TDI East China Market Price Trend Up on July 31

Price Trend

On July 31, the TDI commodity index was 74.96, up 0.53 points from yesterday, down 69.78% from 248.02 points in the cycle (2016-10-19) and 24.58% from 60.17 points on February 22, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

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II. Market Analysis

Products: According to statistics, the price trend of TDI in East China market has increased. The price of TDI in East China market increased by 0.71% on 31st to 14166.67 yuan/ton. The overall atmosphere of TDI market in East China has remained depressed, the volume of real transactions has been depressed, the mindset of traders is different, and the price of high and low prices coexist. Domestic goods with tickets out of the warehouse offer reference 13500-13700 yuan/ton, Shanghai goods with tickets out of the warehouse offer reference 13700-13900 yuan/ton, a single talk, mainly practical negotiations.

Industry chain: Compared with the previous trading day, the listed price of toluene of Sinopec’s enterprises today remains unchanged. Shandong Geotechnical Refining Company’s listing price was raised by about 50 yuan/ton today. Traders’quotations fluctuated slightly today. The quotations in East China ranged from 5,480 to 5,500 yuan per ton. As for nitric acid, the market demand is still acceptable and the market is stable for the time being.

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Industry: According to market information, Gansu Yinguang two sets of TDI devices totaling 100,000 tons stopped for maintenance on August 5 for a month. Last week, the domestic TDI market fell first and then rose. The factories were flat and stable. The pressure of the traders was low. With the instability of Wanhua plant and the announcement of Yinguang maintenance plan, the TRADERS’mentality boosted the offer. Basf and Wanhua announced the closing price one after another. The traders watched cautiously.

III. Price Forecast

TDI business analysts believe that short-term domestic TDI market range consolidation, focus on factory information surface guidance.

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July Perspective of Pure Benzene (July 1-31, 2019)

Price Trend

According to the data of the business associations’big list, the increase of pure benzene is larger this month. It rose strongly in the first half of July and began to decline in the second half of July. At the beginning of this month, the price of pure benzene was around 4750-4850 yuan/ton, and at the end of this month, the price of pure benzene was between 5000-5350 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.1% per month. The highest price of this month appeared on July 22. The price ranged from 5250 to 5350 yuan/ton, with a maximum increase of 9.13%.

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II. Analytical Review

1. Crude oil: In July, European and American crude oil prices rose first and then fell. Oil distribution fell by 4.27% compared with the end of last month, while U.S. crude oil fell by 2.74% compared with the end of last month. At the beginning of this month, oil prices rose to their highest level on July 10 due to the extension of OPEC production reduction agreement, the continuous decline of U.S. crude oil stocks and the reduction of nearly one third of U.S. offshore crude oil production by the Gulf of Mexico storm. Oil and gas production resumed after the Gulf of Mexico storm. EIA data show that the increase in U.S. refined oil inventories has deepened market concerns about economic slowdown and oil prices have fallen sharply. At the end of the month, the Fed’s desire to cut interest rates increased and crude oil prices in Europe and the United States rebounded slightly.

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2. Products: At the beginning of this month, the domestic price of pure benzene began to rise because of the sharp decline in the stock of pure benzene ports and the sharp decrease in imports. In addition to the shortage of pure benzene supply in the United States, the price of pure benzene in the U.S. dollar disk has been rising, stimulating the domestic market, pure benzene all the way up to the highest price on the 22nd. Later downstream of high-price pure benzene resistance is strong, the demand support is insufficient, the external market continued to weaken, leading to a rapid decline in domestic pure benzene Market prices.

3. Downstream: Affected by cost pressures, the price of aniline in the lower reaches its highest value on July 22, up 6%. In the latter half of this month, the price of pure benzene declined, and aniline followed the decline. The price of downstream styrene began to rise in mid-term due to the reduction of inventory, which was affected by the cost and terminal sales pressure. Businessmen were in an empty mood, yielding profits and delivering styrene. The price of olefin has fallen sharply. This month, downstream enterprises have greater resistance to the high price of pure benzene, and the demand follow-up is insufficient.

III. Future Market Forecast

1. Crude oil: Influenced by the Fed’s desire to cut interest rates, the success of Sino-US trade negotiations and the persistence of supply risks in the Persian Gulf, international oil prices may continue to rise in the near future, but the increase is still limited.

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2. Domestic market: Many provinces have issued notifications of stoppage, production restriction and transportation restriction of chemical enterprises. The downstream start-up rate will be reduced and the pure benzene market will be affected.

Considering comprehensively, it is expected that the price of pure benzene will be lowered in the near future, paying particular attention to the market of industrial chain.

Cryolite market prices were stable this week (7.22-7.26)

Price Trend

According to the data of business associations, the price trend of cryolite market was stable this week, and the average price of cryolite market was stable at about 6333.33 yuan/ton in the week, down 4.45% from the same period last year.

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II. Market Analysis

Product: Cryolite prices are running smoothly this week, and there is no price adjustment for manufacturers. Up to the 26th, Zibo Kunyu Industry and Trade Cryolite quoted 6500 yuan/ton; Changshu Hongjiafu Co., Ltd. Cryolite quoted 7300 yuan/ton; Jiaozuo Minli Industrial Cryolite quoted 7000 yuan/ton; Zhengzhou Tianrui Cryolite quoted 6500 yuan/ton; Shandong Botao Group Co., Ltd. Cryolite quoted 7000 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: The domestic fluorite market price trend is stable this week. The average domestic market price is about 3150 yuan/ton, up 17.10% year-on-year. This week, domestic fluorite price trend is temporarily stable, the start-up rate of fluorite plant has not changed much, but the downstream demand situation is general, the spot supply of fluorite is normal, affected by many factors, fluorite price trend is stable. Downstream electrolytic aluminium: This week, the price of aluminium has been on the upstream trend. At the beginning of the week, the price remained around 13866.67 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, it was about 13930.00 yuan/ton. The price increased by 0.0.46% in the week.

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3. Future Market Forecast

Analysts of cryolite products of business associations believe that: at present, the device is running normally, the manufacturers have sufficient inventory and no pressure, the ex-factory quotation is temporarily stable, and the market of cryolite is expected to operate steadily in the later period.

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MTBE market prices rose this week (July 21-July 27)

Price Trend

Business associations: MTBE market prices rose this week (July 21-July 27)

According to data from business associations, MTBE’s price this weekend was 531 yuan/ton, up 2.57% from the previous week’s price.

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II. Market Analysis

Products: Gasoline market prices have risen by 2.58%. Domestic MTBE market is rising this week.

Industry chain: In Shandong, oil companies in Zibo region fermented the news of staggered peak and limited production from August to September of the week. The oil market was buoyant, MTBE manufacturers shipped smoothly and MTBE market rose as a whole. However, with the MTBE price rising to a high level, downstream purchasing intention tended to be cautious, and there was a slight pullback later this week in South China. MTBE manufacturers in the region are still mainly supply-oriented, the market spot is very tight, manufacturers shipment is not under pressure, there is still a sustained upward movement.

3. Future Market Forecast

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MTBE product analysts from the Energy Branch of Business Cooperatives believe that the downstream purchasing intention of MTBE has weakened significantly after the price hike, and the domestic MTBE market price is expected to fall first and then rise next week.

Benzene prices rose slightly this week (July 15-July 19, 2019)

Price Trend

According to the data from the business associations’list, the domestic pure benzene’s growth slowed down this week, rising by about 100 yuan/ton from last week. This week, the highest price of pure benzene appeared on Friday, with the price between 5250 and 5350 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.48% compared with last week.

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II. Analytical Review

1. Products: This week’s rise in pure benzene slowed down. At the beginning of the week, the situation continued last week, and the domestic pure benzene market was boosted by the favorable factors of the continuous decline of port stocks and the continued rise of pure benzol US dollar plate. On Tuesday, the close of the benzo dollar market plunged and continued to fall, damaging the bullish mood of market participants. Due to the lower external market, the domestic market lacks the driving force for speculation.

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2. Crude oil: Oil and gas production began to recover this week after the Gulf of Mexico storm, and oil prices began to retreat from last week’s rise. In addition, data released by EIA on Wednesday showed that although U.S. crude oil inventories declined for five consecutive weeks, the significant increase in refined oil inventories meant that demand slowed down and oil prices in Europe and the United States began to plunge. Brent oil prices fell nearly 9% compared with last week, and WTI oil prices fell about 8%.

3. Downstream: The price of styrene in the downstream of this week dropped by 3.35% compared with last week, which has little effect on the price of pure benzene. Downstream aniline rose by 3.01% from last week.

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4. Outside: This week, the price of pure benzene in the United States dropped sharply, hitting the bullish mood of the market.

3. Future Market Forecast

1. Crude Oil: Next week, EIA lowered global crude oil demand expectations, market concerns about trade risks remain, coupled with poor performance of U.S. stocks, European and American crude oil may continue to decline.

2. Domestic market: Due to the continuous decline of the external market and the narrowing of the price gap between the internal and external markets, the domestic pure benzene market lacks the incentive to continue to speculate.

Considering comprehensively, the pure benzene market will run steadily next week.

China’s domestic sulphur market prices fell narrowly this week (7.15-7.19)

Price data

According to the data of business associations, the domestic sulfur market price declined narrowly this week. At the beginning of the week, the average ex-factory price of granular sulfur was around 943.33 yuan/ton. At the end of the week, the average ex-factory price was about 900.00 yuan/ton. Within the week, it fell by 4.59%, down by 17.09% compared with the previous year.

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II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the domestic sulphur market continued to be weak, the price trend was down, the contradiction between supply and demand in the market is still the same, there is no news guide inside and outside the market, there is a strong atmosphere of stalemate and wait-and-see, the enthusiasm of terminal purchasing is weak, refineries in various regions fell appropriately according to their own shipment situation within the week, by 20-70 yuan/ton. As of the 19th, the mainstream price of solid sulfur in Sinopec’s Shandong region was around 960-970 yuan/ton, while that of liquid sulfur was 770-820 yuan/ton; that of solid sulfur in North China was 750-820 yuan/ton, and that of liquid sulfur was 720-800 yuan/ton; that of solid sulfur in East China was 770-900 yuan/ton and that of liquid sulfur was 770-900 yuan/ton. The mainstream price is 770-850 yuan/ton.

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Industry chain: This week, the price trend of sulfuric acid Market in Shandong province was slightly lower. The main stream of sulfuric acid negotiations were stable, and local flexible rises and falls. On the 19th, the main distribution price of sulphuric acid in Shandong fell slightly: Heze Jiangyuan quoted 230 yuan/ton, the quotation was temporarily stable; Jinan Yuanfei quoted 450 yuan/ton, the quotation was temporarily stable; Zouping Tianlu quoted 130 yuan/ton, the quotation slightly dropped by 20 yuan/ton; Dezhou Meihua quoted 170 yuan/ton, the quotation was temporarily stable. The sulphuric acid market has a cold trading atmosphere, the customers’enthusiasm for sulphuric acid purchasing is general, the market demand is weak, the merchants’ mentality is cautious, and the sulphuric acid ex-factory price in the future is low.

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3. Future Market Forecast

Business sulfur analysts believe that the current sulfur market is still cold, the enthusiasm of on-site negotiations is weak, the atmosphere of stalemate and wait-and-see is strong, and it is expected that the short-term sulfur market will maintain a weak consolidation.

Fluorite prices in China have stabilized temporarily this week (7.15-7.19)

I. Market Review

According to statistics, this week’s domestic fluorite market price trend is temporarily stable, the weekend price is 3150 yuan / ton, which is equal to 3150 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 16.88% year-on-year, and the recent fluorite price trend is stable.

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II. Market Analysis

This week, domestic fluorite price trend is temporarily stable, the operating rate of fluorite plant has not changed much, but the downstream demand is normal, the spot supply of fluorite is general, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia is 2900-3100 yuan/ton by the end of the weekend, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian is 3000-3300 yuan/ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan is 97 yuan/ton. The price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi is 3000-3300 yuan/ton, and the price trend of fluorite is temporarily stable. Fluorite farm started to maintain normal levels, recent downstream demand is normal, affected by many factors, fluorite price trend is stable.

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Industry chain: The market price of hydrofluoric acid in downstream fluorite is stable this week. The factory price of hydrofluoric acid is 12080 yuan/ton by the end of the week. Maintaining the market price of hydrofluoric acid in downstream is a good influence on the fluorite market, and the price trend of fluorite is stable. Recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, downstream refrigerant product plant operating rate is not ideal, upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is general, refrigerant market trading market is cold, R22 refrigerant plant surface operating situation is not high, R22 market device operating rate is low, the main production enterprise bulk water factory offer price is 18,000-18,500 yuan. / Between tons, but the production enterprises do not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipped. In addition, the actual demand side of the market is low, and the shipping market trend is poor. The domestic market price of R134a has slightly declined, the start-up rate of production enterprises has not changed much, the market demand for refrigerants has weakened, and manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the on-site transaction price does not change much. Businessmen purchase on demand. Recently, due to the general downstream start-up situation, the upstream market demand for hydrofluoric acid is limited, and the price of fluorite market is stable.

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Industry: This week, the upstream fluorite industry started construction in general, hydrofluoric acid price trend is stable, the spot supply of fluorite products is normal, fluorite market price trend is temporarily stable.

3. Future Market Forecast

In the future, domestic fluorite plants have started normal in the near future, the market price of downstream hydrofluoric acid industry is stable, and the market of downstream refrigeration industry is general. Chen Ling, a fluorite analyst from business associations, thinks that the manufacturers in the fluorite field reflect the normal supply of goods and expect the price to remain oscillating in the later period, or the price may be 3100-3200 yuan/ton.

This week’s narrow volatility in the Styrene Market (7.08-7.12)

Price Trend

Styrene prices fell this week. According to data from business associations, the prices of sample enterprises were 9016.67 yuan/ton on Monday (July 08), 8966.67 yuan/ton on Friday (July 12), a decline of 0.55%, and 19.73% compared with the same period last year.

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II. Market Analysis

Products:

This week, the market price of styrene is narrow and the market supply is general. On July 08, East China Styrene closed at 9000 yuan/ton, and on July 12, East China Styrene closed at 8900-9000 yuan/ton, down by about 100 yuan/ton. The above price is Zhangjiagang’s canning price. On July 08, South China Styrene closed at 9,200 yuan/ton for delivery, and on July 12, South China Styrene closed at 9,100 yuan/ton for delivery, down by 100 yuan/ton for delivery at above factories. The styrene market fluctuated narrowly. By Friday, the stock of East China’s styrene port declined, but the overall supply of styrene increased slightly. Overall, this week, it fell steadily and moderately.

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Industry chain:

Upstream crude oil market strengthened this week, ethylene rose slightly, pure benzene rose sharply, styrene production cost support gradually improved. Downstream enterprises, temporarily maintaining just demand, wait-and-see majority, continue to bear the dual pressure of cost and terminal sales, start-up rate decline more or less, from the overall start-up rate level, still maintain low demand-oriented. The supply and demand deadlock is difficult to break, and the market lacks strong support.

3. Prospects for the Later Period

The periphery remained volatile this week, oil prices rose over the weekend, and the impact of the periphery on the petrochemical market was mostly negative. Domestic production enterprises have stabilized and have followed the market downward quotation operation. Businessmen in the market have increased their wait-and-see atmosphere and divergent market trends in different places. Styrene business analysts believe that in the current market conditions, upstream cost prices are temporarily stable, downstream terminal digestion pressure, receipt intention is weak, styrene support weakened, and market bearish sentiment spread. There is no strong support in the styrene market as a whole, and the price of styrene is expected to remain narrow next week.

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China’s domestic ethanol market has different ups and downs (7.8-7.12)

Price Trend

The domestic ethanol market rose and fell unevenly this week. According to the monitoring data of business associations, the domestic ethanol market price at the beginning of the week was 5370 yuan/ton, which was 1.45% lower than the same period last year.

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II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the alcohol market has gone up and down differently. East China and Central China downward. Large factories in Northeast China mostly enter the inspection and repair, enterprises mostly take turns to repair, enterprise inventory is still acceptable, enterprise quotation performance is firm, downstream centralized procurement is basically over. Henan Province suffered from the impact of low-price goods in Northeast China, the price fell slightly; Sichuan enterprises quoted stable prices, large factories had maintenance plans at the end of the month, and short-term market prices remained firm; East China also suffered from the impact of low-price goods in Northeast China, the price of cassava continued to rise, enterprises in East China continued to reduce construction, and Su. With the passage of time, the amount of raw molasses in South China continues to decrease, enterprises are unwilling to sell low-end prices slightly increase, water-free sales in North China is still acceptable, and the Northeast general-grade supply will soon enter South China.

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Industry chain: Upstream, the average weekly price of Maize in Jilin region of Northeast China closed at 1730 yuan/ton, down 0.28% from last week’s price. The price of dried cassava chips in upstream Thailand keeps rising, mainly due to the current season of fresh cassava production. Cassava enters the starch market more and dried chips export less. Up to now, FOB 235-240 US dollars/ton, theoretical port price in eastern China is 1900-1920 yuan/ton. Domestic enterprises are affected by weak downstream demand. Parking to avoid the market, raw material procurement is not good. Downstream, the price of ethyl acetate in East China rose by 2.62% on Thursday, 5,215 yuan per ton, compared with last week.

3. Future Market Forecast

Since this week, Northeast big factories have stepped into overhaul one after another. Supply reduction has boosted the market or reflected in the next week’s market. However, considering the current inventory situation and demand situation of liquor enterprises, there is little room for short-term pull-up operation, and the market is expected to remain stable. Under summer weather, terminal chemical enterprises are insufficient to enter the market, liquor is also in the off-season of sales, the demand for ethanol shows a downward trend, affecting the bidding sentiment of the operators. Ethanol analysts at business associations expect the domestic ethanol market to remain stable in the short term.

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The price of yellow phosphorus has surged unprecedentedly

On July 12, 2019, the concept stocks of phosphorus chemical industry in the market were really excellent, with an average increase of 6.6%. Among them, Chengxing shares, six chemical companies rose and stopped, and other shares followed. Among them, Chengxing shares are already three contiguous boards, leading the board to become a hot spot in the market. In the current market which lacks the hot spots of rotation, the emergence of new concepts is often warmly sought after by the market.

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The logic behind the concept of phosphorus chemical industry is simple and violent enough. That is the unprecedented surge in yellow phosphorus prices in the domestic market. According to the Wind database, yellow phosphorus prices were still 15,500 yuan per ton on Tuesday, but soared on Wednesday to 17,000 yuan per ton, and reached 20,000 yuan per ton on Thursday, yesterday. In just three days, the price of yellow phosphorus soared by 4,500 yuan per ton, up 29%.

Generally speaking, yellow phosphorus production does not have strong barriers, or even very simple. In short, we only need to put phosphate ore, silica and coke into the electric furnace in a certain proportion, decompose and reduce at 1000 degrees of high temperature, and then cool and rinse the phosphorus vapor and dust to get yellow phosphorus.

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Through this production process, we can know that one of the main costs of yellow phosphorus production is electricity. The electricity consumption per ton of yellow phosphorus is about 15,000 degrees, and because of the low cost of hydropower, yellow phosphorus production prefers water and electricity. Therefore, the price of yellow phosphorus is generally affected by electricity and Hydropower charges, and there are seasonal fluctuations, such as the high water period in June-August, the low production cost of yellow phosphorus, the high start-up rate of enterprises, the increase of supply, and the price is relatively stable. Therefore, it is still early July, and the soaring price of yellow phosphorus in recent days is obviously not affected by the season.

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As mentioned above, the production of yellow phosphorus likes to use water and electricity, so the producers of yellow phosphorus prefer to open their factories in areas with regional advantages, such as along rivers. Because along the river, there will be black-hearted businessmen in order to save money by secretly discharging production waste directly into the river. Recently, CCTV Focus Interview exposed the pollution problem of yellow phosphorus plants in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. The tail gas from electric furnace of yellow phosphorus plants was directly discharged into the atmosphere, and wastewater containing phosphorus was discharged wantonly.

This is a big problem. According to Cao Liping, Director of the Bureau of Ecological Environment Law Enforcement, the Yangtze River Economic Zone concentrates most of China’s phosphorus chemical production capacity, and the regulation of “three phosphorus” is one of the most important elements in the battle of protecting and restoring the Yangtze River. The Ministry of Ecological Environment strives to find out the quantity of “three phosphorus” in two years and complete the environmental improvement of yellow phosphorus enterprises first this year.

We know that in Yunnan-Guichuan region of the Yangtze River Basin, the yellow phosphorus production capacity accounts for 90% of the country’s total.

Therefore, in the current state vigorously grasp the general trend of environmental protection, the irregular yellow phosphorus production enterprises directly hit the muzzle. Therefore, we can foresee that in the future, there will be a large number of irregular yellow phosphorus production enterprises will be shut down or rectified in the near future. At the same time, with the end of the flood season, supply will be further tightened. In addition, the current domestic market stock is not much, yellow phosphorus prices are bound to rise. Therefore, at present, many enterprises in production are reluctant to sell, so they will not report directly. And the quoted companies directly overwhelmed the price, so there is a two-day surge in yellow phosphorus prices.

For investment opportunities, if the price of yellow phosphorus is still in its current position or moving higher, then the most beneficial thing is to have a large amount of yellow phosphorus stocks, or enterprises whose production of yellow phosphorus is unaffected. In addition, the downstream of yellow phosphorus is mainly used for phosphoric acid, phosphate, red phosphorus, phosphorus trichloride, phosphorus pentosulfide and so on. Driven by the rising price of yellow phosphorus, it is expected to drive up the prices of organophosphorus herbicides such as glyphosate, glyphosate, phosphorus ammonium, and organophosphorus insecticides such as chlorpyrifos and trichlorfon. We can keep an eye on the subject matter.

In addition, other chemical products manufacturers with similar production modes as yellow phosphorus may face similar situations in the future, so we might as well study them in depth.