1、 Price trend

Business agency: the market price of MTBE fell sharply in February

According to the data of the business agency, the market price of MTBE fell sharply in February. At the end of January, the price of MTBE was 4433 yuan / ton, down 2.48% from 5250 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

2、 Market analysis

Product: affected by China’s epidemic situation in February, the demand of gasoline market dropped precipitously, and the price of domestic gasoline market fell 8.02% in February, and the price of MTBE market fell sharply.

Industry chain: in February, affected by the epidemic situation in China, the demand of refined oil market dropped precipitously. In the late ten days, with the increase of enterprises returning to work, the gasoline market rebounded slightly, but the overall gasoline market was in a downward trend.

Market: affected by the epidemic, the logistics restrictions on people’s travel are still strict. At the same time, the consumption demand of gasoline terminals has fallen precipitously, and the inventory pressure of refineries is large. Similarly, it is difficult for MTBE manufacturers to ship goods, and the market price keeps declining. In the late ten days, although the number of enterprises returning to work increased, the recovery of gasoline terminal consumption was slow. At the same time, the international oil price entered a deep decline state, and the market industry’s market intention was obviously negative. Although MTBE manufacturers cut prices sharply and promoted sales, the overall market volume was still at a low level. In February, MTBE market price was in a declining trend, with limited rebound.

3、 Future forecast

MTBE product analyst of energy branch of business society thinks that: domestic enterprises will resume work step by step, and the market demand of refined oil products cannot be in place in one step. The refinery’s gasoline delivery is not smooth, and the new purchase demand for gasoline raw materials is limited. It is expected that MTBE manufacturers will maintain a low price level in order to relieve inventory pressure.

1、 Price trend

February 28 antimony commodity index was 58.64, flat with yesterday, down 42.69% from 102.32 (2012-10-16), the highest point in the cycle, and up 24.82% from 46.98, the lowest point on December 24, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-08 to now).

2、 Market analysis

Upstream and downstream: on Wednesday, the price of antimony oxide partially fell. As of Friday, the average price of antimony oxide was 99.5% at 37000 yuan / ton, down 500 yuan / ton compared with last week, and 99.8% at 39500 yuan / ton, maintaining stability.

Domestic market: this week’s antimony ingot Market is relatively stable. After the sharp rise in the first half of the month, the price of this week is relatively stable. The main domestic manufacturers are gradually back to work this week, but there is still a process for production recovery. At present, the enterprises are mainly limited in sales, and the price is up to Friday 2 × low bismuth antimony ingot: 41000 yuan / ton, 1 × antimony ingot: 41500 yuan / ton, 0 × antimony ingot: 42500 yuan / ton, up 2000 yuan / ton compared with last week. The average price of 2 × high bismuth antimony ingots is 36500 yuan / ton.

Major domestic events:

National Bureau of Statistics: according to preliminary accounting, the annual GDP in 2019 increased by 6.1% over the previous year: according to the statement released on its official website on the morning of the 28th day of the National Bureau of statistics, the annual GDP in 2019 was 99086.5 billion yuan, an increase of 6.1% over the previous year. Among them, the added value of the primary industry is 7046.7 billion yuan, an increase of 3.1%; the added value of the secondary industry is 38616.5 billion yuan, an increase of 5.7%; the added value of the tertiary industry is 53423.3 billion yuan, an increase of 6.9%. The added value of the primary industry accounts for 7.1% of the GDP, the added value of the secondary industry accounts for 39.0%, and the added value of the tertiary industry accounts for 53.9%.

China’s official manufacturing PMI in February: 35.7 predicted value: 46; top value: 50. In February, the comprehensive PMI output index was 28.9%, 24.1 percentage points lower than last month, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises slowed down. At the same time, the survey results show that with the overall promotion of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development by the Party Central Committee and the State Council, the recovery rate of enterprises is picking up rapidly, and production and operation activities are recovering in an orderly manner. It is expected that China’s purchasing manager index will improve in March.

Two ministries and commissions: to prevent the prices of steel, coal and other fields from rising sharply due to the centralized resumption of production: the national development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Civil Affairs issued the notice on giving full play to the role of industry associations and chambers of Commerce to support the resumption of production of private small and medium-sized enterprises. According to the notice, associations and chambers of Commerce in the field of labor-intensive industries should timely report the employment situation and employment difficulties of the industry to local governments or relevant departments, coordinate the implementation of rescue and rescue policies, and ease the labor shortage and employment difficulties caused by the impact of the epidemic. Associations and chambers of Commerce in industries such as steel, coal, electricity, oil, natural gas and basic raw materials should advocate stable supply and price of member enterprises, so as to prevent regional and time-based shortages or sharp price increases caused by centralized resumption of production.

Industry: the global epidemic spreading crisis has raised the market’s worries about the economic downturn. The global stock market has plummeted, and the risk aversion mood has made gold reach a new high, the bulk commodities have been sold down, and the basic metals at home and abroad have fallen sharply.

3、 Future prospects

From next week to March, the domestic epidemic situation has improved, the return rate of enterprises has increased, and the capital pressure of enterprises at the beginning of the month has eased. However, at present, the spread of the epidemic in the world has increased, global investors are worried that it is difficult to calm down, the selling strength of bulk commodities has not decreased, and domestic metals are afraid to be dragged down.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of octanol in Shandong fell slightly this week. This week, the average price of the mainstream factory quotation of octanol in Shandong fell from 6600.00 yuan / ton to 6566.67 yuan / ton at the weekend, down 0.50%, down 15.38% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the octanol market fell slightly this week, with the octanol commodity index at 48.28 on February 21.

2、 Market analysis

（1） Products:

At present, the operating rate of domestic octanol plant is acceptable; Hualu Hengsheng’s 80000 T / a octanol plant is operating normally, and this week’s offer is firm; the annual capacity of Jiangsu Huachang Chemical octanol plant is 80000 tons, and there is no maintenance plan.

This week, the factory quotation of main octanol manufacturers in Shandong slightly fell: the quotation of octanol of Jianlan Chemical Co., Ltd. at the end of this week was 6500 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton compared with that at the beginning of this week; the quotation of octanol of lihuayi Co., Ltd. this week was 6300 yuan / ton, temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of this week.

（2） Industrial chain:

Upstream raw material Market: propylene market rose this week. The quotation increased from 6102.58 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 6618.18 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 8.45%, down 13.03% year on year. The price of raw materials in the upstream market slightly fell and rose. Affected by the supply and demand, the price of octanol had a positive impact.

Downstream market situation: this week, DOP factory price is lower and consolidated. DOP quoted 7233.33 yuan / ton, down 12.85% year on year. Downstream customers are less active in purchasing octanol, the demand for octanol is general, and the low price consolidation of DOP has a negative impact on octanol market. The aftermarket operators mostly wait and see the trend of DOP.

3、 Future forecast

In late February, the trend of Shandong octanol market may fluctuate slightly. After the adjustment in January, the capital return of each plant is in good condition, the equipment maintenance is completed, and the production capacity is increased. The upstream propylene price rose, the cost support was strong, the downstream plant started gradually, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm rose. According to the octanol analyst of business agency, the octanol market in Shandong in late February may fluctuate slightly under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

1、 Price trend

Business agency: MTBE market price continues to fall this week (February 17-21)

The price of MTBE this weekend was 4776 yuan / ton, down 5.10% from the previous week’s price, according to the data of business agency.

2、 Market analysis

Product: refinery gasoline inventory pressure is still large, market demand for MTBE is still low. The market price of MTBE rebounded in the middle of this week due to the rise of gasoline price, but the market price of MTBE continued to fall in the later period..

Industry chain: in the later part of this week, driven by the continuous rise of crude oil, and in order to reduce profits and losses, refineries began to increase gasoline prices, and downstream operators have followed the increase to replenish storage. However, gasoline inventory is still high, and MTBE market demand remains low.

MTBE Market: with the gradual improvement of China’s epidemic situation, the restrictions on logistics and transportation are slightly relaxed, but the transportation capacity is still very tight. In addition, the rigid demand for gasoline raw materials is still low under the pressure of gasoline inventory in refineries. The delivery of MTBE manufacturers is poor, and the market price falls. Although most MBE units were shut down or production load was reduced in the early stage, MTBE production continued to decline, but at present, manufacturers still have inventory, and MTBE market supply can still be guaranteed. MTBE market prices fell first, then rose and then fell this week.

3、 Future forecast

According to MTBE product analyst of energy branch of business news agency, the international crude oil market is on the rise, and the impact of China’s epidemic on the refined oil market is gradually reduced. It is expected that the price of gasoline market will rise in the near future. The rise of gasoline market price will drive the domestic MTBE market price up. It is expected that the domestic MTBE market price will rebound to the bottom next week.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business association, as of February 17, Zhejiang Province had 5350 yuan / ton, Guangdong Province 5550 yuan / ton, Jiangsu Province 5375 yuan / ton, Luxi Chemical Industry 4800 yuan / ton, Hualu Hengsheng 5200 yuan / ton, Zhangqiu daily and monthly 4900 yuan / ton. Affected by the coronavirus epidemic, the market transactions in each region were average, and the logistics and transportation were severely restricted.

2、 Market analysis

Products: the domestic DMF market is in weak operation, the parking device in the early stage has not been returned to work, a small number of orders from the factory have been delivered for transportation, the atmosphere of on-site order inquiry has been slightly eased, and traders are still in a strong wait-and-see mood.

Industrial chain: the situation of downstream market return is limited, part of Jiangsu and Zhejiang are smooth in transportation, the recovery of intensive enterprises is limited, the demand in South China is sporadic, and the overall demand in the downstream is insufficient.

Industry: on February 16, the chemical industry index was 720, the same as yesterday, down 29.13% from 1016 (2012-03-13), the highest point in the cycle, and up 20.00% from 600, the lowest point on January 31, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

 
4、 Future forecast

DMF analysts think: domestic DMF market is weak.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid rose this week. As of the end of the week, the price was 10720 yuan / ton, 2.88% higher than 10420 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, down 12.19% year on year.

Products: this week, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid is rising. Recently, the on-site manufacturers are not in good condition. Affected by the epidemic situation, some manufacturers have not resumed production. In addition, the transportation aspect is slow to change. The domestic spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is tight. In addition, the inventory of enterprises not shut down during the Spring Festival is exhausted. The purchase demand is increased. The market price of hydrofluoric acid is higher. The price of fluorite is still high in the near future The market price of hydrofluoric acid has been supported to a certain extent, and the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid has increased. By the end of the weekend, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in the South was 10500-11500 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the north market was 10500-11000 yuan / ton. In recent years, the price of hydrofluoric acid Market in China has increased. In recent years, the demand of downstream refrigerant industry is general, and the delivery orders of hydrofluoric acid manufacturers have increased. Some manufacturers reflect the recent price increase. By the end of the week, the mainstream of domestic hydrofluoric acid negotiation in Fujian was about 10500-11000 yuan / ton, the price of hydrofluoric acid in Shandong was 10500-11000 yuan / ton, the price of hydrofluoric acid in Jiangxi was 10500-11000 yuan / ton, the price of hydrofluoric acid in Inner Mongolia was 9500-11000 yuan / ton, and the market price trend of hydrofluoric acid rose.

Industry chain: the price of fluorite in the upstream of hydrofluoric acid is stable this week. By the end of the week, the factory price of fluorite is 2900 yuan / ton. The supply of domestic fluorite is normal, but the price of fluorite has little change. The upstream cost price has a certain cost support impact on the hydrofluoric acid market. In the near future, some manufacturers in Henan, Zhejiang and Jiangxi have not resumed production, and the supply of domestic fluorite is very tight. For hydrofluoric acid, the factory price of fluorite is 2900 yuan / ton The market has certain cost support. In the near future, the transaction market of the downstream refrigerant market of the terminal is slightly light. At present, the automobile industry is in holiday, the domestic R22 supply is tight, the domestic refrigerant R22 market price trend is stable, the starting load of the manufacturer’s production device is still not high, the supply situation of the market supply is general, the downstream air conditioning manufacturer stops more, the demand changes little, and the price mainstream of the domestic large enterprises rises to 15500-18500 Yuan / ton. The price trend of domestic R134a market is temporarily stable, and the unit operation rate of production enterprises remains low. At present, the downstream operation is not high, and the demand for R134a is general. However, the supply of R134a in the market is a little tight, the price remains stable, the downstream market changes little, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market rises slightly.

Industry: this week, the upstream raw materials fluorite and hydrofluoric acid market spot supply is tight, coupled with the downstream refrigerant industry on-demand procurement, hydrofluoric acid market price trend.

In recent years, the operating rate of domestic refrigerants has not changed much. For the demand of hydrofluoric acid market, the demand for hydrofluoric acid is on demand. The spot supply of hydrofluoric acid in the field is tight. In addition, the supply of raw materials in the market is limited in the near future, and the cost price is supported to some extent. Chen Ling, an analyst of hydrofluoric acid in business association, thinks that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may rise slightly next week.

1、 Price trend

This week, the domestic liquefied gas (Shandong) market continued to decline. On February 3, the average price of the liquefied gas market was 3733.33 yuan / ton, and on February 7, the average price was 3650 yuan / ton, with a drop of 2.23% in the week. The price was 6.81% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: weak domestic liquefied gas market fell this week, and the market trading atmosphere was flat. As of February 7, the price of LPG from Sinopec Guangzhou Chemical Co., Ltd. is 3850 yuan / ton, from Sinopec Jingmen Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 3850 yuan / ton, from Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 3620 yuan / ton, from Sinopec Qingdao Refining Chemical Co., Ltd. is 3450 yuan / ton, from Shandong Jincheng Petrochemical Group is 4200 yuan / ton, The price of LPG of Sinopec Shijiazhuang refining and chemical company is 3500 yuan / ton. The price of Sinopec Luoyang Petrochemical LPG is 3400 yuan / ton.

This week, the liquefied gas market (Shandong) continued to decline. After the holiday, the international crude oil fell mainly, creating a negative effect on the market. At present, the terminal market is delayed to start work, the demand is significantly reduced, and the downstream market is mainly cautious, with poor enthusiasm for entering the market. The manufacturer’s shipment has been blocked continuously, and the inventory pressure is relatively obvious. Although there is a demand for storage and replenishment after the festival, the market has not improved at present, and the price has been continuously weak.

Saudi Aramco issued CP in February, with propane of 505 US dollars / ton, down 60 US dollars / ton compared with the previous month; butane of 545 US dollars / ton, down 45 US dollars / ton compared with the previous month.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, there are two kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the fifth week of 2020 (2.3-2.7). The top two commodities are power coal (1.47%) and petroleum coke (1.38%). There are 8 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and 1 kind of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products falling are dimethyl ether (- 6.69%), Brent crude oil (- 2.98%) and liquefied gas (- 2.23%). This week’s average was – 0.82%.

3、 Future forecast

Although the holiday is over, the current terminal market is delayed to start, resulting in a significant reduction in demand, the manufacturer’s inventory pressure after the holiday is large, and the continuous interest to stimulate the downstream market, but there is no obvious effect, it is expected to continue to decline next week or the trend.

1、 Price trend:

On January 19, crude benzene commodity index was 73.60, flat with yesterday, down 44.17% from 131.84 (2013-01-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 87.52% from 39.25, the lowest point on December 22, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Market analysis:

Domestic market: this week’s pure benzene is in a weak position. This week is the last trading week before the festival. Coking enterprises have a strong willingness to ship, but the traffic situation is relatively severe. Most coking enterprises’ prices are down. This week’s bidding price of crude benzene enterprises is down. The downstream hydrogenated benzene enterprises are generally under construction, which has a great impact on logistics. As of Friday, the price of crude benzene in Shandong fell slightly to 4600 yuan / ton left Right, 50 yuan / ton lower than last week.

Industry chain: crude oil: this week, oil prices fell in shock. Early in the week, the impact of tensions in the Middle East subsided, and the focus of the market turned to the impact of the surge in US oil product inventories. On Wednesday morning, the United States and China signed the first stage trade agreement, which was good for oil prices, and oil prices began to pick up. WTI fell 0.7% and Brent 3.78% compared to January 10. Pure benzene: near the Spring Festival, the port stock of pure benzene has accumulated. With the completion of downstream replenishment of inventory, the completion of traders’ replenishment of empty space and insufficient crude oil support, the operation of pure benzene is weak this week. Downstream: styrene price is stable this week compared with last week. Due to the downstream stock up before the festival, the shipment of aniline was smooth, and the price was increased by 1.56% compared with last week. Most of the downstream products of pure benzene are in the loss of theoretical production and lack of support for the price of pure benzene.

3、 Trend Forecast:

With the approaching of the Spring Festival holiday, the delivery volume of coke enterprises has increased, but due to the impact of logistics and transportation, the overall transaction situation is general, and the market price before the festival is difficult to fluctuate greatly.

1、 Price trend

According to the data in the business club’s large list, the price of aniline in Shandong Province rose 200 yuan / ton this week, and the market price of aniline in Shandong Province on Friday was 6400 yuan / ton, 3.23% higher than that on Friday; the price of aniline in Nanjing region rose 100 yuan / ton this week, and the market price on Friday was 6800 yuan / ton, 1.49% higher than that on Friday.

2、 Analysis and comment

Raw materials: this week’s pure benzene is weak, and the price is 5600-5950 yuan / ton on Friday. Near the Spring Festival, the port inventory of pure benzene has accumulated. With the completion of downstream replenishment of inventory, the completion of traders’ replenishment of empty space and insufficient crude oil support, the operation of pure benzene is weak this week.

Nitric acid edged down this week, down 1.04%.

Product: this week, in the event of the downstream pre Festival stock up, the aniline enterprise’s shipment is smooth, the inventory pressure is released, and the price is increased. In the second half of the week, the downstream stock slowed down, and the aniline factory mainly stabilized the price and delivered goods.

3、 Future expectation

Raw materials: some factories put styrene into production in the later stage, which has a certain positive support for the demand for pure benzene. However, the announcement of the latest Sino US trade agreement raised industry concerns about the inflow of styrene from the United States. The market price of styrene has a downside risk, which is bad for the pure benzene market. It is expected that the price of pure benzene will be lower in the later period.

The downstream stock up is basically over, and the aniline shipment volume is back to normal. Considering the approaching Spring Festival, the market is going to have holidays one after another, the pace of trading slows down, and the price fluctuation is limited. It is expected that aniline will run stably next week.

1. Trade name: silicon metal (441 × 3)

2. Latest price (January 17, 2020): 11858.33 yuan / ton

The price of 441 × silicon in each region is as follows:

The price range of metal silicon in Fujian is 11300-11400 yuan / ton, in Sichuan is 11600-11700 yuan / ton, in Kunming is 11600-11700 yuan / ton, in Shanghai is 12400-12600 yuan / ton, in Tianjin port is 11900-12100 yuan / ton, in Huangpu port is 11900-12100 yuan / ton 。

3. Analysis points:

Near the Spring Festival, the trading volume is fading, the overall trading volume of silicon metal is moving down, and the market average price is mainly stable. At the end of the factory, the desire to receive orders fell before the year; the buyer’s early stocking operation was near the end; in addition, transport vehicles in various regions were hard to find, and the metal silicon gradually entered the spring festival atmosphere.

4. Future forecast: close to the Spring Festival, coupled with tight freight, it is expected that the short-term stable and strong operation of silicon metal will prevail.