1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of aniline has slightly decreased this week. On November 27th, the market price of aniline was 12750 yuan/ton, and on December 1st, the price was 12015 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.76% from last week.

2、 Analysis and Review

Pure benzene: Yesterday, pure benzene had a slight upward trend in negotiations, but spot resource transactions were weak, and there was insufficient buying gas on the market. Transactions were mainly in the distant months. Shandong refineries have weak willingness to hold goods and have significantly lowered prices to promote shipments. After the price drop, the market’s buying sentiment improved, and a large number of low-priced goods were purchased to deliver orders within the week, resulting in better transactions. In late December, pure benzene in the night market was discussed to have risen to around 7050 yuan/ton, but crude oil initially rose and then fell before finally closing down. It is expected that pure benzene in East China will fluctuate and consolidate in the morning. On Friday (December 1st), the price of pure benzene was 7020 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.29% from last week and an increase of 7.45% from the same period last year.

Nitric acid: The domestic price of nitric acid has slightly increased this week. On November 27th, the price was 2133 yuan/ton, and on December 1st, it was 2235 yuan/ton. The price increased by 6.42% compared to last week and decreased by 8.13% compared to the same period last year.

3、 Future expectations

The aniline market has a strong bearish atmosphere, with lower willingness to reserve downstream positions and a focus on essential purchases. It is expected that aniline will steadily decline.

Price trend

In November, the domestic POM market stopped falling and rebounded, with a narrow increase in spot prices. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of November 30th, the mixed price of domestic POM was 13000 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of 1.36% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

According to the analysis system chart of the commodity market in Shengyishe, the price of formaldehyde in the Shandong region slightly declined in November. The raw material methanol market is fluctuating and consolidating, with average cost support. Downstream board factories continue to have weak demand due to environmental impact. Formaldehyde manufacturers are operating normally, and production enterprises are under great pressure to ship. The market is declining, which provides poor support for POM.

In terms of supply:

After the overall operating rate of domestic POM enterprises fell in November, it rebounded. At the beginning of the month, the industry’s device load was at a high level of over 80%, and the range fell below 77% before rebounding. At the end of the month, the overall load returned to 81%. Due to the high supply pressure at the beginning, the decline in spot prices was concentrated in the first ten days. Subsequently, after continuous digestion of market supply, most enterprise inventories returned to low levels, and the supply side’s support for POM spot goods has been restored. However, it is feared that inventory will accumulate in the future.

In terms of demand:

In November, the production level of downstream POM enterprises in China was average, with enterprises mainly digesting inventory. On exchange trading was weak, and there was no significant increase in POM consumption. After the price stopped falling and rebounded, the operators followed up with more caution, and their resistance to high priced goods returned. Overall, the demand side’s support for POM spot prices is average.

Future Market Forecast

The POM market trend in November stopped falling and rebounded. After the domestic polymerization plant’s operating rate was lowered, it returned, and the overall supply of goods on site was abundant, partially easing the supply pressure. At present, manufacturers have stabilized the confidence of traders through market support operations, and some merchants tend to be reluctant to sell their goods. On the demand side, terminal enterprises operate at a low level, with cautious purchasing operations and resistance to high priced sources, resulting in average on-site trading. At the end of the month, under the containment of weak costs, lagging demand, and high supply, business owners have weak confidence in the future. It is expected that the POM market may experience limited growth in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference average price of 85% hot process phosphoric acid in China was 7200 yuan/ton on November 1st. On November 29th, the reference average price of 85% hot process phosphoric acid in China was 7000 yuan/ton. This month, the domestic price of hot process phosphoric acid decreased by 2.78%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6950 yuan/ton on November 1st, and 6833 yuan/ton on November 29th. This month, the domestic wet process phosphoric acid price has dropped by 1.68%.

2、 Market analysis

The price of phosphoric acid in the market has fluctuated and fallen this month. In early November, the market price of hot process phosphoric acid adjusted narrowly, while the price of wet process phosphoric acid remained stable. The prices of raw phosphorus ore and yellow phosphorus have risen, leading to increased cost support. The operating rate of phosphoric acid enterprises is stable, there is a large amount of market inventory, and downstream demand is not performing well. The industry is mainly wait-and-see. In mid to late November, the prices of hot process phosphoric acid and wet process phosphoric acid fluctuated and fell. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has been lowered, and the cost support for phosphoric acid is insufficient. Downstream on-demand procurement results in fewer new orders in the market and poor on-site trading. As of November 29th, the factory price of 85 industrial grade thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan region is around 7000 yuan/ton, the factory price of 85 industrial grade thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6500-7150 yuan/ton, and the factory price of 85 industrial grade thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan region is around 7000 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85 wet process phosphoric acid is around 6150-7550 yuan/ton.

Market for raw material yellow phosphorus. In November, the price of yellow phosphorus first rose and then fell, and overall, the market price of yellow phosphorus slightly decreased. In early November, due to the impact of power rationing policies in Yunnan, yellow phosphorus enterprises in Yunnan suspended their quotations. The yellow phosphorus market in Sichuan region is trending upwards, with strong reluctance from enterprises to sell and rising prices. In the middle of the month, the overall trading situation of yellow phosphorus in the market was light, downstream procurement was cautious, and there was a wait-and-see trend. The acceptance of high priced yellow phosphorus was poor, and the market quotation for yellow phosphorus was loose, resulting in a price reduction. In the latter half of the year, the price of yellow phosphorus in the market continued to decrease slightly, with weak downstream market demand and less active procurement, with a focus on essential needs. Be cautious and observe, as the market on both supply and demand sides is relatively stagnant, with companies mainly focusing on raising prices. As of now, the market quotation in Sichuan region is mostly around 25600 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

Market for raw material phosphate rock. This month, the overall domestic phosphate ore market has shown a steady upward trend, with the focus of the phosphate ore market constantly moving towards the high-end. Many domestic mining enterprises, including those in Guizhou, Sichuan, and Guangxi, have raised the prices of mid to high-end grade phosphate rock, with a cumulative increase of about 50-90 yuan/ton for 30% grade phosphate rock within the month. The supply of low-priced goods in phosphate ore yards is gradually decreasing, and the price difference between high and low prices is narrowing. As of November 29th, the domestic 30% grade phosphate ore market price is referenced around 1000-1100 yuan/ton, and the high-end price is referenced around 1150 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s phosphoric acid analyst believes that the recent trend of the phosphoric acid market is mainly downward. The market for raw material yellow phosphorus is weakening, with insufficient cost support. Downstream demand is weak, with a focus on purchasing essential goods and an increased mentality of buying up rather than falling. It is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market prices will be mainly weak.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring of commodity data, the price of yellow phosphorus rose first and then fell in November, and overall, the market price of yellow phosphorus has slightly decreased. On November 1st, the average price of yellow phosphorus was 25960 yuan/ton, and on November 28th, the average price was 25729.33 yuan/ton. The monthly price has decreased by 0.89%.

2、 Market analysis

In November, the price of yellow phosphorus first rose and then fell, and overall, the market price of yellow phosphorus slightly decreased. In early November, due to the impact of power rationing policies in Yunnan, yellow phosphorus enterprises in Yunnan suspended their quotations. The yellow phosphorus market in Sichuan region is trending upwards, with strong reluctance from enterprises to sell and rising prices. In the middle of the month, the overall trading situation of yellow phosphorus in the market was light, downstream procurement was cautious, and there was a wait-and-see trend. The acceptance of high priced yellow phosphorus was poor, and the market quotation for yellow phosphorus was loose, resulting in a price reduction. In the latter half of the year, the price of yellow phosphorus in the market continued to decrease slightly, with weak downstream market demand and less active procurement, with a focus on essential needs. Be cautious and observe, as the market on both supply and demand sides is relatively stagnant, and companies are mainly focusing on raising prices. As of now, the market quotation in Sichuan region is mostly around 25600 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

In terms of phosphate ore, according to data monitoring by Business Society, as of November 28, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China was around 1054 yuan/ton. Compared with November 1, 2023 (reference price of phosphate ore is 1024 yuan/ton), the price increased by 30 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.93%. At present, the overall trading atmosphere of phosphate ore is still good, and the mentality of the industry is good. The support for the phosphate ore market from both supply and demand sides is still good. The phosphate ore data analyst of Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphate ore market will mainly operate at high levels, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

In terms of coke, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the market price of coke increased in November 2023. The average price of coke on November 1 was 2125 yuan/ton, and on November 28 it was 2226.67 yuan/ton. The monthly price increased by 4.78%. In November, the atmosphere in the coke market was relatively strong, and the supply side saw an increase in coking coal prices, leading to a stronger mentality among coke companies. In terms of demand, as the market atmosphere has strengthened recently, downstream trade has actively entered the market for inquiries, and some inventory has flowed into the trading market. Under the boost of winter storage demand from steel mills, enterprises are actively replenishing their inventory. Overall, the atmosphere in the coke market is relatively strong. Under the tight supply boost, it is expected that the market will continue to operate strongly in the short term.

In terms of phosphoric acid, according to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the reference price of phosphoric acid on November 1st was 7200 yuan/ton, and the average price on November 28th was 7020 yuan/ton. The price decreased by 2.5% during the month. This month, the price of phosphoric acid in the market fluctuated downward, and the market trend of phosphoric acid weakened. The raw material yellow phosphorus market is average, and the cost support for phosphoric acid is insufficient. Coupled with weak downstream demand, the industry holds a bearish sentiment. It is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market prices will be mainly weak and consolidating.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The yellow phosphorus analyst from the Chemical Branch of Business Society believes that the price of yellow phosphorus rose first and then fell in November. At present, the market trading situation is light, market prices are relatively flexible, low-end prices are difficult to find, and high-end prices are difficult to trade. Manufacturers tend to raise prices, while downstream suppliers lower prices for purchases. The upstream and downstream markets are deadlocked in trading, and businesses are mostly wait-and-see. Overall, it is expected that the market price of yellow phosphorus will remain stable and operate in the short term, with actual transactions being discussed on a single basis.

Market analysis for this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of the 27th, the average price of magnesium ingots in the domestic market was 20900 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.16% compared to the beginning of the month. This week, the price of magnesium ingots showed a trend of first falling and then rising. At the beginning of the week, the market quotation was slightly lowered. In the middle of the week, as downstream procurement and intermediary replenishment inquiries increased, the market quotation increased accordingly. The price was concentrated between 20700-20800 yuan/ton, and market transactions slowed down significantly. Both supply and demand sides operated cautiously, making it difficult to find low-priced goods.

In terms of supply and demand

The current supply-demand contradiction in the magnesium market still exists, and there are many news about the resumption of production in the main production areas in the market. Both the supply and demand sides are more cautious in buying and selling. Magnesium factories tend to offer stable prices, while downstream users actively seek low-priced sources. The acceptance of high prices is limited, and the supply and demand sides are in a stalemate.

In terms of raw materials

This week, the spot market for ferrosilicon has been mainly downgraded, with market prices in Ningxia around 6700-6800 yuan/ton and an average market price of 6728.57 yuan/ton. Affected by the continuous decline in futures trading, the confidence in the ferrosilicon market is insufficient, and there is no significant increase in downstream demand. It is expected that ferrosilicon will operate weakly and steadily in the short term. In terms of coal, the price of blue charcoal remains stable, and the price of small materials of Shenmu blue charcoal is around 1180-1280 yuan/ton.

Future Market Forecast

The phenomenon of oversupply in the current magnesium ingot market still exists, and downstream actively seek low-priced sources of goods. However, considering that magnesium prices are gradually approaching the cost line, the willingness of magnesium factories to maintain prices has increased. It is expected that the domestic magnesium ingot market will operate steadily and steadily in the short term.

Domestic price trend:

From the trend chart of para xylene, it can be seen that the price trend of para xylene has remained stable this week. As of the weekend, the domestic ex factory price of para xylene was 8700 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price of 8700 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 1.16%.

The domestic supply of xylene is relatively normal, with a domestic PX operating rate of over 70%. However, there is little change in spot supply during the maintenance of some xylene units. This week, international crude oil prices have risen, and PX external prices have been mainly affected by this. As of the 23rd, the closing prices in the Asian region are 984-986 yuan/ton FOB Korea and 1009-1011 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX plants in Asia has been mainly fluctuating. Overall, the operating rate of xylene plants in the Asian region is around 70%. The supply of PX goods in the Asian region has not changed much, and the domestic xylene market price trend is temporarily stable.

Recently, international crude oil prices have risen. As of the 23rd, the US WTI crude oil futures market is closed, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contracts is 81.25 yuan/barrel. At the beginning of the week, crude oil prices surged mainly due to increased expectations of OPEC+, an oil producing country, reducing production at Sunday’s meeting. The news was positive for the crude oil market, and oil prices surged at the beginning of the week. On the other hand, poor economic data, coupled with bearish factors such as increased US crude oil inventories, have jointly affected the crude oil market. Overall, crude oil prices rose sharply at the beginning of the week and then slightly declined, while the domestic xylene market price trend is temporarily stable.

The domestic PTA spot market trend has declined, with an average price of 5825 yuan/ton in the East China market as of the weekend, a 3.33% decrease from the beginning of the week price of 6025 yuan/ton. From the recent changes in PTA’s own equipment, there have been many device restarts, and the industry’s operating rate has risen to over 80%. The downstream polyester production load is above 87%, and cost support is weakening. The polyester filament market is cautious and cautious, with the consumption of early raw material stocking as the main focus, resulting in a stalemate in transaction focus. The trading atmosphere in the short fiber market is light, with many traders offering discounts on prices, and customers from yarn factories have limited orders and low purchasing willingness. The operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving has moderately decreased to around 75%, coupled with low profits from raw fabrics, it is expected that a small amount of raw materials will be purchased at a low price by the end of the month. The unfavorable downstream market is bearish for the xylene market, and the PX market trend is temporarily stable.

Chen Ling, an analyst at Business Society PX, believes that there is not much change in domestic PX supply. The upstream crude oil market is a long short game, and overall, crude oil prices are mainly fluctuating in the range. In the early stages of downstream PTA maintenance equipment, new equipment is being restarted and put into operation. With the decrease in downstream polyester production load, the PTA market is under pressure, and it is expected that the terminal’s sustained replenishment may be difficult to sustain. It is expected that the market price of xylene may slightly decline in the later stage.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, from November 14th to 21st, the average market price of cyclohexanone in China increased from 9325 yuan/ton to 9387 yuan/ton, with a period increase of 0.67%. The price decreased by 1.44% month on month and 1.53% year-on-year. The raw material pure benzene is operating in a volatile manner, with relatively stable cost support. Some downstream enterprises of caprolactam have reduced production, and the product market has increased, driving the cyclohexanone market. Other downstream demand is average, and the market growth of cyclohexanone is hindered by the obstruction of high price shipments in the market.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: Crude oil futures have fluctuated higher, combined with some contract deliveries in the middle of the month, resulting in a more positive buying atmosphere in the market. East China ports have low inventory, and holders are reluctant to sell, driving up the pure benzene market as a whole. In the cost composition of the traditional cyclohexanone process route, pure benzene accounts for 53%. The market trend of pure benzene directly affects the price of cyclohexanone, and the short-term cost of cyclohexanone is affected by bearish factors.

On the supply side, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic production capacity of cyclohexanone is about 6.55 million tons, and the current operating load is around 60%, which is at a relatively low level. The main production enterprises have limited product supply due to device maintenance. The weekly average operating load of cyclohexanone is 64.33%, which is+0.22% higher than last week. The weekly production is 89400 tons,+0800 tons compared to last week.

On the demand side, cyclohexanone units are mainly equipped with downstream caprolactam production, and caprolactam is one of the main downstream sources of cyclohexanone. The market for caprolactam has risen. The price of raw material pure benzene has increased, which is beneficial for cost support. Some enterprises have reduced the load of caprolactam units and reduced market supply. The demand for cyclohexanone is temporarily positive.

In the future market forecast, the cost demand of Juncun is slightly positive, and cyclohexanone analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic cyclohexanone market is expected to break through in the short term.

Market analysis for this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of the 17th, the average price of domestic magnesium ingot market was 20866.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.63% compared to the beginning of the month. This week, the price of magnesium ingots showed a first decline and then a stable operation. At the beginning of the week, some factories lowered prices to ship due to weak downstream demand and the fermenting news of factory resumption in the Fugu region; In the later part of the week, magnesium prices approached the cost line and factory quotations began to stabilize.

In terms of supply and demand

In terms of supply, there was news of a magnesium factory resuming production at the beginning of the week. It is understood that a Fugu magnesium ingot manufacturer with a daily output of 80 tons has officially started production, and the price of magnesium ingots is constantly decreasing. Due to approaching the cost line, profit margins continue to compress, and the possibility of manufacturers continuing to lower prices decreases. The downstream demand clock has not shown a significant improvement, and the supply and demand pattern is difficult to make significant changes. The magnesium ingot market continues to be under pressure.

In terms of raw materials

This week, the spot market for ferrosilicon is mainly operating steadily, with quotes in the Ningxia region around 6750-6900 yuan/ton, with an average market price of 6875 yuan/ton. The national orchid charcoal market is temporarily stable in operation, and coal prices continue to rise, supporting the cost of orchid charcoal enterprises. Some companies’ shipment situation has improved compared to the previous period, and there has been a small release of inventory. Affected by this, some companies have raised the price of coke by 30 yuan/ton, and the short-term price of blue charcoal has been firm.

Future Market Forecast

The main production area of magnesium ingots is about to resume production, and the output will be further released. However, the demand side is mainly based on demand procurement, and more cautious follow-up is needed. The contradiction between supply and demand in the magnesium market continues. However, considering that magnesium prices have recently approached the cost line and manufacturers have limited room for price concessions, it is expected that the magnesium market will mainly operate in a weak and stable manner in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong has recently fluctuated and fallen. At the beginning of the week, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 5125.00 yuan/ton, and on the weekend, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 5100.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.49%, a month on month decrease of 3.32%, and a year-on-year decrease of 6.13%.

Upstream methanol situation: In terms of supply, global coal supply is stable, domestic imports have increased, and the increase in domestic demand is not enough to support the operation of coal prices at high levels; In terms of demand, the overall pressure on inventory in power plants is relatively low. Currently, the terminal mainly relies on long-term replenishment and replenishment according to demand. The demand for coal in the market is relatively flat, and the overall sentiment is biased towards wait-and-see. The cost side of methanol is influenced by bearish factors. Downstream demand is expected to increase, but fundamental contradictions are still not significant. The domestic methanol market is mainly fluctuating and consolidating.

Recently, the methanol market has been fluctuating and consolidating, with average cost support. Polyformaldehyde manufacturers are shipping normally, and polyformaldehyde analysts from Business Society predict that prices may decline slightly.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the recent (11.1-11.13) mixed xylene market has significantly declined. On November 13th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 7250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.09% from 7330 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the highest point in the cycle was 7350 yuan/ton.

Since then, the arbitrage space between Asia and the United States has narrowed, and the external market price of xylene has decreased

Since the fourth quarter, the demand for mixed blending in North America has continued to decline, the Asia US interest rate gap has severely shrunk, and the price of toluene in Asia has decreased. As of November 13th, the price of isomeric grade xylene in Asia was between $864 and $865 per ton.

There is not much pressure on the supply side of xylene due to a decrease in port inventory

The inventory of mixed xylene remains low, and the supply of goods is still relatively tight, providing support for the mixed xylene market. It is understood that as of November 9th, the total inventory of xylene in East and South China was 19500 tons, a decrease from 24000 tons at the beginning of the month.

Since November, international crude oil prices have fluctuated at a low level, and xylene cost support has weakened

Since November, the overall international crude oil price has declined, weakening the cost support for toluene. As of November 13th, the WTI12 contract closed at $78.51 per barrel; The Brent 01 contract closed at $82.71 per barrel.

PX starts to stabilize xylene and obtain just needed support

The domestic supply of xylene is relatively normal, with a domestic PX operating rate of over 70%. However, there has been little change in spot supply during the maintenance of some xylene units. Recently, the international crude oil price trend has declined, and PX external prices have been affected by this. As of the 9th, the closing prices in Asia were 967-969 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 992-994 dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX devices in Asia has been mainly fluctuating. Overall, the operating rate of xylene devices in the Asian region is around 70%. The supply of PX goods in the Asian region has not changed much, and the domestic xylene market price trend is temporarily stable.

Weak demand for phthalic anhydride and weak support for xylene

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is stable. Currently, the operating rate of phthalic anhydride in China is maintained at over 60%, and the supply of phthalic anhydride goods is relatively sufficient. In addition, the production of naphthalene phthalic anhydride goods is normal, and the price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has dropped, which has correspondingly impacted the neighboring phthalic anhydride market. Recently, downstream procurement has not been active, and some phthalic anhydride factories have lowered their factory prices, resulting in a sluggish market situation for phthalic anhydride.

Domestic mixed blending demand is gradually entering the off-season and xylene demand support is weakening

Since the fourth quarter, the domestic mixed blending market has entered a low season, and downstream inquiries have been light. The demand for toluene mixed blending continues to weaken. As of November 10th, the gasoline production of Shandong Independent Refinery decreased by 96600 tons compared to mid October, while diesel production decreased by 181000 tons.

Future forecast: Currently, international crude oil prices have been consolidating at a low level in the near future, and the cost of xylene is at a low level; The demand in downstream mixing and other industries continues to weaken, but the supply of xylene is still relatively tight, and it is expected that the xylene market will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.