This week’s news is calm, with no significant improvement in fundamentals. The industry’s capacity utilization rate remains above 80%, and overall supply remains loose. The market remains volatile within a range. As of November 28th, the mainstream tank discharge price in East China ports has increased by 8125 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; Short distance delivery to Shandong market is 7925 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week.

Loose supply:
There is no fluctuation in the device during the cycle, and the overall sales of the manufacturer are stable. The inventory maintains a controllable pace, and there is no significant change in the supply and demand fundamentals. According to statistics, as of November 13th, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic acrylonitrile factories reached 80.6%, an increase of+0.87% compared to the previous cycle; The weekly output is about 91800 tons, an increase of+0.1 million tons compared to the previous cycle. The total inventory is about 53500 tons, an increase of+0.05 million tons from last week. Some companies have slightly increased their inventory, but overall it remains under control.
Reduced demand:
This week, the capacity utilization rate of major downstream industries has fluctuated. The 200000 ton ABS plant in Haijiang, Shandong has been shut down for maintenance, and the ABS capacity utilization rate has dropped to 71.2%, a decrease of -1.2% compared to last week.; The capacity utilization rate of acrylic fiber enterprises was 76.53%, unchanged from last week; The utilization rate of acrylamide production capacity is 55.21%, an increase of 0.67% compared to last week. Overall, the demand has decreased.
Cost increase:
During the week, the prices of upstream propylene and synthetic ammonia increased, and the cost of raw materials for acrylonitrile production continued to rise, resulting in continued losses in acrylonitrile production this week. According to statistics, as of November 27th, the market price of propylene in Shandong was 6050 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan/ton from the previous weekend’s 5940 yuan/ton. The average production cost of acrylonitrile is 8506 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 1.73%. The average production profit of acrylonitrile during the same period was -381 yuan/ton, with a month on month decrease of -105 yuan/ton.
In the later stage prediction, the domestic acrylonitrile market is currently fluctuating within a certain range, with no pressure on the inventory of the main contract factories and continuous price hikes. However, there is still little room for significant growth in demand. After the low-level construction of warehouses in the early stage, some downstream factories may mainly digest inventory at the end of the year. Therefore, the transmission of acrylonitrile industry inventory to downstream may be hindered, and some factories may face pressure to accumulate inventory, especially in the north where resource expectations are more saturated. However, there is still support on the cost side, so the downward space for acrylonitrile is expected to be limited.

1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average market price of baking soda is 1203.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22.24% compared to the same period last year. On November 26th, the Business Society Baking Soda Index was 79.98, unchanged from yesterday and hitting a historic low for the cycle, a decrease of 66.09% from the highest point of 235.84 on November 10, 2021. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda is running weakly, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is running weakly, with a factory price of 1080-1200 yuan/ton in Henan region and 1150-1250 yuan/ton in Shandong region. Due to downstream demand based procurement, it is expected that consolidation and operation will be the main focus in the later stage. Upstream: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash has been consolidating this week. The current market average price is 1224 yuan/ton, and downstream customers tend to purchase according to their needs.
Business Society analysts believe that the price of baking soda has been weak in recent times, while the upstream raw material soda ash has been strong. However, downstream industries such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food have been purchasing on demand recently, and demand enthusiasm for baking soda is still acceptable. Overall, it is expected that the price of baking soda will mainly consolidate in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of light soda ash remained stable on November 26th, with a market average price of 1224 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day’s price of 1224 yuan/ton, and an increase of 3.20% from the beginning of the month.
2、 Market analysis
The soda ash market is mainly observing the situation, while the downstream glass market is weak and stable. The demand for purchasing in the market follows suit, and the terminal market is lukewarm. The glass inventory is slowly being sold, which provides average support for the soda ash market demand; Some enterprises have reduced their equipment for soda ash production, resulting in a decrease in market supply. Some manufacturers are operating at high prices, but the market trading atmosphere is relatively weak. Some operators are cautious, and soda ash prices are stabilizing.
On the demand side: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the average price of glass market remained at 13.38 yuan/square meter on November 26th. The glass production line has started steadily, and the company’s inventory continues to accumulate. Downstream procurement needs are following up, and market transactions are average. The inventory level in the glass market is high, and glass prices are weakly stable.
Future forecast: Currently, the domestic soda ash production is temporarily stable, with enterprises maintaining active shipment as the main focus. There is little change in downstream glass industry production, and the demand for soda ash is limited. The market fundamentals are stagnant, but considering the cost pressure on manufacturers, it is expected that the soda ash market will remain stable, depending on downstream market demand.

This week, the market price of epichlorohydrin remained weak and stable. According to the monitoring and analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of November 21st, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epichlorohydrin was 11200 yuan/ton, a decrease of -5.88% compared to the beginning of this month.

Price influencing factors:
Raw material side: This week, the price of raw material propylene has increased, while the price of glycerol has decreased. The market price of raw materials fluctuates, and cost support is limited, causing the center of gravity of epichlorohydrin to shift downwards. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of November 21st, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6098.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.66% compared to the beginning of this month (6058.25 yuan/ton).
Demand side: Downstream epoxy resin market demand is weak, trading atmosphere is cold, epoxy chloropropane manufacturers have a bearish mentality, some have reduced prices for sales, and actual transactions are few and far between. The market shows a weak and stable trend, and it is expected that the epoxy chloropropane market price will mainly consolidate weakly in the later stage.
Market forecast: Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the cost side of epichlorohydrin fluctuates, with limited support and weak downstream demand. The market trading atmosphere is cold, and epichlorohydrin manufacturers have a bearish attitude, with some selling at lower prices and few actual transactions in the market. It is expected that the market price of epichlorohydrin will mainly consolidate weakly in the later stage, and more attention still needs to be paid to changes in raw material prices and market supply and demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has remained stable this week. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the end of the week was 824 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 19.29%. On November 20th, the Business Social Chemical Index was 762 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 45.57% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (October 23, 2021), and an increase of 27.42% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has remained stable this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is around 730-840 yuan/ton in the mainstream market of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is stable, and the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali is around 850-970 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is stable, and the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali is around 2350-2450 yuan/ton (converted to 100%). There are still maintenance expectations next week, but from the perspective of the Shandong region, the supply is uncertain, so we will wait and see for now. The enthusiasm of downstream alumina to enter the market has increased recently, but the market is still in a stalemate, and more caustic soda is purchased on demand. It is expected that the alumina market will experience weak fluctuations in the later stage
Analysts from Business Society believe that the price of caustic soda has remained stable in the near future. Domestic downstream buyers have been purchasing as needed, and caustic soda companies are expected to undergo maintenance. The comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that caustic soda will maintain a stable operating market in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the styrene market fell first and then rose this week, with the main contracts of US dollar and futures rising, driving up spot prices. The average price at the beginning of the week was 6686 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 6594 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 1.38% during the week.

News: On November 13th, international crude oil futures rebounded after falling. The settlement price of the December WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $58.69 per barrel, an increase of $0.20 or 0.3%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for January was $63.01 per barrel, an increase of $0.30 or 0.5%.
Cost aspect: Recently, the pure benzene market has slightly improved, with insufficient downstream orders and continued losses. The enthusiasm for raw material procurement is still not high, but with the price of pure benzene reaching a new low, downstream companies have entered the market at a low price, and the market has rebounded slightly. This week, the market has risen slightly.
Supply and demand side: Affected by poor profits, styrene supply remains weak, and ports maintain regular destocking. From the demand side, EPS and ABS operating rates are around 60% -70%, while PS operating rates are relatively low, resulting in a fluctuating overall operating rate and limited demand pull.
Styrene external market: On November 13th, the closing price of styrene in the Asian region rose by $15/ton, with a closing price of $780-785/ton FOB Korea and $790-795/ton CFR China.
Market forecast: Currently, the overall supply of styrene market is loose, raw materials are fluctuating and consolidating, and demand is entering the off-season. With limited positive support, it is expected that the styrene market will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.

This week (11.3-7), domestic liquid ammonia rose, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the weekly increase of liquid ammonia in Shandong region was 3.31%. The main reason is that, against the backdrop of stable downstream demand, some equipment maintenance has not yet resumed, and the supply pressure has slightly eased. At present, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong region is 2250-2400 yuan/ton.
From the supply side, this week, the supply has been basically stable, and the supply pressure has slightly eased. The recovery of the operating rate of the main production areas in the north is limited. Some devices are still under maintenance this week, resulting in a decrease in supply. In addition, there is not much supply pressure in Anhui and the two lakes region, while Hebei, Henan, Shanxi and other areas are affected by environmental protection, and there are short-term fluctuations in the equipment. The price increase from mid week to weekend is mainly due to price hikes, with manufacturers raising prices by around 100 yuan/ton this week. The market shows a basic balance between supply and demand.
On the demand side, there has been a slight improvement in downstream demand, including an improvement in the operating rate of compound fertilizers and a strong demand for urea, which remains a rigid demand; In terms of agriculture, there has been a significant increase in demand for agricultural procurement, but industrial demand is average, with a moderate upward trend in demand. Downstream urea has turned from a decline to an increase. According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, urea has increased by 1.57% this week, and the terminal receiving capacity has strengthened, with many purchases made at low prices.
Market forecast:
Business analysts believe that the slight increase in liquid ammonia prices this week is mainly due to favorable conditions from the supply side. However, with the expectation of resuming work on northern maintenance facilities next week, supply is under pressure, and it is expected that the price of liquid ammonia will have limited room for increase.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 31st, the reference average price of 85% industrial grade thermal phosphoric acid in China was 6640 yuan/ton, which is 0.30% higher than the reference average price of 6620 yuan/ton on October 27th.
2、 Market analysis
Market aspect
This week, the domestic phosphoric acid market prices have slightly increased. As of October 31st, the ex factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6300-6700 yuan/ton, in Yunnan region it is around 6400 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan region it is around 6250-6700 yuan/ton.
Cost aspect
In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. This week, the market price of raw material yellow phosphorus has shown a strong upward trend. At present, it is difficult to find low prices in the yellow phosphorus market, and manufacturers mainly offer competitive prices. Downstream demand for replenishment has led to an increase in the transaction price of new orders in the market. Short term yellow phosphorus prices are expected to strengthen and consolidate.
3、 Future forecast
Business Society’s phosphate analyst believes that the recent rise in the phosphate market is the main trend. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has increased, and cost support has increased. The market situation of phosphoric acid has followed the upward trend of raw materials. At present, the phosphate market has seen an increase in inquiries and stable trading on the exchange. It is expected that the domestic phosphoric acid market will strengthen and consolidate in the short term.

price trend

According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market first rose and then fell in October. The spot prices of most brands have fluctuated, and by the end of the month, they have basically returned to the price level at the beginning of the month. As of October 31st, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 14166.67 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of -2.07% compared to early October.
Root cause analysis
On the supply side: In the first half of October, domestic PC aggregation enterprises experienced large and stable loads with small fluctuations, and maintenance releases were concentrated in the second half of the month. The industry’s operating rate has been reduced by 4% to 77%, with an average weekly output of around 65000 tons, a decrease from the beginning of the month. In terms of inventory, it remains strong, but the improvement in the pattern of abundant PC supply is limited. Overall, the PC supply side has strengthened its support for PC.
In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the bisphenol A market significantly declined in October. Upstream phenol fell and then consolidated, while acetone fell sharply and entered a recovery market, which is difficult to say for the bisphenol A market. In addition, the continuous weakness of bisphenol A consumption has led to a rapid decline in spot prices due to multiple factors. Although the domestic market atmosphere remained sluggish in the latter half of the year, spot prices fell to a low level, coupled with relatively controllable inventory, leading to increased price manipulation by enterprises and businesses, forming a bottoming force. It is expected that the price of bisphenol A will remain stable in the future, but the support for PC costs will still be weak.
On the demand side: October is still in the traditional peak season for PC, but the downstream factory load of the “Golden Ten” this year is not ideal, inventory digestion is slow, and stocking remains at a weak level of rigid demand. Although maintenance has stimulated some brands to rise, the improvement in market trading activity is limited. At the same time, external news indicates that the export market is volatile, and the overseas shipment of PC terminal products is under pressure and weakening. In the second half of the month, merchants tend to focus on selling goods to recoup funds, resulting in a concentration of profit taking orders and a stagnation and decline in the price center. Buyers are resistant to high priced goods, and once the demand for filling gaps is met, the circulation speed of market goods slows down again. Overall, the demand side lacks support for PC spot prices.
Future forecast
After the domestic PC market rose in October, it gave up. The upstream bisphenol A market plummeted and stopped falling at the end of the month, with no improvement in cost support for PC. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants will decrease in the second half of the year, and the market trading situation will remain weak. There is a game of supply and demand in the market, and it is expected that the PC market will continue to consolidate in the short term.

1、 Price trend
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda is weak this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 842 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 838 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.48% and a year-on-year decrease of 19.19%. On October 29th, the Business Social Chemical Index was 755 points, a decrease of 2 points from yesterday, a decrease of 46.07% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (2021-10-23), and an increase of 26.25% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has been running weakly this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is around 750-880 yuan/ton in the mainstream market of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is stable, with the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali being around 890-1000 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is stable, with the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali being around 2700-2800 yuan/ton (converted to 100%). From the perspective of Shandong region, supply has increased, fundamentals have not improved, and prices have weakened and consolidated. Downstream alumina prices have recently fallen, causing pessimistic sentiment among distributors. Some companies are under significant operational pressure and are purchasing caustic soda as needed.
Business Society analysts believe that in recent times, the price of caustic soda has been weak in the operating market. Domestic downstream buyers have been purchasing according to demand, and caustic soda companies have loose supply. The comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that caustic soda will maintain a stable operating market in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.