Business agency data shows that the recent strong spot silver prices, gold stagflation callback, and gradually entered the range of sideways shocks. In late July, the price of precious metals stopped falling and recovered. In late August, the silver price followed the nonferrous metal market and fell deeply. Since September, it has recovered more strongly. Recently, it has also started to show a sideways trend and the upward momentum has weakened.

In the long term, the trend of precious metal prices tends to be the same, with slightly different amplitudes. What is the reason for the slight deviation of the short-term trend in the near future?

CITIC Futures believes that the future economic pressure will still enable precious metals to obtain allocation significance. We should pay attention to the shortage of silver spot against gold, which has weakened the gold silver ratio in the near future regardless of macro pricing. Whether this trend will continue remains to be seen.

Impact of economic data: It is found from the public data that the US economic data is subject to short-term tenacity disturbance, which makes the long-term anti inflation interest rate rise, and precious metals fall sharply this week. Due to the devaluation of the RMB and the expected decline of 100bp on Friday, precious metals have stabilized again. At the same time, despite the recent monetary tightening, the recession expectation has strengthened, and the precious metals still maintain a volatile pattern. This requires attention to two key data: the term structure of inflation and the term structure of real interest rates.

Dr. Zhang Wen, a researcher of CITIC Futures Precious Metals, believes: (1) From the perspective of the inflation term structure in the past three months, the short end is larger than the long end, indicating that the overall inflation control still has a long way to go; (2) From the composition of recent March, July moved down compared with June, but August moved up again, indicating that inflation data in August may not be optimistic at present; (3) From the perspective of the term structure of real interest rate, the short end moved up in August, indicating the expectation of interest rate increase, but the long end fell sharply, indicating that the recession expectation has been strengthened in recent three months.

Dr. Zhang Wen once recommended in the second quarter to focus on the reverse correlation between gold silver ratio and inflation expectations, and achieved good results. However, the latest data in September showed that silver was significantly stronger than gold, and the negative correlation had weakened previously, indicating that silver’s ability to value the macro attributes of gold had weakened.

The London Gold and Silver Association and Comex silver inventory have declined sharply since December last year, which is far lower than the value in the past five years, while Comex silver inventory has also fallen to the pre epidemic position, which may indicate that the impact of macro pricing on the abundance of silver inventory has weakened.

The impact of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike: The inflation data has greatly increased the expectation of interest rate hike. The Federal Reserve’s action in September may meet the mainstream expectation of the market. Although the two sides of the risk of interest rate increase were put forward in the speech of the Federal Reserve in the early stage, which led to a brief hesitation in the market’s expectation of interest rate increase, the speech of the Federal Reserve was still dominated by hawkish language focusing on easing inflation. At the same time, the inflation data in August made the possibility of the marginal easing of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increase fade away. The actions of the Federal Reserve in this interest rate meeting may again meet the mainstream expectations of the market.