In 2019, the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province rise first and then fall

1、 Market Overview

 

According to the data of the commodity list of business association, the formaldehyde Market in Shandong Province rose first and then fell in 2019. At the beginning of the year, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province was 1175.00 yuan / ton, and the highest point was March 20. The average price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province was 1443.33 yuan / ton. At the end of the year, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province was 1160.00 yuan / ton, with a comprehensive annual decline of 26.56 yuan / ton. The current price dropped by 10.56% year on year.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

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In 2019, the formaldehyde Market in Shandong Province rose first and then fell. The first stage is from the beginning of the year to the middle of February. Before and after the Spring Festival, the formaldehyde price is stable, with occasional small drop. The price remains at 1125-1180 yuan / ton. The second stage is from late February to early April. After the Spring Festival, the methanol market is affected by the macro and port inventory. Under the support of cost, the formaldehyde price is rising. On February 18, the formaldehyde price is 1125 yuan / ton, and on April 1, the formaldehyde price is 1600 yuan / ton, up 37.78%. The third stage is from April 2 to mid May. In April, the methanol market affected by the arrival of imported goods in April showed a “waterfall” decline, which led to a sharp drop in formaldehyde price. On April 2, the formaldehyde price was 1550 yuan / ton, and on May 10, the formaldehyde price was 1130 yuan / ton, a 27.10% drop. The fourth stage is from the middle of May to the beginning of September. The safety and environmental protection inspection continues to be strict. The upstream methanol price is generally stable and slightly fluctuating. Occasionally, it rises or falls quickly and recovers. The impact on formaldehyde is limited. The price of formaldehyde fluctuates and is consolidated. The price remains at 1100-1200 yuan / ton. The fifth stage is from the beginning of September to the beginning of October. Driven by the golden nine silver ten traditional peak season, the price of formaldehyde rose slightly. Influenced by the recent surge in crude oil, methanol futures and the expected production of methanol to olefin, the upstream methanol market rose again in line with some downstream stock up before the national day. Supported by favorable supply and demand, the price of formaldehyde rose. In early September, the price of formaldehyde was 1160 yuan / ton, while in early October, the price of formaldehyde was 1320 yuan / ton, up 13.39%. The sixth stage is from the middle of October to now. The upstream methanol is affected by the sharp drop of domestic methanol futures and the continuous pressure of port inventory, unable to provide formaldehyde support. The downstream operation rate is affected by environmental protection control, and the formaldehyde price continues to decline. In the middle of October, the formaldehyde price is 1286.67 yuan / ton, and on December 27, the formaldehyde price is 1060 yuan / ton, down 17.62%.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Recently, the upstream methanol continued to decline, the cost side support was unfavorable, the market trading was light, the downstream market operating rate was average, and the demand side and cost side support were weak, so the formaldehyde analyst of the chemical branch of business society predicted that the domestic formaldehyde price or low consolidation was the main trend in the near future.

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The market price of maleic anhydride continued to rise in December

1、 Price trend

 

Business agency: maleic anhydride market continued to rise in December

 

According to the data of business agency, the average price of maleic anhydride as of December 30 was 7700.00 yuan / ton (including tax), up and down 4.52% compared with 7366.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

 

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On December 30, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 72.54, which was the same as yesterday, 41.34% lower than the highest point 123.67 (December 26, 2017), and 29.14% higher than the lowest point 56.17 on February 16, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

 

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

 

Product: maleic anhydride market continued to rise in December. In December, most of the major domestic maleic anhydride factories operated normally. This month, the spot inventory of maleic anhydride was tight, driving the price of maleic anhydride up. At present, maleic anhydride is in stable operation for the time being. Middlemen and downstream have strong wait-and-see mood for the future market, and the market is generally traded.

 

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Industrial chain: crude oil rose in December. The downstream unsaturated resin operates stably, and the terminal demand is general. At present, some factories have parking plans,. According to the monitoring of business association, at present, the operating rate of hydrogenated benzene enterprises is lower than that in the earlier stage, the price difference between crude benzene and hydrogenated benzene is narrowed, the loss of hydrogenated benzene enterprises is increased, there are many maintenance plans in the near future, some units may reduce the operating rate, the price of hydrogenated benzene in East China is 5750-5800 yuan / ton, and that in Shandong is about 5550-5600 yuan / ton. The price of n-butane continued to rise this month.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

According to analysts of maleic anhydride products of business association, at present, maleic anhydride stock is limited, but there is a strong wait-and-see mood in the downstream. In addition, it is expected that the maleic anhydride market will run in a weak position in January due to the proximity of resin parking cycle.

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Adipic acid market was weak and stable at the end of the month (12.23-27)

1、 Price trend

 

Adipic acid market trend chart

 

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, last week (12.23-27), the domestic adipic acid market remained stable, and the dealer’s quotation partially went up, with a small range. Up to 200 yuan / ton, the mainstream quotation by the end of last week was generally 8000-8200 yuan / ton.

 

2、 Analysis and comment

 

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Last week, the adipic acid market continued to stand still, with little change in prices in most regions, and some of the prices rose. On the basic level, loose supply and weak demand are still the main factors that hinder the adipic acid to get out of the weak situation. The improvement of the cost side did not bring a rebound in the downstream adipic acid market, but increased the dilemma of enterprise profit contraction. At present, the downstream demand for adipic acid has not improved. In addition, the social inventory pressure has not been alleviated. The market has not reversed the upward momentum. The enterprise inventory and market inventory are still at a high level. This is the main reason why the price of adipic acid has not rebounded. In terms of region: the prices in East China and South China are still low, and some dealers are slightly weak, but the range is limited to 50-100 yuan / ton. The market atmosphere is a little cold, dealers actively give priority to profit delivery, and the market maintains a weak and volatile pattern. At present, the downstream market still generally holds a wait-and-see attitude, and the transaction is slightly deadlocked. In addition, on the upstream cost side, although pure benzene ended the downward trend of shocks, as of December 27, the rebound of this month was more than 8%, but the cost transmission effect was lagging behind, which did not bring much positive effect to the adipic acid market. On the contrary, with the price of pure benzene rising, the profits of adipic acid manufacturers were compressed, and at the same time, they were trapped in the weak demand, and the price did not Rising, this confirms the extremely weak market situation.

 

Trend chart of pure benzene Market

 

First of all, from the perspective of supply side, the overall supply pressure of the market is still large, the inventory of manufacturers and the market is still high, and the pressure of dealers is large, which is largely affected by the downturn of downstream purchase orders. In the early stage of adipic acid rise, dealers have accumulated a large number of sources of goods, and the inventory pressure is large. In addition, the main reason why adipic acid price didn’t go out of the weak market is that the plant operating rate is high, the export market is depressed and the supply pressure is too high.

 

PA66 market trend chart

 

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In terms of demand, year ago, the downstream procurement was not strong. At present, the downstream centralized stocking behavior did not appear. Most of the downstream procurement was on demand, and the enthusiasm for stocking was not high. In December, the nylon 66 market was depressed, and the downstream operating rate continued to fall, basically below 50%, which did not form a strong boost to the upstream adipic acid. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the downstream PA66 of adipic acid has been monitored since September In the second half of this month, the price of PA66 continued to decline, with a range of – 1.96% (as shown in the above figure). PA66 has not improved in the near future. The downturn in the downstream market of adipic acid is the decisive factor for adipic acid to get out of the dilemma.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Adipic acid analysts from the chemical branch of business society think that adipic acid will continue to run in a stalemate in the near future. It is unlikely that the price will reverse in the middle and later stages. On the one hand, we should pay attention to the effect of market de stocking, on the other hand, we should pay attention to whether the downstream demand can follow up. But in the near future, the price of pure benzene in the upstream will rise. As the cost effect is transmitted to the terminal, adipic acid may come out The market is rebounding slightly.

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Price of pure benzene rose first and then fell this week (December 23-27, 2019)

1、 Price trend

 

 

This week, pure benzene rose first and then fell, according to a large number of data from the business club. The listing price of pure benzene on Friday is 5700-5950 yuan / ton, up 2.08% from 5700-5900 yuan / ton on Friday. The highest price of this week is from Tuesday to Friday, and the price is 5800-5950 yuan / ton.

 

2、 Analysis and comment

 

1. Product: this week’s pure benzene port inventory continued to decline compared with last week, but the data showed that the inventory picked up in the middle of the week. In the week, Sinopec raised its listing price by 200 yuan / ton to 5950 yuan / ton, driving other enterprises to keep up. However, it is heard that there are large styrene factories in the downstream planning to shut down. In addition, enterprises in Shandong Province are not able to deliver goods smoothly. In the second half of the week, the market mentality is empty, and the price will drop slightly near the weekend.

 

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2. Crude oil: this week, crude oil continued to rise against the favorable background of improving trade relations and deepening OPEC production reduction. WTI was up 1.8% from December 20, and Brent was up 2.8%.

 

3. Foreign exchange: this week coincides with Christmas, the foreign exchange is light, the support is general; after the festival, the market has a certain recovery.

 

4. Related industries: styrene fell by 2.24% this week, with production losses of styrene enterprises; aniline rose by 0.76% this week with a small increase in cost, but the increase was limited by downstream demand.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

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1. Crude oil: next week, the overall trend of crude oil market is still upward, rising trend waiting for more good news from the market.

 

2. Market: the profit level of downstream product enterprises is low, and there is a large styrene plant planned to be overhauled, so the demand for pure benzene will be greatly affected. In addition, the closing of the arbitrage window of the Asian American market in the outer market has a negative impact.

 

On the whole, pure benzene is expected to weaken slightly next week.

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In the middle of December, the price of polyaluminium chloride decreased slightly

Commodity index: the polyaluminium chloride commodity index on December 20 was 101.80, flat with yesterday, down 6.61% from 109.01 (2019-08-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 0.89% from 100.90, the lowest point on December 19, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

 

Price quotation: according to the monitoring data of business agency (100ppi. Com), on December 20, 2019, the mainstream price of polyacrylamide (cation) market was about 15950 yuan / ton, and on December 11, the mainstream price of polyacrylamide (cation) market was 15933.33 yuan / ton. In the middle of this month, the price slightly increased by 0.1%, with a small range.

 

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Industry chain: upstream: at the beginning of December, the main quotation of acrylonitrile in the domestic market fluctuated and increased, with the quotation of 10500 yuan / ton on the first day and 12000 yuan / ton on the fourth day; however, it has been reduced by 700 yuan / ton since the mid day; 500 yuan / ton to 11500 yuan / ton on the ninth day, 150 yuan / ton to 11350 yuan / ton on the 16th day, and 50 yuan / ton to 11300 yuan / ton on the 20th day; since the second half of the year, propylene According to the market trend of nitrile, its high price appeared in the late September, and the price began to be lowered in a step-by-step manner in October. The overall five-month reduction was about 2000-3000 yuan / ton, with a shock range of about 15%. This month, the market shock first went up and then down. Downstream: in winter, the construction amount of water treatment project is relatively small, and the downstream procurement has a greater impact. Manufacturer: Gongyi factory, the main production area of Henan Province, received the notice last week and stopped production until January 1, 2020. The manufacturer has relatively sufficient stock. However, due to the shutdown of vehicles under the fifth five year plan and the increase of freight cost, the market price of polyacrylamide of the manufacturer has increased by 50 yuan / ton.

 

Industry: this round of intermittent production stoppage started in late July has basically ended, and the manufacturers have started to resume production one after another. This round of production stoppage cycle returns, and the production is stopped again in four seasons according to the requirements of environmental protection: in late July, recently, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises in Yong’an Road sub district office of Gongyi City, Henan Province received the notice of production stoppage, which requires: according to the environmental pollution status of the whole city and the pollution weather in the future According to the situation analysis, the municipal office requires all deep governance enterprises to stop production and governance before acceptance, and can resume production after dispatching or acceptance according to the office. 2. After resumption of production, the production will be stopped again: the production will be resumed for ten days in August, and it will be stopped again on 15th. According to the manufacturer, the production stop is more affected by the National Games held in Zhengzhou on September 8th. The local environmental protection inspection is strict, and all local enterprises in Gongyi are required to stop production for environmental protection treatment and maintenance. 3. After the National Games on September 8, the local manufacturers did not receive the notice of commencement immediately, and the strict inspection of environmental protection was in progress. In late September, local manufacturers in Gongyi began to resume production one after another, and the supply of goods gradually returned to normal. 4. On December 19, Gongyi, the main production area of Henan Province, issued an emergency notice, requiring all enterprises to stop production and all goods transportation from now until January 1, 2020 in accordance with the spirit of the 16th scheduling meeting of Gongyi City for environmental pollution control. Zhengzhou municipal leaders will lead the supervision group to continuously supervise and inspect the implementation of management and control. If it is found that the implementation is not in place, the person in charge of the enterprise and the truck driver will be detained. The enterprise will be included in the blacklist of integrity, and the enterprise will be subject to top-level punishment. This notice is very strict for manufacturers and freight requirements, and manufacturers should stop production.

 

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Future market forecast: the analysis of the business community shows that the construction in winter determines that the downstream procurement has little impact on the price of raw materials, and the price reduction in the middle of the year is conducive to the manufacturer’s control of production cost; the current impact on the market is the environmental protection control, the manufacturer in Gongyi, Henan Province stops production, the supply of goods is relatively sufficient, and the transportation cost leads to the general increase of the price. To sum up, polyacrylamide will maintain a small fluctuation trend in the future market, and pay attention to the stock situation in the future market and the requirements of environmental protection after new year’s day.

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The price of sulfuric acid in Shandong this week was temporarily stable (12.16-12.20)

1、 Price trend

 

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the selling price of sulfuric acid in Shandong Province was temporarily stable this week. The quotation is 273.33 yuan / ton, down 22.64% year on year. On the whole, sulfuric acid market is stable this week, with the sulfuric acid commodity index of 42.54 on December 20

 

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2、 Market analysis

 

(1) Products:

 

This week, the price of the mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers in Shandong is temporarily stable, with small inventory and general downstream demand. The weekend quotation of Heze Jiangyuan is 240 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; the weekend quotation of Zouping Tianlu is 130 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; the weekend quotation of Jinan Yuanfei is 450 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable.

 

(2) Industrial chain:

 

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In recent years, the domestic sulfur market continued to decline. The trading atmosphere in the downstream monoammonium market was not good, the trading volume was light, and the trading volume of new orders was not ideal. The market of diammonium was also low and consolidated, and the downstream demand was less. Sulfuric acid enterprises often issued early orders, short-term construction was insufficient, and the supply was slightly tight. This week, the domestic sulfuric acid plants operated smoothly, the market supply was relatively tight, the downstream gas buying was general, and the market turnover was limited.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

After the adjustment in November, the capital return of each plant is in good condition, the equipment maintenance is completed, and the production capacity is increased. The upstream sulfur price fell, the downstream construction was general, and the product trend fell under the contradiction between supply and demand. According to analysts of business association sulfuric acid, under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials, the market position of sulfuric acid is mainly consolidated.

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Record of precious metals in 2019

China’s gold consumption in the first three quarters fell 9.58% year on year

 

In the first three quarters of this year, the actual consumption of gold in China was 768.31 tons, down 9.58% compared with the same period in 2018, according to data released by China Gold Association on the 30th. Among them, the consumption of gold jewelry is 523.25 tons, down 2.9% year on year; the consumption of gold bars is 154.95 tons, down 26.51%; the consumption of gold coins is 10.9 tons, down nearly 40% year on year; the demand for industrial and other gold is 79.21 tons, down 3.28%.

 

Global gold demand rose 3% year on year in the third quarter

 

Global gold demand grew slightly to 1107.9 tons in the third quarter of 2019 (1079.0 tons in the same period of 2018), up 3% year-on-year, mainly due to strong gold ETF inflows offsetting other weaker gold demand. The latest “gold demand trend report” shows that the total position of global gold ETF in the third quarter rose 258 tons to 2855 tons, the highest single quarter net inflow since the first quarter of 2016. 1079.0 tons in the same period of 2018;

 

In the third quarter, the total demand for gold consumption was 611.2 tons, 844.4 tons in the same period of 2018; the total demand for gold investment increased by 110% to 408.6 tons, 194.4 tons in the same period of 2018; the total demand for global gold jewellery fell by 16% to 460.9 tons, 546.2 tons in the same period of 2018; the total demand of central banks fell by 38% to 156.2 tons, 253.1 tons in the same period of 2018; the total demand for science and technology gold fell by 4% to 82.2 tons, 85.4 tons in the same period of 2018 Tons; the total supply of gold was 1222.3 tons, up 4% from 1179.7 tons in the same period of 2018; the supply of recovered gold increased by 10% to 353.7 tons, up 320.6 tons in the same period of 2018

 

China’s gold reserves ended October at 62.64 million ounces

 

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China’s gold reserves at the end of October were 62.64 million ounces (about 1948.32 tons), compared with 62.64 million ounces (about 1948.32 tons) at the end of September, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange announced Thursday. In dollar terms, China’s gold reserves at the end of October were 94.651 billion US dollars, compared with 93.045 billion US dollars at the end of September.

 

For the third time in the year! Fed cut interest rate by 25 basis points

 

On the afternoon of October 30 local time, the Federal Reserve announced to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.50% – 1.75%, the third time in the year since July and September this year. In a statement released at 2 p.m. on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve said: since September this year, the U.S. labor market remains strong and economic activity has been growing at a moderate rate. In recent months, the average new employment is still stable, and the unemployment rate is still very low. But household spending has been growing strongly, and business fixed investment and exports remain weak. At the same time, the average overall inflation rate in the past 12 months and the core inflation rate except for food and energy are all lower than 2%, while the survey shows that the long-term inflation expectations are almost unchanged.

 

Based on the policy objectives of the Federal Reserve, to ensure maximum full employment and stable inflation rate at 2%, the Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.50% – 1.75%. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said: we firmly believe that the rate cut is the right move, and the rate cut was approved by an 8-2 vote.

 

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Total global gold ETF holdings rose 385 tons (US $18.6 billion, 13.9%)

 

Total gold ETF positions in the world reached a record high in October, and their total size increased by 13.9% as of November this year. . driven by strong net inflows in the five months before November, the total gold ETF positions in the world rose by 385 tons (US $18.6 billion, 13.9%) by the end of November this year; the total gold ETF positions in North America rose by 206 tons, accounting for 54% of the global net inflows by the end of November in a2019, while those in Europe increased by 171 tons.

 

Peak value of gold spot rose 26.21% in the year

 

According to the data of business agency, as of December 20, 2019, the average price of domestic spot gold in East China market rose by 17.70% in the year, and the peak value in the year appeared in early September, up by 26.21% compared with the beginning of the year.

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Refrigerant R134a trend in the first half of December was stable (12.01-12.13)

I. price trend

 

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic refrigerant R134a price is temporarily stable this week. On December 13, the average ex factory price of the mainstream manufacturers was 23000, and the average price of the beginning of the month (01) was 23000 tons. The recent market is stable. On December 12, the R134a commodity index was 84.15, flat with yesterday, down 15.85% from the cycle’s highest point of 100.00 (2019-09-02), and up 1.47% from the lowest point of 82.93 on November 12, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-09-01 till now)

 

II. Market analysis

 

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Product: R134a market of refrigerant market is stable temporarily in the near future. At present, the demand peak of R134a in the automobile industry has passed, and the support is limited; while the market price of hydrofluoric acid at the raw material end has risen slightly, and the market has improved, the cost end of refrigerant R134a has strong support, and the price trend has maintained stable operation. As of December 13, the quotation of Quzhou Jiuzhou chemical R134a is 21000 yuan / ton, Zhejiang lengwang technology R134a is 22500 yuan / ton, Yuemei chemical R134a is 22000 yuan / ton, Longxun trade R134a is 21500 yuan / ton, Yumei chemical R134a is 23000 yuan / ton, blue planet R134a is 25000 yuan / ton, and the price is concentrated in 21000 yuan / ton – 25000 yuan / ton.

 

Industry chain: the domestic market price of upstream products of hydrofluoric acid and hydrofluoric acid rose slightly, the market improved, and the spot supply was normal. Terminal, air conditioning industry demand is not high, automobile industry stock season has passed, negative refrigerant R134a price.

 

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Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 9 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices on December 12, 2019, among which the top three commodities are aniline (2.77%), butanone (1.81%) and butadiene (0.86%). There are 7 kinds of commodities with a decline in the month on month, and the top 3 products were bisphenol A (- 3.62%), acetic anhydride (- 1.10%) and polyaluminium chloride (- 0.85%). The average increase and decrease of this day is 0.01%.

 

III. future forecast

 

According to the refrigerant analyst of the business agency, the stock season of the automobile industry has passed recently, and the terminal demand is general. However, the market price of hydrofluoric acid at the raw material end has increased slightly, and the cost end of refrigerant R134a is strongly supported. In addition, the supply of refrigerant is a little tight in the near future, so the price trend of R134a is stable.

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Weak adjustment of adipic acid market last week (12.9-13)

I. price trend

 
Adipic acid market trend chart

 

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, last week (12.9-13), the domestic adipic acid market trend was sluggish, maintaining a narrow adjustment pattern, with little price change, with a drop of 0.50%. As of the end of last week, the mainstream price was generally 7800-8000 yuan / ton.

 

II. Analysis and comment

 

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Last week, the market of adipic acid was stable and moving slightly, and the price in most regions was not changed much. On the basic level, loose supply and weak demand are still the main factors that hinder adipic acid to get out of the weak situation, and the benefits of cost side were not transmitted in time. At present, the weak demand in the downstream of adipic acid and the increase of supply only lead to the increase of social inventory pressure. Since October, the market has been in the stage of de stocking. The effect of de stocking for three consecutive months is not obvious. The enterprise inventory and market inventory still maintain a high level, which is closely related to the current low demand and low purchase, which is also that the price of adipic acid has not rebounded Important reasons. In terms of region: the prices in East China and South China are still low, and some dealers are slightly weak, but the range is limited to 50-100 yuan / ton. The market atmosphere is a little cold, dealers actively give priority to profit delivery, and the market maintains a weak and volatile pattern. At present, the downstream market still generally holds a wait-and-see attitude, and the transaction is slightly deadlocked. In addition, on the upstream cost side, although pure benzene has ended the downward shock pattern, the rebound rate last week was 6%, but the conduction effect of cost was lagging behind, which did not bring much positive effect to the adipic acid market. It is expected that the price of adipic acid will follow up at the end of the month due to the rise of cost side.

 

Trend chart of pure benzene Market

 

First of all, from the perspective of supply, the market is still dominated by overall oversupply, manufacturers and market stocks are still both high, and dealers are under great pressure, which is largely affected by the downturn of downstream purchase orders. In the early stage of adipic acid rise, dealers have hoarded a large number of sources of goods, and the inventory pressure is relatively high. In addition, the main reason why adipic acid price didn’t go out of the weak market is that the plant operating rate is high, the export market is depressed and the supply pressure is too high.

 
PA66 market trend chart

 

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In terms of demand, the downstream procurement did not improve significantly. In December, nylon 66 market was depressed, and the downstream operating rate continued to decline, basically below 50%, which did not form a strong boost to the upstream adipic acid. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the downstream PA66 of adipic acid has continued to decline since September. This month, the market trend was stable, slightly rebounded last week, but the strength was quite limited, As of December 13, the rebound was only 0.2% (as shown in the figure above), PA66 market has not improved in the near future, and the downturn in the downstream market of adipic acid is the decisive factor for adipic acid to get out of the dilemma.

 

III. future forecast

 

According to adipic acid analysts of business, social and chemical branch, adipic acid will maintain a weak market in the near future. It is unlikely that the price will reverse in the later period. On the one hand, we should pay attention to the effect of market de stocking, on the other hand, we should pay attention to whether the downstream demand can follow up. But in the near future, because the upstream pure benzene price has risen, with the cost effect transmitted to the terminal, adipic acid may There will be a small rebound.

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China’s domestic ethanol market continues to be strong

I. price trend

 

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of December 13, the average price of domestic ethanol market was 5540 yuan / ton, 1.47% higher than that of the same period last month, and 1.34% higher than that of the same period last year. The domestic ethanol market continued to rise, and the market in some regions was strong.

 

II. Market analysis

 

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Product: this week, the domestic ethanol market continued to be strong, with the average price rising to varying degrees compared with last week. At the beginning of the week, the ethanol market in East China increased with the increase of transportation cost, and the low inventory in the field, which led to the increase of liquor companies’ offer. In Northeast China, the price hike was the main reason, and the snowfall caused the problem of automobile transportation to be basically solved. However, due to the influence of heavy fog, high speed and speed limit, the goods were received slowly, and the on-site goods were gathered in many ports. The ethanol market in Henan Province showed strong performance, and the demand for water was increased, Cassava alcohol rose with less inventory, higher export of superior corn alcohol, and higher price of liquor companies; Shandong and Northern Jiangsu regions reported high price, mainly due to low inventory of liquor companies, difficult transportation in Northeast China, and lack of water supply. In the middle of the week, under the support of favorable supply, the offer was raised in East China. It was heard that there was snow in Northeast China, and the vehicles were hard to find. Fortunately, the snow was not heavy, and the impact was small. In Northern Jiangsu, the offer continued to rise, with low on-site operating rate, and most of it was imported. In Henan, the price of ethanol market was stable, the downstream trading atmosphere was good, and the price of alcohol was stable. In South China, the supply was low, and the offer was high In the south, the transition is stable temporarily, and there is a small increase intention. Short term domestic ethanol market high consolidation.

 

Industry chain: corn: with the weather clearing up, the shipments in North China increased significantly. The arrival of goods in Shandong increased significantly, reaching the 800 Taiwan pass again. On the one hand, the increase of the arrival volume is due to the impact of the weather in the past few days, the backlog of vehicles arrived in a centralized manner. On the other hand, with the weather improving, grassroots farmers and traders began to increase the volume of goods, and shipped at a temporarily stable price. The price of corn in Shandong basically remained stable. Only yingxuan alcohol reduced 10 yuan / ton due to the impact of the arrival of northeast third class grain, and other enterprises did not change. However, the grain supply in the market is increasing, and the local and surrounding areas in Shandong will gradually increase their shipments. According to the weather forecast, there will be rain and snow in North China in the near future, and the price decline is expected to be limited.

 

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Ethyl acetate: the domestic market of ethyl acetate is weak, the downstream substantial demand turns weak, and the purchase volume of ethyl acetate is gradually reduced, while the domestic spot supply of ethyl acetate is sufficient, which leads to the gradual accumulation of the supplier’s spot inventory and passive competition to reduce the price for shipment. However, Jiangsu Thorpe device failure alleviates the market bearish mentality, and it is expected that the ethyl acetate Market will remain stable for a while.

 

III. future forecast

 

It is estimated that the high-level consolidation of the inland market in the short term market will be difficult to alleviate the logistics in the Northeast in the short term. Large factories will basically gather at the port for shipment, the inventory of enterprises is not high, and the logistics price continues to rise. It is not ruled out that there will be enterprise price adjustment and profit-making logistics in the later period. However, the high-level consolidation of prices in East China and central China will be supported by the favorable supply side in the short term. A large chemical plant in East China will have maintenance plans in the later period The body date has not been announced yet. There is less local supply in South China and the raw material price is high. Ethanol analysts of business club expect that the domestic ethanol market will remain high in the short term.

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