According to the monitoring of the business agency, the trend of the domestic rare earth market price index fell this week, and the domestic rare earth industry continued to decline. On July 10, the rare earth index was 829 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 17.68% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and up 205.90% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

This week, the price of products in the domestic light rare earth market continued to fall, and the trend of praseodymium and neodymium in the mainstream rare earth market fell back. In terms of products:

It can be seen from the product price trend chart that the prices of domestic metal neodymium, neodymium oxide, praseodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium alloy and praseodymium neodymium oxide continue to decline, and the price trend of metal praseodymium is temporarily stable. As of the 11th, the price of neodymium oxide in rare earth in China was 942500 yuan / ton, and the price fell by 2.33% this week; The price of neodymium was 1.17 million yuan / ton, down 1.27%; The price of praseodymium oxide was 947500 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 2.07%; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 887500 yuan / ton, down 3.79% this week; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy was 1.095 million yuan / ton, a decrease of 3.10%; The price of praseodymium metal is 1.23 million yuan / ton, and the price trend is temporarily stable. This week, the domestic rare earth market continued to decline.

The price trend of the domestic rare earth market fell, the recent downstream procurement was not active, and the number of new orders was relatively small. This week, the market trend of praseodymium and neodymium products fell, the wait-and-see mood of magnetic material enterprises deepened, and the purchase intention was weak. Due to the normal supply of mainstream products such as praseodymium and neodymium oxide in some large groups, some small waste recycling enterprises are affected by the shortage of waste supply, and the raw material inventory is insufficient to reduce production. Magnetic material enterprises are mostly distributed in Zhejiang. Affected by the epidemic in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, the demand for orders of downstream new energy vehicles, electric two wheeled vehicles and other vehicles has shrunk, the demand for spot procurement is weak, and the on-site prices have fallen slightly. The downstream demand side has not been significantly improved, the procurement demand is limited, the market negotiation atmosphere is general, and the market price of light rare earth praseodymium and neodymium is mainly declining. This week, the price of praseodymium and neodymium products continued to fall. Separation enterprises took the initiative to reduce their offers, and purchased cautiously. Traders offered actively, and some merchants intended to ship at a profit. The purchase intention of metal plants is not high, and the mentality is waiting for the future, and the market trend of light rare earth is declining.

The national environmental protection supervision is still continuing. Rare earth is purchased on demand. At present, the inventory of neodymium oxide praseodymium has not changed much. Affected by the sentiment of buying up or not, the price trend on the floor has declined slightly. According to statistics, the demand for new energy vehicles increased. The data released by the China Association of automobile manufacturers showed that in May 2022, China’s automobile production and sales reached 1.926 million and 1.862 million respectively, with a month on month increase of 59.7% and 57.6% respectively, and a year-on-year decrease of 5.7% and 12.6% respectively. Automobile production and sales rose sharply. Recently, the demand in the field of new energy was poor, the domestic light rare earth market continued to decline, and the domestic heavy rare earth market price fell slightly.

It can be seen from the trend chart that the price of dysprosium Series in China fell. As of the 11th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.415 million yuan / ton, and the price fell by 2.62% this week; Dysprosium ferroalloy price was 2.415 million yuan / ton, and the price trend fell by 1.23%; The price of dysprosium metal was 3.18 million yuan / ton, down 1.24% this week; The price trend of domestic terbium is mainly declining. The price of domestic terbium oxide is 13.75 million yuan / ton, and the price of metal terbium is 17.55 million yuan / ton. The price of heavy rare earths fell slightly, and the leading magnetic material factory purchased on demand, which made the domestic heavy rare earth market fall slightly. The raw material inventory of separation enterprises in the areas where light rare earth mines are used in Sichuan and other places decreased. The reduction of this part of supply had little impact on the operating rate of separation plants in the areas where light rare earth mines are used. However, recently, with the epidemic being controlled, production enterprises have started gradually, the supply side has eased, and the rare earth market atmosphere continues to be flat, Downstream magnetic material enterprises just need to follow up as planned, and their mood is more cautious. However, Myanmar’s exports are limited, and the global supply of rare earth is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas next to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great impact on products in the domestic heavy rare earth market, and the price of heavy rare earth in the market fell slightly.

In addition, the state policy supports the rare earth market. The first batch of Rare Earth total amount control indicators in 2022 are in line with expectations, and the industry pattern continues to be optimized. The Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources issued the first batch of Rare Earth total amount control indicators in 2022, of which the mining indicators and smelting separation indicators are 100800 tons and 97200 tons respectively. The increase of the index is in line with expectations, and the country is still relatively restrained in releasing the rare earth supply index. In 2022, the first batch of ore indicators / smelting separation indicators were all +20% year-on-year, with a growth rate lower than that of the first batch in 2021 (year-on-year +27.3%/27.6%), and it is expected that the overall supply and demand of rare earth will remain tight in 22 years. The index increment is still concentrated on light rare earth. Among the mining indicators in 2022, rock type rare earths (mainly light rare earths) were 89310 tons, up +23.2% year-on-year, and ionic rare earths were 11490 tons, flat year-on-year. It is expected that the increase concentrated on light rare earths will be a long-term trend, and the domestic rare earth market will still be supported in the long run.

The sustainable development of new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioning in the downstream of rare earth, coupled with the recent resumption of production of terminal factories, the orders of upstream magnetic material enterprises have not improved. Even if the government has issued policies such as halving the purchase tax, the consumption of terminal new energy vehicles will be boosted in the later stage. Business community analyst Chen Ling predicts that the short-term downstream procurement is not active, and the domestic rare earth market price may continue to decline slightly.