According to a large number of data monitoring by business associations, since the Dragon Boat Festival, the domestic acetic acid market has continued to rise. At the beginning of June, the average price of acetic acid in eastern China was about 2576 yuan/ton. By June 16, the average price of acetic acid in eastern China had risen to about 2883 yuan/ton, and the price of acetic acid had risen by 11.9%. At present, the quotation in Henan is about 2550-2600/ton, Shandong is about 2700-2800 yuan/ton, Hebei is about 2600-2650 yuan/ton, Shaanxi is about 2280 yuan/ton, Jiangsu is about 2650-2800 yuan/ton, Zhejiang is about 2850-3000 yuan/ton, and South China is about 2850-2950 yuan/ton, which is 47.65% lower than the same period last year.
II. Cause Analysis
Products: In early June, affected by the overhaul of some acetic acid enterprises in eastern China, the overall market start-up rate was low, the spot supply continued to be tight, and the acetic acid enterprises increased their quotations substantially; how long single-shipment and low inventory of enterprises in North China, stable supply of enterprises, stable and strong acetic acid prices; and in Northwest China, affected by continuous vacation and other factors, enterprises’inventory declined significantly and prices rose sharply. Affected by the overall market atmosphere, the price of acetic acid has been rising continuously in central China. In terms of construction, the starting rate of acetic acid industry is on the low side, about 68% as a whole. Huayi Group’s overhaul has been restored in Shanghai and started slightly lower; Soap’s overhaul in Jiangsu at the end of May has been restarted but not restored to normal; Hengli 350,000 tons/year plant in Dalian is currently in operation, with a daily output of about 600 tons; Nanlongyu plans to be repaired by the end of June.
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Industry chain: upstream, domestic methanol market shocks and declines, the average price of domestic methanol market at the beginning of the month is 2334 yuan/ton, reported 2186 yuan/ton as of June 17, a decline of 6.34%, the price fell 22.93% compared with the same period last year; terminal demand of acetate and vinyl acetate industries is low, procurement is not good, overall negotiations are limited, short-term stability is the main factor; PTA spot market delivery is soft, recently subject to raw materials. Material level and some equipment overhaul effect, a slight increase, but the industry is still weak.
International: The supply of acetic acid in North America is tight, and the price of acetic acid has increased slightly, currently about 415 US dollars per ton; the price of acetic acid in Asia has risen sharply due to supply constraints, but the overall downstream demand is still soft, with the current quotation of US$360-410 US dollars per ton; the European acetic acid market is running steadily, with the current quotation of US$520 per ton.
3. Future Market Forecast
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At present, the gap between the supply end of domestic acetic acid market has gradually been filled, and the production of acetic acid enterprises in eastern China is about to return to normal. Although the overall low stock level in the industry has some favorable support for the price of acetic acid, there is no obvious improvement in the downstream market demand and there is resistance to the high price of acetic acid. The acetic acid data analysts of business associations believe that the domestic acetic acid market will be stable in the near future. Medium to soft.