In the middle of September, the domestic dimethyl ether market was dominated by price shocks, and the Henan market showed a trend of first rising and then falling. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 4160 yuan/ton on September 15 and 4200 yuan/ton on September 22, with a rise of 0.96% in the week, down 2.27% compared with the same period last year.

As of September 22, the market prices of dimethyl ether in various regions in China are as follows:

Region, mainstream quotation

Jiangxi, 4300 yuan/ton

Hebei, 4590 yuan/ton

Henan Province, 4090-4200 yuan/ton

This week, the domestic dimethyl ether market was volatile. The ex factory price of Henan dimethyl ether rose first and then fell, with limited positive factors in the market. In terms of cost, the raw material methanol market has experienced ups and downs, bringing phased support to the market. The civil market of liquefied gas related products fell significantly, which was bad for the market. The lower reaches have limited ability to accept high prices, are not enthusiastic about entering the market, and mainly wait and see. The manufacturer lacked the impetus to continue rising, and most prices in Henan market fell on the 22nd. Hebei and Jiangxi markets are mainly consolidation, with limited volatility.

On September 20, the domestic methanol market rose sharply and fell back. In the early stage, the methanol price rose significantly. Recently, the rise slowed down, and prices in some regions fell back. The international crude oil price fluctuated at a high level, while the coal price supported at a high level. At present, the main reasons that affect the methanol price are supply and demand. Most of the early maintenance devices have been restarted, but the demand is general, mainly rigid, and there is no sign of increase in the short term. The traders mainly wait and see, and the international external demand is poor. The rise of the methanol market has slowed down, and the market is mainly volatile.

At present, the raw material methanol market is rising again, which brings some support in terms of cost. However, the civil market of liquefied gas fell significantly, affecting the market mentality. The downstream is cautious, has limited enthusiasm for entering the market, and the market trading atmosphere is general. The manufacturer’s shipment is blocked, and most of the factory prices are lowered. It is expected that the dimethyl ether market will not have enough momentum to rise in the short term, or it will be dominated by narrow consolidation.

Business agency data shows that the recent strong spot silver prices, gold stagflation callback, and gradually entered the range of sideways shocks. In late July, the price of precious metals stopped falling and recovered. In late August, the silver price followed the nonferrous metal market and fell deeply. Since September, it has recovered more strongly. Recently, it has also started to show a sideways trend and the upward momentum has weakened.

In the long term, the trend of precious metal prices tends to be the same, with slightly different amplitudes. What is the reason for the slight deviation of the short-term trend in the near future?

CITIC Futures believes that the future economic pressure will still enable precious metals to obtain allocation significance. We should pay attention to the shortage of silver spot against gold, which has weakened the gold silver ratio in the near future regardless of macro pricing. Whether this trend will continue remains to be seen.

Impact of economic data: It is found from the public data that the US economic data is subject to short-term tenacity disturbance, which makes the long-term anti inflation interest rate rise, and precious metals fall sharply this week. Due to the devaluation of the RMB and the expected decline of 100bp on Friday, precious metals have stabilized again. At the same time, despite the recent monetary tightening, the recession expectation has strengthened, and the precious metals still maintain a volatile pattern. This requires attention to two key data: the term structure of inflation and the term structure of real interest rates.

Dr. Zhang Wen, a researcher of CITIC Futures Precious Metals, believes: (1) From the perspective of the inflation term structure in the past three months, the short end is larger than the long end, indicating that the overall inflation control still has a long way to go; (2) From the composition of recent March, July moved down compared with June, but August moved up again, indicating that inflation data in August may not be optimistic at present; (3) From the perspective of the term structure of real interest rate, the short end moved up in August, indicating the expectation of interest rate increase, but the long end fell sharply, indicating that the recession expectation has been strengthened in recent three months.

Dr. Zhang Wen once recommended in the second quarter to focus on the reverse correlation between gold silver ratio and inflation expectations, and achieved good results. However, the latest data in September showed that silver was significantly stronger than gold, and the negative correlation had weakened previously, indicating that silver’s ability to value the macro attributes of gold had weakened.

The London Gold and Silver Association and Comex silver inventory have declined sharply since December last year, which is far lower than the value in the past five years, while Comex silver inventory has also fallen to the pre epidemic position, which may indicate that the impact of macro pricing on the abundance of silver inventory has weakened.

The impact of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike: The inflation data has greatly increased the expectation of interest rate hike. The Federal Reserve’s action in September may meet the mainstream expectation of the market. Although the two sides of the risk of interest rate increase were put forward in the speech of the Federal Reserve in the early stage, which led to a brief hesitation in the market’s expectation of interest rate increase, the speech of the Federal Reserve was still dominated by hawkish language focusing on easing inflation. At the same time, the inflation data in August made the possibility of the marginal easing of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increase fade away. The actions of the Federal Reserve in this interest rate meeting may again meet the mainstream expectations of the market.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of September 20, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in mainstream areas in China was around 1068 yuan/ton. Compared with September 11, the price was basically flat. Compared with September 1 (the reference price of phosphorus ore was 1065 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 4 yuan/ton, or 0.37%; Compared with August 1 (the reference price of phosphate rock is 1100 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 32 yuan/ton, or 2.91%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that after the Mid Autumn Festival, the domestic market for medium and high-end grade phosphate ores was mainly stable and consolidated. The market was generally quiet, with little change in information. From the supply side, the supply side is still tight, and the supply side continues to provide high support for the market. From the demand side, the low commencement of downstream phosphate fertilizer has brought some concern to the market. After the festival, the phosphate ore market was light and stable as a whole. As of September 20, the market price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in China is around 1030-1150 yuan/ton, and there is also a gap between the price and the original ore specification, powder to lump ratio and other factors. The details need to be negotiated. The market price of 28% grade phosphate ore is near 850-980 yuan/ton, and the market price of 32% grade phosphate ore is near 1200 yuan/ton. At present, the trading atmosphere in the phosphate rock yard is mild, and the downstream is mainly purchased on demand.

In terms of downstream yellow phosphorus, since September (9.1-9.19), the domestic yellow phosphorus market has been operating steadily as a whole. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the reference price of yellow phosphorus on September 19 was 36625 yuan/ton, up 14.45% compared with September 1 (32000 yuan/ton).

Forecast and analysis of phosphate rock future market trend

The National Day holiday is coming, and the downstream demand is relatively stable. The phosphorus ore data engineer of the business community believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphorus ore market is mainly stable and operates in a balanced way, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in the information on the supply and demand side.

Price trend of magnesium metal

Market analysis this week

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of the 16th, the average price in the domestic market was 24733.33 yuan/ton, down 1.98% from the beginning of the week. This week, the domestic magnesium metal market was weak due to the drag of demand, and the overall decline was not large. Most of the deals were made in the form of rigid demand.

Supply and demand

On the factory side, the factory quotation was firm at the beginning of the week, and the willingness to stabilize the market was strong. In view of the poor transaction, some factories took the initiative to reduce the price for shipment. After the centralized procurement before the festival, the downstream users bought less this week, the export order performance was poor, and the wait-and-see atmosphere in magnesium market was strong.

Raw materials

The price increase notice of raw material semicarbon was issued, and it will be implemented from the 20th day: 2000 yuan/ton for large materials, 1900 yuan/ton for medium materials, 1850 yuan/ton for small materials, and 1300 yuan/ton for semicarbon foam. The mainstream price of ferrosilicon is about 7600-7800 yuan/ton. The Ningxia manufacturer resumed production, and the supply began to recover. The futures market fluctuated. It is difficult for the spot price to fluctuate greatly before the steel plant bidding in October.

Future market forecast

To sum up, with the centralized procurement by downstream users before the festival, the overall market trading atmosphere was cold and the demand could not be followed up, resulting in the weak price performance of magnesium ingots. Considering that the price of ferrosilicon is at a high level, the price of semicarbon is raised, the cost of magnesium ingots remains high, and the magnesium factory has not lowered its quotation significantly, it is expected that the magnesium market will be slightly consolidated in the short term.

From September 9, 2022 to September 16, 2022, the bidding price of crude benzol rose. Last weekend, it was 6729 yuan/ton, and this weekend, it was 6915 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.76%.

In terms of crude oil, international crude oil futures fell sharply over the weekend. The settlement price of the main contract of the U.S. WTI crude oil futures was 85.10 dollars/barrel, down 3.38 dollars or 3.8%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 90.84 dollars/barrel, down 3.26 dollars or 3.5%. WTI crude oil fell nearly 4%, hitting a one week low. At the macro level, the Federal Reserve may significantly increase interest rates, making the dollar stronger again, depressing oil price estimates. In addition, the expectation of global economic recession continues to depress oil prices.

The crude oil analysts of the business community believe that in the short term, the good news on the supply side of the oil market and the bad news on the demand side will continue to play a game. In particular, the trend of geopolitical tension is becoming more serious, and the oil price is subject to more interference factors, which will further aggravate the shock of the oil market. The probability of short-term oil market wide shocks is high.

Summary of Sinopec Pure Benzene Price Adjustment (Unit: yuan/ton)

Date., Adjusted Price., Adjusted Amount

August 11., 7950., – 200

August 16., 7750., – 200

August 18., 7500., – 250

August 30., 7600.,+100

September 6., 7750.,+150

On September 6, 2022, the ex factory price of Sinopec pure benzene will be increased by 150 yuan/ton, and the current implementation is 7750 yuan/ton.

Other enterprises’ quotation: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7900 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 7800 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 7853 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7850 yuan/ton, Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 7950 yuan/ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the price of pure benzene has fallen continuously since July, and it has recovered slightly in late August and early September.

From the perspective of the industrial chain, the pure benzene market rose first and then fell this week. At the beginning of the week, supported by the double advantages of crude oil and styrene, the price of pure benzene rose, and downstream people generally purchased on demand. The enthusiasm for purchasing high priced goods was limited, and the overall market transaction was average. In the near weekend, with the impact of the lower crude oil price and the overall decline of styrene, the price of pure benzene decreased slightly, and the market as a whole stayed on the sidelines. However, the ex factory price of benzene hydrogenation enterprises rose overall this week, driven by the improvement of downstream procurement. On the supply side, the operating rate of pure benzene declined slightly this week, and the arrival of cargoes in East China ports was delayed, resulting in a slight shortage of market supply.

The crude benzol price continued to rise this week. The bidding price in Shandong Province this week was 6980-6985 yuan/ton, 150 yuan/ton higher than last week. In terms of supply, the overall construction of coking enterprises this week was fairly good, the supply of crude benzol was relatively stable, and the growth rate in other regions of China also remained at 100-200 yuan/ton. In terms of downstream demand, the operating rate of benzol hydrogenation enterprises declined slightly this week, but the demand for crude benzol was moderate due to the impact of pre holiday stock. In the future market, the business community believed that, near the National Day and the Twentieth National Congress, coking enterprises expected to increase their production limit in the future market, the supply of crude benzol was expected to be tight, and the industry chain was still positive. Affected by the demand for goods before the festival and other positive factors, the crude benzol market was expected to operate stably and strongly in the future market, with a certain upward space.

According to the data monitored by the business community, the prices of industrial and battery grade lithium carbonate continued to rise this week. On September 15, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 494000 yuan/ton, which was 0.82% higher than the average price at the beginning of the week (on September 11, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 490000 yuan/ton). On September 15, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 510000 yuan/ton, up 1.19% compared with the average price at the beginning of the week (on September 11, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 504000 yuan/ton).

According to the observation of market changes, lithium carbonate prices showed an upward trend this week. In terms of market supply, with the completion of power rationing and mid year maintenance in Sichuan, the commencement of lithium salt plants has risen. However, due to the shortage of supply in the early stage, in the near future, long orders in the early stage of delivery are mainly used. With the gradual release of the epidemic situation in Qinghai, some enterprises in Qinghai have delivered a small amount of goods, but the market supply is still tight.

In terms of demand, the downstream demand gap has expanded, the market procurement volume has been increasing, and the market is in a state of weak supply and strong demand. With the arrival of the fourth quarter, downstream manufacturers are actively stocking up and purchasing, and the market has entered a stage where one product is hard to find, which has driven the price of lithium carbonate up.

The downstream lithium hydroxide price remained stable, the lithium oxide market was at a high level, and the lithium carbonate price rose, driving the lithium hydroxide market significantly. The market supply was increased compared with the early stage, but the manufacturers mainly made up long orders, and the spot supply was tight. The downstream inquiry and procurement were active, and the focus of the lithium hydroxide market negotiation was at a high level.

The downstream price of lithium iron phosphate remained stable, with a small range of price fluctuations. The downstream just needed to purchase, the purchasing atmosphere was general, and the overall market was stable. At present, the manufacturer’s supply was still tight, and the supply side was obviously insufficient. The contract customers were mainly responsible for ordering and shipping, and the number of new orders was limited.

Lithium carbonate analysts from the business community believe that with the arrival of the fourth quarter, the demand for downstream market procurement has increased, but the market is bullish. The manufacturers are reluctant to sell lithium carbonate, and there are relatively few spot goods on the market. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate at a high level in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of September 13, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 10200.00 yuan/ton, 2.86% higher than that of last Wednesday (September 7), 14.82% higher than that of August 13, and 9.47% lower than that of last three months.

Recently (9.7-9.13), the market of propylene oxide has risen steadily. Recently, the market price of raw propylene has risen slightly, and the cost has some support. Before the festival, the on-site devices are mainly stable, the supply is tight, the factory shipments are smooth, the demand side follows up generally, the market is relatively strong before the festival, the market returns after the festival, the market shipments are stable, and the wait-and-see attitude is mainstream. On the 13th, the mainstream quotation of the propylene oxide market in Shandong was around 10400-10500 yuan/ton.

The upstream propylene, according to the data monitoring of the business community, on September 13, the reference price of propylene was 7350.60, up 3.52% compared with September 1 (7100.60).

The downstream propylene glycol, according to the monitoring data of the business community, the reference price of propylene glycol was 9900.00 on September 13, an increase of 7.03% compared with September 1 (9250.00).

The epoxy propane analysts of the business community believe that the current cost support is fair, the supply side is not under temporary pressure, and the demand side is flat. It is expected that in the short term, the epoxy propane market will be dominated by deadlock, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

Recent calcium carbide price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in northwest China fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China dropped by 0.89% from 3733.33 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 3700.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a year-on-year decrease of 31.69%. On September 12, the carbide commodity index was 96.94, unchanged from yesterday, down 54.32% from the highest point of 212.23 (2021-10-26) in the cycle, and up 74.70% from the lowest point of 55.49 on March 14, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The upstream cost support is insufficient, and the demand of downstream manufacturers is general

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in northwest China fell slightly this week.

The price of the upstream semicarbon market fluctuated in a narrow range, while the price of the downstream PVC market rose slightly. The PVC market price this week rose from 6447.14 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 6504.29 yuan/ton at the end of this week, an increase of 0.89% and a year-on-year decrease of 33.37%. The PVC market price rose slightly. Downstream customers were not enthusiastic about calcium carbide procurement. Downstream PVC market had a negative impact on calcium carbide price.

Downstream market fluctuates in a narrow range, and calcium carbide may fall in the future

In the middle of September, calcium carbide market fell mainly due to narrow fluctuations. The price of raw material blue carbon is weak, the cost support of calcium carbide is weak, the downstream PVC market fluctuates in a narrow range, the downstream demand is general, and the rising power of calcium carbide is insufficient. In mid September, carbide prices in northwest China may fall in a narrow range.

Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic hydrochloric acid price is temporarily stable this week, with the average market price of 163.33 yuan / ton. Compared with the same period last year, it decreased by 44.32% year-on-year. On September 4, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 42.98, which was the same as yesterday, down 68.83% from the highest point 137.89 (October 26, 2021) in the cycle, and up 139.04% from the lowest point 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

Insufficient upstream support and weak downstream procurement

Judging from the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price is temporarily stable this week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chains of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market has been consolidated at a low level, and the cost support is insufficient. The downstream polyaluminum chloride market price was adjusted at a low level, with a price of 2095.00 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 19.11%; The market price of ammonium chloride fell slightly, from 1145.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 1057.50 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 7.64%. On the whole, the upstream support is insufficient, and the enthusiasm of downstream procurement is weakened.

Future forecast

In the first ten days of September, the market price of hydrochloric acid mainly fell in a narrow range. The upstream liquid chlorine market has been consolidated at a low level recently, and the cost support is insufficient. The downstream polyaluminum chloride and ammonium chloride market have declined slightly, and the downstream purchasing intention is general. Business analysts believe that hydrochloric acid has suffered a small shock and decline recently.

According to the data monitored by the business association, the PP market rose in a narrow range in early September, and the spot price of each drawing brand rose more or fell less. As of September 5, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8083.33 yuan / ton, up or down by + 0.83% compared with the average price at the beginning of last week.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: on the upstream side, the propylene market was collated horizontally this week. Last month, the focus of spot prices continued to move downward, and the staged rebound was insufficient. The current supply pressure is OK, but the on-site demand is generally supported, and there is no centralized stock preparation operation. For the next traditional peak season, there will be limited improvement in the mentality of operators. It is expected that propylene’s rising resistance will remain, and the market may continue to sort out and operate.

The propylene price was flat on the whole, and the PP cost side was generally supported last week. In terms of industry load, the operating rate of PP polymerization enterprises has changed a little recently, and the proportion of wire drawing materials is not high. Last week, the inventory fell by a narrow margin, and the supply pressure was OK. Downstream demand has increased slightly, and power and production restrictions of some terminal factories have ended, but most of the goods are scattered small orders. Traders’ mentality is general, and the offer follows the market. It is expected that the spot market of PP wire drawing materials will be strong in the short term.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business agency, as of September 5, the spot price of domestic fiber PP was weak. The mainstream offer price of Z30S (fiber) from domestic manufacturers and traders is about 8050 yuan / ton, up or down by + 0.84% compared with the average price at the beginning of last week, with a year-on-year decline of – 5.11%. This week, the load of the main downstream non-woven fabric enterprises of PP fiber materials was stable as a whole, and the demand and operation of end enterprises were limited. The digestion speed of downstream products such as non-woven fabrics is general, enterprises reduce prices and ship goods, and the replenishment of fiber PP is biased towards bulk orders. Due to the lack of confidence of the market in the macro economic pattern and the heavy wait-and-see mood in the industrial chain, it is expected that the fiber market will have a limited increase in the short term.

In terms of meltblown materials, this week’s meltblown PP market was collated horizontally. As of September 5, the average quotation of domestic meltblown material sample enterprises monitored by the business agency was about 9166.67 yuan / ton, which was the same as the average price at the beginning of last week, with a year-on-year decrease of – 0.36%. In terms of international health events, the current situation in various countries is still not optimistic, and the recent explosive development in neighboring Japan. There is a rebound in some regions of China, but the overall epidemic prevention pressure is not strong. Medical meltblown cloth materials are in the off-season of consumption, and there is no obvious boost in domestic and foreign demand, which does not support the spot price well. The stock of meltblown materials in the market is sufficient, and the saturation of domestic meltblown materials and cloth enterprises is high. It is expected that the recent market of meltblown PP will still be dominated by weak operation.

Future forecast

PP analysts of business club believe that the polypropylene market rose narrowly last week, the raw material propylene market was sideways, and the cost side of PP was generally supported. The demand of end-users is slowly recovering, and the offers of merchants follow the market. From the survey results and market reaction, the industry is not confident about whether the demand in the traditional peak season is on schedule and sufficient due to the impact of the economic environment. It is expected that the PP market will rise or be hindered in the short term.