1、 Market Overview
According to the data of the commodity list of business association, the formaldehyde Market in Shandong Province rose first and then fell in 2019. At the beginning of the year, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province was 1175.00 yuan / ton, and the highest point was March 20. The average price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province was 1443.33 yuan / ton. At the end of the year, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province was 1160.00 yuan / ton, with a comprehensive annual decline of 26.56 yuan / ton. The current price dropped by 10.56% year on year.
2、 Market analysis
In 2019, the formaldehyde Market in Shandong Province rose first and then fell. The first stage is from the beginning of the year to the middle of February. Before and after the Spring Festival, the formaldehyde price is stable, with occasional small drop. The price remains at 1125-1180 yuan / ton. The second stage is from late February to early April. After the Spring Festival, the methanol market is affected by the macro and port inventory. Under the support of cost, the formaldehyde price is rising. On February 18, the formaldehyde price is 1125 yuan / ton, and on April 1, the formaldehyde price is 1600 yuan / ton, up 37.78%. The third stage is from April 2 to mid May. In April, the methanol market affected by the arrival of imported goods in April showed a “waterfall” decline, which led to a sharp drop in formaldehyde price. On April 2, the formaldehyde price was 1550 yuan / ton, and on May 10, the formaldehyde price was 1130 yuan / ton, a 27.10% drop. The fourth stage is from the middle of May to the beginning of September. The safety and environmental protection inspection continues to be strict. The upstream methanol price is generally stable and slightly fluctuating. Occasionally, it rises or falls quickly and recovers. The impact on formaldehyde is limited. The price of formaldehyde fluctuates and is consolidated. The price remains at 1100-1200 yuan / ton. The fifth stage is from the beginning of September to the beginning of October. Driven by the golden nine silver ten traditional peak season, the price of formaldehyde rose slightly. Influenced by the recent surge in crude oil, methanol futures and the expected production of methanol to olefin, the upstream methanol market rose again in line with some downstream stock up before the national day. Supported by favorable supply and demand, the price of formaldehyde rose. In early September, the price of formaldehyde was 1160 yuan / ton, while in early October, the price of formaldehyde was 1320 yuan / ton, up 13.39%. The sixth stage is from the middle of October to now. The upstream methanol is affected by the sharp drop of domestic methanol futures and the continuous pressure of port inventory, unable to provide formaldehyde support. The downstream operation rate is affected by environmental protection control, and the formaldehyde price continues to decline. In the middle of October, the formaldehyde price is 1286.67 yuan / ton, and on December 27, the formaldehyde price is 1060 yuan / ton, down 17.62%.
3、 Future forecast
Recently, the upstream methanol continued to decline, the cost side support was unfavorable, the market trading was light, the downstream market operating rate was average, and the demand side and cost side support were weak, so the formaldehyde analyst of the chemical branch of business society predicted that the domestic formaldehyde price or low consolidation was the main trend in the near future.