was 20790 yuan / ton, down 2.03% month on month.

On January 25, the metal silicon commodity index was 144.71, unchanged from yesterday, down 65.99% from the highest point of 425.46 in the cycle (2021-09-28), and up 110.43% from the lowest point of 68.77 on September 25, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Import and export data in December

According to the statistics of the General Administration of customs, China’s metal silicon export volume in December was 63191.14 tons, an increase of 5037.024 tons or 8.66% compared with 58154.116 tons in November, an increase of 6235.898 tons or 10.95% compared with 56955.242 tons in December 2020. From January to December 2021, China’s metal silicon exports totaled 777789.662 tons, an increase of 158545.306 tons or 25.60% over 619244.356 tons from January to December 2020.

In recent February, the export volume of metal silicon has gradually picked up. At present, the price of metal silicon has dropped to a relatively stable price level, and overseas orders have gradually increased. However, in January, the epidemic relapsed in many places in China, and some ports suspended freight operations. In addition, the Spring Festival holiday is approaching, the ocean going ships in the port basically stopped shipping in the middle of this month, and the export volume of metal silicon in January is expected to be less than that in December.

Downstream aspect

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of January 26, the average price of organosilicon DMC market in mainstream areas was 31660 yuan / ton, with a monthly cumulative increase of more than 25%, and the average price of aluminum alloy market was 20300-20500 yuan / ton. In the early stage, the supply of organosilicon DMC was seriously out of stock, coupled with the centralized preparation in the downstream, and the price continued to rise. In the later stage, most downstream organosilicon enterprises basically completed the preparation years ago. The aluminum alloy market must become popular and tend to be saturated, the demand slowed down, and the silicon factory mainly received the orders after the festival.

Future forecast

The weak and stable market of metal silicon in January is mainly subject to the market. At present, the market as a whole remains stable, the demand in the export market is weak, the export traders basically enter the closed state, the domestic market has also been closed and stopped selling, basically entering the closed state, and both supply and demand shrink simultaneously. It is estimated that the operating rate of metal silicon is not high after the year. Aluminum alloy is limited by the environmental protection of the Winter Olympics, and the demand is weak. In the first quarter, it is basically in the situation of both supply and demand. It is worth noting that silicone has a certain support for the price of silicon, and the price of metal silicon may be stable and strong after the festival.

This week, the domestic dimethyl ether market will return to the upward route again within the month, with the price mainly increased, and the price in Henan rose to 3700 yuan / ton. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 3653.33 yuan / ton on January 17 and 3720.00 yuan / ton on January 24, with an increase of 1.82% during the week and 3.91% compared with January 1.

As of January 24, the domestic market prices of dimethyl ether in various regions are as follows:

region Mainstream quotation

Jiangxi region 4140 yuan / ton

Hebei region 4140 yuan / ton

Henan region 3720-3750 yuan / ton

This week, the domestic dimethyl ether Market stopped falling and went up. The main production areas in Henan increased by 80-120 yuan / ton, and Hebei and Shandong also followed up to varying degrees. During the week, the raw material methanol market rose steadily, the cost support was acceptable, and the civil LPG market rose one after another driven by international crude oil, which brought some benefits to the dimethyl ether Market. In addition, the current market supply is not high. Near the Spring Festival, the downstream market replenishment is active, the manufacturer’s shipment is smooth, and the price rises one after another.

The focus of methanol market rose this week, and the market atmosphere stabilized after rising. The main contract of methanol futures rose strongly in the first half of the week against the background of strong macro, and the sale of methanol futures in the main production areas in the mainland was still stopped after the price rise; The main consumer markets are also normally outsourced due to the slow arrival speed, and the prices rise simultaneously. According to the monitoring data of business agency, from January 14 to January 21, 2022, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises increased from 2382 yuan / ton to 2507 yuan / ton. During the cycle, the price increased by 5.25%, the price decreased by 4.57% month on month, and the year-on-year increase was 7.39%.

At present, the market price of raw material methanol is strong, and the civil market of liquefied gas is mainly increased, which has brought good support to the market. Before the festival, the trading atmosphere in the market was good, the manufacturers shipped smoothly, the overall inventory was at a low level, and the mentality was relatively strong. It is expected that the price of dimethyl ether market will rise steadily in the short term.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of domestic potassium chloride is temporarily stable this week. This week, the factory quotation of domestic salt lake potassium chloride was 3190.00 yuan / ton, up 46.67% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The market price is about 3900-3950 yuan / ton. The domestic market price of imported potassium chloride increased slightly, and the quotation increased from 4250.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 4316.67 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 1.57%. Overall, the domestic potassium chloride market rose slightly this week. On January 23, the commodity index of potassium chloride (import) was 113.60, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 17.46% from the lowest point of 96.71 on September 16, 2021. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers increased slightly this week: the factory quotation of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride at the weekend was 3190 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with that at the weekend; Anhui Badou 62% Russian White potassium distribution quotation is 4300 yuan / ton, an increase of 100 yuan / ton compared with last weekend. Xiangyang youdeshi potassium chloride distribution quotation is 4300 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton compared with last weekend. Zibo Dehe potassium chloride distribution quotation is 4350 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend; The price of 62% white potassium in the port is about 4200-4300 yuan / ton. Border trade 62% Russian White potassium is about 4100 yuan / ton.

From the downstream market of potassium chloride, the ex factory price of potassium carbonate rose slightly this week. The quotation increased from 8166.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 8266.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.22%, an increase of 25.73% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The ex factory price of potassium nitrate rose slightly this week. The quotation increased from 5866.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 6033.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 2.84%, up 44.51% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. Overall, the downstream market of potassium chloride rose slightly, and the downstream demand for potassium chloride was good.

3、 Future forecast

In late January, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may rise slightly. The price of Salt Lake and zangge potassium chloride is stable and the volume is increasing in succession, but the market supply is still limited and the supply is tight. The winter storage market has started one after another, and traders take a small amount of goods. From the perspective of downstream demand, the downstream market of potassium chloride increased slightly, the downstream demand is good, and the just need to purchase is mainly. The news said that a large contract was about to be signed in the near future, boosting confidence. The international price of potash fertilizer is adjusted at a high level, and the domestic potash fertilizer is still likely to rise. Potassium chloride analysts of business society believe that the domestic potassium chloride price may fluctuate slightly in the short term, focusing on the news related to large contracts.

I Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business society, the average price of PS ordinary materials at the beginning of this week was 10066 yuan / ton, and the average price of PS ordinary materials at the weekend was 10100 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 0.33% and 14.77% compared with the same period of the year.

II quotations analysis

The focus of the domestic PS market increased by 90-300 yuan / ton. The rise of crude oil led to the strength of pure benzene and styrene, and the price of PS followed the rise. During the week, there was a high interest in low-level goods preparation in the downstream, as well as some short filling demand, and the transaction volume was phased. However, the shrinking volume of transactions after the market rose showed that buying was cautious. Small and medium-sized downstream factories have holidays one after another. At present, most of them are in demand for goods before the Spring Festival, resulting in tight supply of some goods.

On January 20, 2022, the price of benzene in East China market was 9650-10750 yuan / ton, the low-end chain rose 150 yuan / ton, and the high-end chain rose 250 yuan / ton.

III Future forecast

The rise of crude oil has raised costs and market expectations, but the pre Festival preparation of small and medium-sized downstream factories or their closing in succession, and the interest in receiving goods after the rising price may also be weakened. We pay attention to the operation dynamics of devices in the Spring Festival next week, and it is expected that the PS market will be consolidated next week.