This week’s decline of aniline compared with the cost side is smaller

1、 Price trend


According to a large number of data in the list of business agencies, aniline enterprises cut prices at the beginning of this week, and then maintained a stable trend. The price of Shandong is 5900 yuan / ton, down 300 yuan / ton from Friday, down 4.84%; the price of Nanjing is 6150 yuan / ton, down 300 yuan / ton from Friday, down 4.65%


2、 Analysis and comment


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Raw materials: this Friday, the price of pure benzene is 3500-4200 yuan / ton. This week, the price center of pure benzene moved down again, and the port inventory accumulated slightly. The average listing price of pure benzene on the 13th was 4680 yuan / ton, and the average listing price on the 20th was 3840 yuan / ton, with a weekly decrease of 17.95%. Sinopec lowered the listing price of pure benzene on Tuesday, which exceeded market expectations, leading to weak market negotiations. In addition, the import of pure benzene fell sharply, and the market was in a bad mood.


The price of nitric acid rose this week. The production price in East China was 1550 yuan / ton, up 50 yuan / ton or 3.33% compared with last week. But it is weak for aniline.


Product: affected by inventory pressure and cost, aniline price was lowered at the beginning of the week. In the later stage, supply and demand of aniline were stable, and enterprises tended to wait and see. Compared with the sharp drop of pure benzene, the downward range of aniline is small and the profit space is expanded.


3、 Future expectation


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Raw materials: the downstream products are dragged down by the weak terminal demand, the inventory release is slow, and the pure benzene market continues to be negative. In the near future, the internal and external arbitrage has been opened, and the subsequent Southeast Asian low-cost goods sources or arbitrage into China; in addition, the pure benzene plant has gradually increased its load, and the subsequent contradiction between supply and demand is more prominent. Under the short-term contradiction between supply and demand, it is difficult for pure benzene to improve substantially. It is expected that pure benzene will reach a new low.


The pure benzene market lacks good, or continues to weaken, the cost surface is loose, and the support for aniline price is weakened. In addition, the downstream start-up is relatively slow, the demand for aniline is limited, and the enterprise’s shipping pressure still exists.


Cost side wide loose, downstream procurement cautious, later if pure benzene continues to decline, aniline or follow-up to promote shipment.

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