According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic MTBE market rose first and then fell. As the crude oil price rose again, the willingness to purchase downstream increased. In addition, due to the maintenance of some factories, the market supply was limited, which supported businesses’ willingness to keep up. From December 9 to 16, the MTBE price rose from 6775 yuan/ton to 6837 yuan/ton. During the cycle, the price rose by 0.92%, and the price fell by 6.34% month on month and 18.30% year on year.

On the cost side, on December 15, international crude oil futures closed lower. The settlement price of the main contract of US WTI crude oil futures was 76.11 US dollars/barrel, down 1.17 US dollars or 1.5%. The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 81.21 dollars/barrel, down 1.49 dollars or 1.8%. Many central banks have raised interest rates and tightened policies, which have put pressure on risky assets. The risk of global economic recession increased, and the risk aversion made the oil market end its third consecutive rise, and the rebound lost momentum. On the whole, crude oil prices rose first and then fell this week, and the domestic oil industry chain MTBE product market was reorganized by the shock of the affected market.

On the demand side, the international crude oil futures price rebounded at a low level, the gasoline market in Shandong stopped falling and rose, and the optimization of epidemic control further promoted the improvement of gas station shipments in the retail market, and the refinery actively pushed prices when shipments improved. The light diesel market is difficult to improve. The weak demand in winter inhibits the purchase of middle and lower stream businesses. The refinery is still dominated by shipment volume. Gasoline sales turned to an upward trend, and its own sales improved gradually. MTBE demand as an additive followed the increase.

In terms of external market, as of the closing on December 15, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market had risen by 5.43 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and FOB Singapore closed at 829.82-831.82 US dollars/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market decreased by 58.00 dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at 896.49-896.99 dollars/ton. The closing price of MTBE market in the United States decreased by 27.55 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and FOB Gulf closed at 861.26-861.6 US dollars/ton (242.61-242.71 US cents/gallon).

It is predicted in the future that with the rise in the prices of various raw materials in the near future, the cost of downstream gasoline merchants has increased significantly, and the enthusiasm for purchasing high priced raw materials has decreased. In addition, two factories in some areas have resumed operation, increasing the market supply, but it is difficult to improve the demand, and the contradiction between supply and demand will reappear. MTBE analysts from the business agency believe that the domestic MTBE market may decline in the short term.

Recent price trend of isooctanol

As can be seen from the above figure, the factory price of isooctanol in Shandong Province rose slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream isooctanol manufacturers in Shandong increased from 9133.33 yuan/ton at the weekend to 9666.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, up 5.84%. A year-on-year decrease of 4.61%. On December 18, the isooctanol commodity index was 71.08, unchanged from yesterday, down 48.31% from the highest point of 137.50 (2021-08-08) in the cycle, and up 102.22% from the lowest point of 35.15 on February 1, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The upstream support is good, and the downstream demand increases

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the factory quotation of Shandong mainstream isooctanol manufacturers rose slightly this week.

From the perspective of the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market rose slightly this week, with the price rising from 7434.60 yuan/ton at the weekend to 7608.60 yuan/ton at the weekend, up 2.34%, down 2.35% year-on-year. The upstream raw material market price rose slightly, with good cost support. Affected by the supply and demand, it has a positive impact on the price of isooctanol.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the DOP factory price rose slightly this week. The DOP price rose from 9761.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 9960.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, an increase of 2.04% and 3.48% year-on-year. Downstream DOP prices rose slightly, and downstream customers actively increased their purchase of isooctanol.

Future outlook

In late December, the market of isooctanol in Shandong Province fell mainly due to slight fluctuations. The upstream propylene market fell slightly over the weekend, with insufficient cost support. Downstream DOP market declined slightly, and downstream demand weakened. According to the isooctanol analysts of the business community, the short-term domestic isooctanol market may fall slightly due to the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data list of the business cooperative, the price of thermal phosphoric acid market rose in a volatile manner this week. As of December 16, the average price of 85% industrial thermal phosphoric acid in China was 9333 yuan/ton, up 2.10% from the average price of 9141 yuan/ton on December 12.

Mainstream market:

As of December 16, the ex factory quotation of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan was about 9250 yuan/ton, that of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan was about 9300 yuan/ton, and that of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei was about 9600-9900 yuan/ton. The market quotation of 85 content WPA in Nanjing is about 9600 yuan/ton, and the factory quotation of 85 content WPA in Hubei is about 8600 yuan/ton.

2、 Market analysis

Cost side:

Yellow phosphorus market prices rose this week. At present, the power restriction in Guizhou is intensifying, the yellow phosphorus output is declining, and some manufacturers in Yunnan are parking, so the market supply is also tight, and the price of yellow phosphorus is rising. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of Yunnan yellow phosphorus is about 34000 yuan/ton; The mainstream quotation of Sichuan yellow phosphorus is about 34000 yuan/ton; The mainstream quotation of Guizhou yellow phosphorus is about 34000 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw phosphorous ore, the domestic phosphorous ore market was generally stable this week. The information on the site was relatively calm, the overall change in supply and demand was small, the supply side was still tight, and the demand side just needed to purchase. Near the end of the year, some mining areas in China will stop mining, and the orders for next year will mainly be pre received. The quotation will also continue to the beginning of next year. As of December 16, the domestic market price of 30% grade phosphate rock is around 1030-1080 yuan/ton, and the price of 28% grade phosphate rock is around 950-980 yuan/ton. The reference price of 32% grade phosphate ore is around 1150-1250 yuan/ton.

Demand side:

The downstream demand of phosphoric acid is fair this week, the market situation is good, and the trading volume on the market is increased. In the near future, the price of phosphoric acid has risen steadily, and the downstream began to stock up under the mentality of buying up rather than buying down. However, due to the epidemic situation, transportation has a certain impact, and the industry is mainly cautious.

3、 Future market forecast

The phosphoric acid analysts of the business community believe that due to the rising price of raw yellow phosphorus, the cost support is strong, the phosphoric acid market is the main player in the trend, and the downstream purchases on demand, with a small amount of stock. It is expected that phosphoric acid will continue to rise in the short term. It is suggested to pay attention to the trend of raw materials and changes in the demand side.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffins 52 was 5400 yuan/ton on December 10, and 5400 yuan/ton on December 15. The price of chlorinated paraffins 52 was stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic price of chlorinated paraffin 52 was stable this week. This week, the raw material liquid wax fell first and then rose. The price of raw material liquid chlorine was the main factor, and the cost support was strengthened. However, the downstream demand for chlorinated paraffins is still weak, the trading atmosphere in the market is general, and the industry is mainly wait-and-see. As of December 15, the ex factory price of chlorinated paraffins 52 in Anhui was about 6000 yuan/ton, the ex factory price of chlorinated paraffins 52 in Northeast China was about 5800 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of chlorinated paraffins 52 in Shandong Province was about 4600 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material liquid wax, the price of liquid wax fell first and then rose this week. The market followed the trend of crude oil. The liquid wax was shipped stably and the transaction was fair. In terms of raw material liquid chlorine, the liquid chlorine market rose in shock this week, and the liquid chlorine market in Shandong was stable, with a good deal on the floor.

3、 Future market forecast

The chlorinated paraffins analysts of the business community believe that the current cost support of chlorinated paraffins is favorable, but the demand side performance is poor, and the overall market of chlorinated paraffins is still weak. It is expected that the chlorinated paraffin market will be dominated by weak and stable operation in the short term, and it is recommended to pay attention to changes in raw materials and demand side.

Since December, the market of dichloromethane has rebounded at a low level. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of December 9, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 2375 yuan/ton, up 6.26% from 2235 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the peak in the cycle was 2397 yuan/ton. As of September 9, the market price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was between 2300 yuan and 2400 yuan/ton.

Since December, the commencement of methane chloride has declined slightly compared with the previous period, but overall, the pressure on the supply side of dichloromethane is still.

In the first ten days of December, the spot market of methanol fell first and then rose, with slight shocks, and the cost of dichloromethane fluctuated slightly. According to the business community, as of December 9, the spot price of methanol was 2680 yuan/ton, down 0.06% from 2681 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; The low point in the cycle is 2621 yuan/ton.

In winter, the domestic household air conditioning industry is in the slack season of production and marketing, and the demand for mainstream refrigerants R32, R22, R410A is weak, and the refrigerant operation is low; The thin material and pharmaceutical industries started relatively stably, and the transactions in the dichloromethane market were generally flat.

Future market forecast: Analysts of the methane chloride data of the business community believe that the domestic supply of methane chloride is mainly loose, and the narrow range of raw material prices shocks the cost. It is expected that the dichloromethane market will continue to shake and consolidate in the short term.

Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

As can be seen from the figure above, the domestic hydrochloric acid price fell slightly this week, and the average market price fell from 178.00 yuan/ton at the weekend to 174.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decline of 2.25%. A year-on-year drop of 42.00%. On December 11, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 45.79, unchanged from yesterday, down 66.79% from the peak of 137.89 (2021-10-26) in the cycle, and up 154.67% from the lowest point of 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Weakened upstream support, better downstream procurement

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price fell slightly this week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market was consolidated at a low level, and the cost support was insufficient. The price of the downstream polyaluminum chloride market rose slightly, from 2021.25 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 2023.75 yuan/ton at the end of this week, an increase of 0.12%. A year-on-year decrease of 14.11%; The market price of ammonium chloride rose slightly, from 995.00 yuan/ton last weekend to 1040.00 yuan/ton this weekend, up 4.52%. On the whole, the upstream support is insufficient and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is good.

Future market forecast

In the middle and late December, the market price of hydrochloric acid rose mainly in a narrow range. The market of upstream liquid chlorine has been consolidated at a low level recently, with average cost support. The market of downstream polyaluminum chloride and ammonium chloride has risen slightly, and the purchase intention of downstream has increased. Analysts from the business community believe that hydrochloric acid has risen mainly due to slight fluctuations recently.

Last week (December 5-11), the cost demand of viscose staple fiber was weak, and the quotations of individual factories were lowered or the preferential treatment was enlarged. The negotiated price of dissolving pulp fell, and the support on the cost side weakened. During the week, viscose staple fiber enterprises still mainly implemented early orders, and some downstream regions just needed replenishment, but most of the deals were made with low price small orders. From the perspective of the downstream human cotton yarn market, the human cotton yarn price continued to be weak, the price fell, the market demand continued to be weak, the overall trading atmosphere was light, the inventory of the yarn mill continued to accumulate, and the factory operating rate declined slightly.

Price trend of viscose staple fiber

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of viscose staple fiber fell slightly last week (December 5-11). As of December 11, 2022, the factory quotation of 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber in China was 13,000 yuan/ton; 200 yuan/ton lower than last week, with a weekly drop of 1.52%. The price of human cotton yarn was weak and overcast. As of December 11, 2022 (30s, ring spinning, first class), the average ex factory price was 17466 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly drop of 0.57%.

Supply and demand

Recently, the start-up rate of viscose staple fiber industry remains low, and the overall low start-up may continue under the loss operation of the manufacturer. In the short term, the enterprise still mainly executes the early orders, and the enterprise’s physical inventory is likely to continue to increase. The demand for human cotton yarn continues to be weak, and the operating rate of the factory drops slightly. The manufacturer mainly makes shipments, and the overall delivery atmosphere is light. The downstream just needs a small amount of procurement. The weaving factory has arranged a Spring Festival holiday.

Future market forecast

Recently, viscose staple fiber and downstream rayon yarn market are in a strong bearish mood, and the operation is cautious. The yarn market is in conflict with the current price of viscose, and the enthusiasm for entering the market is not good. Some yarn enterprises and terminal weaving factories have stopped work for holidays, and the market demand for raw materials has further decreased. Under the pressure of weak cost and weak demand, analysts of the business community expect the price of viscose staple fiber to show a weak downward trend.

According to the bulk data list of the business cooperative, the price of thermal phosphoric acid market this week is the main actor. As of December 9, the average market price of 85% industrial grade phosphoric acid in China was 9100 yuan/ton, which was 3.02% higher than the average price of 8833 yuan/ton on December 5.

Mainstream market:

As of December 9, the ex factory quotation of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan was about 9200 yuan/ton, that of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan was about 8900 yuan/ton, and that of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei was about 9100-9600 yuan/ton. The market quotation of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in Nanjing is about 8800-9600 yuan/ton.

Cost side:

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus, the price of yellow phosphorus market was raised this week, and the manufacturers had a strong attitude towards price fixing. Due to power restriction in Guizhou, the on-site supply is reduced. The transaction price of yellow phosphorus was generally raised, and enterprises were reluctant to sell. As of December 9, the average factory price of yellow phosphorus and net phosphorus had risen to 33000 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw phosphorus ore, the domestic phosphorus ore market was steadily consolidated and operated this week. Near the end of the year, some mining enterprises have closed their mines and stopped mining. The overall supply of medium and high-end grade phosphorus ore in the site is still tight. The price of some mining enterprises in Guizhou has been implemented until the end of the year, and the overall news of phosphorus ore is relatively calm. As of December 9, the domestic phosphorus ore market price is around 1030-1080 yuan/ton, and the price of 28% grade phosphate ore is around 950-980 yuan/ton.

Demand side:

This week, the downstream demand of phosphoric acid is general, with a moderate amount of replenishment as the main part, and there is limited turnover on the market. Downstream procurement is still cautious and mainly wait-and-see.

Future market forecast

Phosphoric acid analysts from the business community believe that due to the continuous rise in the price of raw yellow phosphorus, the cost side is favorable, the phosphoric acid market is on the rise, and the downstream is mainly cautious. It is expected that the price of phosphoric acid will rise steadily in the short term. It is suggested to pay attention to the change of raw material market trend.

In November, the domestic EVA market trend was weak and the price fell. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average ex factory price of domestic EVA was 18,733.33 yuan/ton on November 1 and 17,233.33 yuan/ton on November 30, with an increase or decrease of – 8.01% and – 20.46% compared with the same period last year.

In November, the domestic EVA market accepted the weak market in the early stage. On the supply side, the ex factory price of petrochemical enterprises fell, and the construction started in the middle of the month increased, with the overall load above 60%. In the month, the supply of goods was abundant, the total inventory position rose, and the market competition was fierce, dragging down the factory price; In terms of demand, the demand for photovoltaic and foaming materials has not improved, and the consumption is not good. The downstream multi-dimensional companies maintain their production with rigid procurement, and the market trading atmosphere is light. The sharp drop in auction supply in the first half of the month has brought significant pressure on the market, affecting the current pessimistic mentality of businessmen. The traders on the market have a negative attitude. The offer continues to fall with the petrochemical plant. There is a large space for real order negotiation, and the operation is dominated by giving up profits and taking orders.

To sum up, the EVA market demand in November was weak, the downstream was cautious, the just needed replenishment lagged behind, and the market trading atmosphere was cold. The industrial load rebounded in shock, and the market supply pressure increased rather than decreased. It is expected that the domestic EVA market will continue to operate in a weak position in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of November 30, the average price of domestic rubber grade superior white carbon black was 5750.00 yuan/ton. In November, white carbon black was the main player in the overall market, with a price increase of 2.68% compared with the same period last month. At present, the downstream just needs to purchase, and the mainstream price is about 6000 yuan/ton.

As of November 7, the white carbon black market mainly operated stably, with a strong price increase of 0.89% and slow shipment. The overall market mainly operated stably, with a small price increase, which was 1.77% higher than that at the beginning of the month. The purchasing atmosphere was general, and the quotations of mainstream manufacturers did not change much, with a narrow range and a strong operation.

Chemical commodity index: On November 29, the chemical index was 936 points, down 4 points from yesterday, down 33.14% from the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and up 56.52% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

According to the white carbon black analysts of the business community, the white carbon black market is expected to operate stably and strongly in December.