With the change of purchasing and marketing mentality, the decline of BDO market in June slowed down. According to the sample data monitored by the business community, the average price of domestic BDO producers was 19975 yuan / ton on June 1, and 17485 yuan / ton on June 30. The price fell by 12.47% in the month, and the decline slowed down, with a year-on-year price increase of 120.21%. According to the latest price, the mainstream negotiation of bulk water supply in East China is 17500-18000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream negotiation of bulk water supply in South China is 17500-18000 yuan / ton.
According to the price monitoring of business community, in the list of commodity price rise and fall in June 2021, there were 53 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector, among which 29 kinds of commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 30.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; The top three commodities were potassium sulfate (32.07%), dimethyl carbonate (21.18%) and butadiene (18.68%). A total of 35 kinds of commodities decreased month on month, and 13 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 13.7% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; The top three products were yellow phosphorus (- 22.60%), epoxy resin (- 13.88%) and acetone (- 12.78%). The average rise and fall of this month was 2.53%.
This month, the domestic BDO market was affected by the change in the purchasing and marketing mentality of the industry. The decline continued in the first half of the month, then turned sharply in the second half of the month, and rebounded to the bottom and continued to rise. In the first and middle of this month, in addition to the temporary shutdown of Xinjiang Meike phase II to replace the catalyst, a number of maintenance units were restarted and stabilized in May, and the market supply was abundant. Traders’ fear of falling is aggravating, and the pace of shipment is speeding up.
Since March 2021, the domestic BDO spot market has “fallen to the altar”, and the price has “never recovered”. The BDO market in the first half of 2021 presents a completely different trend from that in previous years, with ups and downs, complicated and confusing.
In terms of devices, Xinjiang Tianye’s 3 + 60000 ton device produced products in the first ten days of June and expanded its capacity, while the second 60000 ton device has not been restarted yet. The Tunhe installation in Lanshan, Xinjiang, is now in stable operation and is scheduled to be overhauled for one month on July 25. Xinye plant in Xinjiang is in full load operation and scheduled to be overhauled for 20 days on July 25. Dongyuan science and technology plant in Inner Mongolia has been running stably, and the catalyst is planned to be replaced from July 20 to 30. The start-up of Yanchang oil plant in Shaanxi Province is unstable, and the current load is 30-40%. Henan Kaixiang plant was restarted on June 11 and operated stably.
On the upstream side, the trend of methanol market in the mainland and coastal areas was slightly different in June. The mainland market fell first and then rose, while the coastal market basically followed the trend of futures. In June, the market price of calcium carbide rose before and then stabilized, with an increase of 600 yuan / ton. So far, the mainstream ex factory price in Wuhai area is 4500-4600 yuan / ton. Raw materials have a positive impact on BDO market.
On the downstream side, the PBAT industry is constrained by cost pressure and weak demand, the new production capacity is put into operation slowly, the overall start-up of other downstream industries has little change, and there is no obvious demand increment, so the contract procurement is maintained. Because the terminal’s ability to accept high price raw materials is weak, and the cost transfer is hindered, many downstream industries, such as PTMEG, PBT, PBAT, etc., follow the decline of raw materials to reduce their prices. Under the heavy pressure of cost, the prices of raw materials are seriously depressed.
In July, many units were shut down for maintenance or catalyst replacement, and the supply decreased. Moreover, the factory controlled the pace of shipment, supported the market, mainly delivered to terminal customers, and the supply of spot goods was tight. Traders were still reluctant to sell, and the quotation continued to explore. However, there are still conflicts with high prices in the downstream, and most of them are small orders. BDO analysts of business news agency expect that the domestic BDO market will bottom out and rebound in July, with a narrow upward trend.