According to the data monitored by the business community, as of October 27, the average price of PMMA for domestic general transparent premium products was 16225.00 yuan/ton. In October, the PMMA market was strong. In October, the PMMA price rose slightly, up 0.78%. At present, the mainstream price of the market is 16100-16200 yuan/ton. The overall market is balanced in supply and demand, the atmosphere of negotiation is general, and the operating rate is normal.

As of October 14, the average price of domestic general transparent premium PMMA was 16100.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from the same period last week. PMMA prices mainly operated stably, and the overall market price fluctuation range was not large. At present, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers is about 16100 yuan/ton. It is expected that the PMMA market price will maintain stable operation, and the focus of discussion is narrow and weak. The overall market supply and demand are balanced, and the operating rate is stable, The average price of PMMA for domestic general transparent high-quality products is 16100.00 yuan/ton. The overall market is stable, and the price has not changed significantly. The quotation range of mainstream manufacturers is about 16100 yuan/ton. The merchants are active in shipping and giving up profits. The price of PMMA is stable. At present, the supply and demand of the overall market is balanced, the downstream just needs to purchase, the focus of negotiation is weak, and the supply side is normal, Latest quotation: 16800 yuan/ton from Shanghai Hongqi Plastic Technology Co., Ltd.

As of October 21, the average price of PMMA for domestic general transparent premium products was 16225.00 yuan/ton, which was stronger than that of the same period last week. The overall market price fluctuation range of PMMA is not large. At present, the mainstream manufacturers’ quotation range is about 16200 yuan/ton, and the focus of discussion is stable. The overall market supply and demand are balanced, and the operating rate is stable. This week, the average price of PMMA for domestic general transparent premium products is 16100.00 yuan/ton, and the overall market is stable, There is no significant change in the price. The quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remains around 16100 yuan/ton. The merchants actively deliver goods and make profits. PMMA prices are mainly stable. At present, the overall market is in balance of supply and demand. Downstream just needs to purchase. The focus of negotiation is weak. The supply side is normal. The latest quotation of the enterprise: Shanghai Hongqi Plastic Technology Co., Ltd. 16700 yuan/ton.

Rubber and plastic index: On October 26, the rubber and plastic index was 683 points, down 1 point from yesterday, down 35.57% from the peak of 1060 points (March 14, 2012) in the cycle, and up 29.36% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

According to the analysts of PMMA, the white carbon black market is expected to operate stably and strongly in November, and the mainstream price range is about 16200 yuan/ton.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of October 26, the average price of PET water bottle manufacturers was 7690.00 yuan/ton. In October, the market price of PET declined slightly, with a decline of 7.46% for the whole month, about 700 yuan/ton. At present, the mainstream price range is 7700 yuan/ton. The overall market supply and demand are balanced. At present, the supply side is normal, the operating rate is stable, and downstream just need to purchase.

In the first ten days of October, as of September 7, the price of PET water bottle was narrow and weak. At present, the average price is 8800 yuan/ton. The overall market is narrow and weak, down 1.79% from September 1. At present, the focus of negotiation is weak, the market shipments are average, the logistics is smooth, and the domestic PET price is narrow and weak, down slightly compared with the same period last week. At present, the market operation rate is normal, manufacturers mainly give up profits and take orders, the shipment is active, and the logistics is smooth, The overall market transaction atmosphere is general, the negotiation atmosphere is fair, the downstream readiness is general, and the cost is lack of support. At present, the mainstream price is about 8900 yuan/ton, which is slightly reduced this week. In the short term, PET is stable and weak.

In the middle and late October, as of October 20, the price of PET water bottle was narrow and weak. At present, the average price was 7690 yuan/ton, 5.88% lower than that of the same period last week, about 400 yuan/ton. The overall market was narrow and weak. At present, the focus of negotiations is low, the market shipments are general, the logistics is smooth, the operating rate is stable, and the domestic PET price is narrow and weak, 5.88% lower than that of the same period last week, about 400 yuan/ton, At present, the market operation rate is normal, the manufacturer is active in shipping, the logistics is smooth, and the supply side is normal. The overall market transaction atmosphere is general, the negotiation atmosphere is fair, and the downstream readiness is general. At present, the mainstream price is about 7700 yuan/ton, and the operation is weak.

Rubber and plastic commodity index: On October 25, the rubber and plastic index was 684 points, down 5 points from yesterday, down 35.47% from the highest point in the cycle 1060 points (March 14, 2012), and up 29.55% from the lowest point 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

PET analysts from the business agency believe that the PET market is expected to operate stably in November.

This week, the domestic propane market trend was weak, and Shandong propane market fell one after another, with significant amplitude. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average price of Shandong propane market was 5865.75 yuan/ton on October 17 and 5738.25 yuan/ton on October 21, with a weekly drop of 2.17%, 21.78% lower than the same period last year.

As of October 21, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

Region, October 21

South China, 5350-5450 yuan/ton

North China, 5900-5950 yuan/ton

Shandong, 5700-5750 yuan/ton

Northeast China, 5800-5900 yuan/ton

This week (10.17-21), the domestic propane market trend was weak, and the factory price of Shandong propane market fell continuously, with a relatively obvious range. During the week, negative factors in the market dominated, and in terms of cost, international crude oil prices mainly declined, affecting the market mentality. In addition, the decline in the price of the external market and the low cost of imported gas have brought obvious negative effects. The manufacturer has successively lowered the ex factory quotation, mainly for profit delivery. Downstream maintains replenishment on demand and is cautious.

Saudi Aramco announced in October 2022 that both propane and butane fell. Propane was 590 dollars/ton, down 60 dollars/ton from last month; Butane was 560 dollars/ton, down 70 dollars/ton from last month.

To sum up, although the benefits from current costs are limited, terminal demand is expected to increase in the later period as the weather continues to cool. It is expected that the propane market may rise in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of October 24, the average price of domestic superior rubber grade white carbon black was 5600.00 yuan/ton, and the overall market was stable but weak. At present, white carbon black is running steadily, with stable operating rate, general purchasing atmosphere, and stable overall trend. At present, the market supply is normal, and downstream just needs to purchase.

The white carbon black market mainly operates stably. Compared with the same period last week, the price change is not obvious. The main supply contract customers have stable operating rates. The downstream just needs to purchase mainly. The logistics is smooth. The market negotiation atmosphere is flat. The willingness to stock up is not obvious. The overall market operates stably.

Chemical index: On October 23, the chemical index stood at 988 points, unchanged from yesterday, 29.43% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and 65.22% higher than the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present)

The white carbon analyst of the business community thinks that the mainstream price of rubber grade white carbon is about 6000 yuan/ton, and the price changes little.

Drop first and then rise in the week

According to the data from the business community, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market on October 21 was 18676.67 yuan/ton, up 1.39% on a daily basis, falling first and then rising in the week, down 0.27%.

In the long term, the current price is 1.74% higher than the market average price of 18356.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (10.1), 17450 yuan/ton higher than the recent starting point (July 14, 2022), and 7.03% higher than the recent recovery. On the whole, it is now in the stage of platform shock after warming up.

 
Influential factors of market in the week

On the 18th, LME aluminum inventory increased by 48350 tons, a 46% increase since this month. Inventory pressure suppresses the aluminum price. According to the news, Glencore, a global bulk commodity trader, has delivered a large amount of aluminum originating in Russia to the registered warehouse of London Metal Exchange (LME) in Guangyang, South Korea. Another person familiar with the matter also disclosed that the aluminum delivered to Guangyang warehouse was produced by Rusal Aluminum Corporation (RUSAL for short). RUSAL is the largest aluminum producer outside China, accounting for 6% of the global aluminum supply of about 70 million tons.

However, according to the domestic data, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in the main market fell month on month. On the 20th, the mainstream social inventory was about 629000 tons, which was more than 30000 tons off the stock compared with 660000 tons on the 17th.

The recent rebound in aluminum prices is still at the stage of news disturbance. Only when there are a large number of supply and demand gaps in the global aluminum market can a sustained rebound trend be formed. At present, supply and demand are relatively stable, and it is expected that the trend will remain volatile in the short term.

1、 Price data

As of October 16, the average ex factory price of domestic local refining hydrogenated naphtha mainstream was 7863.33 yuan/ton, down 2.16% from 8036.67 yuan/ton on October 10. The actual transaction price of local refining hydrogenated naphtha was about 7800-8000 yuan/ton.

As of October 16, the average ex factory price of domestic straight run naphtha mainstream was 7635.00 yuan/ton, down 2.65% from 7842.50 yuan/ton on October 10. The actual transaction price of local straight run naphtha was about 7600-7800 yuan/ton.

On October 16, the naphtha commodity index was 97.05, unchanged from yesterday, 20.22% lower than the peak of 121.64 (2022-03-10) in the cycle, and 129.76% higher than the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The price of refined naphtha fell this week, and the refinery just needed to purchase. Affected by the bad news of the gasoline and diesel market, the terminal ethylene cracking demand was weak, and the market was in a wait-and-see mood. The refinery reduced the price and shipped.

Upstream: The international crude oil price fell. During the National Day, the 33rd Ministerial Conference of OPEC+decided to reduce the total daily output of OPEC+crude oil by 2 million barrels from the required daily output level in August 2022. Affected by the news of production reduction, the crude oil market price rose by 15%, but the negative pressure on the economic side was difficult to ease. The World Bank and IMF warned that the risk of global economic recession was growing, In addition, the IMF lowered its economic growth forecast for next year, and crude oil prices fell for three consecutive days after the holiday. On Thursday, the US CPI data was released. Although it was higher than expected, the stock market rebounded strongly after falling, boosting risky assets such as crude oil. In addition, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory data shows that diesel and heating oil inventories have declined significantly, overshadowing the negative impact of the increase in crude oil and gasoline inventories.

Downstream: According to the monitoring of the business community, toluene decreased slightly this week, with the price at 7790 yuan/ton on October 16 and 7790 yuan/ton on October 10, down 1.52%. The price of mixed xylene was stable this week, and it was 8400 yuan/ton on October 16. In terms of PX market, the market price of paraxylene rose this week. As of the weekend, the domestic ex factory price of paraxylene was 9300 yuan/ton, 3.33% higher than the price of 9000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week.

3、 Future market forecast

According to the energy analysts of the business community, the international crude oil price fell in shock this week, and the cost support of the naphtha market was limited. Affected by the bad news in the gasoline and diesel markets, the terminal ethylene cracking demand was weak, and the terminal local refining and reforming were in gap. The purchase was mainly just needed. The overall market was in a strong wait-and-see mood. The refinery shipments were weak, and the transaction was light. It is expected that the local refining of naphtha will be dominated by the weak in the near future.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of October 17, the average price of domestic superior rubber grade white carbon black was 5600.00 yuan/ton, unchanged compared with the same period last week. At present, white carbon black operates stably, with merchants giving up profits and taking orders. The overall market supply and demand are balanced, the procurement atmosphere is general, and the overall trend is stable. At present, the market supply is normal, the operating rate is stable, and downstream just needs to purchase.

The white carbon black market mainly operates stably, and the price change is not obvious compared with the same period last week. The downstream just needs to purchase mainly, and the contract customers are mainly supplied. The operating rate is stable, the logistics is smooth, the market negotiation atmosphere is flat, the manufacturers are active in shipping, and the overall market operates stably.

Upstream hydrochloric acid: As of October 17, the market trend of hydrochloric acid had risen, the price had risen, and the recent market of upstream liquid chlorine had risen slightly, with good cost support.

Chemical industry index: On October 16, the chemical industry index was 1005 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 28.21% from the peak 1400 points (2021-10-23) in the cycle, and up 68.06% from the lowest 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

The white carbon black analyst of the business community thinks that the rubber grade white carbon black is mainly stable, and the current mainstream price is about 6000 yuan/ton.

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, as of October 17, the average price of domestic industrial lithium hydroxide enterprises was 505000.00 yuan/ton, 4.84% higher than that on October 8, 6.69% higher than that on a three-month cycle, and 203.61% higher than that on the same period last year.

Recently (10.8-10.17), the market price of domestic industrial lithium hydroxide has risen. The upstream spodumene price is high, and the cost support is still strong. Influenced by the upstream lithium carbonate market rise, the market mentality is boosted. In addition, the demand side increment drives the lithium hydroxide enterprise’s offer upward.

The upstream lithium carbonate, according to the monitoring data of the business community: after the National Day holiday, the prices of industrial and battery grade lithium carbonate continued to rise. On October 14, the reference price of lithium carbonate was 521000.00, an increase of 3.95% compared with October 1 (501200.00).

The lithium hydroxide analysts of the business community believe that the market is still supported by positive factors, driven by upstream lithium carbonate and the steady growth of demand. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic industrial lithium hydroxide market price will be dominated by firm operation, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of steam coal was consolidated this week. On October 13, the energy index was 1173 points, up 1 point from yesterday, down 24.86% from the peak of 1561 points (2021-10-21) in the cycle, and up 129.55% from the lowest point of 511 points on March 1, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present)

In terms of production area, affected by the epidemic situation and safety production reduction, most coal mines now provide long-term coal, and the market supply is still tight. The supply decreased, and the market trading atmosphere was fair. However, due to the impact of public health events, the export of coal has been affected, and the price has fluctuated.

In terms of downstream ports, traders’ quotations are relatively firm, but they are mainly wait-and-see. In addition, during the overhaul of Datong Qinhuangdao Railway, the traders maintained a high price mentality.

Macro: The National Bureau of Statistics announced on the 27th that from January to August 2022, industrial enterprises above designated size will achieve operating revenue of 87.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.4% year on year. The business income of mining owners was 4458.15 billion yuan, up 31.6% year on year. Among them, the main business income of coal mining and washing industry was 265.359 billion yuan, up 45.1% year on year; The oil and gas exploitation industry was 840.46 billion yuan, up 46.6% year on year; The ferrous metal mining and beneficiation industry was 334.38 billion yuan, down 19.0% year on year; The nonferrous metal mining and dressing industry was 222.31 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 17.4%; The non-metallic mining and dressing industry was 272.08 billion yuan, up 4.7% year on year; Other mining industries were 1.31 billion yuan, up 54.1% year on year..

Analysts from the business community believe that: the production of steam coal in the origin area is affected by the safety inspection and epidemic situation, the coal output has declined, and the coal supply is tight. In terms of downstream ports, most of them are strong. And it is less likely that the winter coal reserve will fall soon. However, considering the impact of superimposed policies, it is expected that steam coal prices will mainly fluctuate, depending on the downstream market demand.

According to the data monitored by the business community, the average ex factory tax inclusive price of light potassium carbonate in Shanxi at the beginning of the week was 9275.00 yuan/ton, and the average ex factory tax inclusive price of light potassium carbonate in Shanxi at the weekend was 9300.00 yuan/ton, down 0.80%, and the current price rose 17.35% year on year.

Potassium carbonate

The price of potassium carbonate fell this week. It can be seen from the above figure that the potassium carbonate market has been declining in recent one month, and the market continued to decline slightly this week. Recently, the domestic potassium chloride market price fluctuated and consolidated, and the supply of imported potassium was sufficient, most of which were concentrated in the hands of large traders. The devices of domestic manufacturers are under normal operation and are being shipped in succession. The downstream maintained poor demand, the market transaction was light, and the potassium carbonate market fell in shock. According to the statistics of the business agency, the quotation range of domestic industrial grade potassium carbonate mainstream factory this week is about 9100-9300 yuan/ton (the quotation is for reference only), which varies according to the procurement situation.

Recently, the domestic market price of imported potassium chloride is stable. Recently, the supply of imported potassium chloride is relatively sufficient, and the port still has new supply of goods in succession. The spot market of potassium chloride in China was generally traded, and the price of potassium chloride fell slightly. It is expected that the potassium chloride market will consolidate at a low level in the future.

In the near future, the domestic potash fertilizer market as a whole has no great positive support, and the cost support is poor. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will fall mainly in the short term, while the long-term market still needs to wait and see.