I. Trend analysis
According to business association data monitoring, domestic cis-butadiene rubber prices fell slightly this week (4.1-4.4). Prices at the beginning of the week were 1,1300 yuan/ton, and prices at the weekend were 1,1175 yuan/ton, a slight drop of 1.11%.
II. Market Analysis
Petrochemical ex-factory price: This week (4.1-4.4), the ex-factory price of domestic cis-butadiene rubber petrochemical plants was reduced by 200 yuan/ton, and as of April 4, the ex-factory price of cis-butadiene rubber in Daqing Petrochemical Company was 11,200 yuan/ton.
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Rubber import and export: Domestic rubber import continued to decrease in February 2019. It is understood that in February 2019, China imported 371,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber. In January-February, China imported 990,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber. The total volume in January-February decreased by 7.9% compared with the same period last year.
Raw materials: raw material butadiene prices fell slightly this week, the cost side dragged down the price of cis-butadiene rubber. Business associations monitored 8,155 yuan per ton of butadiene at the beginning of the week and 7,911 yuan per ton at the end of the week, a drop of 3.0%.
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Demand: The main downstream tire production of synthetic rubber has declined, to a certain extent, forming a negative impact on the price of cis-butadiene rubber. According to business associations, the domestic tire output in February 2019 was 11.218 million, down 7.3% from the same period last year.
3. Prospects for the Future Market
Xu Xiaokun, an analyst with business associations, believes that at present, on the one hand, the price of upstream butadiene has fallen, dragging down the synthetic rubber market, on the other hand, the downstream market of rubber has been weak, forming a negative atmosphere for cis-butadiene rubber as a whole. Later, the market of cis-butadiene rubber will continue to be in a weak position.