According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the toluene market has continued to rise in recent days (4.1-4.15). On April 15th, the benchmark price of toluene was 7710 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.05% from 7410 yuan/ton on April 1st.
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International crude oil and high-level operation of toluene in foreign markets receive certain support
Recently (4.1-4.15), under the resonance of multiple factors, international crude oil has fluctuated at a high level, which still provides some support for the cost of toluene. As of April 15th, WTI05 contract settlement is $85.41 per barrel; Brent 06 contract settlement is $90.10 per barrel. The continued rise in Asian toluene prices provides support for the domestic market, with CFR China LC90 day toluene prices at $951 per ton as of April 15th.
The production of xylene has slightly decreased, and toluene still needs support
The prices for parking and maintenance of some domestic devices have been adjusted to a high level, and as of April 15th, the PX production has slightly decreased to around 780%. The PX price in the Asian outer market continues to rise, providing some support for the domestic market. As of April 15th, the closing price in the Asian region was 1030 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1055 US dollars/ton CFR China.
Slow recovery of domestic mixed blending market, weak support for toluene demand
The domestic mixed blending market has recovered slowly, and the demand for toluene mixed blending has weakened. As of mid April, the operating capacity of refineries nationwide has slightly decreased to around 7.0.
Maintaining high levels of port inventory puts certain pressure on the toluene market
Domestic toluene port inventory remains at a high level, with East China toluene inventory at 76000 tons and South China toluene inventory at 8000 tons as of April 11th.
There are still plans for equipment maintenance in the later stage, and it is expected that the supply of toluene will decrease
The Jin’ao Technology reforming unit was shut down for maintenance in April, and toluene was sold without quantity; Jiangsu Xinhai Petrochemical’s aromatics were shut down for maintenance on April 7th. There are still maintenance plans for the equipment in May and June in the later period, and overall, the expected decline in the supply of toluene in the later period provides some support for the toluene market.
Future Market Forecast:
From a technical perspective, the toluene index chart of Business Society shows that the 7-day moving average has been above the 30 day moving average since the beginning of the year and is showing an upward trend. During this period, the price of toluene gradually increased; At present, the 7-day moving average is still above the 30 day moving average, and it is expected that there will be strong support for toluene prices in the short term.
From a fundamental perspective, currently international crude oil prices are fluctuating at high levels, and there is still support for the cost of toluene; Secondly, the recovery of demand in some downstream industries is slow, and the support for rigid demand is weak; In the near future, there is a maintenance plan for the toluene plant, and the supply of toluene is expected to continue to decline. It is expected that the toluene market will maintain a high level of operation in the later stage.
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