First, the price trend
According to the price monitoring of the business community, the domestic methanol market has risen in a narrow range this week. The average domestic methanol market price at the beginning of the week was 3227 yuan/ton, and the weekend reported 3255 yuan/ton. The weekly increase was 0.85%, and the price rose 18.93% compared with the same period of last year.
Second, the market analysis
Products: At the current stage, the stocking of the market before the holiday has basically come to an end. Under the pre-sale background of most enterprises in the production area, coupled with the tighter transportation capacity during the holiday period, the short-term factories will perform more contract-based operations, and the new single-entry atmosphere will have some Weakening, the methanol market in the Mainland may be in a narrow range in the short term, and some of them will not be excluded from the forecast. The olefins start and limit gas should be closely watched. The port market has a high consolidation trend or continued, and support factors such as the delivery of paper goods at the end of the month and the strength of the external disk remain. Domestic methanol freight has changed in recent days, with local small increase of 10-30 yuan/ton, including Inner Mongolia Northern Line to Lubei freight reference 180-270 yuan/ton; South line to Lubei freight 190-230 yuan/ton; Shanxi local to Lu North 110-150 yuan / ton; Guanzhong to Lubei reference 140-190 yuan / ton; Guanzhong to Shandong southwest reference 170-180 yuan / ton.
Industry chain: Formaldehyde: The impact of environmental protection is still there, the downstream plates and other construction starts to remain low, and the demand for BDO is light, Shandong formaldehyde just needs to be shipped mainly; raw material methanol market is still acceptable, and formaldehyde is temporarily stable. Acetic acid: The domestic glacial acetic acid market has risen sharply. The company’s spot is still in short supply, and the short-term supply gap needs to be supplemented. In addition, the impact of the Jianye and Longyu installations continues. The downstream just needs to be steady. Due to the tight spot in the market, the price of small orders was significantly higher than the market range. Close to the double section, the downstream buying intention will be lightened, taking into account the holiday transportation problem. Dimethyl ether: The end-user inventory is in a saturated state. Most of the short-term downstream will mainly digest inventory. The seller’s sales and inventory are generally under pressure. The overall price of domestic dimethyl ether continues to decline. Considering the current strong trend of raw material methanol, the downstream space in the region Extremely limited.
Third, the market outlook
Business community view: positive, domestic supply: coking, limited production, natural gas supply and other news support is still in place, local areas reduce the burden; Shaanxi and Mongolia main production areas more maintenance, the region’s resource supply is relatively tight; foreign supply: horse During the overhaul of the oil plant, it will be restarted near the end of the month; Russia Tomask and Saudi IMC methanol plant will be repaired as scheduled, for one month, the international supply pressure is not large; raw materials: Recently, the industrial gas price in Southwest China has increased, and the cost of the enterprise is supported. Increase; futures Masukura up, sharply high in the afternoon, to a certain extent to boost the spot market; under the stocking before the holiday, the overall receiving atmosphere of the downstream is acceptable. Negative, demand side: Under environmental supervision, the downstream plate production in Shandong and Hebei areas is limited, affecting the demand for formaldehyde resources; and recently some domestic MTO reduction production, to a certain extent affect the digestion of methanol resources; supply: domestic aspects The partial maintenance equipment in Shandong resumed and restarted, and the supply of methanol resources in the area was enlarged; attention was paid to the resumption of maintenance projects in the northwest, Henan, and southwest. Internationally, the US Natural Gasoline unit is fully loaded and the supply is stable. The methanol analyst of the business community expects that the market will be strong when the two quarters approach and the merchants actively stock up.