According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the mainstream market price of urea in Shandong Province fluctuated and fell in January: urea prices dropped from 2485 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2431.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 2.15%, and a year-on-year decrease of 12.69% at the end of the month.

On January 31, the urea commodity index was 113.10, an increase of 0.54 points from yesterday, a decrease of 25.75% from the highest point in the cycle of 152.33 points (2022-05-15), and an increase of 103.42% from the lowest point of 55.60 points on August 17, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Shandong slightly decreased in January.

Cost side: Upstream market drops significantly

Price details of Yangquan anthracite (washing medium block) in January

January 1st, January 15th, January 31st

Yangquan 960 yuan/ton 960 yuan/ton 960 yuan/ton

From a cost perspective: After New Year’s Day, there are many heavy vehicles in the market, limited downstream delivery capacity, poor market trading, and a strong bearish sentiment. Environmental protection control has been strengthened in some regions, industrial demand has weakened, and liquid factories have lowered prices to digest inventory. The price of liquefied natural gas fluctuated widely in January, dropping from 5510 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 5490 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 0.36%. The lowest point was 4452 yuan/ton on January 19th, with a maximum amplitude of 26.82% during the month. The price at the end of the month decreased by 10.06% year-on-year. The price of Yangquan anthracite (washed fast) has stabilized at a low level, with a price of around 960 yuan/ton. The price of liquid ammonia has dropped significantly, from 3623.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 3236.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 10.67%, and a year-on-year decrease of 23.54% at the end of the month. Overall, the upstream market for urea has experienced a significant decline, with insufficient cost support.

Demand side: Low price consolidation of melamine

From the demand side, agricultural demand has weakened, industrial demand is average, and urea exports are currently not favorable. Agricultural sporadic fertilization. The operating rate of compound fertilizer plants is average, and their enthusiasm for purchasing urea is normal. Board and melamine enterprises generally start construction, with a focus on procurement for immediate needs. In January, the price of melamine stabilized at a low level, with a price of 7475 yuan/ton. From a supply perspective, maintenance companies have resumed production, with a daily urea production of around 160000 tons and average supply.

In the future, the urea market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline in mid to early February. The price of liquefied natural gas has dropped significantly, with insufficient cost support. The daily production of urea is about 160000 tons, and the supply is average. Agricultural demand is currently not favorable, with industrial demand being the main focus. In the future, urea may experience a slight fluctuation and decline.