According to data monitored by the Business Society, as of August 14th, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 4700 yuan/ton. This week, the DMF price rose narrowly, rising by 0.53% in one week. Currently, the mainstream price is around 4700 yuan/ton.

This week, the overall DMF market saw a narrow upward trend, with prices increasing by 0.53% compared to the same period last week. Currently, the mainstream price range is 4700.00 yuan/ton, and the downstream procurement atmosphere is average. The upstream cost support is insufficient, and shipments are slow. Manufacturers are giving up profits and taking orders, resulting in high inventory levels.

Chemical Index: On August 13th, the chemical index stood at 874 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 37.57% from the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 46.15% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Business Society DMF analysts believe that in the short term, the DMF market will operate steadily with a stronger trend.

Price trend

The recent trend of the domestic PA66 market tends to be sideways. According to data monitoring from Business Society, the mixed benchmark price of PA66 in China was 18333.33 yuan/ton on August 14th, with a+0.73% increase or decrease compared to the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

The recent market trend of PA66 has continued to be sideways, and overall, the spot prices of various brands are mainly organized. In terms of supply, the overall load of the domestic PA66 industry is currently maintained at around 65%, and it operated horizontally last week compared to the previous period. The changes in the production line situation of the enterprise are limited, and the on-site supply of goods is still relatively sufficient. The supply side’s support for spot goods is average. Poor digestion in terms of inventory, low enthusiasm for stocking by terminal enterprises, and cautious pricing by suppliers. On the upstream side, the domestic market for hexamethylene diamine is relatively weak. In terms of adipic acid market, the trend was sideways after rising, with raw materials such as pure benzene and cyclohexanone showing a strong trend. The promotion of PA66 spot prices on the cost side is relatively strong. The demand for PA66 is weak, with terminal enterprises mainly relying on goods to maintain production, and buyers generally resist high priced sources of goods. It is expected that PA66 may continue its weak consolidation in the short term.

Future Market Forecast

Recently, the spot price of PA66 has seen a sideways trend. The market pattern of raw material prices continued in the early stage, with general support for the cost side of PA66. The load of PA66 enterprise remains unchanged, and there is no significant improvement in supply support. The demand side takes goods to maintain production, and it is expected that PA66 may maintain horizontal consolidation in the short term.

This week, domestic Shandong propane continued to rise, exceeding 5000 yuan/ton. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average price of propane in Shandong on August 7th was 4818 yuan/ton, and on August 11th it was 5363 yuan/ton. The weekly increase was 11.31%, a decrease of 4.37% compared to the same period last year.

As of August 11th, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

Region/ August 11th

East China region/ 3850-4000 yuan/ton

North China region/ 4000-4150 yuan/ton

Shandong region/ 4050-4150 yuan/ton

Northeast region/ 3850-3950 yuan/ton

This week (8.7-8.11), the Shandong propane market rose strongly, with multiple broad increases of 150-200 yuan/ton. Due to the limited supply of goods in northern ports and the maintenance of some enterprise installations, the supply in the region has tightened. The Shandong market has led the rise, while downstream buyers have entered the market. Upstream shipments are smooth, inventory remains low, and low supply and high demand support the continuous rise in propane prices.

Saudi Aramco’s CP was introduced in August 2023, with propane at $470 per ton, an increase of $70 per ton compared to the previous month; Butane is $460 per ton, an increase of $85 per ton compared to the previous month.

Overall, the current propane price has risen to a high level, and downstream resistance to high priced sources has increased. With downstream restocking approaching its end in the future, it is expected that the propane market will rise from a low level and stabilize from a high level.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China was 5250 yuan/ton on August 4th. On August 10th, the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China was 5250 yuan/ton, and the price of chlorinated paraffin remained stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of chlorinated paraffin remained stable this week. This week, the prices of raw materials, liquid chlorine and liquid wax, have increased, providing positive cost support. Downstream procurement is cautious, with a focus on just needs. Chlorinated paraffin manufacturers have a stable price mentality, and market transactions are relatively low. But as the raw materials gradually strengthen, on-site transactions begin to increase. As of August 10th, the factory quotation for chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui region is about 5600 yuan/ton, while the factory quotation for chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong region is about 4800-5150 yuan/ton, which is a national standard.

In terms of raw material liquid wax, the liquid wax remained stable after rising at the beginning of the week, and the liquid wax fluctuated with the crude oil market. In terms of raw material liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine has increased this week, with good market transactions and stable shipments from manufacturers. Maintenance of some manufacturers’ devices resulted in reduced supply.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Chlorinated paraffin analysts from Business Society believe that the recent increase in raw material prices has strengthened cost support. Downstream demand is stable, and with the strengthening of the cost side, the trading atmosphere in the chlorinated paraffin market has improved. It is expected that the price of chlorinated paraffin will continue to rise steadily in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from July 28 to August 4, 2022, the ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China increased significantly, from 6400 yuan/ton last week to 6933.33 yuan/ton this week, an increase of 8.33%.

In terms of crude oil, overnight crude oil futures jumped sharply on Thursday. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $81.55 per barrel, an increase of $2.06 or 2.6%. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $85.14 per barrel, an increase of $1.94 or 2.3%. On August 4th, the domestic SC crude oil market rose with the main contract settling at 622.1 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 1.55%. There are reports that Saudi Arabia and Russia will extend their independent production reduction period until September, or even longer, as supply tightening is expected to intensify.

The factory price of Sinopec pure benzene has increased by a total of 400 yuan/ton during this cycle, with a current implementation of 7600 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7750 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 7600 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 7733 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7750 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 7600 yuan/ton.

This week, the price of pure benzene has slightly increased. As of July 31st, the price of pure benzene was 7287 yuan/ton. On Friday (August 4th), the price of pure benzene was 7670 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.08% compared to last week and a decrease of 9.94 compared to the same period last year.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has seen a positive trend in recent times. After ten consecutive weeks of decline, it has continued to rise for five consecutive weeks.

From the perspective of the industrial chain, the trend of crude oil this week has been volatile, with pure benzene continuing to rise in the external market. Pure benzene in East China continues to rise, and the overall market supply is currently tight. Sinopec has raised the factory price of pure benzene twice in a row, with a cumulative increase of 400 yuan/ton. Supported by multiple positive factors, the price of pure benzene continues to rise, and the price of hydrogenated benzene has also risen within the week, with an increase of 350 to 400 yuan/ton.

Driven by the pure benzene market, the hydrogenation benzene market continued to rise this week. Currently, the factory price in Hebei has risen to 7650-7850 yuan/ton, and the market price in East China has risen to 7850-7900 yuan. On the supply side, with the increase in market prices, the operating rate of hydrogenation benzene enterprises has increased this week, and currently, on-site supply is still acceptable. There has been little change in demand. In terms of raw materials, the auction price of crude benzene has risen again this week, and the profitability of hydrogenation benzene enterprises remains poor, resulting in significant cost pressure for enterprises. In the future, there has been no significant change in supply and demand, and the trend of hydrogenated benzene will still follow the fluctuations of the pure benzene market. There is some resistance in the downstream of the high price of pure benzene, but the overall supply of pure benzene is tight, which has a certain boost to the market. It is expected that the market for pure benzene and hydrogenated benzene will experience high volatility in the short term.

This week (7.31-8.7), the market for chloroform slightly declined. According to data from Business Society, as of August 7th, the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2012 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.42% from last Monday’s 2062 yuan/ton. The price of raw material methanol continues to rise, and the cost support for trichloromethane has strengthened compared to the previous period; Some devices have restarted operation, and the supply of trichloromethane has slightly increased; In addition, downstream demand is weak, and the overall industry chain is mainly bearish, resulting in a decrease in the price of chloroform.

This week (7.31-8.7), some devices have slightly increased after restarting, and in the later stage, Jiuhong’s new devices will produce products, and the pressure on the supply side of chloroform is expected to increase again.

This week (7.31-8.7), the price of raw material methanol slightly increased, and the cost center of trichloromethane increased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 7th, the spot price of methanol was 2330 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.19% from last Monday’s 2280 yuan/ton.

Recently, the downstream refrigerant R22 is in the traditional off-season, and some enterprises have maintained stable parking and maintenance prices, resulting in weak demand for chloroform. In addition, the total production quota of R22 has been reduced by 19% to 181800 tons in 2023, and overall support for chloroform demand has weakened in the medium to long term.

According to methane chloride data analysts from Business Society, the overall weak demand for trichloromethane at the end of the peak season, coupled with the expected increase in supply side pressure in the later period, although there is support for higher methanol prices on the cost side, overall, it is expected that the trichloromethane market will be weak and narrow in the short term.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of August 4, the average price quoted by Epichlorohydrin enterprises was 8125.00 yuan/ton, up 1.88% from Monday.

The market of Epichlorohydrin rose mainly this week. In the near future, the price of raw propylene is weak, the price of raw glycerin is mainly stable, and the cost side has little impact. The capacity utilization rate of Epichlorohydrin and the main downstream epoxy resin industry has increased slightly. Enterprises mainly deliver more contracts and early orders, and the market spot supply is tight, which supports the price of Epichlorohydrin to rise. With the price increase and the impact of the expected news of supply increment, the enthusiasm of downstream inquiries has decreased, Focus on following up on just the right amount.

Upstream propylene, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference price for propylene on August 3 was 6638.25, a decrease of 1.12% compared to August 1 (6713.25).

Downstream epoxy resin, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, on August 3rd, the reference price of epoxy resin was 14200.00, which is the same as August 1st.

According to the Epichlorohydrin analysts of the business community, the manufacturers are currently under no pressure to ship, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement is moderate. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market will be deadlocked in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the supply side changes.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic NMP market was reorganized and operated in July, with a downward shift in focus. At the beginning of July, the average price of electronic grade NMP was 17333 yuan/ton. As of July 31st, the average price was 17000 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 1.92%.

2、 Analysis and Review

As of July 31st, the mainstream prices of NMP bulk water in different regions in China are as follows:

Region/ July 31st

East China/ 15500-16000 yuan/ton

Central China/ 15000-16000 yuan/ton

Southwest region/ 15000-16000 yuan/ton

In July, the domestic NMP market showed significant stability and slight fluctuations, lacking substantial positive factors to support the market. Enterprise quotations were on the market, with downstream demand being the main force. The increase in construction work did not change much, resulting in limited demand growth and limited support for NMP. The NMP of raw materials fluctuated downward, and cost support further weakened.

In July, the domestic BDO market saw a unilateral decline, with a slight rebound at the end of the month. From July 1st to 27th, the average price of domestic BDO decreased from 11421 yuan/ton to 10942 yuan/ton, with a 4.19% decrease in price during the cycle.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society NMP analysts believe that the current downstream construction of NMP remains low, and under demand constraints, it is expected that in the short term, NMP prices will be adjusted and operated at a low level in the future.

The market of Polybutadiene rose slightly this week (7.24-7.31). According to the commodity market analysis system of the business agency, as of July 31, the price of Polybutadiene in East China was 10940 yuan/ton, up 1.58% from 10770 yuan/ton last Monday. The price of raw butadiene continues to rise, and the cost of Polybutadiene is supported; Recently, the supply price of Polybutadiene has been raised by 200 yuan/ton, and the offer of merchants has risen slightly.

This week (7.24-7.31), the Polybutadiene plant basically operated normally, and Polybutadiene supply was loose as a whole.

The price of raw butadiene continued to rebound this week (7.24-7.31), and the cost focus of Polybutadiene rebounded. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of July 31st, the price of butadiene was 7201 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.34% from last Monday’s 6968 yuan/ton.

The natural rubber market slightly increased this week (7.24-7.31). According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of July 31st, the price of natural rubber was 12080 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.94% from last Monday’s 11850 yuan/ton.

Recently, the tire operating rate has fluctuated slightly, with a slight increase in half steel tire operating compared to the previous period, and a slight decrease in all steel tire operating compared to the previous period. The demand for rubber rigid support is stable. It is understood that as of late July 2023, the operating load of rubber tire enterprises in Shandong Province for all steel tires is 6.3%, and for half steel tires, it is around 7.2%.

Future market forecast: analysts from the business community believe that the high raw material price of Polybutadiene is supported by its cost. In the second half of the month, many devices were restarted, and the pressure on the supply side of Polybutadiene increased slightly; The downstream commencement fluctuates slightly, which is stable for Polybutadiene support; To sum up, it is expected that Polybutadiene will consolidate after rising in the short term. In the medium and long term, if the cost and demand continue to support, Polybutadiene may have the opportunity to continue to rise.

Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price of sulfur in East China continued to decline this week. On July 28, the price of sulfur was 846.67 yuan/ton, and on July 22, the price of sulfur was 876.67 yuan/ton, down 3.42%, up 18.69% from the beginning of the month.

The sulfur market in East China is weak, mainly due to the poor shipment of some refineries and the continuous reduction of sulfur prices. But overall, the sulfur market is strong. Although the on-site units operate normally, the supply of goods is stable, the downstream market has slightly improved, the terminal industry has started to increase, and the market orders have increased. The industry is optimistic about the future market. In addition to East China, there are also some sulfur manufacturers in some regions whose quotations have increased. At present, the market is cautious, The manufacturer adjusts the quotation based on their own shipment situation. As of the 28th, the mainstream price of solid sulfur in refineries in Shandong region is around 810-930 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of liquid sulfur is between 800-880 yuan/ton.

Downstream market of the industrial chain

The downstream sulfuric acid price has slightly increased. On July 28th, the average domestic sulfuric acid price was 160.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.26% compared to the price of 152.00 yuan/ton on July 22nd. The on-site sulfuric acid plant is operating normally, the supply of goods is stable, downstream demand has improved, enterprise shipments have increased, and the operator’s attitude is wait-and-see, resulting in a slight increase in sulfuric acid prices.

The market for monoammonium phosphate is relatively strong. On July 28th, the average market price for 55% powdered monoammonium was 2616.67 yuan/ton. On July 22nd, the average market price for 55% powdered monoammonium was 2566.67 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.95%. Downstream inquiries have increased, and some manufacturers have smooth shipments with strong bullish intentions. The quotation of ammonium nitrate manufacturers has been raised, and the market may continue to rise in the future.

Future Market Forecast

Business Society sulfur analysts believe that the sulfur enterprise’s equipment is operating normally, the manufacturer’s inventory is maintaining rationality, the end industry has good trading, the purchasing enthusiasm has increased, and the market inquiry atmosphere has increased. In the future, fertilizer will be used in the autumn, and the demand side is bullish. The operator’s mentality is positive, and it is expected that the sulfur market may be slightly stronger. In the future, specific attention will be paid to the downstream follow-up situation.