1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average market price of 55% powdered monoammonium was 4650 yuan / ton on July 18, and the average market price of 55% powdered monoammonium was 4640 yuan / ton on July 25. The price of monoammonium phosphate fell 0.22% this week.

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate was 4700 yuan / ton on July 18, and 4725 yuan / ton on July 25. The price of diammonium phosphate rose 0.53% this week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the ammonium phosphate Market is still in poor condition, and the trend is volatile and weak. The price of raw sulfur continues to decline, and the cost support is weakened. The transaction focus of downstream compound fertilizer was lowered, and the purchase of raw material monoammonium was reduced. Domestic demand for diammonium is less in the off-season, mainly for export. At present, most manufacturers of ammonium phosphate have suspended their quotation, and the quotation of traders is chaotic. This week, the market quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Sichuan is about 4560 yuan / ton, and the market quotation of 58% powdered ammonium is about 4750 yuan / ton. There is no quotation in other regions, and the actual transaction is negotiated. This week, the market quotation of 64% diammonium in Yunnan is about 4700 yuan / ton, the market quotation of 64% diammonium in Guizhou is about 4750 yuan / ton, and the market quotation of 60% diammonium is about 4300 yuan / ton. The actual transaction is negotiated.

In terms of raw sulfur, sulfur prices continued to fall this week. The downstream demand continues to be weak, the enthusiasm for entering the market is general, the shipment of enterprises is poor, there is inventory pressure, there is a low-cost supply in the market, the downstream purchase is cautious, the enterprise quotation is downward, the sulfur support is weak, and the short-term sulfur market is weak.

In terms of raw phosphorus ore, the domestic phosphorus ore market has been running strongly this week. The market price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in Guizhou is around 1100-1150 yuan / ton, and the market price of 28% grade phosphorus ore is 980-1030 yuan / ton. At present, the downstream demand for phosphate rock is stable, and the trading atmosphere in the site is normal.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the ammonium phosphate analyst of business agency, the current raw material price trend is weak, the market demand for ammonium phosphate is sluggish, the industry is cautious, and the focus of traders’ transactions is down. It is expected that the market of ammonium phosphate will continue to be weak in the short term.

According to the data of business agency, the chloroform market fell slightly this week (7.18-7.25). As of July 25, the price of chloroform apron in Shandong remained at 2850 yuan / ton, down 1.30% from 2887 yuan / ton last Monday.

Although Jinling Dongying and other methane chloride plants shut down, the domestic market supply continued to be loose; In addition, the operation of downstream refrigerants is low, and chloroform is purchased on demand, so there are few market transactions.

This week (7.18-7.25), the spot price of methanol rebounded slightly, and the cost support strengthened slightly, but the upper suppression was obvious, and the later rebound was difficult to continue. According to the business agency, as of July 25, the spot price of methanol was 2432 yuan / ton, up 1.62% from 2393 yuan / ton last Monday.

In the off-season of the industrial chain, the downstream refrigerant of chloroform operates stably, and the low level of operation is stable, which has a certain support for chloroform, but the support is still weak.

Analysts of methane chloride data of business agency believe that domestic supply pressure is still on; Refrigerant demand is supported to some extent, and chloroform is expected to maintain a narrow consolidation in the later period.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of July 22, 2022, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was 6866 yuan / ton, which was 866 yuan / ton higher than that on July 1, 2022 (the reference price of dimethyl carbonate was 6000 yuan / ton), or 14.44%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business agency that since July (7.1-7.22), the domestic dimethyl carbonate market has shown an overall upward trend. At the beginning of July, supported by the low inventory of dimethyl carbonate on the floor, the confidence of the industry increased. In the first week of July, the market price of dimethyl carbonate ushered in a wide increase. As of July 7, the domestic ex factory price of dimethyl carbonate was 6700 yuan / ton, with an increase of more than 11% in the first week of July. Subsequently, the market focus of dimethyl carbonate continued to move closer to the high-end, and with the gradual recovery of the relevant market of downstream electrolyte, the demand side was also boosted. As of July 15, the domestic ex factory price of dimethyl carbonate was 6966 yuan / ton, with a half month increase of 16.11%.

In late July, the trading atmosphere of dimethyl carbonate on the floor weakened. On July 18, the market price of dimethyl carbonate experienced a narrow reduction, with a reduction range of around 100-200 yuan / ton. At present, as of July 22, the domestic ex factory price of dimethyl carbonate is around 6500-7300 yuan / ton. At present, the dimethyl carbonate market is in operation, and the trading atmosphere on the floor is general.

In terms of upstream propylene oxide, the propylene oxide market fell this week (7.18-7.21). Recently, the raw material propylene market has been reorganized and operated, and the cost support is limited. At the beginning of the week, the supply side devices are stable, the downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, and the market wait-and-see is weak. With the price falling, the factory shipment has improved slightly, but it is still general, some devices have decreased, the downstream procurement mentality is still cautious, and the market game is weak. On the 21st, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong fell to about 8400-8500 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of July 21, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 9733.33 yuan / ton, down 4.26% from Monday’s price.

Future trend analysis

At present, the market buying of dimethyl carbonate is weak, and the effective support is loose. The dimethyl carbonate datagrapher of business society believes that in the short term, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market is mainly adjusted and operated in the range, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the news changes of supply and demand.

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the price of industrial and battery grade lithium carbonate increased slightly this week. On July 21, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 460000 yuan / ton, up 0.22% from the average price at the beginning of the week (on July 17, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 459000 yuan / ton). On July 21, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 478600 yuan / ton, up 0.13% from the average price at the beginning of the week (on July 17, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 478000 yuan / ton).

According to the observation of market changes, the price of lithium carbonate rose slightly this week. At present, the supply of lithium carbonate in the market is relatively stable, and the large production plants are still dominated by long-term single supply. In order to drive the market trend of lithium carbonate, some traders offered slightly higher prices, but the actual transaction was more single. While the downstream demand is still dominated by rigid demand procurement, and the high price lithium carbonate is still in a wait-and-see state.

Downstream lithium hydroxide prices remained stable, market transactions were relatively light, electric hydrogen production was relatively stable, and the supply side changed little, maintaining rigid order production.

The price of lithium iron phosphate in the downstream operates smoothly, mainly for rigid demand procurement, and the procurement atmosphere is general. At present, the manufacturer’s supply is still tight, and the supply side is obviously insufficient. It is mainly based on the arrangement and shipment of contract customers, the number of new orders is limited, and the overall market negotiation atmosphere is acceptable.

The lithium carbonate analyst of business club believes that although the price of lithium carbonate has a slight upward trend recently, the market demand has not changed significantly, and the acceptance of the price of high priced lithium carbonate is not good. Due to the stable price of lithium iron phosphate, the cost side of lithium salt is also under certain pressure. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will remain stable in the short term.

According to the bulk data monitoring of business agency, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong fell violently this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of Shandong styrene was 10407.14 yuan / ton, and at the weekend, the average price of Shandong styrene was 10351.43 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.54%. The price increased by 11.16% over the same period last year.

styrene

The styrene market price fluctuated and fell this week. It can be seen from the above figure that the recent price of styrene has been dominated by shock consolidation, and the price fell slightly this week. The main reason is that affected by the continuous low crude oil price, the focus of the pure benzene market has shifted downward, which is difficult to support the styrene market, the supply and demand fundamentals are weak, some maintenance devices are restarted, the market inventory is expected to rise, and the spot price of styrene has fallen slightly.

In terms of raw materials, the expectation of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates has raised the risk of economic recession, superimposed on the repeated outbreaks in Asia, and the possible blockade measures have suppressed demand. The rise in international crude oil futures was slow after the sharp decline. Pure benzene fell slightly. Recently, the price of pure benzene in China is 8600-9150 yuan / ton. The decline of pure benzene cannot support the price of styrene.

On the downstream side, the three major downstream styrene rose and fell mixed this week. The PS market fell weakly, and the output increased slightly. The cost side support weakened, the merchants’ shipment was under pressure, and the price was mainly reduced slightly. The benzene price in East China market was 10600-11300 yuan / ton, the low-end price fell 300 yuan / ton, and the high-end price fell 200 yuan / ton.

EPS prices fell this week. The overall transaction weakened month on month. As of July 14, Jiangsu enterprises had 11200 yuan / ton of ordinary materials and 12100 yuan / ton of barrier fuel. The cost support is weak, and the purchasing sentiment of terminal merchants is not high, mainly on the sidelines.

ABS market fell this week. This week, the quotation in East China market is 12010 yuan / ton, and the price in South China market is 11112 yuan / ton, excluding tax. At present, it is in the off-season of household appliance procurement, and the start-up of terminal household appliances is poor, and the demand for ABS has weakened significantly; ABS prices continued to fall.

Recently, the international crude oil market has been weak. Styrene plants such as Gulf, Wanhua, Dushanzi and Hengli will be gradually started, and the negotiable supply of styrene is expected to increase. On the whole, if the raw material level falls next week, the styrene market will follow suit.

As of July 18, the average quotation price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 12383.33 yuan / ton, down 5.11% from July 14, 34.25% from June 18, and 34.48% year-on-year in a three-month cycle, according to the bulk list data of business news agency.

Recently, the quotations of enterprises in the epichlorohydrin market vary. After the early stage of downstream periodic replenishment, the market rose and fell again. Recently, the consolidation of propylene, the market price of glycerol, the weakening of cost support, and the restart of some units have resulted in flat demand, low enthusiasm for downstream goods, and the loss of profits from the cargo holders. The focus of epichlorohydrin market negotiations fell.

The upstream propylene, according to the data monitoring of business news agency, the reference price of propylene was 7354.60 on July 18, a decrease of 4.24% compared with July 1 (7680.60).

The downstream epoxy resin, according to the monitoring data of business news agency, on July 18, the reference price of epoxy resin was 18325.00, a decrease of 18.37 compared with July 1 (22450.00).

The epichlorohydrin analyst of business club believes that at present, the cost support is declining, the market mentality is insufficient, and the downstream inquiry atmosphere is poor. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market may be weak in the short term.

DOTP prices fell sharply this week

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of DOTP fell this week, and the decline of DOTP market remained the same. As of July 18, the price of DOTP was 9012.50 yuan / ton, down 6.85% from 9675 yuan / ton on July 10 last weekend. On the 18th, the DOTP price rebounded slightly compared with the previous trading day, and the cost of raw materials wanted to rise, so the DOTP price stopped falling and adjusted.

Isooctanol prices stopped falling and rebounded this week

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the price of isooctanol rebounded after falling this week, and the isooctanol market stopped falling. As of July 18, the price of isooctanol was 8166.67 yuan / ton, down 5.77% from 8666.67 yuan / ton on July 10 last weekend. The price of isooctanol broke through the profit line, the price of isooctanol stopped falling and rebounded, the cost of DOTP wanted to rise, the downward pressure of DOTP market weakened, and the upward momentum increased.

PTA prices fluctuated and fell this week

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, affected by the decline in crude oil prices, PTA prices fluctuated and fell this week, and PTA prices fell. As of July 18, PTA prices were 5952.50 yuan / ton, down 10.49% from 6650 yuan / ton on July 10 last weekend. The high crude oil price fell, PTA prices fell, DOTP costs fell, and the positive momentum of DOTP weakened, with great downward pressure.

Aftermarket expectations

DOTP data analysts believe that PTA prices fell sharply due to the decline in crude oil prices; The price of isooctanol broke through the profit line, the price of isooctanol stopped falling and rebounded, the cost of DOTP stabilized, and the price of DOTP stopped falling and stabilized. In the future, the cost of DOTP raw materials tends to stabilize and the cumulative demand is low. The downward pressure of DOTP is still there, and the upward momentum is increasing. It is expected that the price of DOTP will stop falling and stabilize in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the price of PVC carbide SG5 fell this week. The average price of domestic PVC was 6850 yuan / ton last Friday, and 6498.57 yuan / ton this Friday. The price fell by 5.13% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic spot market of PVC continued to decline this week. Futures prices fell today, dampening sentiment in the spot market. Many manufacturers do not offer external prices, and one single discussion is the main thing. Downstream enterprises and traders are more wait-and-see, inquiry is OK, spot transactions are general, downstream procurement is cautious, and orders are mainly received on demand. Up to now, the quotation range of domestic pvc5 electric stone is mostly around 6100-6500 yuan / ton.

In terms of international crude oil, on July 14, the price of international crude oil futures rebounded after bottoming out and closed down slightly. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $95.78 / barrel, down US $0.52 or 0.5%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was $99.10 / barrel, down $0.47 or 0.5%. WTI once fell to $90 in the session, and then almost recovered all the losses. The market is concerned about the rate hike of the Federal Reserve, which raises concerns about curbing oil demand.

In terms of calcium carbide, the average price of calcium carbide last Friday was 3850 yuan / ton, and this Friday was 3833.33 yuan / ton. The price fell by 0.43% during the week. The factory prices of calcium carbide manufacturers were mostly stable this week, and the prices of some enterprises fell. The price of blue carbon in the upstream fell slightly, the cost support weakened, the PVC market in the downstream fell slightly, and the demand for calcium carbide weakened. It is expected that in the short term, the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China will temporarily stabilize and consolidate.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

PVC analysts of business agency believe that the spot price of PVC continued to fall this week. At present, the demand of PVC spot market is light. The downstream is more wait-and-see, cautious in order taking, and the transaction atmosphere is general. Futures prices fell today, dampening sentiment in the spot market. It is expected that the PVC market will operate weakly and stably in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the trend of the domestic rare earth market price index fell this week, and the domestic rare earth industry continued to decline. On July 10, the rare earth index was 829 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 17.68% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and up 205.90% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

This week, the price of products in the domestic light rare earth market continued to fall, and the trend of praseodymium and neodymium in the mainstream rare earth market fell back. In terms of products:

It can be seen from the product price trend chart that the prices of domestic metal neodymium, neodymium oxide, praseodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium alloy and praseodymium neodymium oxide continue to decline, and the price trend of metal praseodymium is temporarily stable. As of the 11th, the price of neodymium oxide in rare earth in China was 942500 yuan / ton, and the price fell by 2.33% this week; The price of neodymium was 1.17 million yuan / ton, down 1.27%; The price of praseodymium oxide was 947500 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 2.07%; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 887500 yuan / ton, down 3.79% this week; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy was 1.095 million yuan / ton, a decrease of 3.10%; The price of praseodymium metal is 1.23 million yuan / ton, and the price trend is temporarily stable. This week, the domestic rare earth market continued to decline.

The price trend of the domestic rare earth market fell, the recent downstream procurement was not active, and the number of new orders was relatively small. This week, the market trend of praseodymium and neodymium products fell, the wait-and-see mood of magnetic material enterprises deepened, and the purchase intention was weak. Due to the normal supply of mainstream products such as praseodymium and neodymium oxide in some large groups, some small waste recycling enterprises are affected by the shortage of waste supply, and the raw material inventory is insufficient to reduce production. Magnetic material enterprises are mostly distributed in Zhejiang. Affected by the epidemic in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, the demand for orders of downstream new energy vehicles, electric two wheeled vehicles and other vehicles has shrunk, the demand for spot procurement is weak, and the on-site prices have fallen slightly. The downstream demand side has not been significantly improved, the procurement demand is limited, the market negotiation atmosphere is general, and the market price of light rare earth praseodymium and neodymium is mainly declining. This week, the price of praseodymium and neodymium products continued to fall. Separation enterprises took the initiative to reduce their offers, and purchased cautiously. Traders offered actively, and some merchants intended to ship at a profit. The purchase intention of metal plants is not high, and the mentality is waiting for the future, and the market trend of light rare earth is declining.

The national environmental protection supervision is still continuing. Rare earth is purchased on demand. At present, the inventory of neodymium oxide praseodymium has not changed much. Affected by the sentiment of buying up or not, the price trend on the floor has declined slightly. According to statistics, the demand for new energy vehicles increased. The data released by the China Association of automobile manufacturers showed that in May 2022, China’s automobile production and sales reached 1.926 million and 1.862 million respectively, with a month on month increase of 59.7% and 57.6% respectively, and a year-on-year decrease of 5.7% and 12.6% respectively. Automobile production and sales rose sharply. Recently, the demand in the field of new energy was poor, the domestic light rare earth market continued to decline, and the domestic heavy rare earth market price fell slightly.

It can be seen from the trend chart that the price of dysprosium Series in China fell. As of the 11th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.415 million yuan / ton, and the price fell by 2.62% this week; Dysprosium ferroalloy price was 2.415 million yuan / ton, and the price trend fell by 1.23%; The price of dysprosium metal was 3.18 million yuan / ton, down 1.24% this week; The price trend of domestic terbium is mainly declining. The price of domestic terbium oxide is 13.75 million yuan / ton, and the price of metal terbium is 17.55 million yuan / ton. The price of heavy rare earths fell slightly, and the leading magnetic material factory purchased on demand, which made the domestic heavy rare earth market fall slightly. The raw material inventory of separation enterprises in the areas where light rare earth mines are used in Sichuan and other places decreased. The reduction of this part of supply had little impact on the operating rate of separation plants in the areas where light rare earth mines are used. However, recently, with the epidemic being controlled, production enterprises have started gradually, the supply side has eased, and the rare earth market atmosphere continues to be flat, Downstream magnetic material enterprises just need to follow up as planned, and their mood is more cautious. However, Myanmar’s exports are limited, and the global supply of rare earth is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas next to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great impact on products in the domestic heavy rare earth market, and the price of heavy rare earth in the market fell slightly.

In addition, the state policy supports the rare earth market. The first batch of Rare Earth total amount control indicators in 2022 are in line with expectations, and the industry pattern continues to be optimized. The Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources issued the first batch of Rare Earth total amount control indicators in 2022, of which the mining indicators and smelting separation indicators are 100800 tons and 97200 tons respectively. The increase of the index is in line with expectations, and the country is still relatively restrained in releasing the rare earth supply index. In 2022, the first batch of ore indicators / smelting separation indicators were all +20% year-on-year, with a growth rate lower than that of the first batch in 2021 (year-on-year +27.3%/27.6%), and it is expected that the overall supply and demand of rare earth will remain tight in 22 years. The index increment is still concentrated on light rare earth. Among the mining indicators in 2022, rock type rare earths (mainly light rare earths) were 89310 tons, up +23.2% year-on-year, and ionic rare earths were 11490 tons, flat year-on-year. It is expected that the increase concentrated on light rare earths will be a long-term trend, and the domestic rare earth market will still be supported in the long run.

The sustainable development of new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioning in the downstream of rare earth, coupled with the recent resumption of production of terminal factories, the orders of upstream magnetic material enterprises have not improved. Even if the government has issued policies such as halving the purchase tax, the consumption of terminal new energy vehicles will be boosted in the later stage. Business community analyst Chen Ling predicts that the short-term downstream procurement is not active, and the domestic rare earth market price may continue to decline slightly.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of July 13, 2022, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was 6833 yuan / ton, which was 833 yuan / ton higher than that on July 1, 2022 (the reference price of dimethyl carbonate was 6000 yuan / ton), or 13.89%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business agency that in the first ten days of July, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market ushered in an upward trend. The overall supply of dimethyl carbonate Market decreased, the factory inventory was low, and the pressure on the supply side was reduced. Since the beginning of July, the quoted prices of dimethyl carbonate manufacturers have been continuously adjusted upward, and the market focus of dimethyl carbonate has been constantly closer. In terms of downstream demand, with the gradual recovery of downstream electrolyte and related industries, the demand for dimethyl carbonate is relatively stable, and the support of the demand side is also gradually strengthened. As of July 13, the domestic ex factory price of dimethyl carbonate was around 6600-7000 yuan / ton. Compared with the beginning of the month, the cumulative increase was 600-1000 yuan / ton, an increase of nearly 14%. At present, the trading atmosphere on the floor is good, and the market as a whole is running well.

In terms of upstream propylene oxide, recently (7.4-7.8), the propylene oxide market fell this week. Recently, the raw propylene market has been consolidated at a low level, with general cost support. The supply side is mainly stable. Factory shipments were good at the beginning of the week, and the market was pressureless. As the enthusiasm for downstream procurement weakened, the market atmosphere turned weak, and the market stalemate was weak. On the 8th, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong was around 9300-9400 yuan / ton. The downstream procurement mentality was cautious, and the market trading atmosphere was light.

Future trend analysis

At present, the demand side of dimethyl carbonate is performing well. Supported by the positive demand side, the atmosphere for new orders in the market is more active. The dimethyl carbonate data analyst of business society believes that in the short term, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market is mostly strong, and the specific trend also needs to pay more attention to the news changes in the supply and demand side.