1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of aniline has stopped falling and increased this week. On June 9th, the market price of aniline was 225 yuan/ton, and on June 13th it was 7325 yuan/ton, with a 1.38% increase during the period and a 39.8% decrease compared to the same period last year.
2、 Analysis and Review
This week, the aniline market in Shandong has been boosted by costs, with prices rising significantly and positively. During the week, crude oil rose strongly, driving the price of pure benzene to strengthen. Aniline’s low-priced delivery is smooth, with little inventory pressure. Driven by costs, the price of aniline has risen. Downstream demand is the main demand, and the buying potential is still acceptable.
Cost aspect: This week, pure benzene was driven by oil prices, with a strong upward trend in price. The average price at the beginning of the week was 5955 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 6170 yuan/ton, with a 3.55% increase during the cycle.
3、 Future expectations
The current trading atmosphere for aniline is still good. With the sharp rise in crude oil prices on Friday and the boost from the cost side, it is expected that the aniline market will operate strongly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from June 2nd to 6th, the domestic ethanol price rose to 5447 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 3.49% and a year-on-year decrease of 9.51%. Domestic ethanol market prices remain stable and organized. Most regions have stable quotes from enterprises, with a focus on first-time transactions.

In terms of cost, the market corn prices continue to operate steadily. There has been no significant change in the quotations of port traders, and the new season wheat continues to be listed. Enterprises are paying more attention to the price of wheat, and wheat and corn are basically priced the same in some feed factories. The substitution advantage of wheat is significant. The cost of ethanol is influenced by bearish factors.
There are unlikely to be significant favorable factors in the supply of ethanol.
On the demand side, from the demand side, the demand for Baijiu fluctuates little, and the downstream stock of chemical industry needs to be replenished. The short-term demand for ethanol has a moderate impact.
In the future forecast, the market supply will increase due to the recovery of Hongzhan Jixian equipment, and the supply of fermented ethanol will increase, while the demand will basically maintain basic demand. Business Society’s ethanol analyst predicts that the domestic ethanol market will consolidate and operate in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of May 31st, the average production price of ethyl acetate was 5456.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month price of 5516.67 yuan/ton, with an overall decline of 1.09%. The main reason for the weak downstream demand, hindered enterprise shipments, limited raw material support, and lack of market benefits has led to a weak downward adjustment in the price of ethyl acetate.

Market analysis: This month, the ethyl acetate market has been weak and volatile. After the holiday, the price of ethyl acetate decreased significantly, mainly due to the decline in raw material acetic acid prices, negative cost factors, and weak downstream demand for ethyl acetate. Under the guidance of news, the price of ethyl acetate fell; In the second half of the year, the price of ethyl acetate fluctuated. Although the upstream market rose and the cost side was supported, the demand enthusiasm was not high, market trading was poor, and the mentality of the industry was conflicted. The price of ethyl acetate fluctuated slightly.
According to the Business Society Acetic Acid Commodity Market Analysis System, as of May 31st, the price was 2700 yuan/ton, which is the same as the acetic acid price of 2700 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The price range of acetic acid fluctuates, the cost support of ethyl acetate is limited, the profit of ethyl acetate is low, the pressure on enterprise shipments is high, and the market transaction center continues to decline.
Looking at the future market, the ethyl acetate market is currently operating weakly and steadily, with downstream observation being the main focus. Market transactions are limited, supply side supply volume is increasing, sales pressure is increasing, and there is a lack of favorable market conditions. It is expected that the price of ethyl acetate will continue to operate weakly in the future, and specific attention will be paid to changes in supplier equipment and downstream follow-up.

In May, domestic liquid ammonia continued to decline, with a slight slowdown in the decline compared to the previous month. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the decline in liquid ammonia in Shandong Province in May was 5.88%. As of the end of the month, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong region is between 2200-2350 yuan/ton.

The dual high supply pressure of internal and external sources of goods is increasing and decreasing
From a supply side perspective, the supply-demand structure continues to be in an oversupply situation. As we enter May, the operating rate continues to increase. Previously, maintenance companies have resumed work one after another, coupled with an increase in ammonia conversion capacity. The inventory pressure of enterprises is high, and in order to alleviate the pressure, factory prices continue to be lowered. Furthermore, the import volume has continued to increase compared to April, with low-priced foreign sources impacting the domestic market. Supply is in an oversupply situation. During the month, major factories in Shandong have repeatedly lowered the ex factory price of liquid ammonia, with a range of 200-300 yuan/ton. From the demand side perspective, in the traditional off-season, downstream industries such as urea and compound fertilizers lack support, and industrial demand remains rigid with little fluctuation. Downstream weakness has further exacerbated the supply-demand imbalance.
The cooling of the industrial chain is mainly due to the weakness of the upstream and downstream
From the perspective of the liquid ammonia industry chain chart, the performance of the upstream and downstream environment of liquid ammonia is weak, and the upstream natural gas continues to be weak, with a monthly decline of 4.26%. Especially in the downstream sector, it is still generally cold, with more declines and less gains. Formic acid has the largest decline, at 21.05%, while urea is still lukewarm. This is mainly reflected in weak downstream demand and the off-season in agriculture. Currently, the increase in compound fertilizer production has not met market expectations. The terminal production in the industrial demand field is also showing a downward trend. The market is generally dominated by rigid demand, and the demand side is restricting the ammonia market from getting out of the slump.
From the perspective of urea, the urea market has been sluggish. According to Shengyi Society, urea slightly rebounded in May, with a growth rate of 0.91%. The rebound in urea prices is mainly due to the increase in the amount of ammonia converted by enterprises, which further exacerbates the contradiction of excess liquid ammonia. Downstream procurement has not significantly increased, and the market performance has remained calm.
Market forecast:
Business analysts believe that from a supply side perspective, the market supply and demand pressure will not decrease next month, and the impact will tend to weaken as the equipment will be on and off. The mentality of enterprises to raise prices may be reflected, and the downward space in the later stage may be compressed. In addition, there may be an increase in ammonia conversion enterprises in the later stage, and there is a trend of increasing ammonia production. The supply and demand pressure in June should not be underestimated.
On the demand side, in the short term, demand remains stable, and expectations for the later period may be weak. On the one hand, during the agricultural off-season, trading is light. In addition, industrial demand remains dominated by rigid demand, and overall, downstream liquid ammonia may continue to drag down its price recovery in the later stage.
Taking all factors into consideration, the price of liquid ammonia is expected to hover at a low level in the short term, and in the later stage of supply and demand competition, the ammonia market may enter a volatile range, further narrowing the range of price fluctuations. We need to pay attention to the manufacturer’s equipment start-up news in the later stage.

With the weakening of raw material support and weak demand, the price of polyester staple fiber began to decline in mid May. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of May 30th, the average market price of domestic polyester staple fiber (1.4D * 38mm) was 6511 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.21% from May 16th.

The cost side oil price support is limited, and crude oil prices continue to fluctuate narrowly. The market is waiting for the results of the OPEC+meeting. As of May 29th, the settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $60.94 per barrel, and the settlement price of the August Brent crude oil futures contract was $63.35 per barrel.
In late May, PTA plants were gradually restarted, and Sichuan Energy Investment has already restarted. Taihua has some expectations of restarting, and overall production has increased. However, the maintenance plan for PTA in the later stage has not been clearly defined, coupled with strong production reduction sentiment from downstream polyester factories, the marginal weakening of PTA supply and demand has put significant pressure on prices.
At present, both domestic and foreign trade orders at the terminal are showing signs of weakness. As the Dragon Boat Festival holiday approaches, downstream expectations for the post holiday market are pessimistic, and the enthusiasm for receiving goods is not high. Yarn factories maintain their demand for essential purchases, and their willingness to stock up is not high. In terms of orders, most summer orders are nearing completion, and a small number of autumn and winter fabric orders have been placed. The export market remains uncertain due to trade frictions and other factors, resulting in overall weak demand performance.
Business analysts believe that in the short term, the fundamentals of polyester staple fibers are weak, and factories have a strong willingness to ship. June is the traditional off-season for the textile industry, with weak orders from downstream yarn mills and weaving factories. Weak demand is the main reason for suppressing the rise in short fiber prices. At the same time, it is still necessary to pay attention to the support brought by cost changes such as crude oil and PTA. Overall, it is expected that the prices of polyester staple fibers will experience weak fluctuations and adjustments in June.

In May, the price of ethylene glycol stopped falling and rebounded

The price of ethylene glycol will stop falling and rebound in May 2025. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of May 29th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4521.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.39% compared to the average price of 4331.67 yuan/ton on May 1st.
In terms of imported ethylene glycol, on May 29, 2025, the spot contract trading of ethylene glycol at the port was good, the futures market rebounded, the buying follow-up was active, the basis was strong, and the trading range was 4450-4510 yuan/ton. In terms of basis, the price range for this week’s spot contracts is 138-145 before the night trading session, and the daily range for this week’s spot contracts is+146 to+160 during the morning trading session; In the afternoon, the daily operating range of spot contracts for this week is+148 to+155; As of 14:35, this week’s contract basis quotation is+153 to+155, next week’s contract basis quotation is+152 to+155, June’s contract basis quotation is+148 to+153, July’s contract basis quotation is+120 to+125, and August’s contract basis quotation is+85 to+95.
The spot price of domestic coal to polyester grade ethylene glycol (loose water, tax included, self pickup) per unit is 4050-4150 yuan/ton.
In terms of external ethylene glycol, as of May 29th, the landed price of ethylene glycol in China is 522 US dollars/ton, and the landed price of ethylene glycol in Southeast Asia is 535 US dollars/ton.
Port inventory slightly decreased in May
From January to mid February, there was a significant accumulation of ethylene glycol inventory in the port, and from March to May, the port inventory fluctuated horizontally. On May 26, 2025, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 612100 tons, a decrease of 88800 tons from the total inventory of 700900 tons on April 28; Compared to the total inventory of 697800 tons on April 3rd, a decrease of 85700 tons; Compared to the total inventory of 671900 tons on March 31st, it decreased by 59800 tons.

Market Overview

In early May, the dichloromethane market in Shandong was under pressure and fell. Accumulated inventory in enterprises, urgent demand for purchasing on the demand side, sluggish market trading, manufacturers continuing to offer discounts on shipments, and dichloromethane reaching a five-year low again. On May 13th, the average price of dichloromethane dispersed water in Shandong region was 2035 yuan/ton. Subsequently, the tariff policies of China and the United States, as well as domestic financial policies, stimulated market vitality and boosted confidence in market recovery. In late May, market trading improved slightly, and inventory pressure on enterprises weakened. In addition, some enterprises underwent maintenance and reduced their burdens. As the holiday approached, downstream and trading companies predicted that it would be difficult to fall again, so they prepared in advance to replenish their inventory, resulting in a significant increase in orders and a strong market trend.
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of May 28th, the average price of dichloromethane dispersed water in Shandong Province was 2245 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.42% from the beginning of the month.
analysis of influencing factors
Supply side: Maintenance support vs. relaxed pattern
Device dynamics: The overall operating rate of the industry remains at around 80%, and the supply is relatively stable. It is reported that the supply will ease in June, supporting the upward trend of dichloromethane.
Enterprise inventory: With the recovery of market sentiment and the strengthening of downstream buying sentiment, there is currently no pressure on enterprise inventory.
Policy Trend: After the Shandong explosion, chemical safety production inspections have become stricter, which may affect the operation of facilities.
Cost side: The prices of raw materials methanol and liquid chlorine are decreasing
Methanol: Overall production remains at a high level of fluctuation, with an increasing number of foreign ships arriving at ports in coastal areas, and port inventory may gradually enter the accumulation channel. Traditional downstream demand continues to be weak. As of May 27th, the spot price of methanol in Shandong was reported at 2253.75 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 7.63%, which weakened the cost support for dichloromethane.
Liquid chlorine: The weak operation of liquid chlorine prices in Shandong further weakens the cost support of dichloromethane.
Demand side: Supported by refrigerant peak season, export increment offsets weak domestic demand
Refrigerant peak season: June is the peak season for air conditioning production, with a 15% month on month increase in production scheduling. Refrigerant companies maintain high operating rates, R32 prices remain firm, and the purchase volume of dichloromethane is steadily increasing.
Export resilience: The export volume in April increased by 10.8% year-on-year, and the demand for overseas replenishment continued to be released. The reduction of tariffs between China and the United States has benefited the export of chemical products, and the demand in Southeast Asia and the Middle East has increased. It is expected that exports will continue to grow year-on-year in June.
Market forecast: Maintenance support, it is expected that the price of dichloromethane will be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the reduction of equipment load in the future.

The market for anhydrous hydrogen fluoride is temporarily stable this week. The mainstream ex factory price including tax is about 11350-11500 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 550 yuan/ton from last month. The prices of raw materials have declined, and the demand for downstream refrigerants is generally average. It is expected to maintain stable operation in the later stage. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of May 23, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyi Society was 11883.33 yuan/ton, which was the same as the price at the beginning of this month.

Raw material side: Domestic fluorite prices have fallen this week, while sulfuric acid prices have fluctuated slightly. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of May 23rd, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s fluorite was 3550.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -4.22% compared to the beginning of this month (3706.25 yuan/ton).
On the demand side: The downstream refrigerant market is still good, and the terminal policy of the refrigerant industry is being strengthened. The demand is expected to achieve substantial improvement. Fluorine chemical enterprises within quota control have strong confidence in the refrigerant market to raise prices. Currently, the pace of high price procurement is relatively slow, but the industry inventory is transmitted in a positive and orderly manner. Due to high prices, the enthusiasm for stocking up at the terminal is low, and upstream products are mainly purchased on demand.
Market forecast: The price of raw material fluorite will decline, and the downstream refrigerant procurement atmosphere will be quiet. It is expected that the market price of hydrofluoric acid will remain stable in the near future, and more attention should be paid to the news of leading enterprises and market supply and demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from May 19th to 23rd, the average price of BDO in China increased from 7950 yuan/ton to 8078 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.62% during the period, a month on month increase of 1.87%, and a year-on-year decrease of 10.52%. The domestic BDO market is stable with a narrow upward trend. Partial device maintenance, reduced industry capacity utilization, and increased supply side support. Manufacturers actively support the market by implementing a policy of reducing sales. Downstream follow-up on demand, trading on the high end of spot small orders, and narrow upward exploration of market focus.

On the supply side, following the maintenance of the Xinjiang Xinye plant, the Dongjing Biotechnology plant also underwent a major inspection, resulting in a further decrease in industry capacity utilization and a reduction in the supply of available goods in the market. At the same time, transportation in Xinjiang has been slightly slow in recent times, and the industry has suffered long-term losses. Suppliers have actively adjusted their sales policies in June to support the market. The supply of BDO is affected by favorable factors.
On the cost side, the sudden increase in supply of raw material calcium carbide has become the main factor causing the decline in calcium carbide prices. The domestic methanol market is running weakly. As of 10:00 am on May 23rd, the domestic methanol Taicang price is 2304 yuan/ton. The weak prices of raw materials such as calcium carbide and methanol have been consolidated, and the cost of BDO has been affected by unfavorable factors.
On the demand side, there is no significant change in downstream demand, and multiple industries are under cost pressure, resulting in limited acceptance of high raw material prices. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.
In the future market forecast, some devices will continue to be under maintenance, and the supply side will continue to support downstream demand follow-up. However, under cost pressure, resistance to high raw material prices will suppress the increase in raw material prices. Business Society BDO analysts predict that the domestic BDO market is fluctuating.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market for locally refined petroleum coke has continued to rise this week. As of May 19th, the price of locally refined petroleum coke in the Shandong market was 2275.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.82% from 2212.50 yuan/ton on May 12th.
This week, the overall crude oil market has been on the rise. The United States has increased its oil restrictions on a certain country, as well as the impact of the Israeli Palestinian conflict and the intention of China and the United States to negotiate. The international oil price trend has risen, and with the easing of tariffs between China and the United States, the crude oil market is mainly volatile.
This week, the shipment of petroleum coke from local refineries has been good, downstream procurement is active, and coupled with low inventory of petroleum coke in some refineries, the price of petroleum coke continues to rise. This week, the trading volume of petroleum coke at the port was average, with high port inventory and downstream enterprises maintaining essential procurement.
Recently, the market for calcined coke has remained stable, with limited downstream demand and a consolidation of the calcined coke market.
Market forecast: Currently, the overall supply of petroleum coke market is relatively sufficient, with downstream essential procurement being the main focus. It is expected that petroleum coke will be mainly sorted out in the near future.