1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of caustic soda fell this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price in Shandong was about 1132 yuan/ton. At the weekend, the average market price in Shandong was 1098 yuan/ton. The price fell 3%, 18.52% lower than the same period last year. On November 3, the caustic soda commodity index was 158.85, down 1.73 points from yesterday, down 40.16% from the peak of 265.47 (2021-10-27) in the cycle, and up 143.97% from the lowest point of 65.11 on October 9, 2020. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the survey data of the business cooperative, the domestic caustic soda price fell this week. At present, the average market price in Shandong is about 1050-1100 yuan/ton. The factory quotation of 32% liquid caustic soda mainstream in Hebei is about 1060-1300 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda on the market fell, and the supply remained at the early stage. Most of the main caustic soda enterprises have relatively stable production and sufficient supply of goods on the market, but the downstream market is mainly wait-and-see, and they are cautious in purchasing, so the actual delivery is average.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the 43rd week of 2022 (10.24-10.28), there was a total of 1 rising commodity, 3 falling commodity, and 1 zero rising commodity. The main commodities that rose were hydrochloric acid (3.71%); The main commodities falling were caustic soda (-11.21%), PVC (-2.54%) and calcium carbide (-0.42%). The average rise or fall this week was -2.09%.

Analysts from the business community believe that in the near future, the caustic soda price is weak, and the downstream aluminum oxide procurement demand is average, and more buying will go up rather than down. It is mainly wait-and-see operation and cautious procurement. It is comprehensively expected that the caustic soda will be weak next week, depending on the downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business cooperatives, aniline was stable and slightly moved this week. On October 28, the price of aniline was 14700 yuan/ton; On November 4, the price of aniline was 14625 yuan/ton, 0.51% lower than that of last week and 3.24% higher than that of the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

On the cost side, pure benzene: At the beginning of the week, the pure benzene inventory of East China ports rose to 73200 tons, and the import of pure benzene from ports is expected to increase in the future. Downstream market decline is the main trend, with strong resistance to high price pure benzene. In addition, the industry is short of the future pure benzene market, with general interest in market procurement, weak demand in the north, and strong factory willingness to ship. The supply side increased while the demand side declined, and the price fell continuously during the week. On Friday (November 4), the price of pure benzene was 6900-7050 yuan/ton (the average price was 6967 yuan/ton), 6.76% lower than that of last week and 8.57% lower than that of the same period last year.

Nitric acid: The domestic nitric acid price stabilized this week. The price was 2367 yuan/ton on October 28 and 2367 yuan/ton on November 4. The price was flat last week, down 27.99% from the same period last year.

At present, the aniline market continues to be in a tight supply situation, but the devices for early shutdown and maintenance are planned to restart, and the supply is expected to increase. During the week, pure benzene fell continuously, and the cost support weakened; The demand for downstream auxiliary agents is weak, and the follow-up of high priced aniline is cautious. It is mainly just in need of purchase. The fundamentals of aniline are weak, and the prices are sideways arranged within the week.

3、 Future market expectation

The aniline plants overhauled in North China have been restarted successively, and the shortage of supply has eased to a certain extent. The cost of aniline is weak, and the demand needs to be followed up. To sum up, aniline continued to operate at a high level in the short term. The industry weighed supply and downstream gas buying, and the price may fall back. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw materials, the dynamics of aniline device and the downstream picking mood.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of November 7, the average price of domestic rubber grade superior white carbon black was 5650.00 yuan/ton. The overall market was stable and strong, and white carbon black was mainly stable. At present, the operating rate is stable, the procurement atmosphere is general, and the overall trend is strong. At present, the market supply is normal, and the shipment is slow.

The white carbon black market is mainly stable, and the price is relatively strong compared with the same period last week, with an increase of 0.89%. The manufacturer mainly supplies contract customers. At present, the operating rate is stable, the overall market negotiation atmosphere is flat, the shipment is slow, and the overall market is mainly stable.

Chemical index: On November 6, the chemical index stood at 950 points, unchanged from yesterday, 32.14% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and 58.86% higher than the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

According to the white carbon black analyst of the business community, the mainstream price of rubber grade white carbon black is expected to be around 6000 yuan/ton in the short term.

This week (10.31-11.4), the domestic liquid ammonia stopped falling at the beginning of the week, and the price rebounded from the middle of the week to the weekend. As of November 4, compared with last weekend, the liquid ammonia has risen by 100-150 yuan/ton accumulatively. Mainly due to the reduction of ammonia emission by manufacturers in the north, the maintenance of some enterprises’ devices, and the decline of supply, prices in Shandong, Hebei, Shanxi and other places hit the bottom and recovered, and the market growth slowed on Friday. According to the monitoring of the business community, the increase of liquid ammonia this week was 1.30%.

Main domestic markets:

This week, the liquid ammonia market in Shandong continued to rise, and dealers generally reported higher, with an increase of more than 100-200 yuan/ton. At present, the supply pressure in this region is not large, the inventory pressure of large factories is relieved, the self consumption is increased, and the export volume is reduced. Since this week, the large factories in Shandong have generally raised the price twice, with a range of more than 100 yuan. Downstream demand just needs to be supported. After the urea market rebounded at the end of last month, it was roughly stable this week. Near the weekend, the mainstream price in this region is 3900-4100 yuan/ton

The liquid ammonia market in Hebei Province rose this week. As of Friday, it had rebounded continuously this week. Most dealers reported high prices, mostly in the range of 100-200 yuan/ton. At present, the market has improved slightly, and downstream inquiries have increased. The quotations of major manufacturers have been raised repeatedly this week. The cumulative growth of major manufacturers in Hebei Province this week is 100-150 yuan. The pressure on dealers’ inventory has eased, and the buying interest is gradually rising. At present, the pressure on ammonia volume in the region has eased slightly. As of Friday, the mainstream price in the region was 3800-4000 yuan/ton.

Future market forecast:

According to the analysts of the business community, the supply and demand of the domestic liquid ammonia market are basically balanced, and some markets are slightly differentiated, and the future market may show different ups and downs. After the rebound of the market this week, the future market may not push up much. Without any improvement in demand, liquid ammonia will still maintain a narrow range of shocks.

According to the monitoring of bulk data by the business community, the spot price of styrene in Shandong fell in October. At the beginning of the month, the spot price of styrene in Shandong was 9300.00 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the spot price of styrene in Shandong was 8341.67 yuan/ton, a decline of 10.30%. The price fell 12.38% year on year.

styrene

The styrene market price fell in October. It can be seen from the figure above that the price of styrene has continued to decline in the past month. The main reason for the decline was that the focus of the pure benzene market continued to move down, and the cost support was poor. At present, the domestic styrene inventory was on the high side, and there were many sources of goods arriving at the port. The inventory of styrene in East China port was 66500 tons, increasing month on month; The inventory of ports in South China was 16400 tons, up month on month. Domestic styrene plants have stable output, and there is no parking plan for the time being. It is expected that the styrene inventory will further accumulate. It is expected that the spot price of styrene will decline mainly due to shocks in the later period.

In terms of raw materials, pure benzene fell sharply this month. The price at the beginning of the month is 7850-8100 yuan/ton (the average price is 7901 yuan/ton); At the end of the month, the price was 7400-7500 yuan/ton (the average price was 7455 yuan/ton), down 5.93% this month. Due to the fact that the downstream demand is multi-dimensional and needs to be followed up, the enterprises in Shandong are under pressure to ship goods and have a strong desire to arrange stocks. The focus of negotiation is weak, and the price of pure benzene continues to decline.

In terms of downstream, the three major downstream styrene markets rose and fell in October. At the beginning of this month, the average price of PS ordinary materials was 10300 yuan/ton, and at the end of this month, the average price of PS ordinary materials was 10166 yuan/ton, down 1.29% and 12.36% compared with the same period of the year. In October, the PS market offered a small drop, and the merchants were under pressure to deliver goods. The operation of giving way to profits was maintained, and the market was still weak.

The EPS market fell in October. The average price of EPS common materials at the beginning of the month was 11300 yuan/ton, and the average price of EPS common materials at the end of the month was 11030 yuan/ton, down 2.38%. Cost support is poor, and the focus of market negotiation is low. EPS factory finished product inventory piled up, the shipment situation was poor, and the market fell.

The domestic ABS market fell in October. As of the end of the month, the average price of the mainstream offer of general-purpose ABS was about 12,071 yuan/ton, up or down by – 6.06% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month. At present, the ABS industry has a high load, which is maintained at 80% to 90%. There is a continuous abundant supply of goods on the site, and there is a certain pressure on the supply side. In terms of demand, the seasonal demand effect is acceptable, but it is difficult to support the market.

Recently, the pure benzene market has declined, the cost support is insufficient, and the downstream demand is stable. Maoming Petrochemical and other styrene plants have plans to restart. The business community expects that the styrene market will fall mainly in the short term.

In October, the trichloromethane market rose and fell. According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of October 31, the price of chloroform bulk water in Shandong was 3775 yuan/ton, down 7.36% from 4075 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and 13.22% from the peak of 4350 yuan/ton. In the first half of the month, affected by export orders, the supply of goods in the region was tight. The enterprise continuously raised the price of trichloromethane, and the merchant’s offer rose; In the second half of the month, the supply side was loose again, and the price of trichloride fell sharply.

In October, the commencement of methane chloride remained at a high level, but there were many export orders from some large factories, and the supply of goods in Shandong was tight; After the completion of export goods in the middle and late ten days, the supply side returned to the loose trend; At the end of the month, many enterprises reduced their load and parking, and the supply was tightened to a certain extent in the later period. At the end of October, Jinling Dongying Methane Chloride Plant was reduced to 60% load for operation; From October 26, the 300000t/a methane chloride unit in Dongyue has been under load reduction operation, which is expected to last about a month; In late October, Jiangsu Liwen began to shut down its 160000 t/a methane chloride plant for maintenance; Dongying Huatai 160000 t/a methane chloride plant was shut down for maintenance for about a week from October 25.

In October, the cost of the trichloromethane industrial chain was lower, the downstream price was slightly higher, and the upstream of the industrial chain was weak and the downstream supported slightly.

The price of raw materials fell sharply, and the cost of chloroform dragged down the price. According to the business community, as of October 31, the spot price of methanol was 2757 yuan/ton, down 8.46% from 3012 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. At the end of the month, the supply side of methanol was abundant, the demand side did not improve, and the methanol market continued to fall. Local transportation is limited, and some enterprises have increased their inventories, which further aggravates the wait-and-see mood of traders.

In October, the price of downstream refrigerant R22 of chloroform rose slightly and the starting point remained stable; The downstream printing and dyeing industry started around 80%; The start of the pharmaceutical industry was basically stable, and the demand was still supported. However, in the second half of the month, the resistance of the downstream to high priced goods increased, and the transaction of the chloroform market was weak.

Future market forecast: Analysts from the methane chloride data of the business community believe that the supply side is tight at the end of the month, the cost side is low, and the demand is in conflict with the high price supply. It is expected that the price of chloroform will fluctuate narrowly in the short term.

In October, the domestic liquid ammonia market declined by 5.95% due to shocks. Shandong, Hebei, Shanxi, Hubei and Hunan provinces and other regions saw a significant drop of 300-500 yuan. The market supply increased significantly. However, downstream demand is relatively weak, and the peak agricultural demand season has ended. Downstream prices are depressed, and terminal prices are also falling. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of October 31, the current quotation range of liquid ammonia mainstream market in Shandong is 3800-4000 yuan/ton.

Supply side

On the supply side, at the beginning of this month, the price of liquid ammonia was high, and there were too many local maintenance devices, especially the shutdown of Wanhua and Shenyuan devices. In some areas, such as Fujian, the supply of goods was scarce, and the export volume increased, but the downstream acceptance was close to the critical value. With the early maintenance devices being started, but the downstream demand has not followed up, the market supply is excessive. Repeated epidemic situations and poor transportation have led to a cold trading atmosphere, and the manufacturer’s shipping capacity has been greatly reduced. It is inevitable to reduce prices and clear the warehouse.

Cost side

The upstream coal market price is still high, with an increase rate of 12.43% in October. Affected by the epidemic situation and the safety reduction in production, the coal mines are mainly responsible for long-term coal supply, and the market supply is still tight. The supply is reduced, the market trading atmosphere is fair, and the coal price is strongly supported. In terms of downstream ports, the price is mostly strong. During the overhaul of Daqin Line, the amount of coal entering each port has decreased. The traders’ quotation is relatively firm and their willingness to ship is relatively strong. The rise of coal price has brought heavy pressure on downstream ammonia enterprises, especially when the price of liquid ammonia has declined, the profits of enterprises have been significantly compressed. However, the situation of gas head ammonia enterprises is on the contrary. The price of natural gas fell sharply this month, with a monthly drop of more than 20%, greatly easing the cost pressure of gas head ammonia enterprises in Southwest China.

Demand side

In the end, domestic demand entered the traditional slack season, and the downstream urea market was cold. According to the monitoring of the business community, urea fell 1.92% in October, and the supply and demand fundamentals of urea were unbalanced. On the one hand, a small amount of agricultural demand has been stockpiled, the commencement of compound fertilizer plants has declined, and the demand for urea has weakened, which is difficult to support the high price operation. On the other hand, industrial demand has increased slightly. The rubber sheet factory enterprises started at a low level, mainly for the purchase of rigid demand, and the price of melamine was consolidated at a high level, so they had a good enthusiasm for the purchase of urea. In general, the downstream is still rigid, with less increment and limited support.

From the above figure, the price comparison chart of urea and liquid ammonia shows that the trend of liquid ammonia and urea is basically the same. Since October, the price difference between the two has narrowed, urea is stronger than liquid ammonia, and downstream profit margins have increased.

From the above figure, the liquid ammonia industry chain showed a weak performance in October. Most of the products went down, and the cost performance was different. The rise of coal and the fall of natural gas coexisted, and the ammonia enterprises in coal and gas heads were both hot and cold. In the downstream, due to the weakening of seasonal demand, liquid ammonia and downstream products such as formic acid (- 27.62%), DMF (- 19.49%) and diammonium phosphate (- 8.64%) declined strongly.

Future market forecast

The business community believes that, on the cost side, affected by the supply guarantee policy and the northern heating season in winter, the coal may still be able to move forward in the later period, while ammonia enterprises still face greater cost pressure in the later period, the price may be supported. In terms of supply and demand, there are still maintenance devices facing resumption of production in the later period. It is estimated that the supply of liquid ammonia may continue to increase in November. The demand for agricultural fertilizer in the downstream is in the low season, and the operating rate of downstream plants is generally low or the ammonia price is suppressed. In terms of exports, there may still be something to look forward to. The support of the printing mark superimposes on the increase of China’s export substitution to some countries. On the whole, the liquid ammonia may maintain a balanced pattern in the later stage, with resistance and support in price. The domestic regions are subject to short-term differentiation due to epidemic situation and transportation.

Price trend of domestic sodium metabisulfite

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of domestic sodium metabisulfite was weak and stable in October. The average price of industrial sodium metabisulfite on October 1 was 2600.00 yuan/ton, and the average price on October 31 was 2533.33 yuan/ton, down 2.56% in the month as a whole.

Affected by the continuous low upstream cost, some enterprises lowered the factory price slightly again in October, driving the domestic sodium metabisulfite market price to adjust again. From the middle of the year, the price of upstream raw materials was generally weak and stable, and then fluctuated slightly. The overall inventory of sodium metabisulfite industry was relatively low. Supported by factors such as stable cost decline and tight market supply, the price of domestic sodium metabisulfite market was generally weak and stable.

As of October 31, the price of soda ash fell slightly by 0.75% in the month, and the price of sulfur fell again, down 11.88% in the month. The bottom of raw material cost fluctuated weakly, and the downstream had a strong wait-and-see attitude. In the future, the domestic sodium metabisulfite market price was not sufficiently motivated to recover.

Future market forecast

According to the analysts of the business community, the raw material cost fluctuates at a low level, and the downstream trade subjects have a strong wait-and-see attitude. In the short term, the domestic sodium metabisulfite market price is in a dilemma of rising and falling, and the overall market will continue to move forward at the current level with small fluctuations.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business community, the nickel price fluctuated frequently in October. At the beginning of the month, the nickel price was 19116.67 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the nickel price fell slightly to 188450 yuan/ton, with an overall decline of 1.42%, up 29.68% year on year.

Macro: In October, the European Central Bank raised three major interest rates by 75 basis points. The Federal Reserve announced its September interest rate resolution as scheduled, raising interest rates by another 75 basis points. The US reported that the CPI in September was the focus of the financial market. The CPI rose 8.2% in September, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.

On the supply side: In October, the Philippines entered the rainy season, which may affect the freight volume, and the price of nickel ore is firm; In the third quarter, the nickel output of Danshui River increased month on month, and the spot supply of domestic Jinchuan nickel and Russian nickel eased slightly; Indonesian officials once again stressed that the export tax on semi-finished nickel products will be levied this year.

Demand: In the downstream, the demand for nickel has improved due to the frequent positive developments in the new energy industry chain, and the overall trend of the power battery industry chain for sulfuric acid stainless steel has warmed up. The profit of stainless steel improved, which drove the steel plant to maintain a high production schedule. The output in October was about 2.89 million tons, and the output is expected to stabilize in November.

To sum up: In October, nickel supply was tight, and the nickel industry chain on the demand side is still in the golden nine silver ten peak season. The rapid development of the new energy industry has driven the demand for nickel sulfate, and the nickel demand in the stainless steel field has improved. The final result of LME’s sanctions on Russian metals may be announced in the near future, which may cause sharp fluctuations in the non-ferrous market. According to the annual nickel price comparison chart of the business community in recent three years, the price in November is still stronger than that in October, but November is the low season for consumption, and the demand may weaken. It is expected that the nickel price will still maintain a wide range of fluctuations in November.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of October 27, the average price of PMMA for domestic general transparent premium products was 16225.00 yuan/ton. In October, the PMMA market was strong. In October, the PMMA price rose slightly, up 0.78%. At present, the mainstream price of the market is 16100-16200 yuan/ton. The overall market is balanced in supply and demand, the atmosphere of negotiation is general, and the operating rate is normal.

As of October 14, the average price of domestic general transparent premium PMMA was 16100.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from the same period last week. PMMA prices mainly operated stably, and the overall market price fluctuation range was not large. At present, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers is about 16100 yuan/ton. It is expected that the PMMA market price will maintain stable operation, and the focus of discussion is narrow and weak. The overall market supply and demand are balanced, and the operating rate is stable, The average price of PMMA for domestic general transparent high-quality products is 16100.00 yuan/ton. The overall market is stable, and the price has not changed significantly. The quotation range of mainstream manufacturers is about 16100 yuan/ton. The merchants are active in shipping and giving up profits. The price of PMMA is stable. At present, the supply and demand of the overall market is balanced, the downstream just needs to purchase, the focus of negotiation is weak, and the supply side is normal, Latest quotation: 16800 yuan/ton from Shanghai Hongqi Plastic Technology Co., Ltd.

As of October 21, the average price of PMMA for domestic general transparent premium products was 16225.00 yuan/ton, which was stronger than that of the same period last week. The overall market price fluctuation range of PMMA is not large. At present, the mainstream manufacturers’ quotation range is about 16200 yuan/ton, and the focus of discussion is stable. The overall market supply and demand are balanced, and the operating rate is stable. This week, the average price of PMMA for domestic general transparent premium products is 16100.00 yuan/ton, and the overall market is stable, There is no significant change in the price. The quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remains around 16100 yuan/ton. The merchants actively deliver goods and make profits. PMMA prices are mainly stable. At present, the overall market is in balance of supply and demand. Downstream just needs to purchase. The focus of negotiation is weak. The supply side is normal. The latest quotation of the enterprise: Shanghai Hongqi Plastic Technology Co., Ltd. 16700 yuan/ton.

Rubber and plastic index: On October 26, the rubber and plastic index was 683 points, down 1 point from yesterday, down 35.57% from the peak of 1060 points (March 14, 2012) in the cycle, and up 29.36% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

According to the analysts of PMMA, the white carbon black market is expected to operate stably and strongly in November, and the mainstream price range is about 16200 yuan/ton.