Plasticizer DOP prices fell sharply this week

According to the data monitoring of business society, DOP prices fell sharply this week, and DOP prices fell sharply. As of December 17, the DOP price was 9500 yuan / ton, down 9.95% from 10550 yuan / ton on December 10 last weekend; Compared with the DOP price of 11200 yuan / ton on December 1 at the beginning of the month, it fell sharply, down 15.18%. DOP market fell sharply in December, and DOP continued its weak decline this week.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell this week

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic isooctanol market continued the downward trend this week, and the price of isooctanol fell sharply. Purchase cautiously at the high-end price in the market, with less new order trading volume in the market, stalemate in high price spot negotiation, increased bearish mentality on the floor, and downstream customers just need small order purchase. The transaction of isooctanol was cold, the price of isooctanol fell, the cost of plasticizer DOP fell, and the downward pressure of DOP increased.

Phthalic anhydride price stabilized this week

According to the price monitoring of business society, the price of phthalic anhydride first rose and then fell this week. The overall price of phthalic anhydride was flat and the phthalic anhydride market stabilized. The phthalic anhydride market stabilized and the downward pressure of DOP weakened.

PVC prices fell sharply

According to the price monitoring of business society, the price of PVC fell by 3.98% this week, and the PVC market fell sharply. In the off-season of PVC demand, PVC enterprises cut prices and shipped goods. Downstream customers waited and saw more, and the market transaction was cold. PVC market fell and DOP market became more bearish.

Future expectations

Bai Jiaxin, DOP data analyst of business agency, believes that this week, the price of DOP raw material phthalic anhydride stabilized, the price of isooctanol fell sharply, the cost of DOP fell sharply, and the downward pressure of DOP increased; PVC prices continued to decline weakly, DOP demand was general, and downstream customers’ procurement was cold. In general, the price of raw materials decreased, the cost pressure of DOP was large, the downstream market was still weak, the demand for DOP was cold, and the price of DOP fell sharply. The demand for raw materials is insufficient, and it is expected that the DOP price will fluctuate and fall in the future.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic POM market rose in the first half of December, and the spot price rose. As of December 10, the average price offered by POM injection molding sample enterprises of business society was about 20666.67 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of + 4.03% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: the recent domestic market of upstream methanol is weak, the downstream demand is poor, and the purchasing mood is weak, but the formaldehyde manufacturers maintain low load production. Therefore, the formaldehyde analysts of the chemical branch of business society predict that the recent price of formaldehyde in Shandong is mainly fluctuating and falling.

Upstream formaldehyde continued to be weak, and POM cost side support was poor. In terms of industry load, the operating rate of domestic POM enterprises continues to be high. Recently, affected by Yuntianhua maintenance plan, the market supply is expected to be reduced. And there are still enterprise maintenance plans announced in the future. The inventory of enterprises is low. In the domestic market, under the condition of insufficient imports, the tight supply pattern continues. Recently, it is superimposed with the expectation of tight supply. Businesses are reluctant to sell, and the on-site trading catch-up is general. Shenhuaning coal mc90 is quoted at a reference price of about 20100 yuan / ton, with cash withdrawal. The reference price of Tianye Chemical is about 21000 yuan / ton. The ex factory reference price of Yuntianhua M90 is about 20900 yuan / ton.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the domestic POM market rose this week, the upstream formaldehyde market continued to decline, and the cost support of POM was weak. The on-site supply is compact, superimposed with the expectation that the future supply will be further tightened, and the merchants’ reluctant sale operation will increase. However, at present, the downstream is more resistant to the high price supply, and there is some resistance to the rising market. Overall, there is more market outlook in the market, and it is expected that the spot price of POM may continue to rise.

In the first half of December, domestic liquid ammonia experienced a process of falling first and then bottoming up. Last week, the market was still affected by the weakness of both supply and demand. The prices in Shandong and Hebei fell sharply, generally more than 300 yuan / ton. Since this week, driven by the urea market, the price of liquid ammonia has stabilized and rebounded, with an increase of more than 100 yuan in Shandong, Hebei, southwest and northwest. However, the market has not yet rebounded to the price at the beginning of the month. According to the monitoring of business society, as of December 15, the overall decline of liquid ammonia was 1.55%. At present, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong is 4100-4300 yuan / ton.

On the supply side, under the background of supply guarantee policy, the operating rate of liquid ammonia enterprises remains relatively high. The ammonia release in the main production area increased significantly. In addition to the previous maintenance devices, there were few new maintenance devices in the market. The overall supply of liquid ammonia remained loose. The price fell significantly in the first and second weeks of December. Since this week, the supply of liquid ammonia in Shandong and surrounding areas has been significantly tightened, and the amount of ammonia released by enterprises has decreased. Boosted by this, the price has stabilized and rebounded.

 
At present, the price of liquid ammonia is still suppressed by the cost side. Affected by the regulation and control, the coal price continued to decline. Since December, the market has been weak. According to the monitoring of business society, the monthly decline of power coal was 0.23% as of the 15th. Under the influence of the policy, the tight supply situation was alleviated, the release of production capacity was greatly strengthened, and the price of thermal coal decreased. The sales of coal in the main producing area is now poor, the pace of market procurement has slowed down, and the inventory on the mine has increased; In terms of ports, the market wait-and-see mood is still strong. Traders have reduced prices and promoted sales, and the actual transaction is biased towards the low end. The power plant is not willing to replenish the warehouse, and multi-dimensional maintenance is mainly based on purchasing.

On the demand side, urea has followed the trend of liquid ammonia since December, falling first and then rising. As of December 15, the monthly decline since December was 1.76%. The previous decline was mainly due to oversupply. Since last week, with the expected increase in the maintenance of southwest gas head unit, the urea price has obviously warmed up. Demand has also improved. In terms of agricultural fertilizer, downstream manufacturers purchase on bargain hunting and stock up. In industry, the inventory of downstream rubber plate factory also has a downward trend, and the trading volume is slightly higher. However, the main tone of the market is still affected by environmental protection and has not been substantially improved.

From the above figure, the price comparison chart of urea and liquid ammonia shows that the trend of liquid ammonia and urea is basically the same, and the price difference has basically remained reasonable since December.

From the above figure and the liquid ammonia industry chain diagram, the liquid ammonia industry chain is still weak, and the prices of many downstream products have decreased significantly, especially ammonium chloride, melamine and other products.

Future forecast: the business community believes that in the short term, the price supply and demand of liquid ammonia will basically maintain a balanced pattern. The market will be supported by local favorable conditions, and the price will show regional differentiation. It is expected that the prices in the main production areas such as Shandong and Hebei will stabilize one after another. Due to the expected impact of device maintenance in the southwest, there is still room for upward price.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of December 14, the average ex factory price of domestic butanone market was 10566 yuan / ton, Compared with December 10 (the participation price of butanone was 10500 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 66 yuan / ton, or 0.63%; compared with December 5 (the participation price of butanone was 10350 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 216 yuan / ton, or 2.09%; compared with December 1 (the participation price of butanone was 10366 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 200 yuan / ton, or 1.93%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business society that since last week, the domestic butanone market has experienced a narrow and small-scale increase under the support of tight supply. This week, the tight supply in the market still supports the butanone market. Because the downstream demand has not been significantly boosted, the support given to butanone on the demand side is still loose, Therefore, there is insufficient motivation for the substantial price increase in the butanone field. In the first two days of this week, the quotation of some factories increased slightly, with the increase range of 100-200 yuan / ton. Most butanone holders actively followed up, driving the upward focus of market trading. As of December 14, the ex factory price of butanone in Shandong is around 10400-10700 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of butanone in Jiangsu is around 10500-10800 yuan / ton, and the average price of butanone in China is around 10566 yuan / ton. At present, the downstream of butanone is mostly purchased on demand, the operation is still cautious, the overall demand is weak, and the on-site transactions are mainly negotiated.

In terms of index, the butanone commodity index on December 13 was 114.49, up 0.36 points from yesterday, down 0.58% from the highest point of 115.16 points in the cycle (June 22, 2014), and up 126.89% from the lowest point of 50.46 points on March 3, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to the period since November 1, 2012)

Upstream, since early December, the civil gas market in Shandong has shown a downward trend as a whole. According to the data monitoring of business agency, on December 14, the domestic civil gas production price in Shandong was 5140 yuan / ton. Compared with the price at the beginning of the month (the domestic civil gas production price in Shandong was 5340 yuan / ton on December 1), the average price was reduced by 200 yuan / ton, a decrease of 3.75%.

Future analysis of butanone

In view of the current situation, the tight supply of butanone in the short term will still give some support to the butanone market, but the demand side performance can not be ignored. The butanone datagrapher of business society believes that recently, the domestic butanone market will mainly adjust in a narrow range, and the possibility of significant changes in the market is small. More attention needs to be paid to the basic information on the supply and demand side of butanone.

Commodity index: on December 10, polyacrylamide commodity index was 109.90, up 0.38 points from yesterday, down 1.44% from the highest point 111.51 in the cycle (2021-11-03), and up 32.59% from the lowest point 82.89 on August 2, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 to now)

So far this month, crude oil has continued to rebound and fell again, the price of petrochemical raw materials has continued to be weak, and the pressure on the production cost of water treatment has decreased; Despite the impact of environmental protection and dual control policies in winter, limited production and shutdown in many places, and the commencement of basic chemicals affect the market supply, due to the low heat of downstream demand, the ex factory price of water treatment products has been adjusted slightly. Since December, the polyacrylamide market has experienced a small adjustment, but the overall adjustment range is small. According to the data monitoring of business agency (100ppi. Com), polyacrylamide in China in the first ten days (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) the market was flat after a slight shock, that is, the mainstream market price was about 17987 yuan / ton on the 1st, about 17987 yuan / ton on the 10th, and about 17925 yuan / ton on the 7th-9th in the middle, with an earthquake of 0.35% in the first ten days. Recently, the market demand was weak and the transaction was average, but the operating rate was affected by environmental protection requirements, which supported the market to a certain extent.

The market of raw material acrylonitrile fluctuated in early December and has risen by about 150 yuan / ton so far this month. It is reported that the total domestic acrylonitrile production capacity will reach 3.159 million tons / year after the commissioning of lihuayi unit in mid December, an increase of 650000 tons over last year; As Fushun Petrochemical, Shanghai Secco, silbon petrochemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical took turns to stop for maintenance in the fourth quarter, which gave good support to the market, the market generally expects that the acrylonitrile market will continue to run higher in the fourth quarter.

As shown in the figure above, the market price of raw acrylic acid fell in early December. The average price of acrylic acid in East China on the 1st was 17000 yuan / ton, and the average market price on the 10th was 14900 yuan / ton, down 12.35%. At the beginning of the month, the price of raw propylene was lowered, the cost support was weakened, the inventory of production plants was low, the downstream was mainly purchased on demand, the inquiry and transaction were general, and the market was weak and stable. With the return of the price of raw propylene, the cost support was improved, the market supply was sufficient, the downstream demand was not followed up, the wait-and-see atmosphere was strong, the inquiry and transaction were depressed, and the market price fell again; The acrylic acid analyst of business society believes that at present, the price of raw material propylene is mainly stable, the cost support is limited, and the market supply is sufficient, but the downstream demand is weak. It is expected that the acrylic acid market may be weak in the short term.

LNG is used in the production process. According to the monitoring data of business agency, since December, the price of domestic LNG has fluctuated and fell all the way, and then stabilized slightly. The average price of domestic LNG on the 1st was 5340 yuan / ton, and the average price of domestic LNG on the 10th was 5220 yuan / ton, down 2.25%. The focus shifted downward. According to the analysis of business society, at present, the supply of domestic LNG market is increasingly abundant, the demand is poor, the market trading is weakened, the enterprise inventory is increased, and the price is declining. The actual transaction is mainly negotiation. It is expected that the domestic LNG market will continue to be weak.

As for the future, there is some support after the sharp decline of crude oil, and bulk commodities are weak. Raw material prices rise and fall, the market support is unstable, the downstream demand is general, and there is no risk of significant weakening of polyacrylamide trend, which is generally stable; Although the environmental protection and dual control policies in many cities in winter led to manufacturers’ production restriction and shutdown, the weak demand led to a weak market. In the current environment, polyacrylamide market is expected to be stable in the short term.

According to the monitoring of business society, the domestic market price trend of phthalic anhydride was temporarily stable this week. By the end of the week, the quotation of phthalic anhydride was 7025 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the price of 7025 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 4.27%. The price trend of phthalic anhydride was first restrained and then increased. The downstream plasticizer market was poor, and the market trend of phthalic anhydride was temporarily stable.

This week, the market price of phthalic anhydride decreased first and then increased. The delivery of phthalic anhydride in the field was general. This week, the downstream DOP market fell, the price trend of o-benzene fell, the plasticizer market was poor, bad factors affected the phthalic anhydride market, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride Market remained low. The operating rate of domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers has changed little. The operating rate of phthalic anhydride in the field is less than 60%. The domestic spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal. The price of phthalic anhydride in the field has declined at the beginning of the week. The downstream plasticizer industry has a poor market, and the actual transaction has dropped. There is little change in the market price trend of phthalic anhydride in East China, and the high-end transactions on the floor are limited. The mainstream of adjacent France source negotiation in East China is 6900-7100 yuan / ton, and the mainstream of naphthalene method source negotiation is 6700-6800 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 7000-7200 yuan / ton. The wait-and-see mentality in the phthalic anhydride market still exists. The downstream purchase is mainly on demand, the downstream DOP market is weak, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride is temporarily stable.

This week, the price trend of domestic orthobenzene declined, with the on-site price of 6300 yuan / ton, down 4.55% from the price of 6600 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. The change of domestic orthobenzene price is the negative impact of the phthalic anhydride market. Recently, the market trend of imported orthobenzene in the port area has declined, the external quotation of orthobenzene has declined, the recent inventory of orthobenzene in the port area is OK, and the external quotation of orthobenzene has mainly declined. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation, According to the detailed discussion of the actual order, the price trend of phthalic anhydride fell, the price of raw material phthalic anhydride fell, which was bad for the domestic phthalic anhydride market price, coupled with poor demand, and the phthalic anhydride market price remained low.

This week, the market price trend of downstream DOP of phthalic anhydride declined. According to the monitoring of business society, the domestic DOP price was 10550 yuan / ton by the end of the week, with a price decline of 2.76%. The construction of DOP enterprises in the field was stable, the DOP supply was sufficient, the PVC price fluctuated and weakened, the downstream demand was general, and the market transaction was cold. Plasticizer DOP market has weakened rising power and increased downward pressure, and the transaction price is subject to the real-time price. The overall DOP price is 10300-10700 yuan / ton. In the future, the downward pressure of DOP market has increased, the rising power has weakened, the downstream demand is poor, and the phthalic anhydride market is affected, and the price trend is stable.

On the whole, the recent crude oil price is still supported. In addition, the downstream plasticizer industry is weak, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride has declined. However, the market demand for phthalic anhydride is poor. It is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride may be stable in the later stage.

DBP prices fell slightly

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the DBP price fell slightly this week, and the DBP price rebounded slightly during the week. The overall DBP market was weak. As of December 10, the price of DBP was 9166.67 yuan / ton, down 1.79% from 9333.33 yuan / ton last weekend (December 3); DBP prices of some enterprises fell below the 9000 yuan / ton mark. This week, the decline of DBP continued and the decline of DBP slowed down.

N-butanol fell sharply

According to the price monitoring of the business club, n-butanol continued to decline this week, with a decline of 6.37% this week. The market situation of n-butanol in Shandong fell sharply. The downstream is in the traditional off-season. The trading atmosphere in the n-butanol field is cold, the raw material price has fallen sharply, the cost support has weakened, and the downward pressure on DBP has increased.

Phthalic anhydride prices hit bottom and rebounded

According to the price monitoring of business society, the price of phthalic anhydride rebounded this week, the price of phthalic anhydride was flat this week, and the phthalic anhydride market stopped falling and warmed up. The decline of phthalic anhydride market slowed down, the downward pressure of phthalic anhydride weakened, and the downward pressure of DBP weakened.

PVC fell slightly this week

According to the price monitoring of business society, PVC prices fell slightly this week. The PVC market continued to be in a weak consolidation pattern, the start-up of PVC production enterprises picked up, and the supply increased steadily. In terms of demand, the downstream demand in East and South China remained normal, while the demand in the North slowed down. The market price focus is expected to remain volatile and lower. PVC disk was weak, futures PVC prices fell, and the spot market was cold. PVC market fell, weakening the positive and negative effects on DBP market.

Future expectations

Business agency DBP data analysts believe that DBP prices fell slightly this week, and DBP market continued its downward trend. The price of raw material phthalic anhydride rebounded from the bottom, which stimulated the price of DBP, but the price of n-butanol fell sharply, the support for the rise of DBP was insufficient, the price of DBP fell sharply, the overall cost of DBP decreased, and the pressure on the decline of DBP was great; In terms of demand, in the traditional off-season of plasticizer, the PVC market fell, and the demand for plasticizer was general. DBP costs are under great downward pressure. Generally speaking, the demand for DBP is cold, the support for rising is weakened, and the pressure for cost reduction is great. It is expected that the price of DBP will fluctuate and fall in the future.

According to the price monitoring of business society, the domestic spandex market has continued to decline since December. As of December 9, the average market price was 74400 yuan / ton, down 4.12% from the beginning of the month and up 81.02% year-on-year. The start-up of spandex manufacturers increased slightly to a high of 890%, and the supply of goods is sufficient. The cost support is firm, the enthusiasm for taking goods downstream is poor, and the market trading atmosphere is flat.

Current mainstream price statistics of spandex market (unit: yuan / ton)

20D 30D 40D

Zhejiang 95000-97000 84000-86000 71000-73000

Shandong 97000-99000 85000-87000 72000-74000

Fujian 97000-99000 85000-87000 72000-74500

Jiangsu 95000-97000 84000-86000 71000-73000

The price of pure MDI market is stable in the middle and down, and the market is generally lack of confidence. It is mainly purchased by small orders in the downstream. The market negotiation is RMB 20000-20500 / T telegraphic transfer barrel self delivery. The PTMEG market continues to be supported by the high price of raw material BDO and the operating cost. The market is mainly stable temporarily. The mainstream factories with 1800 molecular weight supply supply offer around 47000-49000 yuan / ton, and the industry starts around 83%.

Recent dynamic changes of domestic PTMEG manufacturers

Enterprise name Capacity (10000 t / a) remarks

Yizheng Dalian four Long term shutdown of unit

Henan energy Hebi Coal Chemical Co., Ltd six One device operates stably

Yanchang Oil Field Gas Technology Co., Ltd four point six Low load operation of the unit

At present, the downstream market mainly consumes inventory and purchases cautiously. In December, the start-up load of warp knitting machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang continued to decline. At present, the start-up load of warp knitting factories in Haining area is around 50%, lower than 3-40%, and only a few start-up loads are more than 70%.

Business analysts believe that although the current upstream raw material market has fallen, the supporting role of the cost side is acceptable. Domestic and foreign trade orders at the demand side continued to fall month on month. Considering that it is difficult for orders to improve before the Spring Festival, warp knitting and other factories are expected to stop and take leave after mid December. Constrained by weak demand, spandex prices will remain weak and mainly adjusted.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of business society, on December 3, the average price of salicylic acid (industrial grade) mainstream manufacturers was 16666.67 yuan / ton, flat compared with the beginning of the month, and the price increased by 20.48% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the salicylic acid market continued to be stable, the market trading was good, the transaction increased, the manufacturer’s inventory was ok, the actual single price was slightly explored, and the short-term salicylic acid market operated stably. Up to now, the quotation of domestic salicylic acid industrial enterprises is mostly in the range of 14900-19200 yuan / ton, the quotation of pharmaceutical grade is mostly in the range of 24000-27000 yuan / ton, and the quotation of sublimation grade is mostly in the range of 19500-23000 yuan / ton.

According to the monthly increase and decrease from December 1, 2020 to November 30, 2021, it can be seen that the superior in the salicylic acid range increased by 12.36% in October supported by cost and supply, and then stabilized.

In terms of raw materials, on December 2, the focus of the domestic phenol market continued to decline, double raw materials weakened one after another, the bad atmosphere in the industrial chain intensified from top to bottom, and even the whole chemical industry continued to fall. On December 2, the negotiated price in East China fell to 9000-9050 yuan / ton. The supply side may be supported by Yangzhou Shiyou phenol ketone plant or storage and maintenance plan next week. The business agency expects the domestic phenol Market range to be sorted and operated on the 3rd.

3、 Future forecast

According to the salicylic acid analysts of business agency, the price of salicylic acid remained stable as a whole and increased sporadically during the week. Under the situation of relatively stable market supply and demand, the price of salicylic acid is expected to continue to maintain a stable trend.

The price of aluminum fluoride remained stable this week

According to the data of business agency, the price of aluminum fluoride was temporarily stable this week. As of December 7, the average price of domestic aluminum fluoride was 14366.67 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of 14366.67 yuan / ton last weekend (December 1); The aluminum fluoride market was temporarily stable this week.

The high price of raw materials fell this week

According to the monitoring of business society, the high price of hydrofluoric acid fell in December. As of December 7, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 12720 yuan / ton, down 6.68% from 13630 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (December 1); Compared with 14030 yuan / ton at the beginning of last week, it decreased by 9.34%; Hydrofluoric acid market fell from a high level; Recently, the high level of the downstream refrigerant market has dropped, the on-demand procurement in the field, the hydrofluoric acid market has fallen, the hydrofluoric acid price has fallen, the rising power of aluminum fluoride has weakened, and the downward pressure has increased.

According to the monitoring of business society, the price of fluorite rose at a high level this week, the market of fluorite rose this week, and the price of fluorite rose by 0.59% this week; The price of fluorite rises slightly in the short term, the rise in the cost of aluminum fluoride is limited, and the rising power of aluminum fluoride is general.

Market overview and forecast

Analysts of aluminum fluoride industry of business agency believe that the price of hydrofluoric acid fell sharply this week, the price of fluorite rose slightly, the high price of hydrofluoric acid fell, the cost of aluminum fluoride decreased, and the downward pressure of aluminum fluoride increased. The high price range of aluminum ingots in the downstream was adjusted by shock, and aluminum fluoride was mainly needed. The price of aluminum fluoride is expected to be weak and stable in the future.