According to the monitoring of business agency, the price index of domestic rare earth market has declined since March, and the rare earth market has continued to decline. Recently, the price of domestic praseodymium neodymium series has fallen sharply, and the price of terbium Series in heavy rare earth market has continued to fall. On April 13, the rare earth index was 786 points, down 15 points from yesterday, down 21.95% from the highest point of 1007 points in the week (2022-02-24), and up 190.04% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now).
Since March, the price trend of domestic light rare earth market has fallen sharply, and the price of praseodymium and neodymium in the mainstream rare earth market has continued to fall. In terms of products:
It can be clearly seen from the product price trend chart that the prices of domestic metal neodymium, neodymium oxide, praseodymium oxide, metal praseodymium, praseodymium neodymium alloy and praseodymium neodymium oxide have declined. As of the 14th, the price of neodymium oxide in rare earths in China was 875000 yuan / ton, down 28.28%; The price of neodymium was 1.07 million yuan / ton, down 27.27%; The price of praseodymium oxide was 865000 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 20.64%; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 810000 yuan / ton, down 26.7%; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy was 1025000 yuan / ton, a decrease of 25.8%; The price of metal praseodymium was 1.185 million yuan / ton, with the price falling by 14.75%, and the trend of domestic rare earth market fell sharply.
The price of rare earth in the domestic market fell sharply, mainly due to the relatively light downstream procurement and consumption of inventory. In addition, affected by the epidemic, some downstream production was affected and downstream demand was limited. In addition, affected by the mentality of buying up but not buying down, the downstream magnetic material enterprises continued to reduce inventory, the demand for spot procurement was weak, and the trend of rare earth market fell. Due to the reduced demand, the supply of mainstream products such as praseodymium and neodymium oxide of some large upstream groups is normal. In addition, affected by the shutdown and production reduction of some new energy vehicle manufacturers and magnetic material manufacturers, the rare earth market is cold, the transaction atmosphere is poor, the market wait-and-see mood is strong, the demand for spot procurement is weak, and some trading enterprises continue to ship at low prices. Poor delivery of rare earth oxides and falling prices. Rare earth metal factories are more cautious in purchasing without lock orders, and the market price of rare earth in the field has fallen sharply.
The national environmental protection supervision is still continuing. The peak season of rare earth demand is over. At present, the inventory of neodymium praseodymium oxide has increased compared with the previous period. Affected by the mood of buying up or not buying down, the price trend on the floor has fallen sharply. According to statistics, the demand for new energy vehicles has increased. According to the data released by China Automobile Industry Association, in March 2022, China’s automobile production and sales reached 1.422 million and 1.43 million respectively, up 4 times and 3.6 times month on month, down 44.5% and 43.3% year-on-year. Automobile production and sales have declined. Recently, the demand in the field of new energy is normal, the delivery situation in the domestic light rare earth market is poor, and the price continues to decline. Affected by this, the price trend of domestic heavy rare earth market accelerated to fall.
As can be seen from the trend chart, the price of dysprosium Series in China fell sharply. As of the 14th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.455 million yuan / ton, down 21.57%; Dysprosium ferroalloy price was 2.455 million yuan / ton, down 21.19%; The price of dysprosium metal was 3.215 million yuan / ton, a decrease of 19.32%; The price of terbium Series in China has declined. The price of terbium oxide in China is 12.7 million yuan / ton, and the price of metal terbium is 16.2 million yuan / ton. The price trend of heavy rare earths has fallen sharply, the transaction market in the domestic rare earth market has fallen, and the leading magnetic material factory has not actively purchased, which has led to the decline of the domestic heavy rare earth market. Due to the insufficient raw material inventory of separation enterprises in the areas where light rare earth mines are used in Sichuan and other places, the reduction of this part of supply has little impact on the operating rate of separation plants in the areas where light rare earth mines are used. However, Myanmar’s export is limited, and the global rare earth supply is relatively concentrated, Myanmar is one of the production areas second only to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great impact on products in the domestic heavy rare earth market. Recently, the on-site procurement is not active, and the on-site heavy rare earth price trend has fallen sharply.
In addition, the total amount of rare earth industry will continue to be optimized in 2022, which is in line with the first batch of national policies to support the rare earth industry. On the 28th, the Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources issued the first batch of Rare Earth total amount control indicators in 2022, of which the ore indicators and smelting separation indicators were 100800 tons and 97200 tons respectively. The increase of the index is in line with expectations, and the state is still relatively restrained in releasing the rare earth supply index. The first batch of ore indicators / smelting separation indicators in 2022 are + 20% year-on-year, and the growth rate is lower than that of the first batch in 2021 (year-on-year + 27.3% / 27.6%). It is expected that the overall supply and demand of rare earth will remain tight in 22 years. The index increment is still focused on light rare earths. Among the mining indicators in 2022, rock ore type rare earths (mainly light rare earths) were 89310 tons, with a year-on-year increase of + 23.2%, and ionic rare earths were 11490 tons, with a year-on-year balance. It is expected that the increment will be concentrated in light rare earths, which will be a long-term trend, and there is still support from domestic rare earths.
Although the new energy vehicles, wind power and variable-frequency air conditioners in the downstream of rare earths are developing sustainably, and the long-term demand is guaranteed, the recent downstream procurement is relatively negative, the accumulation of rare earth enterprises is increasing, the recent trading market in the market is cold, and the later supply enterprises will continue to restart. Chen Ling, an analyst of the business society, predicts that the price trend of the rare earth market will continue to decline in the short term.