From the cost side, coal is the main raw material for the production of methanol in Northwest china. At present, coal prices have stabilized, and the development and Reform Commission issued from November 20th onwards will improve the notice of non residents with gas price of 10% – 20%, it must have the support of the northwest region methanol prices.

Next month forecast to Hong Kong is still not much

Is the main consumer of methanol olefin, pre Ningbo flight due to equipment problems short load down to 60%, has been restored, Xing Xing energy load to 80%, Nanjing is expected to maintain normal operation of Wison, these sets of olefin plant December will resume normal operation. According to the law in previous years, into December, the traditional downstream will enter the off-season demand, will gradually reduce the operating load. The Spring Festival this year earlier than in previous years, do not rule out the formaldehyde factory work may advance the Chinese New Year; Nanjing BP50 million tons of acetic acid plant in November 21st to stop, restart the program in early December. At present, the traditional December compared to November has been shrinking downstream demand.

In December, methanol to Hong Kong is still not enough, according to the schedule, there are about 700 thousand tons. In addition, the recent port circulation of goods continued to decline, the latest port circulation supply has plunged to 158 thousand and 300 tons, the port is to inventory status. According to statistics, at present, the coastal areas (Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Southern China) methanol inventory has dropped to 669 thousand and 600 tons from 1 million 151 thousand and 600 tons, almost halved in the low level of history, it will also support methanol prices.

Overall, in port stocks at low, estimated in December to Hong Kong is still not much and northwest shipping pressure weakened in the background, is expected to fall sharply in December the possibility of methanol is not recommended cautiously bearish.

chemical industry as a traditional industry, the quiet surface contains the active risk and opportunity. Environmental supervision enterprises must continue to strike out, green and sustainable way; overcapacity is still a serious problem, but more need to guard against the deterioration in demand; raw material route and process change and promote the industry reshuffle, new material technology innovation brings surprises, which will also contain investment opportunities worth looking forward to the chemical industry; deeply involved in globalization, wary of elements the cost of weakening the competitiveness of the industry. In 2017, we believe that from the following aspects of looking for investment opportunities, low oil prices, demand robust sub industry layout. Daily chemical and food additives industry needs a steady growth. Ahead of the layout of the The Belt and Road “, entered the harvest period subject to capture. The pesticide recovery was exposed sharp, on the structure of a strong variety. Focus on areas of strength, build intensive and meticulous farming industry. New materials, times new materials (600458.SH) PI film project progress than expected, electronic grade PI film import substitution space is wide, rail business increased steadily, BOGE improve the performance of high temperature nylon and other new materials is also worth looking forward to, the proposed active interest.

This week, WTI crude oil rose 4.97%, to close at $47.96 / barrel; Brent crude oil fell rose 4.57%, to close at $49 / barrel; NYMEX natural gas rose 7.87%. Due to the recent rain and snow effects, before the end of two alkali enterprises stocking in advance, two alkali market continues to heat up, heavy soda ash, light soda ash rose 13.64%, 5.8%. This week, the domestic MDI by major manufacturers maintenance polymerization, delivery time is difficult to restore, drying out of stock market rose, rose 10.25%, but subject to the off-season demand flat high acceptance is limited, still need to slow digestion. In addition, this week the downstream tire operating rates remain high, and domestic areas stop cutting period comes, rubber prices continued to be strong, up 11.6%. This week, epichlorohydrin by 8.64% ammonium chloride by 5.77%. Urea appeared back slightly, down 1.96%.

recently, the Ministry of raw material industries Division issued a document, the “petrochemical and chemical industry development plan (2016 ~ 2020)” interpretation.

Petrochemical and chemical industry is an important pillar industry of the national economy. “13th Five-Year” (2016 ~ 2020) during the “planning” of the tire industry in the economic development and the integration of the two aspects, put forward a clear goal.

According to the National Bureau of statistics industry, petrochemical and chemical industries including chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing, rubber industry and oil processing “in three parts.

Among them, the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing and rubber products industry accounted for 76% of the total economy industry “,” petroleum processing “accounted for 24%.

“Chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing” and “rubber products industry” the growth rate of industrial added value, and the coefficient of elasticity is 1.46 GDP.

The supply side, surplus relief, competition structure optimization

At present, silicone monomer effective production capacity of about 2 million 500 thousand tons / year, output of about 1 million 800 thousand tons, the operating rate has increased to more than 70%, the future of the new productivity growth slowed sharply, demand will still maintain a growth rate of about 5%, the industry operating rate will continue to improve. At the same time, tighter environmental protection is a big trend, especially in the central part of the ongoing environmental inspectors, shutting down the device will be normalized. The competition in the industry structure optimization, four companies of the industry concentration is close to 50%, capable of producing silicone intermediate enterprises only 13, the price war is expected to end.

The demand side, demand for real estate has channeled, will continue

Silicone downstream about 23% of the demand comes from real estate, real estate is mainly used for decoration, with new and second-hand housing are closely related. In the first half of 16, the real estate industry ushered in a wave of construction peak, rising demand has gradually transferred to the silicone industry. Although the purchase of the policy tightening, but in view of new construction brought the demand lag and still high volume of second-hand housing transactions, we believe that real estate demand will continue to bring more than half the time. And the export quantity of demand also increased slightly.

recently silicone industry chain price central upward and intermediate DMC price has been since the end of July 12500 yuan / ton in November 28th rose to 16800 yuan / ton, up 34%, we determine the silicone industry bottoming out, as long as 5 years of winter has passed, the future is expected to continue to rise, the price is expected to return to DMC 20 thousand yuan / ton. The cost of the end, the rising price of energy prices will be the central uplift of silicone industry; the supply side, making some long-term loss capacity shut down, and constantly improve the industry concentration, and environmental protection has led to some capacity interruption of normalization, the degree of excess industry significantly ease. The demand side, the first half of the real estate demand for transmission over, demand will continue to improve. As prices rise, the industry is expected to usher in a wave of restocking market, prices can smooth down the conduction, the profitability of the industry will also increase, we also observed the DMC and raw material price has expanded over the first half of 1800 yuan / ton.

The cost of terminal energy price the price of central uplift of the silicone industry

The increase in coal and hydropower prices and transport costs will be the price of central uplift of the silicone industry. The organosilicon industry tremendous energy, energy costs accounted for more than 50% of the total cost, especially silicon metal production, power consumption per ton of silicon metal is about 12000kw.h, so the silicon metal are built in Yunnan, Sichuan, Xinjiang and other areas of cheap coal or electricity. With the arrival of the dry season, Yunnan, Sichuan price increase, the area of silicon metal production will decline. While the domestic coal price increases, the probability of 2017 will remain high, we expect the cost of electricity in Xinjiang will rise. While the transport of overloading tighter, increased transportation costs are transferred to silicone cost.

In order to encourage pesticide production enterprises merger and reorganization, eliminate backward, adjust the industrial structure, in November 14, 2016, the Ministry will give up the 2016 list of the seventh batch of pesticide production qualification in related businesses under the voluntary help enterprises be publicity, publicity time from November 2016 14 to November 21, 2016.

The current rise in fertilizer prices both factors of the return value, there are factors of reduced supply, there are also cost push factors, there are factors of inflation expectations, but to support the continued high, logistics factors contributed!
Before Paul coal did not complete the task, the regional tension capacity problem is difficult to alleviate, unless to adjust the policy, but in the short term, the price of the finished part of fertilizer varieties.

The government’s strong intervention, often can quickly break the market deadlock, such as this year’s supply side reform, this is the macro-control benefits, but regulation is often lagging behind, once behind, it will cause the market change radically. The Commission has been aware of the problem, and constantly modify control policy for coal. Reportedly, the new policy may take 330 working days to relax next spring warm end. The Commission is a “best effort”, but the coal to Paul, an important part of the national economy and other industries, can not give up no matter. In the area of lack of capacity, the NDRC is incapable of action, so the transportation departments is not the lack of response to regional transportation problem? We have to wait and see!

Yesterday, chemical collective outbreak, rubber (18135980, 5.71%) the main 1701 contract closed in the limit of methanol, the 1701 main contract hit a limit, asphalt, PP main 1706 contract 1701 main contract also rose more than 3% and 2%. respectively.

In fact, after entering in October, chemical plate varieties by virtue of its fundamental improvement, the formation of resonance with domestic commodity bull market atmosphere, almost ignoring changes in oil prices and the volatility of the external market opened since the beginning of low rebound after the third round of the wave, the Bulls still apparently reluctant to give up, made a comeback in the “double eleven” after the fall.

The disk, HuJiao main 1701 contract morning pull straight up, the sealing plate after trading to close at 17130 yuan / ton, the price hit a new high stage, rose to nearly three year high. In the recent HuJiao fundamentals continue to improve under the guidance of performance is very strong, on the one hand, the heavy truck and car sales data continued strong recovery; on the other hand the stop cutting around the corner, an important theme of stop cutting period reduced supply is long speculation. In addition, due to the international oil prices rise to help market sentiment warmer, but also limit the methanol before noon, near the late opening, the price also hit a new high stage, up to a year and a half high, coal prices high to form a strong support for the cost, and to accelerate the inventory boost the trend of methanol.

Bankuailundong is normal

Analysts pointed out that in the different period, the commodity market has characteristics of round plate, high income, asset shortage driven funds not only in the categories of assets such as stock market, bond market, property market and commodity and other major categories of asset rotation, but also exist in the commodity characteristics of internal rotation.

while the black line seems to have died down, chemical rose, and drive the entire commodity market yesterday immersed in a strong bullish atmosphere.

In theory, international oil prices and domestic chemicals futures are positively related, one is the cost of reason, on the other hand, the market sentiment. That is not to say that oil prices rose after the crash, chemicals can close their eyes orders?

In addition, the commodity market Bankuailundong obvious characteristics. So, what is the chemical after a hot plate and the investment opportunities?

Chemical products rose across the board

The chemical industry has been the lack of sales personnel, the main demand region in the southwest, East and North China. Therefore, sales personnel will maintain a consistent business momentum, data show that in mid November 2016, the recruitment of sales personnel demand over the same period last year rose 11%.

The sales manager of the recruitment needs of the largest increase

Over the same period last year rose 13%. with the increasing market competition, enterprises also pay more attention to know technical sales and product technical sales personnel. This talent is bound to become the object of the business enterprise