Yesterday, the domestic methanol market weakened, and some manufacturers lowered their ex factory quotations by about 20-50 yuan / ton. On August 18, the closing price of methanol in Asia, Europe and the United States was flat compared with yesterday, and the international market was relatively stable. The unit operating rate of production enterprises in the northwest main production area is maintained at 60-80%, and the shipment situation is acceptable, and some enterprises plan to overhaul their devices. On the downstream side, the formaldehyde market was mainly stable, the dimethyl ether Market was rising, and the acetic acid market was weak. The fluctuation of downstream product market is not obvious. Business agency methanol analysts predict that the domestic methanol market is mainly sorted out today.

Summary of methanol market prices in different regions yesterday:

Regional price

1160-1250 yuan / ton in Qinghai

1390-1400 yuan / ton in Shanxi

1600-1650 yuan / ton in Liaoning

1700-1720 yuan / ton tank in Fujian

RMB 1605-1620 / t spot exchange in Lianghu area

Anhui Province 1610 yuan / ton delivery acceptance

Henan Province 1450-1470 yuan / ton

1、 Price trend

According to the business club’s big list data, the price of pure benzene continued to rise this week, boosted by multiple positive. On August 9, the listed price of pure benzene was 3330-3450 yuan / ton (average price was 3440 yuan / ton); on Sunday (August 16), the listed price of pure benzene was 3200-3400 yuan / ton (average price was 3360 yuan / ton), and the average price was 80 yuan / ton or 2.33% lower than last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

This week, some downstream units of pure benzene were overhauled in the north, and the supply of goods was sent to East China, and the downstream price reduction intention was obvious. External market weakness, coupled with Sinopec North China listing price down to 3300 yuan / ton, the bottom support weakened, this week pure benzene fell significantly. This week, pure benzene port inventory rose slightly, still waiting for unloading, inventory high.

On the external side, the external market continued to weaken this week. On Friday (August 14), the import of pure benzene from South Korea was US $429.33/t, down by US $7 / T, or 1.6%, compared with August 7; and that of East China was 440 US dollars / ton, down 5 US dollars / ton, or 1.12% compared with August 7.

In terms of crude oil, crude oil rose at the beginning of this week. However, in the second half of the week, major institutions have successively lowered their forecasts for global crude oil demand this year, dragging down oil prices. Compared with August 7, Brent was up $0.255/barrel, or 0.58%, and WTI was up $0.82/barrel, or 1.98%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent decreased by 33.33%, and WTI decreased by 30.38%.

Downstream, styrene weak decline this week, operating rate than the previous week has decreased. On August 14, the price of styrene in Shandong was 5250 yuan / ton, down 116.67 yuan / ton or 2.17% from last week.

At present, aniline is in a loss state, and enterprises may reduce the negative insured price. On August 14, the price of aniline in Shandong was 4200-4330 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 4300-4500 yuan / ton, which was stable this week.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, the three major institutions have lowered their oil demand forecasts for this year, oil producing countries will increase crude oil supply in August, and the market is worried that public health events will continue to affect crude oil demand, and the oil price will continue to fluctuate in the short term.

Crude oil and external market trend downward, downstream price downward intention is obvious, port inventory high, bottom support weakened, is expected to continue to decline next week.

1、 Price trend:

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of caustic soda was mainly weak and stable this week. The average price in Shandong market from the beginning of the week to the end of the week was 475 yuan / ton, down 32.62% in the same period last year. On August 16, the commodity index of caustic soda was 68.35, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 66.96% from 206.87 (2017-11-14), and 1.06% higher than the lowest point of 67.63 on May 10, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The price of domestic liquid caustic soda is basically stable, the awareness of price rising in upstream is strong, the demand of downstream is weak, and the rise is weak. At present, the price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda is weak in Shandong Province. The mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is 410-510 yuan / ton. The price pressure of domestic liquid caustic soda is large, the downstream demand is weak, and the supply of caustic soda is sufficient. It is expected that the price of caustic soda in Shandong will be weak in the future. The caustic soda in Inner Mongolia is in stable operation temporarily, and the mainstream quotation is about 1500-1600 yuan / T (100%). The market transaction atmosphere is not good, the downstream needs to purchase on demand, the transaction is general, and the enterprise mainly delivers goods. It is expected that the consolidation and operation of Inner Mongolia will be the main trend in the near future. The caustic soda in Hebei Province has been running steadily for a while, with the mainstream quotation of 470-580 yuan / T. the market atmosphere is not good. The downstream needs to purchase on demand, and the transaction is general, and the enterprise mainly delivers goods. It is expected that the stable operation of Hebei region will be the main trend in the near future. The caustic soda in Henan Province is in stable operation temporarily, and the mainstream quotation is 1500-1600 yuan / T (100 yuan). The market transaction atmosphere is not good. The downstream needs to purchase according to demand, and the transaction is general. The enterprise mainly delivers the goods. It is expected that the stable operation of Henan Province will be the main trend in the near future.

This week, the overall performance of domestic main production areas of liquid chlorine is weak, the current market transaction situation is still not optimistic. The mainstream turnover of Shandong liquid chlorine tanker is 400-550 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction tends to the low end.

Demand: from the downstream point of view, due to the recent fall in the price of alumina and poor demand for terminal electrolytic aluminum, some alumina production plans have been made. 75% and 40% of other papermaking and printing and dyeing were started. There is no sign of an improvement in demand. The imbalance between supply and demand continues.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 32nd week (8.10-8.14) of 2020, there are 1 kind of commodity rising and 2 kinds of falling commodity in the price rising and falling list of chlor alkali industry, and 2 kinds of commodities with the rise and fall of 0. The main commodities that rose were calcium carbide (0.37%); the main commodities that fell were hydrochloric acid (- 1.47%) and PVC (- 0.77%). This week, the average rise and fall was – 0.37%.

According to the analysts of business agency, the price of domestic liquid caustic soda is basically stable, which coincides with the off-season demand for caustic soda, and the price is mainly rigid. The weakening of downstream demand leads to price weakening. Shandong’s performance was stable, and caustic soda inventory continued to increase. The price of alumina has fallen again recently, and the demand for terminal electrolytic aluminum is not good, and some alumina production plans are planned. 75% and 40% of other papermaking and printing and dyeing were started. There is no sign of an improvement in demand. Generally speaking, the downstream demand can’t pull the price of caustic soda better for the time being. The price of caustic soda is mainly operated in a short-term or weak stable way, and the downstream market demand is the specific factor.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, today’s market comprehensive price is 13800 yuan / ton. The domestic PC market is stable and rising, the price is running at a high level, the demand is rising, the inventory is not under pressure, and the shipment is smooth at present.

The price of domestic PC market rose this week, which was 1.47% higher than that of the same period last week. The companies were cautious in trading and purchased on demand. East China’s price was 13200-15050 yuan / ton, middle and high-end was 14900-16000 yuan / ton. As of August 14, the latest price of Shanghai mitsubishi was 15700 yuan / ton, Luxi Chemical was 13500 yuan / ton, and Lihua yiweiyuan was 13500 yuan / ton. Be cautious in trading.

The upstream bisphenol A is running at a high level with a positive trading atmosphere. Most of them are purchased on demand with sufficient supply. The reference range is around 10050-10100 yuan / ton, and the transaction is average.

On August 13, the rubber and plastic index was 617 points, down 1 point compared with yesterday, 41.79% lower than 1060 (2012-03-14), and 16.86% higher than the lowest point of 528 on April 06, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

Business agency PC analysts believe: the PC market is expected to narrow in the short term. (the above prices are provided by major PC manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by business PC analysts for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.)

In the first week of August, the strong situation of DME market completely disappeared, and it entered the downward channel again. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market on August 1 was 2366.67 yuan / ton, and that on August 7 was 2243.33 yuan / ton, down 5.21% on the 7th, up 2.28% from July 1.

Regional varieties and specifications up and down compared with the previous day

Mass fraction of dimethyl ether in Henan Province: ≥ 99.0% – 30 / – 30 – 2170-2270 yuan / ton

Mass fraction of dimethyl ether in Hebei Province: ≥ 99.0% 0.2325 yuan / ton

Mass fraction of dimethyl ether in Shandong area: ≥ 99.0% 0.2200 yuan / T

From January 1 to 7, the DME market as a whole fell in a weak position, with a general trading atmosphere. August is still hot, the weather temperature is high, terminal demand is weak, downstream resistance to high prices, mentality is more cautious, enthusiasm for entering the market has not improved. At the beginning of the week, the focus of DME production in Henan Province shifted downward, and most enterprises reduced their prices. Nevertheless, the atmosphere of downstream market entry was still not active, manufacturers’ shipment was blocked, and inventory gradually accumulated. Other regions, affected by pessimism, followed the decline mainly, but the decline was less than that of the main production areas.

At present, the domestic DME operating rate is about 11%, slightly higher than last week. On August 3, the civil gas market mainly fell, with limited support for the market. The downstream purchase enthusiasm is general, the market transaction atmosphere is light. In order to promote the shipment, xinlianxin and Yima in Henan Province lowered the price twice, but the effect was not obvious. The pressure on manufacturers to ship goods was still great, and the inventory was accumulated. On August 6, some enterprises in Henan Province lowered their prices twice again, while others followed suit. Limited market price, good.

Due to the excessive rise in early July, the downstream still has resistance to the current high price, and the resistance of manufacturers to shipment increases, and the inventory increases slightly. At present, the cost of methanol finishing operation, the trading atmosphere is general, the quotation of main enterprises in Henan rises narrowly, the offer of other enterprises is stable, and the support to dimethyl ether Market is limited. The rise in international crude oil prices has boosted the market mentality. The overall strength of the LPG civil market has brought certain benefits to the market. It is expected that in the short term, the DME market may follow the trend of LPG, and will be mainly strong.

Since August, the price trend of domestic rare earth market has continued to rise. The price of domestic light rare earth praseodymium and neodymium series has increased greatly. The price of holmium and terbium in medium and heavy rare earth market has been rising. According to the rare earth plate index of business society, the rare earth index on August 6 was 353 points, 3 points higher than yesterday, and 64.7 points lower than the highest point of 1000 points in the cycle (2011-12-06) 0%, up 30.26% from 271, the lowest point on September 13, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

As of the end of the week, the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in China was 318500 yuan / ton, up 7.42% from 296500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week; the price of praseodymium and neodymium alloy was 398500 yuan / ton, 5.98% higher than 376000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week; the price of neodymium oxide was 336500 yuan / ton, 6.83% higher than that of 315000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week; the price of metal neodymium was 417500 yuan / ton, 4.38% higher than that of 400000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week The market price of light rare earth has risen sharply.

In recent years, the price of PR and nd Series in domestic light rare earth has continued to rise. At present, the industry is full of confidence in the promotion of national rare earth storage, and the willingness of large factories to store up goods is stronger, which will continue to promote the price of medium and heavy rare earth. It is worth mentioning that at present, the price of light rare earth is also supported by the expected warming of light rare earth included in the scope of collection and storage. On the other hand, in recent years, downstream inquiries have increased, major light rare earth manufacturers are reluctant to sell, downstream feel the change of market sentiment, and speed up the inquiry and procurement cycle. In August, the prices of rare earths in the domestic market have been rising, and the prices of light rare earth manufacturers have been rising.

This week, the price trend of domestic legitimate family rose slightly. As of the end of the week, the price of dysprosium oxide was 1.865 million yuan / ton, which was 0.54% higher this week. The price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 1.84 million yuan / ton. In the domestic rare earth collection and storage plan, the proportion of medium and heavy rare earth in the annual output was relatively large, which was expected to have a great impact on the supply and demand and price of medium and heavy rare earth. In addition, Myanmar’s customs clearance is still on the domestic import and supply of medium and heavy rare earth As a result, the price of some medium and heavy rare earths has also been pushed up by changes in fundamentals. For example, the supply of terbium is relatively tight this year, and the manufacturers’ production is not continuous. The price of terbium oxide and metal terbium has reached the high level of nearly seven years. Recently, the stock market has improved, and the domestic market price of medium and heavy rare earth has increased slightly.

The Ministry of industry and information technology issued the notice on the docking and implementation of preferential policies for rare earth industry. According to the notice, the rare earth office entrusted China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association and China Rare Earth Industry Association to sort out and summarize the policy documents suitable for the application of rare earth enterprises, and formed a collection of supporting policies for the resumption of work and production of rare earth industry. Favorable policies support the development of rare earth industry. Meanwhile, Sino US relations are tense. Key products of rare earth trade between China and the United States are of great significance. The national policy is conducive to the balance of supply and demand in the rare earth industry. Recently, the supply of rare earth market is normal, and the demand has improved, and the domestic rare earth market is rising.

In recent years, domestic demand for rare earth has increased compared with that before. In addition, dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide account for 52% and 190% of the output in 2019 respectively in the remaining amount of rare earth reserves in the 13th Five Year Plan period. Once the purchase and storage are carried out as scheduled, the domestic rare earth market price may continue to rise.

Trade name: sulfuric acid

Latest price (August 5): 427.50 yuan / ton

On August 5, the market price of sulfuric acid in Shandong was temporarily stable, which was in line with the quotation on August 3. The upstream sulfur price has risen slightly recently, and the cost support of sulfuric acid is strong. Some sulphuric acid factories are short of operation, the load is reduced, the sulfuric acid supply is tight, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is general.

Recently, the market price of sulfuric acid in Shandong Province may fluctuate slightly, and the quotation is about 430 yuan / ton.

The commodity index of hydrogenated benzene on July 30 was 34.49, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 66.19% from 102.01 (2014-01-09), and increased by 15.01% from 29.99, the lowest point on April 07, 2020. (Note: the period refers to December 1, 2013 to now).

Price rise and fall of domestic main hydrobenzene markets from July 27 to 31 (unit: yuan / ton)

Regional prices rose and fell on the 27th and 31st

East China 3200 ～ 3250 3300 ～ 3400 + 125

Shandong Province 2950-3100 3100-3200 + 125

Summary of price adjustment of pure benzene in Sinopec (North China) in July 2020 (unit: yuan / ton)

Price adjustment amount after date adjustment

July 1 3050 – 200

July 23 3100 + 50

July 27 3200 + 100

30 July 3300 + 100

In July 2020, Sinopec increased the ex factory price of pure benzene three times and lowered it once. As of the end of the month, Sinopec implemented 3300 yuan / ton of pure benzene in North China, an increase of 50 yuan / ton compared with the same period of last month.

This week, Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene increased by 200 yuan / ton. The price of pure benzene in Shandong was boosted. This week, the price of pure benzene continued to rise. The focus of pure benzene market negotiation rose, and the fundamentals were highlighted. The external market of pure benzene recovered and rose for three consecutive days. Although the current port inventory is still high, there are purchase intentions in some markets near the end of the month, which supports the price rise of pure benzene. The price of hydrogenated benzene market is supported by the favorable fundamentals.

One week price change of hydrobenzene market in Shandong

Market July 27 July 28 July 29 July 30 July 31

Shandong Province: 2950 ～ 3100 2950 ～ 3100 3100 ～ 3150 3100 ～ 32003100 ～ 3200

It can be seen from the above figure that the market price of hydrogenated benzene in Shandong has continued to rise this week. Sinopec raised the ex factory price of pure benzene twice on the 27th and 30th, with an accumulative increase of 200 yuan / ton. The external market of pure benzene rose for four times. This week, the bidding price of crude benzene in Shandong increased by 155 yuan / ton, and the current implementation is 2470-2475 yuan / ton. Good fundamentals promote the recovery of hydrobenzene market, prices continue to rise this week, and some enterprises have plans to restart.

Start up of some hydrogenated benzene units in 2020

Enterprise name device status device capacity remarks

Shandong Shengyun Chemical Park 100000 tons

Shandong Derun Chemical Park 150000 tons

Shandong Jinneng Chemical Industry Park 100000 tons

Panjin Ruide parking 200000 tons, there are plans in the near future, to be determined

Shandong Huineng chemical 50% 200000 tons

Recently, there are still a lot of overhauling in hydrogenated benzene enterprises, some of which have been shut down for more than three months. The units of Tangshan Baoshun, Panjin Ruide, Jinneng and shouchuang have been shut down. The restart time is still to be determined, and the overall operating rate in East China is still low.

The cost pressure of hydrogenated benzene enterprises remains, and there are still many maintenance devices. The profits of downstream products have improved recently, and the demand has slightly improved compared with the previous period.

In the aftermarket, the business club believes that the pressure of hydrobenzene market cost remains, and the crude oil price fluctuates, which has caused a certain degree of market wait-and-see sentiment. In the future, the market still needs to focus on the changes of pure benzene inventory.

Price trend:

According to the business agency data monitoring, the contract price of o-benzene Sinopec fell in July. As of July 31, Sinopec has offered 4400.00 yuan / ton of o-xylene in East China and 4400 yuan / ton in North China, which is lower than that at the beginning of the month. The market of o-xylene is weaker, and the contract price of o-xylene in North China falls.

Price trend of raw materials

It can be seen from the mixed xylene price trend chart that the mixed xylene price fluctuated and fell in July, the cost of raw materials of o-benzene decreased, the market of o-benzene was negative, and the downward pressure of o-benzene market increased.

Trend of downstream products

It can be seen from the phthalic anhydride price trend chart that the phthalic anhydride price went down all the way in July and the market fell. The downstream demand of o-benzene decreased and the market of o-benzene was negative.

Future forecast:

According to Bai Jiaxin, an o-xylene data analyst from the business agency, the upstream and downstream market of the o-xylene industry chain both fell in July, which had a greater negative impact on the o-benzene market and increased the pressure on the decline of o-benzene; the negative pressure on the o-xylene market was relatively large, and the o-xylene Market remained stable in July, but the downward pressure continued to increase in the future, and the o-benzene market was expected to fall in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to business agency data, on July 31, the average ex factory price of oil to ethylene glycol in North China was 3667 yuan / ton, up 67 yuan / ton or 1.85% over last week.

On July 30, the market price of ethylene glycol in East China was 3633 yuan / ton, up 68 yuan / ton or 1.91% over the same period last week.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

As of July 30, the total ethylene glycol inventory in the main ports of East China was 1.3794 million tons, a decrease of 32600 tons or 2.31% compared with last Thursday, and a decrease of 10900 tons or 0.78% compared with Monday.

In terms of shipment, Zhangjiagang and Taicang fell this week compared with last week.

At present, the operating rate of ethylene glycol is about 50%, and that of polyester is about 87%, which is slightly lower than that of last week.

In terms of equipment, the ethylene glycol plant with an annual output of 600000 tons of Xinjiang Tianye will be put into operation tomorrow with 200000 tons, and it is expected to see products in early August; the ethylene glycol unit with an annual output of 300000 tons of Zhongyan hongsifang has been reduced to 50% due to failure, which is expected to last until the end of this week.

3、 Analysis and prediction

Ethylene glycol inventory has decreased this week, but from the perspective of shipment, the reason for the decline is not due to smooth sales, but the delay in shipping. Due to the overseas epidemic situation did not appear inflection point, ethylene glycol terminal market is poor, downstream polyester inventory pressure is huge. At the same time, domestic supply side pressure brought by new capacity. Although the maintenance plan of overseas units is increasing in the near future, there will be no shortage of supply in the near future. Therefore, in the absence of long-term good conditions, glycol prices will continue to adjust low.