According to the data monitored by the business community, the prices of industrial and battery grade lithium carbonate continued to rise this week. On September 15, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 494000 yuan/ton, which was 0.82% higher than the average price at the beginning of the week (on September 11, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 490000 yuan/ton). On September 15, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 510000 yuan/ton, up 1.19% compared with the average price at the beginning of the week (on September 11, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 504000 yuan/ton).

According to the observation of market changes, lithium carbonate prices showed an upward trend this week. In terms of market supply, with the completion of power rationing and mid year maintenance in Sichuan, the commencement of lithium salt plants has risen. However, due to the shortage of supply in the early stage, in the near future, long orders in the early stage of delivery are mainly used. With the gradual release of the epidemic situation in Qinghai, some enterprises in Qinghai have delivered a small amount of goods, but the market supply is still tight.

In terms of demand, the downstream demand gap has expanded, the market procurement volume has been increasing, and the market is in a state of weak supply and strong demand. With the arrival of the fourth quarter, downstream manufacturers are actively stocking up and purchasing, and the market has entered a stage where one product is hard to find, which has driven the price of lithium carbonate up.

The downstream lithium hydroxide price remained stable, the lithium oxide market was at a high level, and the lithium carbonate price rose, driving the lithium hydroxide market significantly. The market supply was increased compared with the early stage, but the manufacturers mainly made up long orders, and the spot supply was tight. The downstream inquiry and procurement were active, and the focus of the lithium hydroxide market negotiation was at a high level.

The downstream price of lithium iron phosphate remained stable, with a small range of price fluctuations. The downstream just needed to purchase, the purchasing atmosphere was general, and the overall market was stable. At present, the manufacturer’s supply was still tight, and the supply side was obviously insufficient. The contract customers were mainly responsible for ordering and shipping, and the number of new orders was limited.

Lithium carbonate analysts from the business community believe that with the arrival of the fourth quarter, the demand for downstream market procurement has increased, but the market is bullish. The manufacturers are reluctant to sell lithium carbonate, and there are relatively few spot goods on the market. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate at a high level in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of September 13, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 10200.00 yuan/ton, 2.86% higher than that of last Wednesday (September 7), 14.82% higher than that of August 13, and 9.47% lower than that of last three months.

Recently (9.7-9.13), the market of propylene oxide has risen steadily. Recently, the market price of raw propylene has risen slightly, and the cost has some support. Before the festival, the on-site devices are mainly stable, the supply is tight, the factory shipments are smooth, the demand side follows up generally, the market is relatively strong before the festival, the market returns after the festival, the market shipments are stable, and the wait-and-see attitude is mainstream. On the 13th, the mainstream quotation of the propylene oxide market in Shandong was around 10400-10500 yuan/ton.

The upstream propylene, according to the data monitoring of the business community, on September 13, the reference price of propylene was 7350.60, up 3.52% compared with September 1 (7100.60).

The downstream propylene glycol, according to the monitoring data of the business community, the reference price of propylene glycol was 9900.00 on September 13, an increase of 7.03% compared with September 1 (9250.00).

The epoxy propane analysts of the business community believe that the current cost support is fair, the supply side is not under temporary pressure, and the demand side is flat. It is expected that in the short term, the epoxy propane market will be dominated by deadlock, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

Recent calcium carbide price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in northwest China fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China dropped by 0.89% from 3733.33 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 3700.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a year-on-year decrease of 31.69%. On September 12, the carbide commodity index was 96.94, unchanged from yesterday, down 54.32% from the highest point of 212.23 (2021-10-26) in the cycle, and up 74.70% from the lowest point of 55.49 on March 14, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The upstream cost support is insufficient, and the demand of downstream manufacturers is general

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in northwest China fell slightly this week.

The price of the upstream semicarbon market fluctuated in a narrow range, while the price of the downstream PVC market rose slightly. The PVC market price this week rose from 6447.14 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 6504.29 yuan/ton at the end of this week, an increase of 0.89% and a year-on-year decrease of 33.37%. The PVC market price rose slightly. Downstream customers were not enthusiastic about calcium carbide procurement. Downstream PVC market had a negative impact on calcium carbide price.

Downstream market fluctuates in a narrow range, and calcium carbide may fall in the future

In the middle of September, calcium carbide market fell mainly due to narrow fluctuations. The price of raw material blue carbon is weak, the cost support of calcium carbide is weak, the downstream PVC market fluctuates in a narrow range, the downstream demand is general, and the rising power of calcium carbide is insufficient. In mid September, carbide prices in northwest China may fall in a narrow range.

Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic hydrochloric acid price is temporarily stable this week, with the average market price of 163.33 yuan / ton. Compared with the same period last year, it decreased by 44.32% year-on-year. On September 4, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 42.98, which was the same as yesterday, down 68.83% from the highest point 137.89 (October 26, 2021) in the cycle, and up 139.04% from the lowest point 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

Insufficient upstream support and weak downstream procurement

Judging from the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price is temporarily stable this week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chains of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market has been consolidated at a low level, and the cost support is insufficient. The downstream polyaluminum chloride market price was adjusted at a low level, with a price of 2095.00 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 19.11%; The market price of ammonium chloride fell slightly, from 1145.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 1057.50 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 7.64%. On the whole, the upstream support is insufficient, and the enthusiasm of downstream procurement is weakened.

Future forecast

In the first ten days of September, the market price of hydrochloric acid mainly fell in a narrow range. The upstream liquid chlorine market has been consolidated at a low level recently, and the cost support is insufficient. The downstream polyaluminum chloride and ammonium chloride market have declined slightly, and the downstream purchasing intention is general. Business analysts believe that hydrochloric acid has suffered a small shock and decline recently.

According to the data monitored by the business association, the PP market rose in a narrow range in early September, and the spot price of each drawing brand rose more or fell less. As of September 5, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8083.33 yuan / ton, up or down by + 0.83% compared with the average price at the beginning of last week.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: on the upstream side, the propylene market was collated horizontally this week. Last month, the focus of spot prices continued to move downward, and the staged rebound was insufficient. The current supply pressure is OK, but the on-site demand is generally supported, and there is no centralized stock preparation operation. For the next traditional peak season, there will be limited improvement in the mentality of operators. It is expected that propylene’s rising resistance will remain, and the market may continue to sort out and operate.

The propylene price was flat on the whole, and the PP cost side was generally supported last week. In terms of industry load, the operating rate of PP polymerization enterprises has changed a little recently, and the proportion of wire drawing materials is not high. Last week, the inventory fell by a narrow margin, and the supply pressure was OK. Downstream demand has increased slightly, and power and production restrictions of some terminal factories have ended, but most of the goods are scattered small orders. Traders’ mentality is general, and the offer follows the market. It is expected that the spot market of PP wire drawing materials will be strong in the short term.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business agency, as of September 5, the spot price of domestic fiber PP was weak. The mainstream offer price of Z30S (fiber) from domestic manufacturers and traders is about 8050 yuan / ton, up or down by + 0.84% compared with the average price at the beginning of last week, with a year-on-year decline of – 5.11%. This week, the load of the main downstream non-woven fabric enterprises of PP fiber materials was stable as a whole, and the demand and operation of end enterprises were limited. The digestion speed of downstream products such as non-woven fabrics is general, enterprises reduce prices and ship goods, and the replenishment of fiber PP is biased towards bulk orders. Due to the lack of confidence of the market in the macro economic pattern and the heavy wait-and-see mood in the industrial chain, it is expected that the fiber market will have a limited increase in the short term.

In terms of meltblown materials, this week’s meltblown PP market was collated horizontally. As of September 5, the average quotation of domestic meltblown material sample enterprises monitored by the business agency was about 9166.67 yuan / ton, which was the same as the average price at the beginning of last week, with a year-on-year decrease of – 0.36%. In terms of international health events, the current situation in various countries is still not optimistic, and the recent explosive development in neighboring Japan. There is a rebound in some regions of China, but the overall epidemic prevention pressure is not strong. Medical meltblown cloth materials are in the off-season of consumption, and there is no obvious boost in domestic and foreign demand, which does not support the spot price well. The stock of meltblown materials in the market is sufficient, and the saturation of domestic meltblown materials and cloth enterprises is high. It is expected that the recent market of meltblown PP will still be dominated by weak operation.

Future forecast

PP analysts of business club believe that the polypropylene market rose narrowly last week, the raw material propylene market was sideways, and the cost side of PP was generally supported. The demand of end-users is slowly recovering, and the offers of merchants follow the market. From the survey results and market reaction, the industry is not confident about whether the demand in the traditional peak season is on schedule and sufficient due to the impact of the economic environment. It is expected that the PP market will rise or be hindered in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average price of PS ordinary materials at the beginning of this week was 10583 yuan / ton, and the average price of PS ordinary materials at the weekend was 10550 yuan / ton, down 0.31% and 3.51% compared with the same period of last year.

2、 Market analysis

At present, the PS (polystyrene) market offer is slightly down, styrene is strong, downstream purchasing interest is low, merchants’ shipments are under pressure, and they continue to yield profits. Reference of mainstream brand excluding tax quotation: Zhenjiang Qimei pg33 quoted 9680 yuan / ton, Taiwan Taihua 5250 quoted 11290 yuan / ton, Ningbo Taihua 535n quoted 9850 yuan / ton, Shanghai Secco 123p quoted 9670 yuan / ton, Thailand Petrochemical 150 quoted 10800 yuan / ton, 650 quoted 10070 yuan / ton; Guangzhou Petrochemical 525 reported 9200 yuan / ton.

Crude oil continues to decline, styrene is strong, petrochemical manufacturers are operating at a high price, and the supply of some materials in the market has increased. It is not excluded that merchants sell at a discount. The mainstream price of GPPS (polyphenylene sulfide) in the East China market is 9600-10900 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of hips (polystyrene) is 10050-11600 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

At present, the downstream trading atmosphere of PS is cold, and it is expected that the domestic PS (polystyrene) market will be adjusted in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of August 30, the average price of PMMA for domestic general transparent grade excellent products was 16450.00 yuan / ton. In August, the PMMA market was mainly in a narrow downward trend, with an overall decline of 1.94% in August and a decrease of 1.94% compared with the price at the beginning of the month. At present, the mainstream price in the market is 16500 yuan / ton. The overall market supply and demand are balanced, and the negotiation focus is stable.

In the first ten days of July, as of August 9, the average price of domestic general transparent grade premium PMMA was 16475.00 yuan / ton this week. The price of this week was narrow and strong. Compared with the price of the same period last week, the price fluctuation range was not large. The quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remained at about 16500 yuan / ton. The overall PMMA market price remained stable. The focus of negotiation was stable. The price range this week was not large, and the overall market supply and demand were balanced, This week, the average price of domestic general transparent grade premium PMMA was 16875.00 yuan / ton. The overall market was mainly stable, and the price change was not obvious. The quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remained at about 16500 yuan / ton, and merchants actively shipped and gave away orders. Compared with last week’s price, the price of PMMA was stable, the overall supply and demand were balanced, and the purchase was just needed. At present, the focus of negotiation is stable and the supply side is normal.

In the middle of July, as of August 17, the average price of domestic general transparent grade premium PMMA was 16450.00 yuan / ton this week. This week, the price was narrow and strong. Compared with the price in the same period last week, the price fluctuation range was not large. The quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remained around 16500 yuan / ton. The overall PMMA market price remained stable. The focus of negotiation was stable. The price range this week was not large. The overall market supply and demand were balanced, This week, the average price of domestic general transparent grade premium PMMA was 16450.00 yuan / ton. The overall market was mainly stable, and the price change was not obvious. The quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remained at about 16500 yuan / ton, and merchants actively shipped and gave away orders. Compared with last week’s price, the price of PMMA was stable, the overall supply and demand were balanced, and the purchase was just needed. At present, the focus of negotiation is stable and the supply side is normal.

In late July, as of August 23, the average price of domestic general transparent grade premium PMMA was 16425.00 yuan / ton this week. The price of this week was narrow and strong. Compared with the price of the same period last week, the price fluctuation range was small. The quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remained at about 16500 yuan / ton. The overall PMMA market price remained stable. The focus of negotiation was stable. The price range of this week was small. The overall market supply and demand were balanced, This week, the average price of PMMA for domestic general transparent grade excellent products is 16425.00 yuan / ton. The overall market is stable, and the price change is not obvious. The quotation range of mainstream manufacturers is around 16500 yuan / ton. Merchants are actively shipping and giving up orders. Compared with last week, the price of PMMA is stable, the overall supply and demand is balanced, and the purchase is just needed. At present, the negotiation focus is stable and the supply side is normal.

Rubber and plastic index: on August 29, the rubber and plastic index was 697 points, up 1 point from yesterday, down 34.25% from the highest point 1060 points (2012-03-14) in the cycle, and up 32.01% from the lowest point 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

PMMA analysts of business agency believe that it is expected that the white carbon black market will run smoothly in September, with a small fluctuation range. (if you want to get more commodity information and master commodity prices, you are welcome to subscribe to the commodities of the business club through the official account of the business club. The market is an opportunity.).

In August, the domestic cyclohexanone market continued to decline. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average market price of domestic cyclohexanone at the beginning of the month was 10140 yuan / ton, and the average market price of domestic cyclohexanone at the end of the month was 9520 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 6.11% within the month and a year-on-year decrease of 11.19%.

In August, the cost, supply and demand of cyclohexanone were weak, and the price was still falling unilaterally.

At the beginning of the month, the domestic cyclohexanone market fell unilaterally. The prices of raw material pure benzene and main downstream caprolactam fell. At the same time, the supply and demand of the market were weak, and the overall atmosphere was weak.

In the middle of May, the domestic cyclohexanone market continued to weaken in a narrow range, and the cost side lacked support. Due to the deviation of terminal demand, the downstream caprolactam market is weak and falling, the profit space is limited, and the demand for external mining is weak. However, the spot supply of cyclohexanone is small and the decline is relatively small.

At the end of September, the domestic cyclohexanone market continued to be low, and the raw material pure benzene was listed for two times, with a total reduction of 450 yuan / ton, falling to 7500 yuan / ton, lacking support in cost. At the same time, the downstream caprolactam supply is abundant and loss, and it needs to be followed up.

At the end of the month, the domestic cyclohexanone declined weakly, mainly due to the sluggish downstream demand.

Summary of domestic cyclohexanone market as of August 31:

Region, price

East China. 9400-9500 yuan / ton cash delivery

In South China, 9600-9700 yuan / ton in cash

Shandong Province, 9100-9200 yuan / ton cash delivery

Raw material pure benzene: the market price of domestic pure benzene fell first and then rose. It rebounded in stages near the end of the month, and the market transaction atmosphere improved.

Downstream caprolactam: the spot market of caprolactam is basically stable, and there is no significant change in supply.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, 136 commodities rose in the first half of 2022 (1.1-6.30) in the list of commodity prices, mainly in the chemical sector (64 in total) and the agricultural and sideline sector (16 in total), and commodities with an increase of more than 5% were mainly concentrated in the chemical sector; The top three commodities with growth were butadiene (152.15%), lithium hydroxide (118.46%) and sulfur (89.80%). A total of 95 commodities declined month on month, mainly in the chemical industry (43 in total) and steel (15 in total), and commodities with a decline of more than 5% were mainly concentrated in the chemical industry; The top three commodities in terms of decline were electrolytic manganese (- 57.47%), magnesium (- 46.60%) and glycine (- 45.71%). The average increase or decrease in this half year was 6.53%.

The cost support is relatively stable, and the cyclohexanone analysts of the business community with weak supply and demand of cyclohexanone predict that the short-term cyclohexanone market is mainly weak.

Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business society, the domestic PA66 market rose in August, and the spot prices of various brands increased. As of August 30, the average ex factory price of PA66 medium viscosity injection molding grade sample enterprises of business agency was about 22250 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of + 7.23% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: on the upstream side, domestic adipic acid fell to a low point at the beginning of this month due to the impact of demand and news. Although the subsequent performance was weak, the market bottomed out and stabilized. At present, the industry load is low, and the inventory pressure of manufacturers is slightly relieved. The shipment of domestic adiponitrile was carried out step by step and began to replace some imported sources. At the end of the month, the price of hexanediamine was good, the supply of goods on the site was reduced, and the enterprises and merchants increased their offers.

The overall trend of the upstream raw material market is acceptable, especially the support of hexanediamine on the cost side of PA66 is higher. In terms of industrial operation rate, due to the continuous pressure on the profits of PA66 enterprises in the early stage, and the policies of power limitation and peak shift production in some regions this month, the current load level of domestic PA66 industry is low, the market spot supply shrinks, and the easing of supply pressure boosts the spot market. The inventory position of the port is acceptable, and the arrival volume of overseas goods is general. On the demand side, the current follow-up of terminal enterprises is biased towards just maintaining production, and the acceptance of high-priced goods is general. However, the traditional off-season is coming to an end, the demand of downstream factories is coming, the confidence of merchants is increasing, the shipment attempt is rising, the on-site transaction is general, and the supply of low-cost goods is decreasing.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the spot price of PA66 has risen this month. The price of raw materials is mixed, and the cost side of PA66 is mainly supported by its own diamine. The load of PA66 enterprises is low, the situation of excess supply in the early stage is improved, and the demand side takes goods generally. It is expected that PA66 will continue to rise in the short term due to the reduction of supply and the approaching of peak season.

1、 Price data

According to the data of the trade agency’s bulk list, the price of petroleum coke from local refiners increased slightly this week. On August 28, the average price of Shandong market was 4089.00 yuan / ton, up 0.62% from the price of 4064.00 yuan / ton on August 22.

On August 28, the petroleum coke commodity index was 318.03, which was the same as yesterday, down 22.18% from the highest point 408.70 in the cycle (2022-05-11), and up 375.45% from the lowest point 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 30, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of petroleum coke in the refinery increased slightly, the shipment of the refinery improved, the inventory was low, and the downstream procurement was mainly based on demand.

Upstream: international crude oil prices fluctuated and rose. According to the data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday, the stocks of crude oil and refined oil fell last week; At the same time, the market is still worried about the remarks made by the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) on the possibility of simultaneous production reduction after the return of Iranian oil to the market. The oil price is supported in the short term, and it is expected that the price of finished oil may rise in the later period.

Downstream: the calcined coke price remained stable as a whole this week; The market price of metal silicon has dropped sharply; The price of electrolytic aluminum in the downstream rose, and as of August 28, the price was 18733.33 yuan / ton; Downstream carbon enterprises mostly hold a wait-and-see attitude and mainly purchase on demand.

The petroleum coke analysts of business association believe that: the international crude oil surged this week, which was supported by the cost of petroleum coke; The downstream carbon enterprises mostly hold a wait-and-see attitude, mainly purchasing on demand. The petroleum coke shipment of the refinery has improved, and the inventory is low. It is expected that the price of locally refined petroleum coke may rise slightly in the near future.