According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the sulfur price trend in East China was volatile in February, and the market was weak and downward. As of February 28, the average ex-factory price of sulfur in the East China market was 1116.67 yuan/ton, which was 4.56% lower than the average ex-factory price of 1170 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Within the month, the sulfur market in East China was weak and sorted out, the refinery units were operating normally, the market supply of goods was stable, while the enthusiasm of downstream delivery was general, the market trading atmosphere was weak, coupled with the impact of the port supply of goods on the market, the refinery shipments were poor, and the inventory of some enterprises was accumulated, and the sulfur price was adjusted according to their own shipments.

Downstream sulfuric acid market rose strongly in February, with the market price of sulfuric acid at 231.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 253.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month, up 9.35% in the month. In February, the trend of domestic sulphuric acid continued to rise, the market turnover warmed up, the enthusiasm of the downstream to take goods increased, the enterprise’s shipment was smooth, and the enterprise’s inventory was not under pressure, the operators were optimistic, and the price of sulphuric acid rose within the month.

The market of monoammonium phosphate fell in February, the market demand for monoammonium phosphate was weak, there were few new orders in the market, the negotiation atmosphere was not good, and the focus of market transactions moved down. As of February 28, the average market price of 55% powdered monoammonium phosphate was 3330 yuan/ton, which was 1.11% lower than the average price of 3367 yuan/ton on February 1.

According to the aftermarket forecast, the sulfur analyst of the Business Society believes that the current sulfur market is in sufficient supply, and the follow-up of the downstream purchase is not good, and the on-site trading atmosphere is weak. Considering the use of fertilizer for spring plowing, the future demand may improve. It is expected that the short-term sulfur market will operate on a wait-and-see basis, and the price range will fluctuate, with specific attention paid to the downstream follow-up.

1、 Price data

According to the latest monitoring data of Business News Agency, as of February 28, the average ex-factory price of domestic local refined hydrotreated naphtha was 8221.50 yuan/ton, up 5.05% from 7826.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month, and the local refined hydrotreated naphtha was surging.

According to the latest monitoring data of Business News Agency, as of February 28, the average ex-factory price of domestic straight-run naphtha mainstream was 8136.50 yuan/ton, up 5.96% from 7679.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month, and the local straight-run naphtha fluctuated.

The naphtha commodity index on February 28 was 101.47, up 0.31 points from yesterday, down 16.58% from the cycle’s highest point of 121.64 points (2022-03-10), and up 140.22% from the lowest point of 42.24 points on July 19, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Products: The price of local refined naphtha rose as a whole in February. At present, the mainstream price of local refined hydrotreated naphtha is about 8200 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of straight-run naphtha is about 8100 yuan/ton. The local refining and reforming company just needs replenishment to support the market, mainly needs procurement, and the refinery is active in shipment. As of the week of February 22, Singapore’s fuel inventory increased by 1.915 million barrels to a four-month high of 22.641 million barrels; Light distillate oil inventory decreased by 2.04 million barrels to an 8-week low of 15.578 million barrels; Medium distillate oil inventory increased by 526000 barrels to a three-week high of 8211000 barrels.

Upstream: The trend of international crude oil prices in February was volatile. On the macro level, the inflation level in the United States remained high, and the economic data was strong. The month-on-month rise in inflation data in January made the expectation of the Federal Reserve’s radical interest rate increase continue to rise. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its first meeting in 2023. As soon as the news came out, the oil market fell sharply at the end of the day. The minutes showed that the probability of further interest rate increase was increased, and the stubbornness of inflation and the long-term trend of inflation made the interest rate reduction at the end of the year almost impossible, which led to the pressure on the prices of risky assets such as crude oil. The western developed economies are suffering from inflation and are still in the expected channel of economic recession. It is difficult for oil demand to improve in the medium and long term. It can also be seen from the EIA inventory data that the super accumulation of gasoline and refined oil makes market participants uneasy, especially the news that the United States has released its crude oil reserves again is also negative for the oil market. However, the rising demand in Asia has played a certain role in supporting the international oil price, and Russia’s production reduction in March is expected to boost the oil price.

Downstream: the price of toluene in February continued to decline from January to July, and rose in a stepwise manner after the 7th. The price of toluene was 7070 yuan/ton on February 1 and 7250 yuan/ton on February 28, up 180 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, or 2.54%. The price of mixed xylene fluctuated in February and tended to be stable in the later period. The price was 7380 yuan/ton on February 1 and 7370 yuan/ton on February 28, down 0.14% from the beginning of the month. The price trend of paraxylene in February was temporarily stable. As of the end of the month, the domestic ex-factory price of paraxylene was 8500 yuan/ton, which was the same as the price of 8500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the energy analysts of the Business News Agency, the international crude oil market in February fell sharply, the naphtha cost support was limited, and the local refining naphtha terminal reorganization just needed replenishment to boost the naphtha market. Refineries were actively pushing up, and middlemen were mostly wait-and-see. It was expected that the local refining naphtha might be sorted out in the near future.

Price trend

In February, the domestic EVA market rose sideways, and the spot price rose in the first half of the month. According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of February 27, the average ex-factory price of domestic EVA was 16166.67 yuan/ton, up 9.23% from the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Raw materials:

In February, the market for ethylene at the raw material end was stronger. At the beginning of the month, the equipment of major Southeast Asian plants was shut down for maintenance. The market supply volume was generally reduced, and the supplier’s mentality was strong. Domestic demand for ethylene has increased due to the impact of new projects, and downstream users have increased their purchase volume after the holiday. Although the momentum has gradually slowed down, the overall price of ethylene has risen due to the impact of the external market boost. The resumption of domestic downstream plants of vinyl acetate has lagged behind, and the delivery of new capacity has been successful, so the supply pressure has increased. However, the supply of goods on the market is generally small, and the spot price is stable and small in the month. In terms of raw materials, there was a certain support for the EVA market in February.

Supply:

In February, the load of domestic EVA production enterprises was stable at a high level in the first half of the month, and the industry operating rate reached 91%. It began to decline gradually in the middle of the month, and the industry operating rate fell to 80.1% by the end of the month. In the month, the market supply is generally stable, the factory inventory pressure is low, and the supplier has some support for the spot goods. The manufacturer’s ex-factory price rose and then stagnated, and the auction source price first rose and then fell in a narrow range. Spot prices of mainstream brands generally rose by about 1000 yuan/ton.

Demand:

At the beginning of February, EVA demand was affected by the rebound of market momentum after the holiday. At the same time, there is a certain amount of raw material inventory in the main downstream that needs to be digested before the festival. The good delivery volume is gradually exhausted, and the supply and demand balance is basically reached by the middle of the month. On the other hand, the demand for photovoltaic materials and foaming materials is also differentiated. The foam shoe materials sold in the month were flat and lagged behind. The first measurement of photovoltaic materials is the combination of reality and expectation, which is the main force supporting the demand side this month.

Aftermarket forecast

In general, the EVA market in February rose sharply in the first half of the month, and the market was balanced in the second half of the month. The market of raw materials is generally strong, supporting the EVA spot. The demand of downstream enterprises has gradually stabilized, and the replenishment is mainly to follow up the demand. EVA polymerization plant has low inventory and firm ex-factory price. After the merchants make profits, there are some narrow margin profit transfer operations. It is expected that the domestic EVA market will continue the market balance pattern in the short term and the market will be stable.

Domestic price trend of paraxylene:

It can be seen from the p-xylene trend chart that the price trend of this week is temporarily stable. As of the end of the week, the domestic ex-factory price of p-xylene was 8500 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price of 8500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 6.25%.

The domestic paraxylene supply is normal, and the domestic PX operating rate is about 70%. The external dependence of PX products is about 29%. The recent price trend of PX external market is volatile. As of the 23rd, the closing price of the Asian paraxylene market is 993-995 yuan/ton FOB Korea and 1018-1020 dollars/ton CFR China. The low external price is negative for the domestic market. The recent operating rate of PX devices in Asia is normal. On the whole, the operating rate of paraxylene devices in Asia is about 60%, and the price trend of the domestic paraxylene market is temporarily stable.

The price of crude oil fell this week. As of the 23rd, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $75.39/barrel, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures in April was US $82.21/barrel. On the macro level, the inflation level in the United States remains high, the economic data is strong, and the month-on-month rise in inflation data in January makes the expectation of the Federal Reserve’s radical interest rate increase continue to rise. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its first meeting in 2023. As soon as the news came out, the oil market fell sharply at the end of the day. The minutes showed that the probability of further interest rate increase was increased, and the stubbornness of inflation and the long-term trend of inflation made the interest rate reduction at the end of the year almost impossible, which led to the pressure on the prices of risky assets such as crude oil. The western developed economies are suffering from inflation and are still in the expected channel of economic recession. It is difficult for oil demand to improve in the medium and long term. It can also be seen from the EIA inventory data that the super accumulation of gasoline and refined oil makes market participants uneasy, especially the news of the release of crude oil reserves in the United States is also negative for the oil market, and the domestic paraxylene market price is temporarily stable due to the decline of crude oil price.

The price trend of the downstream PTA market rose this week. As of the 24th, the average price of the PTA market was 5600-5650 yuan/ton, up 1.71%. In terms of PTA supply, PTA starts fell this week. At present, the industry starts at about 72%. PTA plant production reduction and maintenance helped the PTA spot market rise. The improvement of market sentiment led to a significant increase in the enthusiasm of terminal inquiry, and the improvement of PTA supply and demand margin. Many downstream polyester enterprises are still actively resuming work, the operating rate is in the process of gradual improvement, and the consumption of PTA is rising. In terms of terminal weaving, the operating rate is also in the process of seasonal increase. As of February 23, the comprehensive operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has increased to more than 67%. On the whole, the downstream market has recovered slowly and the price trend of paraxylene is temporarily stable.

Chen Ling, a PX analyst at the Business Agency, believes that the current oil market is playing a long and short game, and the recovery of demand in Asia has brought some benefits, but the risk of economic recession in Europe and the United States still exists, and the oil market will still face fundamental pressure in the future. The terminal downstream operating rate will rise, the downstream demand is expected to rise, and the PX market supply is normal. It is expected that the market price of paraxylene will rise slightly in the future.

Market price trend chart of polyformaldehyde

In February, the price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong fell. At the beginning of the month, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 5350.00 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 5240.00 yuan/ton, down 0.19%, down 4.64% year on year.

Market price trend chart of methanol-polyformaldehyde

The situation of upstream methanol: the domestic methanol market fluctuated slightly in February, and the coal price remained stable. At present, the supply of coal in the main production areas has been repaired and improved. Under the influence of negative factors such as high inventory in the middle and downstream links, the market demand lacks substantive support. The temporary storage of methanol cost is good. The temporary storage of methanol supply side is good.

Recently, the domestic methanol market is dominated by a narrow rise, with good cost support, and the market transaction is expected to recover. Polyformaldehyde analysts of the business agency predict that the price may rise slightly.

The price of plasticizer DBP fell in shock this week

According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of February 20, the DBP price was 9300 yuan/ton, down 1.46% from the DBP price of 9437.50 yuan/ton on February 13. After the holiday, plasticizer enterprises started to rise, DBP supply increased, and DBP prices stopped rising and falling. This week, DBP prices fluctuated and fell.

The price of raw materials fluctuated and adjusted this week

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of February 20, the price of ortho phthalic anhydride was 8287.50 yuan/ton, up 0.45% from the price of 8250 yuan/ton on February 13. The demand for raw material ortho-phenyl rose temporarily. The market of phthalic anhydride rose this week, and the price of phthalic anhydride rose. The downward pressure of DBP still has an increasing upward momentum.

According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, as of February 20, the price of n-butanol was 7066.67 yuan/ton, down 2.75% from the price of 7266.67 yuan/ton on February 13. The start of n-butanol enterprises rose, the supply of n-butanol was sufficient, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol was light, the price of n-butanol fell, the cost of DBP fell, and the downward pressure of DBP increased in the future.

Aftermarket expectation

According to DBP data analysts, the raw material phthalic anhydride rose slightly this week, the price of n-butanol fell sharply, and the cost of DBP raw material fell; This week, plasticizer enterprises started to rise, DBP supply increased, demand remained weak, and DBP downward pressure increased. In the future, the cost of plasticizer fell and the demand was weak, and the supply of plasticizer DBP exceeded the demand, and the price of DBP was expected to fall in shock.

Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, the price of cryolite in Henan Province this week was stable. On February 17, the average market price in Henan Province was 7975 yuan/ton, which was the same as the average price on February 11, with a month-on-month increase of 0.31%.

quotations analysis

This week’s cryolite market was dominated by wait-and-see, and the prices of cryolite enterprises on the market were stable. The raw materials are subject to environmental protection and safety requirements, the operating rate is low, the supply of goods is tight, the cost of coal and natural gas in fuel is high, the production cost of cryolite is high, the market price remains high, and the enthusiasm of downstream market entry is general. Cryolite enterprises ship as required, and their attitude to the market is stable. By February 17, the ex-factory price of cryolite in Shandong is 7000-8600 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price of cryolite in Henan is 7200-8800 yuan/ton.

The price trend of fluorite in the upstream has declined. As of February 17, the average market price was about 3050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.40% compared with the price of 3125 yuan/ton on February 11. After the holiday, fluorite enterprises began to work gradually, the supply side operating rate rose, and the supply of fluorite increased, but the follow-up of downstream demand was limited, the purchase sentiment in the market was not high, the market orders were few, the factory and enterprise had a poor delivery, and the price of fluorite declined.

This week, the downstream aluminum market fluctuated and fell. On February 17, the aluminum price was around 18473 yuan/ton, down 0.59% from the price of 18583 yuan/ton on February 11. The terminal construction is general, the downstream consumption is weak, the order follow-up in the market is insufficient, the market atmosphere is light, and the aluminum price is weak.

Aftermarket forecast

The cryolite market started normally, the supply of goods was stable, and the raw materials started relatively low due to environmental protection and safety requirements. The support for cryolite was good, and the demand was followed up as needed. The enterprise shipments were stable, and the market supply and demand were relatively balanced. It is expected that the short-term cryolite market will maintain stable operation.

This week (2.10-217), the nitrile rubber market was in a narrow range. According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, as of February 17, the price of nitrile rubber was 17350 yuan/ton, up 0.14% from 17325 yuan/ton last Friday, and the weekly low was 17300 yuan/ton. The price of raw materials continues to maintain a high level, and the factory price of nitrile rubber of enterprises is firm. However, as the price of nitrile rubber rises, the fear of high prices in the downstream increases, and the market consolidates in a narrow range.

This week (2.10-217), the price of raw materials butadiene and acrylonitrile fell but remained high, and the cost of nitrile rubber continued to support. As of February 17, the price of butadiene was 9868 yuan/ton, up 3.68% from 9518 yuan/ton on February 10; As of February 17, the price of acrylonitrile was 10550 yuan/ton, down 2.31% from 10800 yuan/ton on Friday.

The supply of nitrile rubber is basically stable.

After the festival, the downstream rubber products industry, such as rubber hose and auto parts, is dominated by small inquiries, with a small number of transactions in the market.

Aftermarket forecast: NBR analysts of the Business Agency believe that the supply of NBR is temporarily stable, and the cost of raw materials butadiene and acrylonitrile continues to support the high level of NBR; In the later stage, with the continued recovery of downstream construction, nitrile rubber may rise again in the later stage.

According to the bulk list data of the Business News Agency, as of February 16, the average price of domestic industrial 85% formic acid enterprises was 3383.33 yuan/ton, 1.50% higher than that of February 9.

Recently, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market has been operating steadily. Recently, the price of raw material sulfuric acid has risen steadily, the price of raw material methanol has fluctuated, and the cost support still exists. In addition, after the Spring Festival, the mainstream enterprises have shut down their devices, and the supply side has decreased. The operators have a good attitude, which supports the steady rise of the formic acid market. Downstream procurement is based on demand, and the enterprises implement orders.

Upstream products: upstream sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market price was temporarily stable on February 15, and the reference price of sulfuric acid was 235.00 on February 15, up 1.44% from February 1 (231.67); For upstream methanol, the reference price of methanol was 2695.71 on February 15, down 0.58% from February 9 (2711.43).

According to the formic acid analysts of the Business Society, there is some support in the cost aspect at present. The market is mainly to digest the inventory, and the transaction is based on demand. In a short time, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market may digest the increase, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic hydrochloric acid price rose slightly this week, with the average market price rising from 154.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 155.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 0.65%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell 33.76% year-on-year. The hydrochloric acid commodity index on February 12 was 40.79, which was the same as yesterday, down 70.42% from the highest point of 137.89 (2021-10-26) in the cycle, and up 126.86% from the lowest point of 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

Upstream support increases, and downstream procurement is general

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price rose slightly this week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market rose slightly and the cost support increased. The market price of downstream polyaluminum chloride decreased slightly, from 1968.75 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 1966.25 yuan/ton at the end of this week, with a decrease of 0.13%. Compared with the same period last year, the year-on-year decline was 19.46%; The market price of ammonium chloride rose slightly, from 1187.50 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 1212.50 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 2.11%. On the whole, upstream support increased and downstream procurement enthusiasm was good.

Aftermarket forecast

In the middle and late February, the market price of hydrochloric acid may rise in a narrow range. The upstream liquid chlorine market has risen slightly in the near future, the cost support has increased, the downstream polyaluminum chloride market has declined slightly, the ammonium chloride market has risen slightly, and the downstream purchasing willingness has increased. Analysts from the Business News Agency believe that hydrochloric acid is mainly rising after a small fluctuation recently.