According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from May 19th to 23rd, the average price of BDO in China increased from 7950 yuan/ton to 8078 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.62% during the period, a month on month increase of 1.87%, and a year-on-year decrease of 10.52%. The domestic BDO market is stable with a narrow upward trend. Partial device maintenance, reduced industry capacity utilization, and increased supply side support. Manufacturers actively support the market by implementing a policy of reducing sales. Downstream follow-up on demand, trading on the high end of spot small orders, and narrow upward exploration of market focus.

On the supply side, following the maintenance of the Xinjiang Xinye plant, the Dongjing Biotechnology plant also underwent a major inspection, resulting in a further decrease in industry capacity utilization and a reduction in the supply of available goods in the market. At the same time, transportation in Xinjiang has been slightly slow in recent times, and the industry has suffered long-term losses. Suppliers have actively adjusted their sales policies in June to support the market. The supply of BDO is affected by favorable factors.
On the cost side, the sudden increase in supply of raw material calcium carbide has become the main factor causing the decline in calcium carbide prices. The domestic methanol market is running weakly. As of 10:00 am on May 23rd, the domestic methanol Taicang price is 2304 yuan/ton. The weak prices of raw materials such as calcium carbide and methanol have been consolidated, and the cost of BDO has been affected by unfavorable factors.
On the demand side, there is no significant change in downstream demand, and multiple industries are under cost pressure, resulting in limited acceptance of high raw material prices. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.
In the future market forecast, some devices will continue to be under maintenance, and the supply side will continue to support downstream demand follow-up. However, under cost pressure, resistance to high raw material prices will suppress the increase in raw material prices. Business Society BDO analysts predict that the domestic BDO market is fluctuating.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market for locally refined petroleum coke has continued to rise this week. As of May 19th, the price of locally refined petroleum coke in the Shandong market was 2275.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.82% from 2212.50 yuan/ton on May 12th.
This week, the overall crude oil market has been on the rise. The United States has increased its oil restrictions on a certain country, as well as the impact of the Israeli Palestinian conflict and the intention of China and the United States to negotiate. The international oil price trend has risen, and with the easing of tariffs between China and the United States, the crude oil market is mainly volatile.
This week, the shipment of petroleum coke from local refineries has been good, downstream procurement is active, and coupled with low inventory of petroleum coke in some refineries, the price of petroleum coke continues to rise. This week, the trading volume of petroleum coke at the port was average, with high port inventory and downstream enterprises maintaining essential procurement.
Recently, the market for calcined coke has remained stable, with limited downstream demand and a consolidation of the calcined coke market.
Market forecast: Currently, the overall supply of petroleum coke market is relatively sufficient, with downstream essential procurement being the main focus. It is expected that petroleum coke will be mainly sorted out in the near future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from May 12th to 16th, the domestic aggregated MDI market rose strongly, with an average price of 15816 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 16550 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 6.64% during the period and a year-on-year decrease of 4.7%. The number of maintenance companies increased during the week, and the speed of filling goods slowed down. The latest tariff policy has been introduced, which is favorable for the bulk commodity market. The trading atmosphere inside the venue has heated up. Low price reluctance to sell, and the price of aggregated MDI tends to rise strongly.
On the supply side, the 1.2 million tons/year MDI plant of Wanhua Ningbo in China began rotating between two sets of plants on March 20th, while other plants were running smoothly. BASF and Huntsman have maintenance plans in May. The 70000 ton/year MDI plant in Tosa, Japan will undergo maintenance and overhaul in early May, with a duration of approximately 40 days; The 130000 tons/year MDI plant will be shut down for maintenance in mid May, with a duration of approximately 40 days. The 200000 ton/year MDI plant in Jinhu, South Korea is scheduled to be shut down for maintenance at the end of May, with a duration of approximately one month.

On the cost side, raw materials such as pure benzene and aniline have experienced varying degrees of increase due to the macro impact of tariff policies. Among them, pure benzene rose by as much as 9.2% this week, while aniline rose by as much as 7.36%.
On the demand side, downstream demand is in urgent need of support, and with favorable export policies, there has been an increase in export inquiries, creating a favorable trading atmosphere.
Future forecast: The supply side of the current aggregated MDI market will continue to be tight, and it is expected that the aggregated MDI market will maintain a strong trend in the short term. We will closely monitor the progress of enterprise maintenance and changes in market supply and demand.

After the May Day holiday, the market price of epoxy propane rebounded slightly. On May 12th, the ex factory price of epoxy propane from Shandong Lihua Yiwei Yuan was 7270 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of May 12th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 7500 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.39% compared to early May.

Price influencing factors:
Raw material side: The increase in the market price of raw material propylene provides some support for the epoxy propane market. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of May 12th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6630.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.91% compared to the beginning of this month (6570.75 yuan/ton).
On the demand side: downstream demand for epoxy propane replenishment after the holiday, the market trading atmosphere is relatively cautious. The price of epichlorohydrin rebounded slightly to the range of 7250-7650 yuan/ton. In addition, due to the impact of tariff policies, downstream terminal markets have limited procurement of raw materials. Overall, the demand is facing limited support from the epoxy propane market, and the market may maintain a strong and volatile trend in the later stage.
Market forecast:
Business Society’s epoxy propane analyst believes that downstream epoxy propane urgently needs replenishment, cautious procurement, cold market trading atmosphere, and insufficient demand support. However, there is some support on the raw material side, and it is expected that the epoxy propane market will maintain a strong and volatile trend in the later stage. More attention should be paid to changes in raw material prices and downstream supply and demand.

Market Overview
After the May Day holiday, the dichloromethane market in Shandong was under pressure and fell. During the holiday, logistics capacity has decreased, and enterprise inventory has accumulated again. After the holiday, the demand side urgently needs to purchase, and market trading has been sluggish. Manufacturers have offered small discounts on shipments, but transactions still show weakness. According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of May 9th, the average price of dichloromethane dispersed water in Shandong Province was 2065 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.95% during the week.
analysis of influencing factors
Supply side: Local enterprises have lowered negative loads to stabilize prices, while overall supply remains relatively loose
Device dynamics: Jinling Chemical Industry in Shandong Province is operating at a reduced load, with an overall operating rate fluctuating around 75% and a relatively stable supply.
Enterprise inventory: After the holiday, inventory has accumulated, and some enterprises’ inventory has risen to medium to high levels, increasing the pressure on enterprise shipments.
Cost side: Differentiation of raw material trends
Methanol: The fundamentals are weak, and the price of methanol has slightly decreased. As of May 8th, the spot price of methanol in Shandong was reported at 2390 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 2.05%, weakening the cost transmission power. Due to the off-season demand, it is expected that there will be significant upward pressure on prices.
Liquid chlorine: The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong has risen strongly, providing strong support for the cost of dichloromethane.
Demand side: primarily focused on essential procurement
Downstream industries such as refrigerants and pharmaceuticals mainly rely on essential procurement, with low enthusiasm for post holiday purchases and weak market transactions. Traders have a strong wait-and-see attitude, with some low-priced goods circulating, but overall transaction volume is limited.
Future prospects
In the short term, the dichloromethane market may continue to experience weak fluctuations:
1. Supply pressure: If the enterprise continues to reduce its burden and inventory, prices may receive temporary support; Otherwise, high inventory will suppress the rebound space.
2. Cost game: The strong liquid chlorine and weak methanol form a hedge, narrowing the profit margin of enterprises and potentially forcing further production cuts.
3. Demand recovery: If downstream industries do not concentrate on replenishing inventory, the market will be difficult to change its fatigue. It is expected that prices will remain low and consolidate before the traditional peak demand season in June.

Market Overview

In April, the dichloromethane market in Shandong showed a unilateral downward trend, with a light trading atmosphere. Due to the continued weakness in demand, production enterprises had a strong willingness to ship, and bidding sales became the mainstream strategy. Coupled with the downward trend in raw material prices and insufficient cost support, the focus of the dichloromethane market continued to decline. On April 27th, the price fell to 2060 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 15.05%, the lowest in nearly five years. Low prices and the approaching May Day holiday have led to a slight rebound in prices as some downstream companies replenish their inventory at low prices, but the overall market is still in a weak pattern.
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of April 30th, the average price of dichloromethane dispersed water in Shandong Province was 2150 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 11.34%.
analysis of influencing factors
Supply side: Partial maintenance and load reduction, with relatively loose supply
Device dynamics: Some methane chloride units in Shandong region have gradually recovered after maintenance, with a slight increase in market supply in the middle of the month. Coupled with the annual maintenance and load reduction of units in other regions, the overall supply of the industry is relatively stable, and the operating rate fluctuates around 75%.
Enterprise inventory: Affected by sluggish demand, the enterprise still focuses on destocking, and manufacturers continue to offer small discounts on shipments. Pre holiday stocking and shipments are still acceptable.
Cost side: The prices of raw materials methanol and liquid chlorine are decreasing
Methanol: Due to the bearish macro sentiment and weak downstream demand, the high inventory of methanol at ports has dragged down prices. As of April 29th, the spot price of methanol in Shandong was reported at 2437.50 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 5.52%, which weakened the cost support for dichloromethane.
Liquid chlorine: The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong has fluctuated slightly and is running weakly, further weakening the cost support of dichloromethane.
On the demand side: there is a strong need for support, but a lack of explosive power
Affected by weak procurement in industries such as refrigerants, pharmaceuticals, and pesticides, market transactions have been sluggish. It is expected that downstream demand purchases will be made in May, with a slight improvement compared to the previous month, but still weak compared to the same period last year.
Refrigerant industry: favorable policies but limited transmission. The price of R32 has skyrocketed by 65% year-on-year to 48500 yuan/ton. The “trade in” policy for household appliances has significantly driven the growth of air conditioning production (+13% year-on-year in May), supporting the demand for R32. However, due to quota restrictions, refrigerant companies prioritize digesting inventory and have limited incremental purchases of dichloromethane.
The pharmaceutical industry: stable demand and no unexpected growth. In April, due to the clearance of inventory after GMP certification, demand decreased by 10% -12% month on month. It is expected to remain stable in May, with some companies restocking small orders, but there is no centralized stocking market.
Pesticide industry: Seasonal rebound, but dragged down by exports. May is the peak season for medication in the northern hemisphere, with a slight increase in stocking demand from domestic pharmaceutical companies. However, overseas pesticide inventories remain high, and China’s export growth rate has slowed down, suppressing the enthusiasm for pesticide intermediate production.
Other fields, such as adhesives, have not seen a significant rebound in industrial demand due to fluctuations in manufacturing PMI.
Market forecast: low-level oscillation operation, pay attention to changes in the supply and demand margin
It is expected that the demand for replenishment after the holiday will be released, and the price center of dichloromethane will slightly shift upward in May. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of post holiday stock replenishment, equipment maintenance status, and raw material price trends.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic aggregated MDI market first fell and then rose in April, rebounding at the bottom. From April 1st to 28th, the domestic market price of aggregated MDI increased from 16183 yuan/ton to 15316 yuan/ton, with a monthly price drop of 5.36% and a year-on-year price drop of 9.1%.

In early April, the aggregated MDI market experienced a unilateral decline. Domestic MDI devices are operating at medium to high loads, with fast market supply filling and downstream entry at low prices, resulting in average demand. In addition, with the arrival of tariff policies, the export market has been suppressed, and the news is bearish. Under the pessimistic mentality of the industry, prices are weak and declining.
In the middle and late of the month, the price of aggregated MDI fell to a low level, and mainstream manufacturers closed down, restricted sales, suspended sales, and had frequent maintenance plans. The supply side actively pushed up prices, the trading atmosphere improved, and intermediaries bought inventory at low prices. Aggregate MDI stopped falling and rose.
On the supply side, Ningbo Wanhua’s 1.2 million ton MDI plant is operating with reduced load. Shanghai Huntsman’s 350000 ton annual production facility will be shut down for maintenance in mid May, with a maintenance cycle of approximately three weeks. BASF Shanghai has a maintenance plan for its 250000 ton plant in May, while Dongcao Japan has a maintenance plan for its 7+130000 ton plant in May.
On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: In April, the pure benzene market was affected by international oil prices, external market conditions, and demand Under the influence of multiple factors such as tariff policies, the average price of pure benzene on April 1st was 6659 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 5935 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of up to 10.87%. Raw material aniline: The domestic aniline market is weak and declining. As of April 28th, the benchmark price of aniline in Shengyi Society was 7532 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.14% in April.
On the demand side, downstream urgent procurement, entering the market at low prices. In April, the export market was suppressed due to the impact of tariff policies.
Future forecast: The current MDI market is experiencing tight supply, low inventory levels among intermediaries, and average follow-up on the demand side. We will closely monitor the May guidance prices and maintenance plans of major manufacturers, and expect the short-term aggregated MDI market to fluctuate within a certain range.

The price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and fell in April

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 28th, the DOP price was 8175 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 1.37% from the April 1st DOP price of 8288.75 yuan/ton. The operating rate of plasticizer DOP enterprises has dropped to about 50%, the production of plasticizer DOP has decreased, the price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and fallen, the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen, the cost of plasticizer DOP has decreased, and the demand for cost reduction is weak. In April, the price of plasticizer fluctuated and fell.
The price of raw material isooctanol fluctuated and fell in April
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 28th, the price of isooctanol was 7483.33 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 3.44% compared to the price of 7750 yuan/ton on April 1st. In April, the price of isooctanol fell to its lowest point in 21 years. Isooctanol enterprises added new production capacity, and the domestic self-sufficiency rate of isooctanol increased to over 95%. The import of isooctanol decreased significantly, and the overall market supply of isooctanol remained stable. The downward pressure on isooctanol prices weakened, and upward support still exists. The cost of plasticizers has stopped falling and stabilized.
The price of raw material phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell in April
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 28th, the price of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries was 7166.67 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 3.59% compared to the price of 7433.33 yuan/ton on April 1st. At the end of March, multiple phthalic anhydride manufacturers stopped for maintenance, and the operating load of phthalic anhydride manufacturers decreased to about 50%. The supply of phthalic anhydride decreased, and the price of phthalic anhydride rose sharply. With the slow recovery of equipment operation in phthalic anhydride enterprises in April, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell, and downstream centralized procurement supported the demand for phthalic anhydride, and the price of phthalic anhydride stopped falling and stabilized.
US tariff policy exacerbates weak downstream demand for plasticizers
Domestic end users have resumed production, but the increase in new orders is slow. Many end users have available raw material inventory, and the digestion speed of DOP market supply is slow. In March, the increase in export market eased domestic supply pressure. In April, the US increased tariffs on Chinese goods, causing market concerns. At the same time, the purchasing sentiment of foreign trade enterprises towards the DOP market sharply cooled down. Under the bearish sentiment in the market, domestic trade demand also weakened, and the market buying atmosphere plummeted. Market inventory increased, and downstream demand weakened.
Future expectations
According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, in terms of cost, isooctanol prices will consolidate at a low level, phthalic anhydride prices will stop falling and consolidate, and the cost of plasticizer DOP will stabilize in the future; On the supply side, the operating load of plasticizer enterprises is stabilizing at a low level; In terms of demand, downstream production remains weak, and US tariffs affect the expected demand for plasticizers in the market, resulting in continued weak demand for plasticizers. Overall, with stable costs and weak supply and demand, it is expected that the price of plasticizer DOP will fluctuate and stabilize in the future.

The main player in the asphalt market in Shandong region. According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, the market price of heavy-duty asphalt # 70 in Shandong Province was 3440 yuan/ton on April 11th, and as of the 25th, the exit price in Shandong Province was 3560 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.12%.

There are signs of construction in terminal factories in Shandong region, with some end users stocking up and refineries shipping smoothly, while some refineries maintain limited shipments. Overall, market resources are tight, and the supply of goods from Jingbo on Friday is scarce. From a downstream perspective, the increase in demand is still acceptable, but the middle and lower reaches are still resistant to high prices.
From the perspective of Shengyi Society, Shandong’s local refineries have limited shipments, and the supply of goods in the entire North China region is relatively tight, supporting price increases. The slow release of demand in other regions has limited the upward space of asphalt prices, and we will continue to monitor the fluctuations in upstream crude oil prices.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from April 21st to 25th (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market increased from 2415 yuan/ton to 2418 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.10% during the period, a month on month decrease of 9.40%, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.40%. The recent demand for pre holiday stocking of methanol downstream in mainland China has provided some support for the market atmosphere, with smooth shipments from enterprises. However, there is still a wait-and-see attitude towards high prices, and market price changes are limited.

As of the close on April 25th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract 2505 for methanol futures opened at 2288 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2302 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2277 yuan/ton. It closed at 2288 yuan/ton in the closing session, up 2% or 0.09% from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume is 472101 lots, the position is 662561 lots, and the daily increase is 4749 lots.
In terms of cost, the thermal coal market has been operating weakly and steadily recently. Most of the coal mines in the main production area are producing and selling normally, while some coal mines have temporarily stopped production due to equipment failures, and the overall supply has remained stable. At present, the release of downstream demand is limited, and enterprise procurement tends to be cautious. The market’s wait-and-see sentiment is beginning to heat up, and coal prices will maintain a fluctuating and weak trend in the short term. The cost of methanol is influenced by negative factors.
Demand side, downstream acetic acid: expected increase in acetic acid demand; Downstream chlorides: The restart of the early load reduction device for chlorides has increased the demand for methanol; Downstream dimethyl ether: Increased demand for dimethyl ether; Downstream MTBE: MTBE demand decreases; There is currently no maintenance or restart device for formaldehyde, and the demand fluctuation is not significant. The majority of downstream demand for methanol has increased, and the demand for methanol is influenced by favorable factors.
Supply side, partial device maintenance; Partial device restoration. The overall loss exceeds the recovery, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.
In terms of external markets, as of the close of April 24th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $339.50-340.50 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 88.00-89.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 269.50-270.50 euros/ton, down 5 euros/ton.
Market forecast: As the May Day holiday approaches, there will be a partial release of replenishment demand for traditional downstream demand, and the planned maintenance of MTO facilities in North China will lead to a decline in industry consumption. The methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will mainly consolidate.