According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic butadiene market trend in July 2025 is expected to be volatile, with a slight overall increase. From July 1st to 30th, the domestic butadiene market price increased from 9000 yuan/ton to 9300 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.33% during the period.

Early October: The domestic butadiene market fluctuated and fell in this cycle, dragged down by insufficient demand. In the later part of the week, the ex factory prices of main refineries were lowered one after another. Recently, the spot market supply on the supply side has been relatively sufficient, and the main production areas are actively exporting. There have been some unsold transactions in the market, and market transactions are slightly weak.
Mid cycle: The domestic butadiene market has fluctuated upward in this cycle, with low port inventory and slightly tight supply in recent times. With the increase in auction premium transactions of main refineries, the mentality of the spot market has strengthened, driving market quotations to rise all the way. From the demand side, downstream companies have shown good intentions to replenish inventory in the near future, which provides some support for market sentiment. As of July 14th, the self pickup price in East China is around 9100 yuan/ton.
Late period: The domestic butadiene market fluctuated upward in this cycle, and port inventories in East China have been running at a low level recently, boosting market sentiment. During the week, mainstream refineries in China generally transacted at a premium, further strengthening market sentiment and causing market prices to continue to rise. The demand side has shown stable performance recently and urgently needs to replenish inventory. Boosted by favorable supply, the butadiene market fluctuated upwards. As of the end of the month, due to poor downstream demand, the ex factory prices of main refineries have generally decreased, and the market price of butadiene has slightly fallen.
Cost wise: As of the 28th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $66.71 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $70.04 per barrel. During this round of price adjustment cycle, crude oil prices have mainly fluctuated. On the one hand, OPEC+is likely to complete its 2.2 million barrels per day production increase plan before the end of September. In addition, with the trade agreement reached between the United States and Japan, the international oil market trend has fallen slightly due to this news; On the other hand, there are still concerns in the market about the tariff negotiations between the United States and Europe, as well as factors such as the Middle East issue and disturbances in the European situation, causing the crude oil market to maintain a volatile trend.
Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec is 9400 yuan/ton as of the 30th. Recently, the comprehensive operating rate of the domestic butadiene industry has not changed much, and the overall supply is relatively stable.
On the demand side, the butadiene rubber market slightly rose in July. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of July 29th, the butadiene rubber market price in East China was 12210 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.30% from 11820 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the lowest point during the cycle was 8600 yuan/ton. The price of raw material butadiene fluctuates and rises, causing the cost center of butadiene rubber to shift upwards; The production of butadiene rubber has fluctuated slightly, and the pressure on the supply side still exists; Downstream tire production has slightly increased, mainly supporting the demand for butadiene rubber. As of July 29th, the mainstream prices for Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze Shunding in East China were 12000 to 12350 yuan/ton.

Market forecast: In terms of the future, the crude oil trend has been fluctuating recently, with limited guidance for the butadiene market and poor macro performance, resulting in insufficient support. Recently, some equipment on the supply side has plans to restart, and the market expects that the supply will be loose and weak in the future. The downstream synthetic rubber market on the demand side has recently shown an overall trend towards rigid demand, with no significant positive support from the demand side. Overall, under the influence of weak fundamentals, it is expected that the butadiene market will experience a weak and volatile trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 29th, the price of isooctanol was 7600 yuan/ton, fluctuating and consolidating from the high of 7550 yuan/ton on July 1st, with an increase of 0.66%. In July, the price of isooctanol stabilized at a high level, and there was an increase in equipment maintenance for isooctanol enterprises. The operating rate of isooctanol equipment slightly decreased to less than 80%, resulting in a decrease in isooctanol production and supply; Downstream plasticizer companies have seen a decline in production, resulting in a decrease in demand for isooctanol and weak supply and demand. As a result, the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and consolidated at a high level.

Downstream plasticizer DOP prices fluctuate and fall
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 29th, the DOP price was 7967.50 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 3.53% compared to the DOP price of 8259.17 yuan/ton on July 1st. In July, DOP production decreased, plasticizer production decreased, and plasticizer prices fluctuated and fell. The production of plasticizers has decreased, the demand for isooctanol is weak, and the price of isooctanol has risen to support the decline.
In July, DOP enterprises saw a significant decrease in construction, with the construction rate dropping from 60% in June to around 40% in mid month, and slowly recovering in late month. Overall, DOP production decreased in July, plasticizer production decreased, demand for isooctanol was weak, and the price of isooctanol supported the decline. With the resumption of DOP production in the latter half of the year, DOP production has increased, and demand for isooctanol has rebounded. It is expected that there will be increased support for the rise of isooctanol in the future market.
Future expectations
According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s octanol product, in terms of demand, the start of DOP equipment for plasticizer companies decreased in July, resulting in a decrease in DOP production and a decrease in demand for isooctanol. As plasticizer companies resume production, the demand for isooctanol will rebound, and the support for the future rise of isooctanol will increase; On the supply side, the equipment operation of isooctanol enterprises has decreased, and the supply of isooctanol has decreased. Overall, it is expected that the supply of isooctanol will decrease and demand will recover, and the price of isooctanol is expected to fluctuate and rise in the future.

At the end of the month, the asphalt market fluctuated. According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, the ex factory price of heavy-duty asphalt # 70 in Shandong region was 3670 yuan/ton on July 1st, and as of July 28th, the ex factory price in Shandong region was 3700 yuan/ton.

On the supply side, the United States allows Chevron to resume oil extraction in Venezuela or may increase the supply of asphalt raw materials. Specific data shows that the asphalt production rate has slightly decreased by about 30% compared to the same period last year in the past week, showing an improvement compared to the same period last year. It is reported that the domestic asphalt production in July is expected to be 2.55 million tons, an increase of 144000 tons compared to the previous month, with a growth rate of 6%, and an increase of 490000 tons compared to the same period last year, with a growth rate of 24%.
From a downstream perspective, the operating rates of various industries downstream of asphalt have mostly increased during the week. Among them, the operating rate of road asphalt has increased by 2% to 27% month on month, but it is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years, constrained by funding and high temperatures caused by rainfall.
Overall, the panic of the global trade war has eased, but the cloud of the global trade war has not completely dissipated. Recently, crude oil prices have fluctuated, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has mentioned that a new round of work plans for stabilizing growth in the top ten key industries (including petrochemicals, building materials, etc.) will be released one after another in the near future. Policies such as surveying the list of old petrochemical and chemical equipment and phasing out outdated equipment for 20 years are more conducive to long-term expectations, and their actual impact on recent months is limited.
The North China region has concentrated on delivering pre contracts, resulting in a significant increase in shipment volume. The national shipment volume has increased by 8% month on month to 270000 tons, which is at a relatively low level. The inventory of asphalt refineries has fallen and is still at a low level compared to the same period in recent years. The impact of rainfall at the end of the month has decreased, and it is expected that asphalt will fluctuate in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 25th, the average quotation price of domestic high-quality DMF enterprises was 4140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.53% compared to the same period last week. Currently, DMF manufacturers are under pressure, and the overall DMF market surged and fell in July. Currently, inventory is operating normally without pressure, and the mentality of operators is stable, with cautious operations and a strong wait-and-see atmosphere.
2、 Cause analysis
Market wise: In July, some DMF companies conducted equipment maintenance, and it is expected that the overall supply of DMF will decrease in August.
Upstream: The average market price of upstream methanol in the first half of the year was not ideal, lower than the same period last year. Due to macroeconomic policies, fluctuations in crude oil, and sudden market fluctuations, methanol prices were affected. It is expected that the fundamentals of the methanol market will increase and limit in August, with average demand, and the market will mainly maintain its current state.
3、 Future forecast
DMF analysts from Shengyi Society believe that DMF prices surged in early July, digesting the previous increase in prices. At the end of July, the DMF market mainly operated weakly, and the price fluctuation range was limited in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the mixed xylene market has fluctuated downward this week. From July 14 to July 21, 2025, the price of mixed xylene has decreased from 6050 yuan/ton to 5960 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.49%. The domestic xylene market has rebounded slightly after an overall decline in this cycle, and the overall trend is weak. The decline in crude oil prices during the cycle has dragged down market sentiment. Downstream demand in Shandong region is relatively weak, and although refineries have voluntarily lowered their quotations, transactions are still limited. As downstream PX companies enter the market to replenish inventory, the market has slightly rebounded. The East China region continued to operate weakly this week, with low inventory levels. With the reduction of refinery listing prices and market downturn in southern China, downstream demand tends to be more rigid.

On the cost side: During this cycle, crude oil prices have fluctuated at a low level. On the one hand, OPEC+is likely to maintain a significant increase in production in August and September, and the tension in the Middle East has eased compared to before. As a result of this news, the international oil market trend has declined; On the other hand, the market’s concerns about the US tariff negotiations have eased to some extent, and major institutions have a pessimistic view of the demand outlook. The demand side may be difficult to change, and the crude oil market remains weak. As of July 18th, international crude oil futures closed down. The settlement price of the September WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States is $66.05 per barrel. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September is $69.28 per barrel.
Supply side:
Sinopec’s xylene quotation summary shows that the company is currently operating normally, with stable production and sales. The company’s quotation remains unchanged from the previous day. As of July 14th, East China Company quoted 6150 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 5750-5950 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 6200-6250 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5700-5900 yuan/ton.
Demand side:
On July 21st, Sinopec Sales Company temporarily stabilized the price of xylene, with the current execution price of 7250 yuan/ton. This price is implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other units are operating stably and sales are normal. The price remains unchanged compared to July 14th. As of July 18th, the closing prices of the xylene market in Asia were $814-816/ton FOB Korea and $839-841/ton CFR China, an increase of $3/ton from July 11th.
Market forecast: The recent weak trend of crude oil prices has dragged down market sentiment. From the supply side, the recent arrival situation at the port is not good, and the market supply is tight, which will provide a certain boost to the market in the short term. On the demand side, the downstream chemical and oil blending sectors have shown weak performance, with limited support for replenishing essential inventory. Supported by favorable supply side conditions, it is expected that the market will rebound slightly in the short term, but without demand support, the upward space is expected to be limited.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the styrene market fluctuated and fell this week, with an average price of 7936 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 7846 yuan/ton over the weekend, a 1.13% decrease during the week.

On July 17th, international crude oil futures rose. The settlement price of the August WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $67.54 per barrel, an increase of $1.16 or 1.7%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September was $69.52 per barrel, an increase of $1.00 or 1.5%.
Cost aspect: In terms of crude oil news game, the price of pure benzene fell more or increased less during the week, and coupled with weak downstream demand for pure benzene, the price of pure benzene fell during the week. Continue to monitor crude oil, external market trends, and production and sales dynamics.
Supply and demand side: The styrene plant has experienced a decrease in load and short shutdowns, resulting in a reduction in the supply side, but port inventory continues to increase. In terms of demand, downstream 3S is in a low season of demand, with urgent procurement and insufficient support for styrene.
Styrene external market: On July 17th, the closing price of the styrene market in Asia fell by $5/ton, with closing prices of $885-895/ton FOB Korea and $895-905/ton CFR China..
Market forecast: The current fundamentals of the styrene market are weak and difficult to change, with some downstream losses expanding and the pressure of high finished product inventories continuing to reduce production. The supply and demand expectations for styrene are weak, and it is expected that the styrene market will operate weakly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic butadiene market fluctuated and fell this week. From July 7th to July 14th, the domestic butadiene market price increased from 8600 yuan/ton to 9166 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 6.59% during the cycle. The domestic butadiene market has fluctuated upward in this cycle, with low port inventory and slightly tight supply in recent times. With the increase in auction premium transactions of main refineries, the mentality of the spot market has strengthened, driving market quotations to rise all the way. From the demand side, downstream companies have shown good intentions to replenish inventory in the near future, which provides some support for market sentiment. As of July 14th, the self pickup price in East China is around 9100 yuan/ton.

Cost aspect: The international crude oil market has mainly fluctuated within the range of this cycle, with frequent fluctuations and limited impact on downstream markets. Market influencing factors have returned to the supply and demand side. As of July 11th, the settlement price of the August contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $68.45 per barrel. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September is $70.36 per barrel.
Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec is 9200 yuan/ton, with an increase of 300 yuan/ton this week.
The 160000 tons/year butadiene unit of Fushun Petrochemical is operating normally and there are no plans for export at the moment.
Demand side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market price of butadiene rubber has slightly increased recently. As of July 11th, the price of Shunding rubber by PetroChina East China Sales Company has been raised by 300 yuan/ton: Dushanzi Shunding reported 11700 yuan/ton, Daqing Shunding reported 11700 yuan/ton, Sichuan Shunding reported 11700 yuan/ton, and the East China warehouse has raised prices.
Market forecast: The recent crude oil trend has been volatile, with insufficient guidance for the butadiene market and minimal impact. This week’s trend is mainly influenced by supply and demand. From the supply side perspective, some domestic facilities have undergone maintenance, and there have been few recent ship arrivals, leading to slightly tight market expectations for supply. On the demand side, the overall downstream demand tends to be rigid, and downstream consumers have a strong resistance to high priced raw materials. Overall, it is expected that the butadiene market will continue to face significant upward resistance, with a mainly range oscillation trend.

In July, the domestic phenol market generally declined. According to data monitored by Business Society, the domestic phenol market price was 6680 yuan/ton on July 1st and 6605 yuan/ton on July 11th, a decrease of 1.12%.
Phenol spot is abundant, and traders held steady at the beginning of the month. Subsequently, as the industry chain fell, the market also declined, and terminal demand was cautious. With the market downturn, considering the slightly higher average price and stronger trend in raw materials, the downward trend slowed down in the middle of this week and gradually bottomed out. Terminal demand followed suit, and the market rebounded slightly.

In terms of ports, on the 11th, the total amount of phenol in East China was 22000 tons, including 10000 tons in transit. The operating rate of phenol ketone enterprises has decreased during the week, and the Dalian Hengli phenol ketone plant has reduced its load.
On July 11th, Sinopec East China listed at a price of 6650 yuan/ton.
As of the 11th, the phenol offers in various mainstream markets across the country are as follows:
Region./11 day quotation /Rising and falling in the first ten days
East China region / 6550./ -50
Shandong region / 6600./ -150
Surrounding areas of Yanshan Mountain / 6650./ -100
South China region / 6600./ -150
Business Society expects limited growth in the phenol market next week. Next week, we will pay attention to the export progress of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical. The overall downstream demand is stable, but the cost may be weak, and the cost side support is limited.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the TDI market in East China has been strong and rising this week. As of July 4th, the average market price in East China was 11866 yuan/ton, and as of June 30th, the average price was 11733 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.14% and a year-on-year decrease of 16.43%.

This week, TDI market suppliers have a strong willingness to raise prices and actively promote price increases. The market supply is tight, and traders are reluctant to sell at low prices, with a focus on fast in and fast out. The news of major factories raising prices within the week has landed. Further boost market confidence. Downstream on-demand procurement creates a strong resistance to high prices, and under the supply-demand game, TDI remains strong and upward.
Supply side: The 300000 ton/year TDI plant in Fujian will undergo maintenance on June 5th, lasting for 45 days.
Cost wise: The price of toluene has decreased, with an average price of 6070 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 5732 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 5.45% during the week. The downstream procurement atmosphere is quiet, and oil prices have been weak and fluctuating recently, which has limited support for toluene.
In terms of future analysis, TDI data analysts from Shengyi Society believe that with the news of price increases from major companies, it is expected that trading prices will follow suit, and the TDI market is expected to operate strongly in the short term.

The price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and consolidated in June

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of June 30th, the DOP price was 8259.17 yuan/ton, fluctuating and consolidating compared to the June 1st DOP price of 8250.83 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.10%. In June, DOP production decreased, and the operating rate of the plasticizer industry dropped below 60%. DOP prices remained stable at a high level, resulting in a decrease in plasticizer production. The price of raw material isooctanol fluctuated and stabilized, while phthalic anhydride prices fluctuated and fell. The cost support for plasticizers decreased, and plasticizer prices fluctuated and stabilized.
The price of raw material isooctanol fluctuated and consolidated in June
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of June 30th, the price of isooctanol was 7550 yuan/ton, which has stabilized compared to the price of 7550 yuan/ton on June 1st. In June, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and consolidated. There were many inspections of isooctanol enterprises in June, resulting in a decrease in the operating rate of isooctanol equipment, a reduction in isooctanol production, and a decrease in isooctanol supply. The support for the rise of isooctanol still exists, and the price of isooctanol fluctuated and consolidated.
The price of raw material phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell in June
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of June 30th, the price of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries was 6883.33 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and fell by 0.96% compared to the price of phthalic anhydride at 6950 yuan/ton on June 1st. In June, the price of phthalic anhydride first fell and then rose, and the price of industrial naphthalene fluctuated and fell. The cost support for phthalic anhydride weakened. In June, phthalic anhydride equipment was briefly overhauled, and the operating rate of phthalic anhydride enterprises decreased to about 6.50%. The supply of phthalic anhydride decreased, and the downstream plasticizer market fluctuated and consolidated. The operating load of equipment for plasticizer enterprises decreased significantly, and the demand support for phthalic anhydride weakened. Due to sufficient supply and weak demand, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell in June.
Future expectations
According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, in terms of cost, the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and stabilized, while the price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and fallen, and the cost support of plasticizer DOP has decreased; On the supply side, plasticizer enterprises have seen a decrease in production, a reduction in plasticizer output, and a decrease in plasticizer supply. In the future, with weak supply and demand coupled with cost support, it is expected that the price of plasticizer DOP will fluctuate and stabilize.