1、 Price trend
Adipic acid market trend chart
According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, last week (12.23-27), the domestic adipic acid market remained stable, and the dealer’s quotation partially went up, with a small range. Up to 200 yuan / ton, the mainstream quotation by the end of last week was generally 8000-8200 yuan / ton.
2、 Analysis and comment
|ferrous fumarate price|
Last week, the adipic acid market continued to stand still, with little change in prices in most regions, and some of the prices rose. On the basic level, loose supply and weak demand are still the main factors that hinder the adipic acid to get out of the weak situation. The improvement of the cost side did not bring a rebound in the downstream adipic acid market, but increased the dilemma of enterprise profit contraction. At present, the downstream demand for adipic acid has not improved. In addition, the social inventory pressure has not been alleviated. The market has not reversed the upward momentum. The enterprise inventory and market inventory are still at a high level. This is the main reason why the price of adipic acid has not rebounded. In terms of region: the prices in East China and South China are still low, and some dealers are slightly weak, but the range is limited to 50-100 yuan / ton. The market atmosphere is a little cold, dealers actively give priority to profit delivery, and the market maintains a weak and volatile pattern. At present, the downstream market still generally holds a wait-and-see attitude, and the transaction is slightly deadlocked. In addition, on the upstream cost side, although pure benzene ended the downward trend of shocks, as of December 27, the rebound of this month was more than 8%, but the cost transmission effect was lagging behind, which did not bring much positive effect to the adipic acid market. On the contrary, with the price of pure benzene rising, the profits of adipic acid manufacturers were compressed, and at the same time, they were trapped in the weak demand, and the price did not Rising, this confirms the extremely weak market situation.
Trend chart of pure benzene Market
First of all, from the perspective of supply side, the overall supply pressure of the market is still large, the inventory of manufacturers and the market is still high, and the pressure of dealers is large, which is largely affected by the downturn of downstream purchase orders. In the early stage of adipic acid rise, dealers have accumulated a large number of sources of goods, and the inventory pressure is large. In addition, the main reason why adipic acid price didn’t go out of the weak market is that the plant operating rate is high, the export market is depressed and the supply pressure is too high.
PA66 market trend chart
In terms of demand, year ago, the downstream procurement was not strong. At present, the downstream centralized stocking behavior did not appear. Most of the downstream procurement was on demand, and the enthusiasm for stocking was not high. In December, the nylon 66 market was depressed, and the downstream operating rate continued to fall, basically below 50%, which did not form a strong boost to the upstream adipic acid. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the downstream PA66 of adipic acid has been monitored since September In the second half of this month, the price of PA66 continued to decline, with a range of – 1.96% (as shown in the above figure). PA66 has not improved in the near future. The downturn in the downstream market of adipic acid is the decisive factor for adipic acid to get out of the dilemma.
3、 Future forecast
Adipic acid analysts from the chemical branch of business society think that adipic acid will continue to run in a stalemate in the near future. It is unlikely that the price will reverse in the middle and later stages. On the one hand, we should pay attention to the effect of market de stocking, on the other hand, we should pay attention to whether the downstream demand can follow up. But in the near future, the price of pure benzene in the upstream will rise. As the cost effect is transmitted to the terminal, adipic acid may come out The market is rebounding slightly.