Domestic p-xylene price trend:

It can be seen from the trend chart of p-xylene that the price trend of this week is temporarily stable. As of the end of the week, the domestic ex factory price of p-xylene was 9000 yuan / ton, which was the same as the price of 9000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 23.29%.

Recently, domestic paraxylene supply is normal, domestic PX operation rate is about 70%, Sinochem Hongrun petrochemical 600000t unit operates stably, Yangzi petrochemical unit operates stably, Pengzhou petrochemical unit operates stably, Yangzi Petrochemical PX unit operates normally, Jinling Petrochemical unit operates stably, Qingdao Lidong unit operates at full load, Qilu petrochemical unit operates stably, and Urumqi petrochemical unit operates at about 50%, The domestic supply of p-xylene is relatively normal, and the recent supply of overseas units is relatively normal. This week, the crude oil price trend is rising, and the domestic p-xylene price trend is temporarily stable. This week, the PX external price has not changed much. As of the 18th, the closing price in Asia was US $1058-1060 / T FOB Korea and US $1076-1078 / T CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX devices in Asia has remained low, and PX exported to China is still tense. The closing price trend of PX external price is slightly lower, and the domestic market price of paraxylene is temporarily stable.

This week, the crude oil price first fell and then rose. On the whole, the crude oil price rose slightly. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $90.50/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $96.59/barrel. Dragged down by the economic data of major consumer countries, the market again raised concerns about the global economic recession. The international oil price fell for three consecutive trading days. The WTI fell from US $94 on the 11th to US $86 on the 16th, setting a new low since February. In addition, the Iranian nuclear negotiations were resumed. The market was waiting for the results of the negotiations on the resumption of the Iranian nuclear agreement. The market also responded to the expectation of Iran’s oil release. Since Wednesday, oil prices have swept away the haze and rebounded strongly. As of August 18, international crude oil futures rebounded for two consecutive trading days. On Thursday, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $90.50/barrel, up US $2.39 or 2.7%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $96.59/barrel, down US $2.94 or 3.1%. On the one hand, US inventory data support. In addition, on Thursday, the economic data released by the U.S. Department of labor showed strong performance, and the demand for refined oil remained strong, diluting the worries about the slowdown of fuel demand caused by the risk of economic recession.

This week, the downstream PTA market price trend declined. As of the 19th, the average PTA market price was 6100-6200 yuan / ton. The PTA market trend is declining. In terms of its own supply, during the restart of some domestic PTA units, the operating load has slightly increased to more than 71%, and the supply will be increased. However, there are still many maintenance of PTA units, and the capacity operation rate is still low. This week, the start-up of downstream polyester plants declined slightly. The terminal demand was mainly based on demand. The terminal textile market was general, and the purchasing was not active. The terminal weaving load was reduced to about 47%. The factory was not willing to stock goods, and the polyester filament inventory was still high. The starting load of polyester is stable at around 77%. Under the situation of weakening demand, the social inventory of PTA begins to be accumulated, the price rise of downstream PTA is limited, and the price trend of domestic paraxylene market is temporarily stable.

Chen Ling, an analyst at PX of business club, believes that the current crude oil price is still supported, but the downstream start-up of the terminal remains low, the overall demand side is poor, and the favorable factors are insufficient. It is expected that the market price of paraxylene will remain temporarily stable in the later period.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of commodity data, the price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan and Guizhou increased this week. Last Thursday, the average price of yellow phosphorus was 27500 yuan / ton, and this Thursday, the average price was 32000 yuan / ton. Within 7 days, the price was increased by 16.36%.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of yellow phosphorus continued to rise this week. At present, the yellow phosphorus enterprises are obviously reluctant to sell. Now they mainly issue early orders. Most yellow phosphorus manufacturers do not offer external prices for the time being, and only one is discussed. At present, power is limited in Sichuan, and yellow phosphorus enterprises are shut down. Due to the impact of the epidemic situation in Weng’an District of Guizhou, the transportation of yellow phosphorus in some areas is limited, which is more troublesome than before. Some companies in Yunnan are overhauled, and the quotation is suspended. The quotation of yellow phosphorus manufacturers under normal operation was increased. Downstream enterprises mainly focus on just needs, and take it with them. Up to now, the mainstream price of yellow phosphorus in Guizhou is about 32000 yuan / ton.

In terms of phosphate rock, the domestic phosphate rock market has been consolidated at a high level this week. At present, the domestic phosphate rock supply is still tight, and the spot circulation is small. Some large phosphate rocks continue to be mainly used for their own use, while some other mining enterprises continue to receive pre-sale orders. The details are discussed in a single way according to the regional volume and other factors. For some enterprises that need to purchase phosphate ore as raw material, the continuous high price of phosphate rock and tight supply have brought certain pressure to the enterprises. On August 17, the reference price of phosphate rock was 1100.00, which was the same as that on August 1.

In terms of coke, on August 18, the market price of coke in Shandong Port increased slightly. The quasi first-class delivery price of the port was about 2700-2750 yuan / ton, and the first-class delivery price was 2800-2850 yuan / ton. The trading atmosphere of the port was general, and the overall transaction situation was weak. On August 18, the inventory of the two ports was 2.46 million tons, and the freight of Xiaoyi Rizhao was 215 yuan / ton. At present, the coke market in Shandong is temporarily stable after rising. The local coke enterprises are more active and the coke sales are better. The overall market price in Jinzhong is relatively strong, the coke enterprises start to operate, the inventory in the plant is low, the downstream demand is recovered, and the market expectation is generally good.

In terms of phosphoric acid, the price of phosphoric acid increased slightly this week. The average price of phosphoric acid on Monday was 7920 yuan / ton, and the average price on Thursday was 7940 yuan / ton. During the week, the price increased by 0.25%. The price of raw yellow phosphorus rises, and the phosphoric acid market rises slightly.

3、 Future forecast

According to the yellow phosphorus analysts of the business community chemical branch, the yellow phosphorus price will continue to rise this week as a whole. The price of phosphate rock in the upstream is high, and the price of phosphoric acid in the downstream market rises slightly. The current yellow phosphorus market is favorable due to power limitation in Sichuan and maintenance in Yunnan. It is expected that the yellow phosphorus market will continue to rise slightly in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of August 16, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was 6666 yuan / ton. Compared with August 1 (the reference price of n-butanol was 7366 yuan / ton), the price decreased by 1700 yuan / ton, a decrease of 9.50%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that in the first ten days of August, the domestic n-butanol market generally showed a weak downward trend. In the first week of August, the low-end price of the n-butanol market had dropped below 7000 yuan / ton. However, the effective support of the n-butanol Market was insufficient, the downstream demand was cold and the supply and demand transmission was slow, the decline of n-butanol was not stopped, and the center of gravity continued to drop. As of August 15, The market price of n-butanol in Shandong Province in China is around 6500-6700 yuan / ton, with a drop of more than 10% in half a month compared with the beginning of the month. 16. On the 17th, the on-site transaction of n-butanol was improved, and the quotations of some factories were slightly increased, with an increase range of 100-200 yuan / ton. At present, as of August 17, the ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong Province is around 6600-6700 yuan / ton. At present, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol has been improved and the inquiry atmosphere is better.

In terms of upstream propylene, in the first ten days of August (8.1-8.15), the overall propylene market in Shandong was in a downward trend. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the reference price of propylene was 7164.60 yuan / ton on August 16, down 2.5% compared with that on August 1 (7348.60 yuan / ton).

Post market analysis of n-butanol

At present, the transaction of new n-butanol orders has improved, and the trading atmosphere in the market has warmed up. The n-butanol datagrapher of the business society believes that in the short term, the domestic and Shandong n-butanol market will mainly operate in a stable and integrated manner, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in the supply and demand side.

1、 Price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic market price of imported potassium chloride fell slightly this week, with the price falling from 5166.67 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 5133.33 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 0.65%. This week, the factory price of domestic potassium chloride was temporarily stable. This week, the factory price of potassium chloride in domestic salt lakes is 4480 yuan / ton. On August 14, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 35.19, which was the same as yesterday, down 66.67% from the highest point of 105.58 in the cycle (September 16, 2021), and up 3.99% from the lowest point of 33.84 on August 7, 2022. (Note: period refers to September 1, 2021 to now)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the quotation of domestic mainstream manufacturers of potassium chloride dropped slightly: the factory price of potassium chloride in Qinghai Salt Lake at the weekend was about 4480 yuan / ton. Xiangyang youdeshi’s potassium chloride distribution quotation this weekend is 5200 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of this week. Zibo Dehe’s potassium chloride distribution quotation this weekend is 5000 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the week. Anhui Badou’s potassium chloride distribution quotation this weekend is 5200 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend. The price of 62% white potassium in the port is about 4800-4900 yuan / ton. The self raised price of 60% of the port red particles is about 4800-4900 yuan / ton. 62% of Russian White potassium in border trade is about 4500-4600 yuan / ton. The arrival price of 60% white potassium in Qinghai is about 4800-4900 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of the downstream market of potassium chloride, the factory price of potassium carbonate this week was adjusted at a low level, with a price of 9775.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 18.66% over the same period last year. This week, the factory price of potassium nitrate was adjusted at a low level, with a price of 7050.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 23.14% over the same period last year. On the whole, the downstream market of potassium chloride is low, and the demand of downstream customers for potassium chloride is weakened.

3、 Future forecast

The overall trend of the potassium chloride Market in the middle and late August may be dominated by a narrow fluctuation. The price of potassium chloride in Salt Lake and zangge is high, but the market supply is still limited, and the supply is relatively tight. The downstream market of potassium chloride has declined slightly, and the downstream demand has weakened, mainly due to the purchase. The international price of potash fell slightly. The potassium chloride analysts of business club believe that the import price of domestic potassium chloride may drop slightly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business society, mixed xylene rebounded slightly after falling this week. On August 5, the price was 8090 yuan / ton; On Friday (August 12), the price was 7960 yuan / ton, down 1.61% from last week and up 36.07% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

Due to the weakness of crude oil, the weakness of cost support, the poor market mentality, and the weakness of mixed xylene. With the improvement of the terminal gasoline market, the demand has been supported to a certain extent, driving the price to rebound slightly. However, the fundamentals in the field are weak, and the downstream reduction of mixed xylene export leads to increased enthusiasm for toluene, which hinders the rise of mixed xylene.

In the external market, the price of mixed xylene in Asia increased this week. On Thursday (August 11), the price of imported mixed xylene from South Korea was 998 US dollars / ton, up 36 US dollars / ton or 3.74% year-on-year; The reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was 998 US dollars / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 33 US dollars / ton, or 3.42%.

In terms of crude oil, US gasoline inventory dropped sharply this week, and gasoline demand rebounded significantly; In addition, the International Energy Agency raised its forecast of oil demand growth this year, and the pressure of demand decline was relieved. The oil price fluctuated and rose during the week. As of August 12, Brent price in this week increased by 3.23 USD / barrel or 3.4% compared with last week; WTI rose by US $3.08/barrel or 3.46%.

On the downstream side, in the PX market, the domestic PX price was stable this week. On August 5, the price was 9000 yuan / ton, and on Friday (August 12), the price was 9000 yuan / ton. The price was the same as last week, up 23.29% over the same period last year.

In the ox market, the price of ox in East China was stable this week. On Friday (August 12), the price of ox in East China was 8000 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week and increased by 26.98% over the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, the price of gasoline in Shandong Province fluctuated upward this week. On August 5, the price was 8555 yuan / ton, and on August 12, the price was 8656 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.18% over last week and 14.28% over the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, the oil market is stuck. The international oil price is still swaying in the expectation that the economic recession risk will affect demand and supply tension, and the trend is full of uncertainty. Continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, OPEC + decision on crude oil production, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic situation, etc. on crude oil prices.

The crude oil trend is still uncertain, and the cost side is not stable. At present, the gasoline blending demand is OK, but the downstream demand of chemical industry continues to be weak, and the price difference between toluene and xylene exists, so the demand for xylene is limited, and the decline of xylene may expand. Pay attention to the market trend of crude oil and gasoline, and the impact of mixed xylene and downstream device dynamics, port inventory and outer disk on mixed xylene price.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the price of PVC carbide SG5 fell this week. The average price of domestic PVC was 6668.57 yuan / ton last Friday and 6570 yuan / ton this Friday. The price fell by 1.48% in the week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic spot market of PVC rose first and then fell. On the whole, the price fell mainly. At present, the market is relatively light, and traders are not very motivated to take goods. In addition, today’s futures price has been lowered, market confidence is obviously insufficient, the market price has weakened, and the sales of goods holders are under pressure. The overall purchasing enthusiasm of downstream enterprises is poor, and the price is lowered. Up to now, the quotation range of domestic pvc5 electric stone is mostly around 6400-6750 yuan / ton.

On August 11, international crude oil futures closed higher. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $94.34/barrel, up US $2.41 or 2.6%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $99.60/barrel, up US $2.20 or 2.3%. Previous data showed that US gasoline inventories fell sharply last week; In addition, the International Energy Agency (IEA) raised the growth forecast of oil demand this year, and the data level eased the expected pressure of demand decline caused by economic recession; Combined with the soaring price of natural gas, the demand for oil as an alternative energy has been boosted.

In terms of calcium carbide, the average price of calcium carbide was 3933.33 yuan / ton last Friday and 4050 yuan / ton this Friday, with a price increase of 2.97% in the week. This week, the factory prices of calcium carbide manufacturers were mostly stable, and the prices of individual enterprises increased. The price of the upstream orchid charcoal is low, and the market is obviously destocked, and the cost support is acceptable. The downstream PVC market is in shock operation, and the purchasing enthusiasm within the week is relatively good, while the calcium carbide transaction is relatively positive.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of business club believe that the spot price of PVC rose first and then fell this week. At present, the demand of PVC spot market is general. Downstream enterprises mostly wait and see, mainly receiving orders on demand. Futures prices fell today, and traders’ enthusiasm for taking goods decreased. It is expected that in the short term, the PVC market will still be subject to a narrow range of consolidation, and we will pay close attention to the changes in the news.

According to the data of the bulk commodity list of the business community, the recent market situation of formaldehyde in Shandong is weak and consolidated. The average price of formaldehyde in Shandong is 1213.33 yuan / ton. The current price has decreased by 1.89% month on month, and the current price has decreased by 8.08% year on year.

formaldehyde

Recently, the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province has been weak and consolidated. From the above figure, it can be seen that the market of formaldehyde in the past two months has been mainly fluctuating and falling, and the recent market is basically stable. As of August 11, the mainstream market price in Shandong is 1200-1220 yuan / ton. Recently, the upstream methanol market fluctuates little, the cost support is general, the downstream operating rate has not been greatly improved, the demand for procurement is maintained, the market transaction is flat, the formaldehyde manufacturers have stable shipments, and the market is weak.

Upstream methanol: the domestic methanol market fluctuates in a narrow range. No matter in terms of production enterprises or import source prices at ports, the rise and fall are not large. Although the coal price is high, which seems to drive the methanol market to rise, the demand is low, which restricts the development of the whole industrial chain.

This week, the methanol market was adjusted at a low level, the cost support was general, the operation rate of the downstream plate factory was not improved, the demand for formaldehyde was limited, the purchase was maintained, the formaldehyde manufacturers were normally shipped, the market transaction was light, and the formaldehyde market was adjusted at a weak level.

Recently, the domestic methanol market has a downward trend, and the demand of downstream wood panel plants continues to be poor. Therefore, the formaldehyde analysts of business social chemical branch predict that the recent decline in the price of formaldehyde in Shandong is mainly weak.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the polyaluminum chloride commodity index on August 7 was 115.07, which was the same as yesterday, down 19.33% from the highest point 142.64 (2021-11-01) in the cycle, and up 36.47% from the lowest point 84.32 on August 18, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

As shown in the figure, the monitoring data of the business agency shows that the domestic market of polyaluminum chloride decreased slightly by 0.58% in that week (August 1-7), and the mainstream price of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride at the beginning of the week was 2141.25 yuan / ton, and the main price at the end of the week was 2128.75 yuan / ton. Domestic manufacturers have normal production, sufficient stock, insufficient cost support, weak demand, and a negative market attitude. Some manufacturers have reduced their quotations slightly.

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream raw materials, the monitoring data of hydrochloric acid: Business Agency shows that the average price of domestic hydrochloric acid market dropped from 196.67 yuan / ton to 166.67 yuan / ton in that week (August 1-7), a decrease of 15.25%. Compared with the same period last year, it decreased by 40.48%. According to the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic market price of hydrochloric acid will be lowered in this week. From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the market of liquid chlorine in the upstream is low, the cost support is general, the market in the downstream is empty, and the purchasing enthusiasm is weakened. The analysis shows that hydrochloric acid is mainly subject to small fluctuations and falls in the near future.

Liquefied natural gas is used in the production process. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas on August 1 was 6520 yuan / ton, and the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas on August 5 was 6456 yuan / ton. During the week, the price of domestic liquefied natural gas fell by 0.98%. The market trend of liquefied natural gas was concentrated in decline, and the decline on Friday was postponed, and some regions showed rebound. At present, the cost side is strongly supported, and the demand side is waiting to be released. It is expected that the LNG price will fluctuate slightly in the short term, mainly for consolidation and operation.

Future forecast: in the near future, the support force of raw material cost will continue to weaken, market confidence will be empty, downstream demand will be light, and the transaction will be general. It is expected that the future polyaluminum chloride market will be stable and weak.

According to the data of the trade agency’s bulk list, as of August 8, the average price of domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide enterprises was 473333.34 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of last Monday (August 1) and that of July 8, with a year-on-year increase of 0.71% in a three-month cycle.

In the near future (8.1-8.8), the domestic industrial lithium hydroxide Market has been stable. Recently, the price of upstream lithium carbonate fluctuated and increased, which has a certain support for lithium hydroxide. The overall supply of the market is mainly stable, the demand side is weak, the shipping atmosphere is flat, and the negotiation focus of domestic industrial lithium hydroxide Market is stable.

For upstream lithium carbonate, according to the data monitoring of the business agency, the price of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate has been rising continuously. On August 8, the reference price of lithium carbonate was 462600.00, up 0.35% compared with that on August 1 (461000.00).

According to the lithium hydroxide analysts of business club, the current cost support is slightly rising, and the supply and demand support is weak. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide market price may be stable, and more attention should be paid to market information and guidance.

This week, the trend of lead market (7.29-8.5) fell first and then rose. The average price of domestic market was 15195 yuan / ton last weekend and 15135 yuan / ton this weekend, down 0.39%.

The K-bar chart of commodity price reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart by using the idea of the K-line of price trend. Investors can buy and sell according to the changes of the K-bar chart. Red indicates rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall.

According to the price monitoring of the trading society, in the list of commodity price rises and falls in the 31st week of 2022 (8.1-8.5), there are 4 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that have increased month on month, and the top 3 commodities are gold (1.39%), zinc (1.27%) and aluminum (0.56%). There were 16 commodities with a month on month decline, and 4 commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 17.4% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were neodymium oxide (- 6.14%), praseodymium oxide (- 5.85%) and metal neodymium (- 5.58%). This week’s average increase or decrease was – 1.9%.

Lead futures market situation this week

Variety, closing price, compared with the same period last week, inventory

Shanghai lead, 15185 yuan / ton, – 55 yuan / ton, 60056 tons

London lead., 2079.5 US dollars / ton, + 43 US dollars / ton, 38875 tons

In terms of futures, Lun lead was under pressure this week, with the overall operating range of US $2060-2001 / ton. In terms of the macro situation this week, the geopolitical situation was tense and the risk aversion psychology was strong. The metal market was generally under pressure and the trend of Shanghai lead was basically similar to that at the beginning of the week. On Friday, the metal market mentality was boosted by the fall of the US dollar index. The metal market as a whole rose, and the price of Shanghai lead rose slightly.

Basically, the supply has not changed much recently. The refineries have completed maintenance and resumed production one after another. This week, the output of primary lead is relatively stable. On the downstream side, boosted by the end of the seasonal off-season and the coming of the peak season, the sales of storage batteries have improved to a certain extent, which has significantly supported the lead price. However, with the lead price rising, the actual transaction situation in the current market is lower than that in the previous period, and the whole downstream is on the sidelines. In terms of inventory, the overall performance of lead inventory removal is relatively slow. In a comprehensive view, the current macro performance of the lead ingot Market is acceptable. The demand in the downstream peak season is expected to increase, which has a certain support for the lead price. It is expected that the lead price will have a certain room to rise under the boost of demand. In the case of Limited changes in the fundamentals, focus on the macro impact.