Data monitoring shows that in the first week of March (1-6), the mainstream price of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight of 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China’s domestic market decreased slightly by about 0.84%. Among them, the quotation on the 1st was 17014.29 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation on the 6th was about 16871.43 yuan / ton, with small overall change.

Industrial chain: according to the data of business agency, the mainstream market of upstream raw material acrylic acid was stable at about 16033.33 yuan / ton in the current week (January 6), its production enterprises started normally and the market inventory was sufficient; Weak downstream demand and sluggish transaction; The inventory situation of the enterprise is different, and the price is adjusted slightly according to the inventory situation. The upstream raw material acrylonitrile has been steadily increased by about 300 yuan / ton since February 28, and the average price in the domestic market in the first week of March is about 11450 yuan / ton. Under the influence of geopolitical factors, the international crude oil rose sharply. The market price of propylene, the raw material of both, continued to rise, the cost support was strengthened, the overhaul of some units was expected, the downstream demand was gradually restored, and the market was high. It is expected that the market situation of acrylic acid and acrylonitrile may be good luck in the short term.

Liquefied natural gas is used in the production process. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the domestic LNG market weakened significantly in the week (January 6), with the average price of 7104 yuan / ton on the 6th, down 15.89% from 8446 yuan / ton on the 1st. Affected by the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the price of natural gas in Europe is rising, but the domestic natural gas market is currently in sufficient supply. With the rise of temperature, the market has gradually entered the off-season of consumption. It is expected that the price of domestic liquefied natural gas will continue to fall.

Future forecast: affected by the situation in Russia and Ukraine, international crude oil rose, propylene and liquefied gas were affected rapidly, the market was strong, and the upstream support of polyacrylamide was good; On the supply side, the enterprise has sufficient inventory; Downstream end: the demand is relatively stable, and its driving effect on the price is not obvious; Circulation end: normal logistics and reasonable cost. As for the future, the analysis of business society believes that the biggest impact on polyacrylamide in the near future is the support and promotion of upstream costs. It pays close attention to the development of International Geopolitics and the impact on bulk raw materials.

Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic ABS market rose in early March, and the spot prices of various brands increased by a narrow margin. As of March 4, the average price of mainstream offer of general-purpose ABS was about 14250 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of + 1.06% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

Industrial chain: in terms of raw material styrene, the market price of styrene fluctuated and rose this week. International crude oil rose sharply, pure benzene also increased greatly, and the cost side gave strong support to styrene. At present, on the inventory side, the market supply is still abundant, the downstream is expected to maintain rigid demand, and the supply and demand side continues to be deadlocked. Styrene is likely to follow the trend of crude oil. On the whole, if the raw material level is strong or continues to rise next week, the styrene market will continue to consolidate and rise.

Acrylonitrile market warmed up this week. Recently, the cost side support of acrylonitrile has strengthened, and enterprises have raised product prices. However, the shipment of new equipment put into operation in the early stage has impacted the market, and the current inventory of enterprises and midstream merchants is high. Although the cost pressure may reduce the operating rate of a certain industry in the short term, the current stock volume in the floor still narrows the range of this round of rising market.

This week, the domestic butadiene market finished high and upward. Crude oil prices rose sharply during the week, boosting the mentality of businesses; At the same time, the higher prices of crude oil and naphtha affect the cost of butadiene. Businessmen expect that the devices of some personal production enterprises may be reduced in the later stage. In addition, the restart of accident devices in South Korea is delayed, and the supply side news supports the market. In addition, the internal and external prices are strong, and the domestic butadiene market is mainly high in the short term.

3. At the beginning of the year, the prices of three materials in the upstream of ABS rose together, and the cost side support strengthened. In terms of industry load, the operating rate of domestic ABS enterprises is high, the overall supply is high and the prognosis is abundant. The ABS market is still in the high inventory position of enterprises and downstream, which is affected by pressure. However, in early March, the terminal enterprises resumed work and the demand was fully developed, and the market demand was phased and large-scale. Coupled with the tense situation in Eastern Europe, market concerns may affect the stability of petrochemical supply chain. Therefore, the mentality of merchants has been repaired, the willingness to offer a high price has increased, and try to make a high price.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the spot market of ABS rose slightly in early March, and the trend of upstream three materials rose, which has strong support for the cost side of ABS. Domestic spot supply continues to be abundant, and the load of ABS enterprises is at a high level. At present, the downstream demand is phased and large, the on-site trading has warmed up, and the domestic inventory position is being digested. It is expected that the spot market of ABS may still strengthen slightly in the short term.

1、 Price summary of mixed xylene on March 2:

Qingdao refinery offers 7950 yuan / ton, Shijiazhuang Refinery offers 7800 yuan / ton,

Jiujiang Petrochemical offers 8000 yuan / ton, and Yangba offers 7900 yuan / ton,

Guangzhou Petrochemical offers 8100 yuan / ton, Maoming Petrochemical offers 8050 yuan / ton,

Changling refinery offers 8100 yuan / ton,

Shandong Jingbo Petrochemical offers 8000 yuan / ton, Xinhai Petrochemical offers 8000 yuan / ton, and Hongrun offers 8150 yuan / ton.

2、 Fluctuation trend:

 
3、 Analysis and comments:

In terms of crude oil, the situation in Ukraine remains tense, and European and American countries have increased sanctions against Russia. The market is expected that the sanctions imposed on Russia may lead to a large number of divestments of oil assets. The expectation of crude oil supply shortage in the next few months is further strengthened, and the fear of supply interruption is intensified. The international oil price soared yesterday. According to EIA data, US commercial crude oil inventories fell 2.6 million barrels month on month in the week ended February 25.

Today, Sinopec East China mixed xylene price increased by 250 yuan / ton, South China mixed xylene price increased by 300 yuan / ton, Xinhai Petrochemical mixed xylene increased by 50 yuan / ton, and Jingbo Petrochemical mixed xylene increased by 100 yuan / ton.

Yesterday, the international oil price soared, the outer disk Asia mixed xylene rose broadly, and the market focus rose. Sinopec raised the price of mixed xylene, and the market actively followed the rise. The short-term trend of mixed xylene is mainly affected by the price of crude oil and gasoline and diesel oil.

In February, the domestic Shunding market rose first and then fell. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of February 28, the price of CIS polybutadiene rubber was 13690 yuan / ton, down 0.07% from 13700 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; The high point in the month was 14000 yuan / ton.

The price of raw butadiene rose sharply, supported by the cost side, driving the price of CIS polybutadiene rubber higher in the first half of the month. In addition, the loose supply of cis-polybutadiene rubber and the weak downstream demand for cis-polybutadiene rubber had a negative impact on cis-polybutadiene rubber, resulting in a slight decline in the price of cis-polybutadiene rubber in the second half of the month.

According to the business agency, Wanda and Qixiang devices were restarted to normal operation, Qilu, Lande and Zhenhua were reduced to negative operation, and Huayu rubber was temporarily stopped; In February, the overall start-up of polybutadiene rubber decreased slightly.

In February, the raw material butadiene rose sharply, and the cost was supported by styrene butadiene rubber. According to the monitoring of business society, as of February 28, the price of butadiene was 8372 yuan / ton, up 30.09% from 6436 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

In February, the natural rubber market fluctuated and consolidated. As of February 28, the price was 13114 yuan / ton, down 1.10% from 13260 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; The high point in the month was 13880 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: business analysts believe that the supply side is slightly reduced, but the pressure is still on, the cost side is significantly higher, which supports CIS polybutadiene rubber, and the demand is weak. It is expected that the price of CIS polybutadiene rubber will fluctuate and consolidate in the later stage.

In February, the domestic bisphenol a market was mainly down, mainly due to poor demand and the decline of upstream and downstream products of the industrial chain, with many negative factors. According to the monitoring data of business society, the average offer in East China was 18562 yuan / ton on February 1, and the average offer in the market fell to 17187 yuan / ton on February 28, with an overall decline of 7.41% in the month.

From the raw material side, the domestic phenol market rose first and then fell in February, mainly downward as a whole. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average offer of domestic phenol market was 11200 yuan / ton on February 1, 10987 yuan / ton on February 28, a decrease of 1.9% in the month. On February 10, the offer of domestic phenol market was 11445 yuan / ton, with an amplitude of 4.08%. By the end of the month, the offer in East China market was about 10950 yuan / ton, that in South China was 11000 yuan / ton, and that in North China and surrounding areas of Shandong was 10950-11000 yuan / ton.

During the month, the acetone market rose and fell, and the market showed a trend of first rising and then restraining. By the end of the month, the mainstream offer in East China was 5650 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring of business agency, in terms of East China market, the mainstream offer in East China market was 5600 yuan / ton on February 1, 6050 yuan / ton on February 14, and 5650 yuan / ton on February 28, with an increase of 0.89% and an amplitude of 8.04% in the month. As of the 28th, the negotiation in East China was 5650 yuan / ton, the offer in Shandong was 5950 yuan / ton, the offer around Yanshan was 5950 yuan / ton, and the offer in South China was 5880 yuan / ton.

The downstream epoxy resin market negotiation was loose, and the performance was extremely cold during the month, and the market fell significantly, but the market activity increased near the end of the month, among which the liquid resin negotiation in East China was 26500-27500 yuan / ton. Another important downstream PC operates in a narrow range, and the downstream demand is expected to increase as the weather warms up.

From the perspective of business agency, in March, Shandong Lihua yiweiyuan device was overhauled and Changchun one-line was overhauled. There was little change in other factories. Under the support of supply side, the probability of bisphenol a falling sharply was small. Business Agency predicted that bisphenol A might show an overall trend of falling first and then rising in March.

According to the monitoring data of China’s mainstream aluminum chloride industry, the quotation of aluminum chloride industry was significantly reduced from 237.28% to 237.28% on January, and the content of aluminum chloride in China’s mainstream market was significantly reduced from 237.28% About yuan / ton, with a range of about 7.08%.

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream raw materials, hydrochloric acid: according to the monitoring data of business society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price first fell and then rose in February. The quotation first fell from 296.00 yuan / ton on February 1 to 234.00 yuan / ton on February 9, down 62.00 yuan / ton, down 20.95%, and then rose to 266.00 yuan / ton on February 25, up 13.68%, and then slightly adjusted to 262 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 11.49%. The domestic hydrochloric acid market rose and fell this month, and the downstream demand was general; The upstream liquid chlorine market rose slightly, which strengthened the support for hydrochloric acid, and the downstream ammonium chloride market rose by about 13%. However, the downstream has general enthusiasm for purchasing hydrochloric acid, and the difficulty of hydrochloric acid shipment is still a major problem. According to the analysis of business society, hydrochloric acid has mainly increased slightly in the near future.

Liquefied natural gas is used in the production process. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the domestic LNG market rose sharply in February, with an increase of more than 100% in the month. The price rose rapidly from about 3800 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to about 8000 yuan / ton at the end of the month. Shandong, Henan and other places broke through the 9000 yuan mark, and the market focus moved up rapidly. The strength of international crude oil has brought obvious benefits to the market. The domestic liquefied gas market continues to strengthen as a whole. Superimposed on the increase in market demand in February and the decrease in supply, the domestic liquefied natural gas market is much higher than that in the same period last year. According to the analysis of business society, the current rise is basically in place. With the warmer weather and the limited downstream receiving capacity, the domestic liquid market will return to rationality.

Future forecast: due to the recent geopolitical factors, the rise of international crude oil has a great impact on bulk commodities. The water treatment enterprises started operation after the year, and the production successively entered the normal state; The market inventory is sufficient, the transaction is relatively stable, and there is no large demand to drive; From the perspective of industrial chain, the price of raw hydrochloric acid is weak and the cost support is not strong; However, from the perspective of fuel cost, the cost has increased to a certain extent. Therefore, it is expected that the market of polyaluminium chloride in the future is likely to fluctuate slightly, and attention should be paid to the impact of the recent international situation on the market of relevant commodities.

1、 Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic market of PA6 fell violently in February, and the spot prices of various brands decreased as a whole. As of February 25, the mainstream offer price of the sample enterprises for China viscosity 2.75-2.85 was about 15800 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of – 1.66% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

Industrial chain: upstream, pure benzene, caprolactam raw material, changed from rise to fall in February, and the cost support weakened. There is a large spot supply of caprolactam, and the market focus continues to move downward, with an obvious decline near the end of the month. At present, the supply and demand side is under pressure and the downstream market is depressed. Under various bad conditions, caprolactam is weak and the confidence in the field is insufficient. The caprolactam market is expected to be weak in the short term, mainly running downward.

The upstream caprolactam price fell, and the cost side support of PA6 was insufficient. The operating rate of domestic PA6 polymerization plant is relatively stable at 70%. The supply side is abundant this month. In February, some contracts of years ago were produced and delivered. In addition, the conventional textile inventory of enterprises was high, and the price reduction and shipment dragged down the spot price. In addition, the poor resumption of downstream enterprises this month and the slow expansion of demand in some areas have a certain negative impact on the demand side. Although the inventory position of terminal enterprise PA6 is not high, the air atmosphere is heavy in the future, the market will buy up rather than fall, and the preparation operation is biased to maintain production.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the spot price of PA6 fluctuated and fell in February, the trend of caprolactam turned from high to weak, and the cost support of PA6 weakened. The expansion of terminal demand is less than expected, the buyer’s mentality is not strong, and there is resistance to the high price supply. It is expected that the PA6 market may remain weak in the short term.

Summary of spot price trend of precious metals

According to the data of business agency, on February 24, the average early price of silver market was 5025.33 yuan / kg, with a daily increase of 1.84%, which was 4.85% higher than the average early price of 4793 yuan / kg in the spot market before the festival (January 31).

On February 24, the spot market price of gold was 389.29 yuan / g, up 1.07% on a daily basis, up 5.07% from the spot market price of 373.05 yuan / g before the holiday (January 31).

Comparison of price trends of precious metal gold and silver in recent 1 year

 
In the long term, the price trend of precious metals has a good convergence and the trend is basically the same.

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

Geopolitical superposition tight monetary expectation suppresses risk appetite

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine intensified around noon Beijing time. The war triggered a sharp decline in global stock markets, pushing up oil prices and prompting investors to buy Precious Metal Gold for safety.

On the other hand, the probability of US inflation data being forced to raise interest rates rose, the international monetary easing policy was expected to gradually withdraw, and the market risk appetite decreased.

Future forecast

In the long run, the monetary easing policy is gradually ebbing, and the expectation of interest rate hike suppresses the continuous rise of precious metal prices. In the short term, precious metals are likely to continue to rise.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of February 22, the average ex factory price of butanone in the domestic market was 13066 yuan / ton. Compared with the price at the beginning of the month (12500 yuan / ton on February 1), the price increased by 566 yuan / ton, an increase of 4.53%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business agency that in February, the domestic butanone market was running warm as a whole. In the first ten days, after the Spring Festival holiday, the domestic butanone market ushered in a steady upward trend from the 8th. After the festival, the construction of butanone in the field was low, and the tight supply in the field supported the upward operation of butanone market. As of the 15th, the ex factory price of domestic butanone was around 13000-13300 yuan / ton. Compared with that before the festival, the cumulative increase after the festival was 500-800 yuan / ton, an increase of 5.87% in early February.

In late February, the tight supply side continued to support the butanone market, but the downstream demand was general, the butanone market continued to rise weakly, and the overall high-level consolidation operation was dominated. Until the 21st and 22nd, the domestic butanone market was running down in a narrow range, and the downstream demand was always cold. The light transactions on the floor depressed the confidence of the operators, and the butanone market loosened and fell. Butanone factories in some regions reduced the ex factory price of butanone by around 100-300 yuan / ton. As of the 22nd, the ex factory price of domestic butanone was around 12800-13300 yuan / ton, with an average price of around 13066 yuan / ton, It fell by 1.26% in the latter half of the year and rose by 4.53% in February as a whole. At present, the butanone plant is weak as a whole, mainly finishing and operation.

Upstream, in mid February, the liquefied gas market fluctuated frequently, and the overall civil gas market in Shandong was still dominated by weakness, with limited positive market support. Affected by weak terminal demand at the beginning of the week, prices fell significantly. Subsequently, the increase of international crude oil significantly boosted the market, Shandong civil gas stopped falling, and some manufacturers increased, but the overall range was small. In the middle of the week, due to the poor market trading atmosphere, Shandong civil gas returned to weakness again. Until the weekend, downstream market entry increased, manufacturers’ shipments improved, and prices rebounded. On February 13, the average price of liquefied gas in Shandong civil market was 5768.00 yuan / ton, and on February 21, the average price was 5396.00 yuan / ton, with a decline of 6.45% within the week.

Future analysis of butanone

At present, there is a heavy wait-and-see mood in the downstream of butanone. The mentality of some butanone holders is frustrated, and the overall atmosphere in the venue is cold. The butanone data division of the business society believes that under the influence of demand containment and the atmosphere in the venue, the possibility that the butanone market will continue to decline in the short term cannot be ruled out, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the follow-up of the demand side.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of February 22, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was 10066 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on February 1 (the reference average price of n-butanol was 9366 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 700 yuan / ton, or 7.47%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business agency that the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong showed a trend of first rising and then falling in February. During the Spring Festival, the domestic market was stable in early February. On the first day of return after the festival (the 7th), the market of n-butanol in Shandong ushered in a wide rise. The average price of n-butanol in Shandong broke close to 11500 yuan / ton, and the price rose by more than 2000 yuan / ton compared with that before the festival, with a single day increase of 24.20%. Subsequently, on August 8 and 9, the market of n-butanol in Shandong continued to move closer to the high end. On September 9, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong rose to about 11933 yuan / ton, with an increase of 27.4% in the three days after the festival.

After the n-butanol market rose to a high level, the pace of downstream procurement slowed down, the resistance to high prices gradually rose in the downstream, and the demand support weakened. The n-butanol market in Shandong fell when it was at a high level. From the 10th, the n-butanol market gradually declined. As of the 15th, the ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong fell to around 10500-10800 yuan / ton, with an average price of 10600 yuan / ton, The half month increase was 13.17%.

In late February, the decline of n-butanol market slowed down, and the overall situation was weak. Until the 21st and 22nd, affected by the insufficient procurement of downstream users of n-butanol, the cold transaction of new orders and the loose demand support, the n-butanol market in Shandong moved down again. On the 22nd, the ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong fell to about 9900-10300 yuan / ton, and the average price fell to about 10066 yuan / ton, It fell by 5.05% in the second half of the year, and the overall increase in February exceeded 7%. At present, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong is weak as a whole.

In terms of upstream propylene, in February, the domestic propylene market in Shandong rose first and then fell, showing an overall upward operation. According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of February 21, the reference price of propylene was 7887.33 yuan / ton, up 1.76% compared with February 1 (7750.80 yuan / ton).

Future analysis of n-butanol

At present, the downstream demand of n-butanol is still calm, the support on the demand side is limited, and the confidence of the industry is frustrated. The n-butanol datagrapher of business society believes that in the short term, the market situation of n-butanol in Shandong is mostly weak, mainly sorting and operation. More attention needs to be paid to the changes of supply and demand.