According to the sample data monitored by the business community, the domestic ethanol market continued to decline from July 4 to 11. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic ethanol producers remained at 7433 yuan / ton. At the weekend, the price fell to 7216 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.91% during the week, a month on month decrease of 3.35% and a year-on-year increase of 4.78%.

The domestic ethanol market price continues to decline, the actual transaction continues to be low-end, the demand side has entered the off-season of Baijiu, the chemical industry just needs to purchase, and the price is difficult to see a positive boost in the short term.

In terms of raw materials, domestic corn operates stably, and short-term consumption is dominated by on-site inventory. It is expected that the devices will be overhauled intensively in mid July, and the low price of raw materials is difficult to bear the heavy pressure.

In terms of downstream products, the high temperature period in summer is the off-season of downstream Baijiu, and the price of ethanol is not dominant at this stage, which basically maintains the rigid demand for procurement; In terms of chemical industry, ethyl acetate has no device change, and the devices of major manufacturers in Shandong operate normally at full load, with stable short-term demand.

As of July 12, the latest price dynamics of ethanol market in various regions:

Region, Category, Price

Shandong region, Common wheat, 7250-7300 yuan / ton

Shandong region, Corn superior, 7800-7900 yuan / ton

Shandong region, Corn has no water, 8150-8200 yuan / ton

Southern Jiangsu, General, 7300-7350 yuan / ton

Northern Jiangsu, General, 7200-7250 yuan / ton

Northern Jiangsu, Superior, 7350 yuan / ton

Northern Jiangsu, No water, 8050-8150 yuan / ton

Anhui region, General, 7150-7200 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Anhui region, No water, 8000-8050 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Guangxi, Honey alcohol, 8000-8150 yuan / ton

Guangxi, Corn / Cassava 95% alcohol, 7500-7700 yuan / ton self delivery

Guangxi, Anhydrous ethanol, 8300-8350 yuan / ton self delivery

Guangdong, Corn alcohol, 7800-7850 yuan / ton

Guangdong, Rice / Cassava general ethanol, 7600-7700 yuan / ton Dongguan self delivery

Guangdong, Anhydrous cassava ethanol, 8400-8500 yuan / ton Dongguan self delivery

Henan Province, Superior, 7040-7050 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Henan Province, Anhydrous ethanol, 7900-8000 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Hebei region, General, 7350-7400 yuan / ton, including tax

Sichuan region, Corn alcohol, Price reference: 8000 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Yunnan, Molasses alcohol, 8130-8150 yuan / ton

Jinzhou District, Liaoning Province, Corn alcohol, general grade 7350-7400 yuan / ton

Heilongjiang region, General, 6700-7000 yuan / ton, tax included

Heilongjiang region, Anhydrous ethanol, 7800-7900 yuan / ton

Jilin region, Ordinary alcohol, 6900-7000 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Jilin region, Premium alcohol, 7000-7050 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Jilin region, Anhydrous ethanol, 7700-8150 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Recently, the unit has been intensively overhauled, and the supply has contracted in the short term. The cost support of corn and cassava is weak, and the shock is downward; Factories are unable to bear the heavy pressure of weak demand, low-cost shipments, the downstream demand side has entered the off-season of Baijiu, the chemical demand side has maintained rigid demand, small factories are difficult to bear the heavy pressure, and low-end sources of goods are frequent. The ethanol analysts of the business society predict that the domestic ethanol market may continue to fluctuate and decline in the short term.

The domestic MTBE market is descending. According to the data of business agency, the price of MTBE remained at 8620 yuan / ton on July 4 and 8100 yuan / ton on July 11. During the cycle, the price fell by 6.03%, the maximum amplitude was 6.25%, and the price fell by 5.68% month on month, with a year-on-year increase of 36.21%.

The domestic MTBE market fell significantly this week, with crude oil prices rising first and then declining, and finally fell sharply compared with last week, which was a bad market mentality; The gasoline market entered a downward trend, lacking interest in high priced MTBE raw materials, and the overall transaction was poor.

In the upstream, the domestic methanol market was less than expected under the background of macro weakness, and the mainland market fell back after rising in a narrow range.

In terms of external trading, as of the close of July 8, the closing price of Asian MTBE market increased by 37.50 US dollars / ton compared with the previous trading day, and FOB Singapore closed at 1103.99-1105.99 US dollars / ton. The closing price of MTBE in Europe fell by 61 dollars / ton compared with the previous trading day, and FOB ara closed at 1572.49-1572.99 dollars / ton. The closing price of MTBE market in the United States increased by $9.48 / ton compared with the previous trading day, and FOB Gulf FOB closed at $1468.31-1468.66 / ton (413.61-413.71 cents / gallon).

Region, country., Closing price, Up and down

Asia, FOB Singapore ., 1103.99-1105.99 dollars / ton, 37.50 USD / ton

Europe, FOB ARA., 1572.49-1572.99 USD / ton, – US $61 / ton

U.S.A., FOB Bay, 1468.31-1468.66 dollars / ton, 9.84 USD / ton

The spot supply in the market increased, and the sales pressure in some regions remained. MTBE analysts of business agency believe that the domestic MTBE market may be mainly sorted out in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas was 5918 yuan / ton on July 4 and 5816 yuan / ton on July 8. Domestic LNG prices fell 1.72% this week.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Domestic LNG prices rose slightly this week and then fell again, with a decline of 1.72% during the week. The domestic liquid price rebounded slightly at the beginning of the week, and fell in the middle of the week and continued to the weekend. The LNG market is weak this week, and the terminal demand is sluggish. Manufacturers mostly cut prices, and the market is bearish. As of July 8, the quotation of Inner Mongolia is 5750-5850 yuan / ton, that of Shaanxi is 5850-5900 yuan / ton, that of Shanxi is 5900-6000 yuan / ton, that of Ningxia is 5800-6020 yuan / ton, that of Hebei is 5950-6100 yuan / ton, and that of Henan is 6050-6200 yuan / ton.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

The LNG analyst of business agency believes that the current LNG market is weak, and there is no good news for the time being. The downstream demand is insufficient, the market wait-and-see mood increases, and the downward trend is difficult to change. It is expected that LNG will continue to decline in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, isopropanol prices fell this week. The average price of isopropanol in China was 7300 yuan / ton last Thursday and 7125 yuan / ton this Thursday. The price fell by 2.4% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

Figure: comparison chart of price trend of acetone and isopropanol

The domestic isopropanol market price fell this week. At present, isopropanol manufacturers mainly export orders. The domestic isopropanol market is relatively light, with strong wait-and-see sentiment, general downstream demand, and rigid demand. Up to now, most quotations of Shandong isopropanol are about 6900-7200 yuan / ton; Most of Jiangsu isopropanols are quoted at about 7200 yuan / ton. Internationally, isopropanol in the United States closed stable on July 5, while the European isopropanol market closed down.

In terms of raw acetone, the ex factory price of domestic acetone fell this week. The average price of domestic acetone was 5560 yuan / ton last Thursday and 5360 yuan / ton this Thursday. The price fell by 3.6% during the week. The strength of terminal procurement is general, and the actual orders on site are insufficient. The business community predicts that the acetone market will continue to be weak in the short term.

As for propylene as raw material, according to the price chart of business agency, up to now, the mainstream quotation of propylene (Shandong) market is 7400-7700 yuan / ton, the market supply pressure increases, and the price pressure drops. Propylene price is expected to be adjusted at a low level in the near future.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

Isopropanol analysts from the chemical branch of the business club believe that at present, domestic factories are mainly export orders, and the domestic isopropanol market demand is poor. Upstream, acetone fell, propylene fell, and cost support was weak. It is expected that the market focus of isopropanol will be downward in the short term.

In July, the domestic liquefied gas market was relatively strong, and Shandong civil gas market rose by a narrow margin. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of liquefied gas in Shandong civil market was 5890.00 yuan / ton on July 1 and 5910.00 yuan / ton on July 5, with an increase of 0.34% during the period and 34.32% over the same period last year.

As of July 5, the mainstream prices of liquefied gas in various regions in China are as follows:

Region, Mainstream quotation

North China, 5900-6000 yuan / ton

South China, 5600-5800 yuan / ton

Northeast China, 5800-6100 yuan / ton

Shandong region, 5850-5900 yuan / ton

In July, the overall price of domestic liquefied gas market was more strong, and the civil gas market in Shandong was higher, but the fluctuation range was relatively limited. Recently, the international crude oil price has fluctuated and risen, and the cost side has brought some support to the market. The downstream maintains the replenishment on demand, the market trading atmosphere is general, and there is no pressure on the production and sales of manufacturers in Shandong market. However, due to seasonal factors, the continued high temperature in some regions has not significantly improved the terminal demand, which has significantly restrained the market and limited the range of price fluctuations.

Recently, the LPG futures market has increased significantly, which has brought some support to the spot market. On July 5, the opening price of LPG futures contract 2208 was 5938, the highest price was 6046, the lowest price was 5856, the closing price was 5902, the previous settlement price was 5779, the settlement price was 5931, up 123, the trading volume was 143777, the position was 60874, and the daily increase was -2191. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

Recently, the international crude oil price and futures market have brought obvious support. The civil market price of liquefied gas is relatively strong, and the upstream pressure of Shandong market will not be hit for the time being. However, the current seasonal impact is more obvious, the terminal consumption is slow, and the market trading atmosphere is general. In addition, on July 5, the international crude oil fell sharply, and the price fell sharply. The news is bad for the market mentality. It is expected that the market price of Shandong civil gas will fall in the short term.

Acetic anhydride prices fell sharply in June

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of acetic anhydride fell sharply in June, and the high level of acetic anhydride market fell back. As of June 30, the price of acetic anhydride was 7325 yuan / ton, down 14.33% from 8550 yuan / ton on June 1 at the beginning of the month. The price of acetic acid peaked and fell, the cost of acetic anhydride raw materials fell, and the downward pressure on acetic anhydride market increased.

The price of raw material acetic acid fell sharply in June

It can be seen from the trend chart of acetic acid price of business club that the price of acetic acid peaked and fell in June, and the overall acetic acid market fell sharply. As of June 30, the price of acetic acid was 4150 yuan / ton, down 24.68% from 5510 yuan / ton on June 1 at the beginning of the month. The price of acetic acid plummeted, the cost of acetic anhydride fell, and the downward pressure on acetic anhydride increased.

Methanol prices rose first and then fell

It can be seen from the methanol price trend chart of business club that the methanol price first rose and then fell in June. The overall methanol market in June fluctuated and stabilized. As of June 30, the methanol price was 2620 yuan / ton, which was 2717.5 yuan / ton higher than that on June 1 at the beginning of the month. The methanol price was relatively stable. The price of methanol has stabilized, the cost of raw materials of acetic anhydride has stabilized, and the upward momentum of acetic anhydride has weakened.

Outlook

According to the acetic anhydride data analyst of business agency, the price of raw acetic acid plummeted in June, the cost of acetic anhydride fell, and the downward pressure on acetic anhydride increased; In June, there were many maintenance enterprises in the acetic acid industry chain, and the supply of acetic acid decreased. In the off-season, the pressure of acetic anhydride decline increased. In general, the price of acetic anhydride raw materials fell, and the market demand was off-season. It is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will fluctuate and fall in the future.

According to the bulk commodity list data of business agency, the formaldehyde Market in Shandong is stable this week. The average price of formaldehyde in Shandong is 1270.00 yuan / ton. The current price is flat month on month, and the current price fell by 7.13% year-on-year.

formaldehyde

The formaldehyde market price in Shandong was basically stable this week. From the above figure, we can see that the formaldehyde market has not fluctuated much in the past two months, and the market has fluctuated and consolidated this week. As of July 4, the mainstream market price in Shandong is 1230-1300 yuan / ton. Recently, the methanol market has been shaken and consolidated, and the cost support is general. The formaldehyde market is basically stable under the influence of methanol, and the downstream demand is difficult to improve. Just need to purchase is maintained, and the formaldehyde market transaction is general, and the market remains unchanged.

Upstream methanol: the domestic methanol market fluctuated in a narrow range, and the raw coal market dragged down the atmosphere of methanol futures, and the spot market fell in a narrow range. In terms of supply, the production enterprises in the main production areas have been overhauled, showing a little positive, but the market sentiment is poor, the pick-up volume of the social warehouse is still significantly low, and the inventory continues to accumulate.

This week, the methanol market fluctuated little. At present, the operation of downstream plate plants is general. They are more wait-and-see about the formaldehyde market, with strong bargaining sentiment. The market inventory digestion is poor. It is difficult to improve the formaldehyde price, maintain the shipment at a low price, and the formaldehyde market is weak.

Recently, the domestic methanol market has been shaken and sorted out, and the demand of downstream wood panel factories has continued to be weak. Therefore, formaldehyde analysts from the chemical branch of the business agency expect that the recent formaldehyde price in Shandong will mainly fall in shock.

The domestic MTBE market rebounded higher. According to the data of business news agency, the price of MTBE remained at 8500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 8610 yuan / ton at the end of the week. During the cycle, the price increased by 1.29%, the maximum amplitude was 2.82%, and the price increased by 5.81% month on month and 38.13% year on year.

Trend chart of MTBE average domestic production price of business agency:

The domestic MTBE market rebounded at a high level this week. The specific reasons are: crude oil was first suppressed and then increased, but the price is still at a high level, giving the market a certain psychological support; Gasoline prices have also followed the upward trend, with a slight increase in capacity utilization and an appropriate increase in demand for raw materials; Outlet support.

In the upstream, the domestic methanol market rebounded at a low level, the mainland transactions were heavy again, and the coastal market performed generally.

In terms of external trading, as of the close on June 30, the closing price of Asian MTBE market was reduced by 46 dollars / ton compared with the previous trading day, and FOB Singapore closed at 1318.99-1320.99 dollars / ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market was reduced by $98 / ton compared with the previous trading day, and FOB ara closed at $1782.49-1782.99 / ton. The closing price of MTBE market in the United States decreased by 64.89 dollars / ton compared with the previous trading day, and FOB Gulf FOB closed at 1578.25-1578.6 dollars / ton (444.58-444.68 cents / gallon).

Region, country., Closing price, Up and down

Asia, FOB Singapore, 1318.99-1320.99 USD / ton, – 46 dollars / ton

Europe, FOB ARA., 1782.49-1782.99 dollars / ton, – 98 dollars / ton

U.S.A., FOB Bay, 1578.25-1578.6 USD / ton, 64.89 USD / ton

The limited spot resources in the market have led to the continuous rise of prices in the near future. However, as the price rises to a high level, the downstream cost increases greatly, and the demand for raw materials is gradually flat. Business agency MTBE analysts believe that the domestic MTBE market may narrow in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the market price of titanium dioxide fell this month. At the beginning of the month, the average price of domestic titanium dioxide was 20616.67 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average price was 20450 yuan / ton. The price decreased slightly within the month, with a range of 0.81%.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of titanium dioxide fell this month. The domestic market has a light trading situation and a strong wait-and-see mood. Traders are cautious in taking goods. The downstream demand is poor, and they mainly need to purchase just now. At present, titanium dioxide manufacturers have great inventory pressure and cost pressure. Up to now, the domestic rutile titanium dioxide factory quotation including tax is between 19100-22000 yuan / ton; The ex factory quotation of anatase titanium dioxide including tax is between 17800-19000 yuan / ton.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the price of titanium concentrate in Panzhihua Xichang region increased slightly this month. The titanium ore market is acceptable. The supply of China mineral market remains tight. There are many enquiries, and the quotation is firm and upward. Up to now, the quotation excluding tax of 38-42 grade titanium ore is about 1530-1580 yuan / ton, the quotation excluding tax of 46 grade 10 titanium ore is about 2220-2280 yuan / ton, and the quotation of 47 grade 20 ore is about 2400-2450 yuan / ton. In the short term, the market price of titanium concentrate remains strong, and the transaction price of the actual order is negotiated.

In terms of sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market price fell violently this month. The sulfuric acid price fell from 1068.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 1018.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 4.68%, an increase of 72.54% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. According to the manufacturer’s quotation, the prices of mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers rose and fell each other this month, and the manufacturer’s inventory was small. The upstream cost support is insufficient, which has a negative impact on the sulfuric acid market. The downstream market of hydrofluoric acid and titanium dioxide declined slightly, and the downstream enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid weakened. The sulfuric acid analysts of business society believe that the short-term sulfuric acid market may suffer a small shock and decline under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

Titanium dioxide analysts at business news agency believe that the titanium ore market is strong and upward, the sulfuric acid market price fluctuates and falls, and the cost support is acceptable. It is expected that the market price of titanium dioxide will be stable in the short term, and the actual transaction price will be negotiated.

Recently, the engineering plastics market has been negative. According to the data monitored by the business society, the decline of various engineering plastics varieties expanded during June. As of June 29, compared with the beginning of the month, the decline of each product from high to low was pc-13.16%, pa66-8.74%, pa6-4.88%, pom+0.16% and pet+2.19%. The off-season market in the domestic market is gradually unfolding, and the price is almost green across the board. Although there were positive factors such as the easing of health incidents in East China and the reduction of the purchase tax on some passenger vehicles launched by relevant departments during the month, it was difficult to reverse the weak demand of the industry in the off-season. In addition, the domestic logistics freight has risen with the oil price, and the upstream chemical raw materials have fallen with the international crude oil, so that both manufacturers and traders have fallen into the dilemma of left-hand cost bearing and right-hand profit giving.

2、 Market analysis

PC

Among brother products, PC fell the most this month. It is reasonable to say that the PC market has weakened for a long time, and there is still such a decline in the near future. The reason is that the fundamentals have been weak for a long time. In terms of raw materials, bisphenol a still had a driving force at the beginning of the month, but it was difficult to smooth out the sluggish terminal demand. During the month, with the weakening of inventory pressure and cost, the whole industrial chain was released, and the bisphenol a market fell below 14000 yuan / ton. The decline of upstream bisphenol a market reduced the cost support of PC. In terms of industry load, due to the pressure on the supply side due to the resumption of some units in western Shandong, the inventory of enterprises and midstream was high in June, and the supply side lacked support for spot goods. The remote upstream international crude oil also fell due to the impact of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike and other reasons. The downstream demand is weak, the operating rate of terminal enterprises is limited due to various factors, and the goods taking situation is poor. The floor gradually entered the trading mode of “price for volume”, the market transaction was cold, the mentality of buyers buying up but not buying down spread, and the offer made a substantial profit.

PA66

Similarly, PA66 has been weakening in the medium and long term. It seems that the last time the terminal enterprises were overdrawn by the scenery, or the long return of the price market. PA66 has been falling all the way since the peak season last year. In this month, the average offer price of PA66 sample enterprises of business agency fell by 8.74% and the spot price position came below 23500 yuan / ton. The main bad news is that the industry is deeply involved in the long-term contradiction between supply and demand, the spot supply in the market is abundant, the inventory pressure is difficult to solve, and the profit of PA66 enterprise continues to be under pressure. The terminal enterprises’ follow-up in taking goods tends to just need to maintain production. In addition, due to the low operating rate in the off-season, the consumption of PA66 is lower, the demand is further shrinking, and there is a strong resistance to the high price supply. On site supply exceeds demand, merchants have great resistance to shipment, and are forced to exchange profits for quantity. At present, it is difficult for PA66 to get out of the contradiction between supply and demand in the short term, and it is expected that the weak market will continue.

In addition, news about the completion of domestic PA66 and its important raw material adiponitrile production line also impacted the market. Compared with the periodic bad situation of the contradiction between supply and demand, the capacity expansion and the improvement of the industrial chain may have a more far-reaching impact on the domestic PA66 pricing.

PA6

PA6 fluctuated in the first and middle of this month, and the decline was concentrated in the last ten days, but in fact, the domestic market has been weak since the middle of this month. The operating rate of domestic PA6 polymerization plant was generally stable at 70% in this month. The supply side of PA6 is relatively abundant, and the profits of production enterprises are under pressure. In terms of news, the tension between Russia and Ukraine remained, and the international crude oil price began to weaken due to the Fed’s interest rate hike, which immediately affected the sharp decline of pure benzene and caprolactam in the upstream of the industrial chain. Although the supply of direct upstream caprolactam decreased, it failed to smooth out the bad guidance. In the second half of the month, the supporting and conducting effect on PA6 cost end collapsed. The load of downstream enterprises fell. As the market entered the off-season, the demand slowed down. The purchaser shall take the goods carefully and maintain the production of small orders. The on-site trading shrank, and it is expected that the trend of PA6 market may still weaken in the short term.

POM

As a typical example of insufficient arrival of overseas cargoes under the influence of international health events, the domestic POM market has been able to operate at a high level. At the beginning of June, even the high level rose slightly. The small callback in late June seemed to be a narrow adjustment, but in fact, the market has been weak. In the first half of the month, due to the maintenance of some POM enterprises at the end of May and the rise of upstream formaldehyde and methanol, the cost support of the on-site supply side was acceptable. However, the operating rate of terminal enterprises has gradually entered the off-season mode. Generally, due to profit or order problems, the operating rate has gradually narrowed. The purchasing operation is cautious and mainly takes small orders. Some bargain hunting operations have reduced some low-end offers and lifted the spot price. Although the current spot is temporarily stable, the consumption of on-site inventory is slow. Under the condition that the supply side remains abundant and the consumption is weak, it cannot be ruled out that the POM price is stable and weak in the short term.

PET

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the price of water bottle PET rose and fell in June. Although the overall spot price increased by 2.19% compared with the beginning of the month, compared with the high point of 9850 yuan / ton on June 10, the price position of 9340 yuan / ton on June 29 fully reversed the increase of five percentage points. At the end of the month, the market operating rate was normal, the manufacturer actively offered profits for shipment, and the inquiry atmosphere was ok, but the overall market trading was weak. The willingness of downstream goods preparation is general, and ethylene glycol support on the cost side is not strong. It is expected that the pet market will operate in a narrow range and weak in the short term.

Aftermarket forecast

The market of engineering plastics fell in June, and it seems that it is difficult to compare with each other horizontally. In terms of vertical year-on-year comparison, according to the data monitored by the business community over the years, it is not difficult to predict some trends of the next industry. The current season is already in midsummer, followed by an increase in shutdown and maintenance of production units of polymerization enterprises. It is reported that the power supply across the country is stable this year, and the peak shifting production may be reduced compared with previous years. The expected reduction in supply may not smooth out the impact of weak demand in the traditional off-season. The load of household appliances, automobiles and other industries is lower, and the orders for engineering plastics are reduced. In the short term, it may be difficult to find a breakthrough point from the downstream. It is suggested to focus on the international crude oil and the upstream product market of various industrial chains.