In April, the acetone market was greatly boosted by raw materials. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of the acetone market in East China was 3700 yuan / ton on April 3, 4900 yuan / ton on April 10, 6000 yuan / ton on April 13, and the cumulative increase of the acetone market in East China was 62%; the price of the petrochemical manufacturers was 4300-4700 yuan / ton on April 10, 5400-6000 yuan on April 13/ Tons, up 27% a day.
Looking back on the market in April, the raw material pure benzene rose at the beginning of the month due to the sharp rise of crude oil. At present, the raw material propylene rose again due to the sharp rise of melt blown cloth raw material. The details are as follows:
First of all, the reduction of crude oil production is favorable for early release, and the raw material pure benzene after the Qingming Festival is up sharply.
1. Crude oil is the fuse of this round of rising market. On April 2, WTI and Brent recorded their biggest daily gains, both exceeding 25%, as Saudi Arabia and Russia are expected to reach production reduction agreements. In the following days, the oil price continued to fluctuate after surging. Until the end of the OPEC + special meeting on September 9, the production reduction was less than the market expectation. The oil price fell again, WTI was 22.76 yuan / barrel, down $2.33; Brent crude oil futures was 31.48 dollars / barrel, down $1.36. In the first half of April, oil prices rose 11.13%. Crude oil is the most upstream of the petrochemical industry chain, and there is no doubt about the impact of its price changes on the whole petrochemical industry chain.
2. Pure benzene is not only an important product of petroleum refining, but also an important basic raw material of petrochemical industry. The linkage between pure benzene and crude oil is very high. After the Qingming Festival, with the good news of crude oil production reduction, the price of pure benzene rose sharply in the atmosphere of petrochemical industry chain. According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, after the Qingming Festival, affected by the 25% rise in crude oil, the bottom reading of pure benzene rebounded, with a strong rise. On April 5, the price of pure benzene was 2250-2850 yuan / ton (average price: 2450 yuan / ton); on April 10, the price of pure benzene was 2850-3800 yuan / ton (average price: 3240 yuan / ton), an increase of 32.4%. It can be seen from the industrial chain of pure benzene acetone that the rising power of pure benzene is indispensable from April 3 to 10. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the acetone market in East China reported 3700 yuan / ton on April 3, and rose to 4900 yuan / ton on April 10, an increase of 32%.
3. Another important reason for the upward trend of this round is the expected low inventory of East China’s ports. According to the business agency, the inventory of East China’s ports on April 10 was 37000 tons, compared with 65000 tons of port inventory in the same period last year, the inventory of East China’s imported acetone ports was low. On April 10, some traders reported that 50% of acetone inventory in the port has been booked by downstream isopropanol factories. However, due to the impact of the epidemic abroad, the import shipping schedule is expected to significantly reduce in the middle and late April, so the overall import volume has also declined, and the supply of acetone in the domestic market has decreased.
Second, the raw material propylene soared 100% over the weekend, and acetone rose 27% again
1. Why does propylene soar? After the Qingming Festival, polypropylene (PP), the main downstream product of propylene, soared. Firstly, polypropylene fiber material entered the crazy level of RMB 10000 per day. Secondly, polypropylene (drawbench) rose from RMB 6383 / ton to RMB 8533 / ton from April 6-10, with an increase of 33.68%, which led to a sharp rise in the market of PP varieties. From the perspective of propylene polypropylene industry chain, polypropylene, which accounts for 70% of propylene market, rose sharply, Propylene is also on the rise. Taking Shandong market as an example, according to the monitoring data of business association, the price of enterprises in Shandong region generally increased by more than 1000 yuan / ton on April 12, up 35.02%. Some enterprises even increased by 5000 yuan / ton, up nearly 100%. The market transaction suddenly increased from 5000-5200 yuan / ton to 8000-12000 yuan / ton.
2. With the increase of propylene, the cost pressure of phenol ketone enterprises increases. The acetone market, which was in the situation of pushing up, took advantage of the rising trend of raw material propylene, and the acetone plant recorded the largest increase in a single day, with the next round of upward range far exceeding expectations. According to the monitoring data of the business association, on the 13th, acetone in North China (Yanshan Petrochemical and Zhongsha Tianjin) rose by 1000 yuan / ton, with an offer of 5400 yuan / ton, and that in East China (Shanghai Gaoqiao, Sinopec Mitsui and Yangzhou Shiyou) rose by 1000-1100 yuan / ton; the price of 1100 yuan / ton in East China acetone market was 6000 yuan / ton, which was far higher than expected.
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Thirdly, the operating rate of the downstream disinfectant isopropanol plant remained high, and the demand for acetone continued to increase.
1. Due to the increasing demand of overseas disinfectant Market, the isopropanol market continues to soar. According to the monitoring of the business agency, on March 14, isopropanol offered 6025 yuan / ton, and on April 13, isopropanol offered 12333 yuan / ton, up 104.7% in the past month. At present, isopropanol in the U.S. continued to rise, while isopropanol in Europe ended stable and fell. From the perspective of China’s export price, the price of export to Europe remains high in the short term. As of the 13th day, the negotiation range of domestic regions is about 12500-13000 yuan / ton. According to the current international situation, the demand for disinfectant and other resources in the European market will remain high. From the perspective of export orders, the current export orders have been scheduled to the first ten days of May, and the current market is expected to continue to be good until June. Of course, we should continue to pay attention to the progress of overseas public events. If the inflection point does not appear until May, the overseas isopropanol procurement will continue or be postponed to August. Business analysts believe that the domestic price of isopropanol will remain high, and follow-up attention will be paid to the change of news.
2. From the perspective of the acetone isopropanol industrial chain, affected by the overseas epidemic, the demand for isopropanol continued to improve, the market offer remained high, the profit of isopropanol plant was considerable, the operating rate of isopropanol plant was at a historical high, and the demand for acetone increased unabated. On April 10, the market price calculated that the profit of isopropanol by acetone method was still 5000 yuan / ton, and on April 13, the price of isopropanol rose 1500 yuan / ton again, and the demand for acetone rose sharply under the slight tension of supply.
Finally, people in the chemical industry are in a good mood. Since the single day rise of crude oil in early April, it has brought opportunities to the energy and chemical industry and plastic industry, especially for the products under the petrochemical industry chain, such as grasping the life-saving straw to copy the bottom, pushing up against the trend, increasing the market activity, increasing the enquiries of aromatic hydrocarbon and other products traders, small and medium-sized trading enterprises to copy the bottom inventory, and terminal enterprises to balance the product profit space under the high price raw materials in the early stage and actively store the low price Price of raw materials, high market participation. Secondly, with the increasing demand for respirators and other anti epidemic materials, PP, as the raw material of respirators, started to drive the sharp rise of propylene. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, on April 13, 2020, there are 63 kinds of commodities in the list of rising and falling prices of bulk commodities, accounting for 30.58%, which are mainly concentrated in the chemical sector (26 kinds in total) and the steel sector (11 kinds in total), and the commodities with an increase of more than 5% are mainly concentrated in the chemical sector; they are propylene, respectively (58.56%), acetone (27.27%), propane (24.94%), propylene oxide (21.05%), PP (16.89%), butanol (industrial grade) (15.5%), polyester staple fiber (12.88%), phenol (11.85%), isopropanol (5.71%), pure benzene (5.54%), cyclohexanone (5.06%). On the 13th, commodities with flat prices accounted for 50.97% and commodities with declining prices accounted for 18.45%. The average rise and fall of 13 days was 1.13%, and the average rise and fall of the bulk market for 5 consecutive days was positive, with good market confidence.
To sum up, the raw materials of pure benzene and propylene have risen sharply. As the proportion of propylene in raw materials is far less than that of pure benzene, the cost side of phenol ketone plant increased little on the 13th, and the profit is still considerable. Under the support of both raw materials and demand, the acetone market is stable in the short term, or there is still a narrow upward space. From the perspective of acetone market, the upward trend in the later period may offset the profit brought by the increase of cost However, according to 75% of the operation of phenol ketone plant, the terminal demand of phenol Market is not optimistic, and the phenol Market is expected to decline. Overall, the profit of phenol ketone plant in the later period depends on the phenol Market. According to the analysts in the chemical industry of business society, many chemical enterprises need to reduce the operating rate or shut down under the current soaring raw materials. The current demand in the terminal market is far less than expected. The downstream factories will inevitably resist the high price raw materials, and it is also an inevitable trend that propylene will return to the rational price range in the later period. Once the price of raw materials falls, phenol will be affected by the rational callback, but acetone will face the supply If two-way benefits are needed, the price may remain high in the short term.
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