According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of the 19th, the average ex factory price of domestic n-butanol was 5550 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton or 1.83% compared with the beginning of this week (15th); compared with the beginning of this month (1st), the price was reduced by 16 yuan / ton, down 0.30%, and the maximum amplitude from June 1st to 19th was 2.40%. On June 18, the n-butanol (industrial grade) commodity index was 44.70, up 0.13 points from yesterday, down 55.30% from the cycle’s highest point of 100.00 (2011-10-08), and up 49.55% from the lowest point of 29.89 on November 30, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

In the first ten days of June, affected by the restart of some units and the weakness of raw materials, the downstream wait-and-see mood was heavy, the trading atmosphere turned weak, and the n-butanol market fell all the way.

In the first three days of June, the market was in stable operation as a whole, and downstream procurement was on demand, with general market transactions. On April 4, due to the excessive inventory in some areas of n-butanol, the factory delivered the goods at a profit, and the market price of n-butanol decreased by 50-100 yuan / ton. Then, the market of n-butanol did not continue to decline, and the increase of propylene still provided cost support. Until the weekend (7), the market of n-butanol remained stable, the manufacturer mainly delivered orders, and the downstream just needed replenishment. On August 8, some n-butanol plant units were restarted, the supply side was relatively sufficient, coupled with the influence of weak propylene raw material, the downstream wait-and-see mood was heavy, the trading atmosphere turned weak, and the market price fell slightly. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, on August 8, the average ex factory price of n-butanol dropped to 5466 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton, down 1.80% compared with the beginning of the month.

On the 11th, with the resumption of some factories and the increase of sales, the inventory of n-butanol was too much, the downstream maintained just needed replenishment, the operation was cautious, and the quotation of some factories was slightly reduced again, with a reduction of 50 yuan / ton. Then the market was weak and reorganized to the weekend. According to the monitoring data of the business society, the average ex factory price of n-butanol on the 14th was 5433 yuan / ton, down 133 yuan compared with the price on the 1st of June Yuan / ton, down 2.40%.

Low half month end up n-butanol strong rally this week

Starting from this week, on the 15th, the mainstream price of n-butanol in China was increased. The main reason for the increase was that the willingness of some butanol units to switch to octanol was enhanced due to the high price difference between butanol and octanol. In addition, some factories stopped for maintenance, the inventory of n-butanol was low, the supply of goods was tight, the downstream just needed replenishment, the trading atmosphere was improved, and the factory’s offer was firm. On the 15th, according to the data monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory quotation of n-butanol of Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. was 5500 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton, or 1.85% compared with the price at the end of last week (12 days); the ex factory quotation of Wanhua Chemical Co., Ltd. in East China was 5500 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton, or 1.85% compared with the price at the end of last week (12 days). Then this week, the supply of main n-butanol factories continued to be tight, and the overall market quotation moved up. In addition, the cost of propylene increased, which gave support to the cost of n-butanol. The factory inventory was low, the downstream purchasing atmosphere continued to improve, and the market low price quotation continued to decrease. This week, the quotation of n-butanol continued to rise. As of the 19th, the ex factory quotation of Wanhua chemical in East China is 5600 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton this week; the ex factory quotation of Shandong lihuayi n-butanol is 5450 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton this week; the ex factory quotation of Luxi n-butanol is 5600 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton this week. At present, according to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic n-butanol is 5550 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of this week (15th), 1.83% higher; 86 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of last week (8th), 1.50% higher; 16 yuan / ton lower, 0.30% lower than that at the beginning of this month (1st), and the maximum amplitude from June 1st to 19th is 2.40%.

Upstream, the market price of propylene in Shandong continued to rise this week. After a week’s rally in early June, Shandong propylene market showed a significant correction in the middle of the price. According to the price of the business agency, last week’s 7-day cumulative decline of 350 yuan / ton. But at the end of the week, the price stopped falling and recovered. Today, the price has risen 250-350 yuan / ton continuously. Now, the market turnover is between 6750-6950 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6750 yuan / ton. At present, propylene manufacturers are in good condition of delivery, no inventory pressure. On the 16th of this week, the price of crude oil was significantly increased and the market was bullish, which had a certain pull-up effect on propylene. On the other hand, the downstream propylene plant has a good profit, a high enthusiasm for receiving goods, a positive market procurement and an active overall atmosphere.

According to analysts of n-butanol, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol market is good at present, the confidence of operators is improved, and the short-term factory sales pressure is reduced. It is expected that the negotiation center of domestic n-butanol market will continue to rise next week.