1、 Price trend

According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, as of January 3, the average price of domestic BDO market was 9756 yuan / ton, with a 1.25% increase on a month on month basis and a 3.17% decrease on a year-on-year basis.

2、 Market analysis

Product: this week, the focus of domestic BDO market is high. The factory and traders all reflect the tight spot supply in the market. Some of the main factories led by Merck announced the listing price in January and controlled the delivery, showing a clear intention to support the market. BDO industry continues to promote Linked Settlement and marketing, but there is strong resistance in the main downstream, some long-term negotiations are stranded, waiting for more clear information guidance. Sinopec’s catalyst replacement unit was restarted, and Tunhe phase II was successfully commissioned on December 30. Before the load of each factory was reduced, the market supply might increase, and the industry’s wait-and-see mood will rise again. After entering January, although BDO plant has plans to reduce its load, some downstream factories will have holidays in advance before the Spring Festival, and the demand will gradually turn weak, and the game between the supplier and the demander will continue.

In terms of devices, this week, Tianye’s first phase 30000 ton device is in normal operation, and the second phase two 60000 ton devices will be restarted in February 2020; black cat will be restarted on December 20, with recent products; Chongqing Jianfeng will be shut down for maintenance on December 15, with an estimated one month; Sinopec’s first device will be replaced with catalyst; Tunhe second phase 100000 ton device will be successfully commissioned on December 30. In January, MEC, Tunhe, Kaixiang, Dongyuan and Shanhua had plans to reduce the burden. This week, the overall market operating rate is about 69.2%. (domestic production capacity increases by 60000 tons / year for Shaanxi black cat and Xinjiang new industry, 100000 tons / year for Tunhe phase II, and 30000 tons / year for Shaanxi chemical and Yizheng Dalian long-term parking)

Industrial chain: in terms of raw materials, methanol, the domestic methanol market rose slightly this week, with a good trading atmosphere. The delivery price of the Northern Line in Inner Mongolia is concentrated at 1730-1760 yuan / ton, and that of some enterprises of the southern line is reported to 1780 yuan / ton, so the inventory reduction of enterprises is smooth. The mainstream prices in Guanzhong region increased by 20-30 yuan / ton to 1780-1880 yuan / ton ex factory spot exchange. The downstream and traders entered the market actively to make up for the vacancy. Most of the main enterprises have no inventory and sell with production, mainly in Sichuan, Chongqing, Shandong and other regions. Xinjiang, Ningxia and other regions rose 30 yuan / ton, Baofeng still maintained a high level of foreign mining in the week, and the market trading was smooth. In terms of units, the production of the two 300000 ton units in Huating, Gansu Province was resumed on December 31, with a total daily production increment of 2000 tons. After the second phase methanol feeding test run in Yulin Yankuang, it has entered the maintenance state, which has little impact on the market.

Calcium carbide: this week, domestic calcium carbide price is mainly stable with a slight increase. Wuhai area and Ningxia area deliver goods smoothly with low inventory. This week, the factory price is mainly stable. The situation of short supply makes the calcium carbide manufacturers more bullish, waiting for the downstream purchasing manufacturers to increase. From the perspective of upstream raw materials, the weak market of Lancan in Shaanxi Province has declined, civil procurement has come to an end, and large material market transactions have declined. At the same time, the downstream construction of calcium carbide did not improve significantly, and the inventory pressure of small and medium-sized materials of manufacturers was on the high side. About 800-860 yuan / ton for large materials, 680-720 yuan / ton for medium materials and 650-700 yuan / ton for small materials. At this stage, the arrival of downstream purchasing manufacturers is not regional. Up to now, only Henan region is restricted by goods to increase the purchase price, and the supply of goods from other regions is still enough to support production, mainly with a wait-and-see attitude. Near the Spring Festival, the supply of goods transportation, weather problems may have some impact on the price change, but the trend of domestic calcium carbide price rise has been determined, and it is expected that the price of calcium carbide will be slightly increased next week.

3、 Future forecast

At present, the domestic BDO industry has entered a critical period of transformation of the old and new sales modes, and some downstream enterprises have strong resistance to the hanging settlement mode. Following the release of January load reduction news from BDO plant, some downstream companies want to follow up the production reduction, and the game between the supplier and the demander continues. Sinopec’s overhaul unit has been restarted, Tunhe phase II test run has been successful, the market supply may increase, the industry’s wait-and-see mood is gradually rising, and the January delivery time is relatively short, the downstream demand gradually turns weak, some of the long-term requirements have not been implemented. Before a consensus on hanging settlement was reached in the upstream and downstream markets, BDO analysts of the business agency predicted that the domestic BDO market would wait and sort out next week, focusing on the device dynamics and marketing issues.