In June 2026, the domestic MIBK market showed an overall weak downward trend, with an accelerated decline rate, weak supply and demand, and unsupported costs. Affected by multiple negative factors such as loose supply, off-season downstream demand, and shrinking exports, the market price center has shifted significantly downwards, trading has been light, and industry players have a strong wait-and-see attitude, resulting in a lack of effective positive support throughout the month.

The spot price of MIBK fell throughout June, and the decline intensified at the end of the month. The market benchmark price at the beginning of the month was 11860 yuan/ton, which fell to 9467 yuan/ton on June 30th, with a decline of over 20% during the month.
From a technical perspective, this month’s moving average has been consistently negative, indicating a clear weakness. On June 24th, the average difference between M10-M20 was -405 yuan/ton, indicating continued weakness; On the 26th, there was a brief slight bottoming out but weak support; At the end of the month, the downward trend resumed, with the spread widening to -451.67 yuan/ton, indicating sufficient downward momentum, and mainstream quotes approaching the 10000 yuan mark. The prices of major domestic mainstream markets have synchronously declined, regional price differences have narrowed, and the market trend is highly consistent.
Supply side: Overcapacity is prominent, and inventory and shipment pressures are relatively high
In June, the domestic MIBK equipment operated stably, with high industry start-up rates and no large-scale maintenance, and the overall supply of goods was sufficient. The continuous release of new and expanded production capacity in the early stage of the industry has further highlighted the pattern of overcapacity in the market.
The manufacturer’s inventory continues to accumulate, and in order to recoup funds and reduce inventory, they generally offer discounts and loose quotes, which continue to suppress market prices. Overall, they are in a weak state of loose supply, high inventory, and pressure on shipments.
On the demand side: The terminal is weak during the off-season, and market trading is sluggish
The off-season demand is the core reason for the weak market this month. The downstream industries of MIBK, such as coatings, inks, and fine chemicals, have been affected by the high temperatures in summer, resulting in sluggish production and only sporadic replenishment for essential needs, without centralized stocking. The downstream derivatives industry has insufficient orders and limited profits, and raw material procurement is generally controlled in quantity.
Traders are cautious in their operations, tend to fast in and out, and pick up goods as needed, resulting in a low willingness to stockpile. As the core consumption area, the procurement volume of the East China market (with a demand proportion of 42.7%) continues to shrink, further exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance and suppressing the market recovery.
Cost side: Low volatility of raw materials, loose and unsupported production profits
This month, the core raw material acetone has fluctuated weakly, with no upward momentum, and there is a complete lack of support on the cost side. The low-level operation of raw materials has led to loose production profits for MIBK, and manufacturers have no willingness to raise prices. Coupled with weak fundamentals, the company continues to lower prices according to the market, driving the market to continue to weaken.
Market Trend Prediction for July
In June, the MIBK market experienced a weak downward trend, with core bearish factors including overcapacity, off-season demand, cost overruns, and shrinking exports. Multiple factors led to price drops and sluggish trading. There is no explosive market trend in the industry in the short term, and the trend is highly dependent on fundamentals. The follow-up focus is on tracking the start-up of the equipment, the recovery of downstream demand, and changes in acetone raw material prices and import and export data.

The price of ethylene oxide will decrease month on month in June 2026. According to data, as of June 29th, the average market price of epoxyethane in China was 6800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.53% from the market average price of 7600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (6.1).

On June 29, 2026, the mainstream market ex factory listing prices for ethylene oxide in various regions of China were as follows: the ethylene oxide market in East China was priced at 6800 yuan/ton to the outside world; The listed price of ethylene oxide in the South China market is 6700-6800 yuan/ton; The listed price of ethylene oxide in North China is 6650 yuan/ton; The listed price of ethylene oxide in the Central China region is 6800-7600 yuan/ton.
From the perspective of the price trend of ethylene oxide within the month, it has basically maintained stable operation after a significant decrease at the beginning of the month.
Reasons for maintaining stable operation within the month after the sharp decline in early June 2026
Bottom of cost stabilization: The downward space for crude oil and ethylene has narrowed, raw material prices have stopped falling sideways, and EO has lost further downward momentum;
Supply margin contraction offsets excess: In the second half of the year, multiple sets of EO devices entered maintenance one after another, reducing production volume to offset the increase in resuming production. The market’s supply of goods no longer continues to increase, and manufacturers’ willingness to raise prices has rebounded;
Stable inventory at a low level: At the beginning of the month, the price reduction and destocking were completed, and the pressure on factory inventory was significantly alleviated, no longer significantly dumping goods;
Downstream low demand replenishment: After the price drops to a low level, the panic and wait-and-see attitude in the downstream weakens, and small-scale replenishment is carried out on demand at low prices to support market transactions and enter a weak supply-demand balance zone;
Leading pricing stability maintenance: Top companies such as Sinopec and PetroChina lock in factory quotations to avoid vicious internal bidding and drive the entire market to operate horizontally.
Driven by the June ethylene oxide market: a significant decline in upstream costs, oversupply repair, and weak demand during the off-season, the negative fundamentals led to a downward shift in the monthly focus; At the beginning of the month, the concentrated release of bearish sentiment completed a rapid decline, and in the middle and late of the month, the supply and demand, as well as the marginal balance of costs, came to an end, with a narrow horizontal oscillation.
post-market forecast
In July, the overall trend showed a slight downward pressure at the beginning of the month, followed by a narrow range of oscillation and bottoming out in the middle and late of the month. The monthly average price was slightly lower than that in June; Overall supply exceeds demand, off-season demand is weak, costs are bottoming out, and there is limited room for decline, with no unilateral sharp rise or fall market.

1、 Price trend

This week, caustic soda prices have been operating steadily. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the end of the week was 670 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 20.14%. On June 25th, the Business Society Chlor Alkali Index was 741 points, a decrease of 8 points from yesterday, a decrease of 65.18% from the highest point of 2128 points during the cycle (2021-10-24), and an increase of 4.81% from the lowest point of 707 points on February 27th, 2026. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to the commodity analysis system, the price of caustic soda has been relatively stable this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region has risen, with the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali being around 610-690 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in Zhejiang region remains stable, with the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali being around 760-820 yuan/ton when delivered to Xiaoshan. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region has stabilized, with the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali being around 1900-1950 yuan/ton (converted to 100%). This week, the price of caustic soda is mixed with long and short positions. On the positive side: In the later stage, there will still be chlor alkali enterprises undergoing maintenance, resulting in a decrease in production and a positive performance in enterprise inventory. Downstream alumina manufacturers are actively stocking up, providing favorable support for caustic soda prices. On the negative side: caustic soda companies have accumulated inventory, and downstream demand for non aluminum continues to be sluggish. They tend to purchase on demand, but there is no positive improvement, putting pressure on the market.
Analysts believe that in the near future, caustic soda prices have been weak this week. Downstream alumina shipments in China have been good recently, and the current alumina procurement prices are good. The inventory of caustic soda enterprises has decreased, supporting the price of caustic soda. However, due to the general acceptance of non aluminum enterprises, the comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that caustic soda may tend to consolidate, depending on downstream market demand.

As of June 18th, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyi Society was 15766.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.84% from the end of last month. Recently, there has been no clear directional driving in the market, and buyers and sellers are engaged in a tug of war around rigid demand, resulting in a mild trading atmosphere for spot goods.
Raw material side: The price of raw fluorite has slightly weakened, while the domestic sulfuric acid market continues to be strong. Overall, the weakening of fluorite and the high level of sulfuric acid are mutually offsetting each other, and the overall cost support of raw materials has weakened. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of June 18th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s fluorite was 3393.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.73% compared to the beginning of this month (3418.75 yuan/ton).
On the demand side: In recent times, mainstream downstream industries have been executing more contract orders, and spot purchases are mainly based on replenishing inventory on demand, resulting in a low willingness to hoard goods. Affected by the poor transmission of terminal consumption, the actual pace of market movement is relatively slow, and speculative demand in the trade sector is also suppressed. However, due to the neutral level of raw material inventory in most downstream enterprises, there has been no concentrated price cutting or procurement reduction behavior in the short term. Although the demand side has no driving effect, it has not posed a significant negative impact on the market.
Market forecast: Hydrofluoric acid analysts predict that in the short term, the domestic anhydrous hydrogen fluoride market is expected to continue its stagnant consolidation pattern, with limited price fluctuations, and market participants need to pay close attention to the marginal changes that may be brought about by the raw material end (especially the arrival of sulfur imports) and downstream large factories’ external procurement trends, on the premise that the cost support has not loosened and the main enterprises’ price support mentality has not changed.

1、 Price trend
As of June 15th, the reference average price of urea market in Shandong Province, China was 1802 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.91% compared to the reference average price of 1786 yuan/ton on June 7th.
2、 Market analysis
market situation
This week, the domestic urea market price first rose and then fell. At the beginning of the week, urea was affected by the cancellation of the export guidance price policy, boosting the urea market and causing prices to continue to rise. On Thursday, urea prices began to fall, with limited export benefits and average downstream demand. In addition, the futures market weakened, and the urea spot market continued to decline. As of June 15th, the urea market prices in Shandong are around 1740-1800 yuan/ton, Hebei is around 1760-1780 yuan/ton, Henan is around 1730-1790 yuan/ton, Hubei is around 1750-1790 yuan/ton, and Liaoning is around 1850-1890 yuan/ton.
supply and demand situation
In terms of supply, the current operating rate of urea enterprises is over 90%, daily production remains high, and overall inventory is still under pressure. In terms of demand, the current demand for urea in agriculture is weakening, and downstream compound fertilizer enterprises are purchasing according to demand. The demand for industrial urea has also begun to decrease.
3、 Future forecast
The urea analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the recent domestic urea market trend is mainly downward. At present, the demand for urea is off-season, downstream procurement is slowing down, and market transactions are cautious. It is expected that the domestic urea market will continue to operate weakly in the short term.

This week, the TDI market in East China stopped falling and rose. As of June 12th, the average market price in East China was 15133 yuan/ton, and the average price on June 8th was 14800 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.25% and a year-on-year increase of 32.36%.
This week, the TDI market has stopped falling and rebounded. During the week, major factories closed down and suspended sales, increasing the willingness of the supply side to raise prices. The low prices in the market have converged, and traders’ quotes have slightly increased. With the rise in prices, downstream market entry is cautious, demand is average, and small orders are mainly traded.
Supply side: Domestic Wanhua equipment maintains low load operation. BASF’s Shanghai facility is undergoing a three week shutdown and maintenance.
On the cost side: The toluene market fluctuates with crude oil prices, with prices fluctuating and falling. Market transactions are light, and news guidance is limited.
In terms of future market analysis, TDI data analysts believe that the current TDI market is characterized by strong supply and weak demand. Due to the influence of international conditions, prices are cautiously rising, and it is expected that the short-term market will maintain a relatively strong trend. Therefore, it is important to closely monitor macro and market supply and demand changes.

From May 25th to 29th, the domestic BDO price dropped from 8404 yuan/ton to 8166 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 2.86% during the period, a month on month drop of 4.16%, and a year-on-year increase of 0.73%. The supply and demand pressure in the domestic BDO market still exists, and downstream industries are experiencing a downturn, resulting in a compressed profit margin and a negative market sentiment, driving the market focus to continue to decline.

On the supply side, in terms of equipment, there is no significant change in the overall supply volume, and the support on the supply side is average. The positive impact of BDO supply has weakened.
On the cost side, in terms of calcium carbide, the price of raw material blue charcoal has risen, providing strong support for the cost side of calcium carbide prices. In terms of methanol, the methanol market is operating weakly. The raw material calcium carbide market is improving, while the methanol market is weak, and the impact of BDO cost is mixed.
On the demand side, downstream production of GBL and PU pulp has declined, resulting in a slight reduction in raw material digestion and increased supply and demand pressure in the industry. At the same time, the weak performance of terminal demand has driven downstream industries to continue to decline, compressing profit margins and transmitting bearish sentiment upwards, resulting in strong bargaining sentiment towards raw materials. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.
The future forecast shows a reduction in supply and stable demand, but the inventory in the early stage needs to be digested, and the bearish purchasing and selling mentality of the main players continues. Insufficient fundamental support and poor transmission of industrial chain costs have led to a mainstream mentality of holding onto the shipment of goods, dragging the market center of gravity downward. Overall, BDO analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the domestic BDO market may decline again.

In May 2026, the domestic phenol market experienced an overall downward trend with no significant rebound, and a bearish sentiment persisted throughout the month. After the May Day holiday, the market quickly fell, and mainstream domestic production enterprises continued to lower their factory quotes in the middle and late stages, further dragging down spot prices. In terms of price, the spot price in East China was quoted at 8300-8500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, but fell to 7400-7600 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a monthly decline of 11.7%. The imbalance of regional supply flow has led to the continuous influx of Shandong’s supply into East China, exacerbating local inventory pressure.

Insufficient support for raw material costs: The upstream pure benzene market has slightly weakened, and the fluctuation and decline of crude oil have dragged down the overall cost of chemical products. Coupled with sufficient supply of pure benzene itself and flat downstream demand, it is difficult for the raw material side to provide price support for phenol, and the cost defense line has loosened, opening up space for the decline of phenol.
The overall market supply is abundant: the average operating rate of domestic phenol ketone units remains at a high level of 82%. Although some units have undergone maintenance and load reduction, the operation of large-scale integrated refining and chemical units is stable, and the overall supply of goods is sufficient. At the same time, the industry’s inventory is slowly accumulating, traders have a strong willingness to cash out from shipments, the market’s supply is loose, and suppliers are lowering prices to reduce inventory, driving the market to continue to weaken.
Downstream demand continues to be weak: The weak demand for phenol in the two major downstream markets is the main reason for the downward trend in the market. The production of bisphenol A and phenolic resin industries remains at a low level, with weak market conditions and limited profits. Downstream factories only require immediate procurement without centralized inventory replenishment. The slow recovery of the real estate and automotive terminal industries, coupled with high inventory of downstream finished products, extreme caution in raw material procurement, and no positive release from the demand side.
After the holiday, the demand fell short of market expectations, and the bullish sentiment in the market quickly dissipated. Traders and downstream remained cautious, and spot trading was sluggish. The synchronized weakening of the market further suppresses market confidence, with a majority of selling in the market and a lack of momentum to stop the decline and rebound.
East China: Market trendsetter, with the largest decline and overall light trading volume; North China/Shandong: Following the downward trend in East China, the main source of goods is for export, with a slightly smaller decline compared to East China; South China: Supported by logistics and local demand, it has slightly stronger resistance to decline, but overall it still follows the market’s decline.
In the short term, the weak supply and demand pattern of phenol in early June is difficult to improve, and the price is likely to fluctuate narrowly at a low level. The mainstream range of spot prices in East China is 7400-7600 yuan/ton, with limited room for both major and major declines. In late June, as the traditional peak season for chemical industry approaches, downstream facilities are expected to restart in a concentrated manner. Coupled with the stabilization of crude oil and pure benzene costs, the phenol market is expected to stop falling and rebound slightly, with prices expected to recover to 7500-8000 yuan/ton.

1、 Price trend

This week, the price of aniline has declined. On May 18th, the market price of aniline was 11462 yuan/ton, and on May 22nd, it was 11062 yuan/ton. The price dropped by 3.49% during the week and increased by 45.08% compared to the same period last year.
2、 Analysis and Review
This week, the aniline market has experienced a weak decline, and the price of raw material pure benzene has recently been weakly lowered, leading to insufficient market confidence and weakened purchasing power. Aniline companies have lowered prices by 100 yuan/ton and 300 yuan/ton respectively to stimulate sales. As of Friday, the mainstream price of aniline has dropped to 11000-11200 yuan/ton.
Cost aspect: Recently, the pure benzene market has fluctuated within a certain range. Due to the continued restrictions on passage through the Strait of Hormuz, some Asian refineries have gradually reduced production, resulting in a significant contraction in pure benzene supply; The downstream negative feedback of pure benzene continues, but the overall supply and demand expectations for pure benzene remain tight, and port inventories continue to decline, providing support for prices.
3、 Future expectations
After the price fell, the demand side of the aniline market eased, and downstream gradually followed suit. Without significant changes in the raw material side, it is expected that the aniline market will consolidate and operate in the short term.

In May, the price of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries remained weak and stabilized
As of May 19th, the price of phthalic anhydride from neighboring countries was 8916.67 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and fell by 0.19% compared to the price of phthalic anhydride on May 1st, which was 8933.33 yuan/ton. The current price is at a mid to high level within a one-year range, with a minimum annual value of 5533.33 yuan/ton and a maximum value of 9833.33 yuan/ton. The current price is above the median value of 7683.33 yuan/ton. In May, the price of phthalic anhydride from neighboring countries decreased, while the price of phthalic anhydride from naphthalene method increased.
In May, the phthalic anhydride market was strong in naphthalene and weak in neighboring countries
The core feature of the phthalic anhydride market in May was the significant strengthening of naphthalene phthalic anhydride and the weak consolidation of neighboring phthalic anhydride: the ex factory price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride in Hebei Province rose from 7500 yuan/ton on April 30 to 8000-8100 yuan/ton on May 18, with a cumulative increase of about 550 yuan/ton, or about 7.33%. The inventory of naphthalene phthalic anhydride industry is generally oversold, and the supply remains tight. The overall performance of phthalic anhydride shows a pattern of “weak consolidation, stable but not rising”. The neighboring method is suppressed by demand, while the naphthalene method is driven by supply shortages, and the price difference between the two is narrowing.
Stable cost support for phthalic anhydride
The neighboring benzene manufacturers are in a period of shutdown and maintenance, with reduced supply and stable prices; As the core raw material of phthalic anhydride, ortho benzene has been under price pressure recently; Industrial naphthalene supports the cost end of naphthalene based phthalic anhydride.
Phthalic anhydride supply first decreases and then stabilizes
In May, the operating rate of the phthalic anhydride industry showed a trend of first decreasing and then stabilizing: at the end of April and the beginning of May, the operating rate of phthalic anhydride enterprises ranged from 65% to 70%, and then the operating rate of neighboring plants gradually decreased due to profit suppression and maintenance. The overall operating rate of the industry was less than 60%. As of May 19th, the operating rate of phthalic anhydride remained stable at around 62%, and the operating rate of naphthalene method remained high and stable. The overall operating rate of phthalic anhydride enterprises has declined in May, and the supply of phthalic anhydride has tightened.
Demand side: Weak consolidation
The main downstream consumer area of phthalic anhydride, the plasticizer sector, is trending towards weakness: the production and sales of the terminal industry are not strong, the consumption of plasticizer suppliers is limited, and plasticizer prices are fluctuating and falling. Downstream procurement is mainly focused on essential needs, and inventory is replenished at low prices, resulting in a low overall purchasing willingness. The demand side support is limited, but essential procurement still provides a bottom line for phthalic anhydride prices, and industry inventory remains at a low level. The low inventory of phthalic anhydride manufacturers and the overall low inventory of the industry, coupled with tightening supply, have to some extent offset the pressure of insufficient demand.
Future forecast
According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s phthalic anhydride products, in the short term, on the cost side, due to the deadlock in the US Iran peace talks, crude oil prices are consolidating at a high level, while the prices of ortho benzene and industrial naphthalene are stabilizing, and the overall cost side is strong and stable. Supply side: The utilization rate of domestic phthalic anhydride production capacity has declined, the market supply is tight, and coupled with the widespread overselling of inventory in the naphthalene phthalic anhydride industry, it has provided strong support for neighboring phthalic anhydride. Demand side: The plasticizer sector is operating weakly, with prices of DOP and DBP being weak, only supported by essential procurement. Overall, in May, the phthalic anhydride market showed a trend of “naphthalene method strengthening, neighboring method stabilizing, and overall weak consolidation”, with low industry inventory and strong demand support forming a pulling force. It is expected to maintain a weak and stable pattern in the short term, but there is still further upward space for naphthalene method phthalic anhydride prices, which may stimulate neighboring method phthalic anhydride prices to recover in advance.