Last week (December 5-11), the cost demand of viscose staple fiber was weak, and the quotations of individual factories were lowered or the preferential treatment was enlarged. The negotiated price of dissolving pulp fell, and the support on the cost side weakened. During the week, viscose staple fiber enterprises still mainly implemented early orders, and some downstream regions just needed replenishment, but most of the deals were made with low price small orders. From the perspective of the downstream human cotton yarn market, the human cotton yarn price continued to be weak, the price fell, the market demand continued to be weak, the overall trading atmosphere was light, the inventory of the yarn mill continued to accumulate, and the factory operating rate declined slightly.

Price trend of viscose staple fiber

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of viscose staple fiber fell slightly last week (December 5-11). As of December 11, 2022, the factory quotation of 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber in China was 13,000 yuan/ton; 200 yuan/ton lower than last week, with a weekly drop of 1.52%. The price of human cotton yarn was weak and overcast. As of December 11, 2022 (30s, ring spinning, first class), the average ex factory price was 17466 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly drop of 0.57%.

Supply and demand

Recently, the start-up rate of viscose staple fiber industry remains low, and the overall low start-up may continue under the loss operation of the manufacturer. In the short term, the enterprise still mainly executes the early orders, and the enterprise’s physical inventory is likely to continue to increase. The demand for human cotton yarn continues to be weak, and the operating rate of the factory drops slightly. The manufacturer mainly makes shipments, and the overall delivery atmosphere is light. The downstream just needs a small amount of procurement. The weaving factory has arranged a Spring Festival holiday.

Future market forecast

Recently, viscose staple fiber and downstream rayon yarn market are in a strong bearish mood, and the operation is cautious. The yarn market is in conflict with the current price of viscose, and the enthusiasm for entering the market is not good. Some yarn enterprises and terminal weaving factories have stopped work for holidays, and the market demand for raw materials has further decreased. Under the pressure of weak cost and weak demand, analysts of the business community expect the price of viscose staple fiber to show a weak downward trend.

According to the bulk data list of the business cooperative, the price of thermal phosphoric acid market this week is the main actor. As of December 9, the average market price of 85% industrial grade phosphoric acid in China was 9100 yuan/ton, which was 3.02% higher than the average price of 8833 yuan/ton on December 5.

Mainstream market:

As of December 9, the ex factory quotation of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan was about 9200 yuan/ton, that of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan was about 8900 yuan/ton, and that of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei was about 9100-9600 yuan/ton. The market quotation of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in Nanjing is about 8800-9600 yuan/ton.

Cost side:

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus, the price of yellow phosphorus market was raised this week, and the manufacturers had a strong attitude towards price fixing. Due to power restriction in Guizhou, the on-site supply is reduced. The transaction price of yellow phosphorus was generally raised, and enterprises were reluctant to sell. As of December 9, the average factory price of yellow phosphorus and net phosphorus had risen to 33000 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw phosphorus ore, the domestic phosphorus ore market was steadily consolidated and operated this week. Near the end of the year, some mining enterprises have closed their mines and stopped mining. The overall supply of medium and high-end grade phosphorus ore in the site is still tight. The price of some mining enterprises in Guizhou has been implemented until the end of the year, and the overall news of phosphorus ore is relatively calm. As of December 9, the domestic phosphorus ore market price is around 1030-1080 yuan/ton, and the price of 28% grade phosphate ore is around 950-980 yuan/ton.

Demand side:

This week, the downstream demand of phosphoric acid is general, with a moderate amount of replenishment as the main part, and there is limited turnover on the market. Downstream procurement is still cautious and mainly wait-and-see.

Future market forecast

Phosphoric acid analysts from the business community believe that due to the continuous rise in the price of raw yellow phosphorus, the cost side is favorable, the phosphoric acid market is on the rise, and the downstream is mainly cautious. It is expected that the price of phosphoric acid will rise steadily in the short term. It is suggested to pay attention to the change of raw material market trend.

In November, the domestic EVA market trend was weak and the price fell. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average ex factory price of domestic EVA was 18,733.33 yuan/ton on November 1 and 17,233.33 yuan/ton on November 30, with an increase or decrease of – 8.01% and – 20.46% compared with the same period last year.

In November, the domestic EVA market accepted the weak market in the early stage. On the supply side, the ex factory price of petrochemical enterprises fell, and the construction started in the middle of the month increased, with the overall load above 60%. In the month, the supply of goods was abundant, the total inventory position rose, and the market competition was fierce, dragging down the factory price; In terms of demand, the demand for photovoltaic and foaming materials has not improved, and the consumption is not good. The downstream multi-dimensional companies maintain their production with rigid procurement, and the market trading atmosphere is light. The sharp drop in auction supply in the first half of the month has brought significant pressure on the market, affecting the current pessimistic mentality of businessmen. The traders on the market have a negative attitude. The offer continues to fall with the petrochemical plant. There is a large space for real order negotiation, and the operation is dominated by giving up profits and taking orders.

To sum up, the EVA market demand in November was weak, the downstream was cautious, the just needed replenishment lagged behind, and the market trading atmosphere was cold. The industrial load rebounded in shock, and the market supply pressure increased rather than decreased. It is expected that the domestic EVA market will continue to operate in a weak position in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of November 30, the average price of domestic rubber grade superior white carbon black was 5750.00 yuan/ton. In November, white carbon black was the main player in the overall market, with a price increase of 2.68% compared with the same period last month. At present, the downstream just needs to purchase, and the mainstream price is about 6000 yuan/ton.

As of November 7, the white carbon black market mainly operated stably, with a strong price increase of 0.89% and slow shipment. The overall market mainly operated stably, with a small price increase, which was 1.77% higher than that at the beginning of the month. The purchasing atmosphere was general, and the quotations of mainstream manufacturers did not change much, with a narrow range and a strong operation.

Chemical commodity index: On November 29, the chemical index was 936 points, down 4 points from yesterday, down 33.14% from the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and up 56.52% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

According to the white carbon black analysts of the business community, the white carbon black market is expected to operate stably and strongly in December.

Recent price trend of isooctanol

As can be seen from the figure above, the ex factory price of isooctanol in Shandong Province fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream isooctanol manufacturers in Shandong Province dropped from 9466.67 yuan/ton at the weekend to 9300.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a drop of 1.76%. A year-on-year drop of 18.90%. On December 4, the isooctanol commodity index was 68.38, unchanged from yesterday, 50.27% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 137.50 (2021-08-08), and 94.54% higher than the lowest point of 35.15 on February 1, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Upstream support increases while downstream demand decreases

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the factory quotation of Shandong mainstream isooctanol manufacturers fell slightly this week: the octanol unit of Jianlan Chemical is under maintenance; Lihuayi offered 9300 yuan/ton of isooctanol this weekend, down 100 yuan/ton compared with last weekend; Hualu Hengsheng offered 9300 yuan/ton of isooctanol this weekend, down 300 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market rose slightly this week, with the price rising from 7296.60 yuan/ton at the weekend to 7710.60 yuan/ton at the weekend, up 5.67%, 3.14% year-on-year. The upstream raw material market price rose slightly, and the cost support increased. Affected by the supply and demand, it had a positive impact on the price of isooctanol.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the DOP factory price fell slightly this week. The DOP price dropped from 10170.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 9960.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 2.06%, 9.25% YoY. Downstream DOP prices fell slightly, and downstream customers became less enthusiastic about purchasing isooctanol.

Upstream support increased, downstream demand weakened, and isooctanol was bearish in the future

In the first ten days of December, the market of isooctanol in Shandong Province fell mainly due to slight fluctuations. The upstream propylene market rose slightly and cost support increased. Downstream DOP market declined slightly, and downstream demand weakened. According to the isooctanol analysts of the business community, the short-term domestic isooctanol market may fall slightly due to the impact of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of December 2, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was 7500 yuan/ton, which was up 67 yuan/ton, or 0.90%, compared with November 28 (the reference price of n-butanol was 7433 yuan/ton).

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that this week (11.28-12.02), the n-butanol market in Shandong Province in China rose slightly. At the beginning of the week, the n-butanol market was operating steadily and steadily. At the middle of the week, the n-butanol plant was shut down for maintenance in some areas, and the on-site supply was expected to decrease. In addition, the rising raw propylene market this week gave the n-butanol cost support to be strengthened. On December 1, Some n-butanol factories in Shandong Province slightly raised the price of n-butanol by 200 yuan/ton. As of December 2, the market price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was around 7400-7600 yuan/ton. At present, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol in the plant is mild, and the downstream just needs to purchase.

Post market analysis of n-butanol

At present, the inquiry atmosphere in the n-butanol market is fair, and the downstream stock is mainly based on the quantity. The current supply side and the cost side give n-butanol some support, and the mentality of the industry is improving. The n-butanol data engineer of the business community believes that the n-butanol market may stabilize in the short term, but it is stronger. More attention should be paid to the specific information changes on the supply and demand side.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8335 yuan/ton on November 1, and the average price was 8408 yuan/ton on November 30. The increase rate during this period was 0.87%, 0.48% higher than that on October 1.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426H) was 9600 yuan/ton on November 1 and 9333 yuan/ton on November 30, with a drop of 2.78% during the period, down 6.48% compared with October 1.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) was 8366 yuan/ton on November 1, and 8400 yuan/ton on November 30, with an increase of 0.4% during the period, 0.2% lower than that on October 1.

In November, the spot price of the domestic polyethylene market rose and fell in various ways, among which LLDPE rose slightly in the first half of the month and operated in a narrow range in the second half; LDPE continuously lowered its quotation throughout the month, with a large decline; HDPE quotation is mainly firm. It is estimated by data that the domestic polyethylene output decreased by 3.69% month on month in November, and the supply of goods in some regions was tight in the middle of the month, providing some support for the polyethylene market. The “Double 11″ e-commerce consumption festival has brought a short-term boost to the market, but after the e-commerce festival, the operating rate of packaging film has declined, and downstream orders are not good. At the end of the month, the enterprise was willing to go to the warehouse, mainly to make more profits for shipment.

In terms of current raw materials, on November 29, international crude oil futures closed higher, bringing some support to the cost side, but the support was limited. On the demand side, the peak season of agricultural film has gradually ended, the willingness of petrochemical enterprises to support prices has weakened, and the logistics has been blocked due to the impact of domestic public events. The future market is pessimistic. It is expected that the polyethylene spot market will be dominated by weak operation.

According to the data of the large list of business cooperatives, as of November 28, 2022, the domestic market price of diethylene glycol was 6050 yuan/ton. Compared with November 1, 2022 (the reference price of diethylene glycol was 5600 yuan/ton), the price increased by 450 yuan/ton, or 6.76%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring of the business community that the diethylene glycol market has been rising as a whole since November (11.1-1.28). In the first ten days of October, the inventory of the main port continued to go out of stock, but the downstream demand was not expected to be good, the market was not motivated enough to push up, and the diethylene glycol market rose slightly, showing a stalemate. As of November 11, the market price of diethylene glycol was around 5500-5800 yuan/ton.

In the middle and late October, the number of imported ships arriving at the port was limited, the shipment situation at the port was relatively stable and optimistic, the port inventory remained low, and the supply was expected to be tight. The downstream accepted higher prices, and the diethylene glycol market rose broadly. The diethylene glycol market price was near 5980-6150 yuan/ton. However, near the end of the month, the diethylene glycol market price fell slightly due to the decline of crude oil and the reduction of shipment.

As of November 28, the market price of diethylene glycol was near 5750-6100 yuan/ton, exceeding 6% in November. At present, the trading atmosphere in the diethylene glycol field is general, and the actual orders are mainly negotiated according to the quantity.

At present, the trading and investment atmosphere in the diethylene glycol market is slightly weak, and the supply and demand transmission is general. The diethylene glycol data engineer of the business community believes that in the short term, the diethylene glycol market will mostly adjust its operation in a narrow range, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the arrival at the terminal and the subsequent arrival at the port.

The price of o-xylene dropped sharply in November

It can be seen from the trend chart of ortho xylene price of the business community that as of November 28, the price of ortho xylene was 8500 yuan/ton, down 1100 yuan/ton, or 11.46%, from 9600 yuan/ton at the end of October 31 of last month. Both upstream and downstream of the o-xylene industry chain fell, and the domestic market of o-xylene fell.

In November, the market of raw material mixed xylene fell due to shock

It can be seen from the mixed xylene price trend chart of the business community that the mixed xylene price fell in November. As of November 28, the price of mixed xylene was 7690 yuan/ton, down 6.56% from 8230 yuan/ton on November 1. In November, the price of mixed xylene fell in shock, the cost of o-xylene fell, and the pressure on o-xylene to fall increased.

The downstream phthalic anhydride price continued to decline in November

It can be seen from the trend chart of phthalic anhydride price of the business community that the domestic phthalic anhydride price of neighboring France continued to decline sharply in November. As of November 28, the quotation of phthalic anhydride of neighboring France was 8825 yuan/ton, a sharp drop of 8.90% from the price of 9687.50 yuan/ton on October 31. In November, the price of phthalic anhydride in ortho French dropped sharply, the downstream demand was weak, and the downward pressure on ortho xylene increased.

Future outlook

Analysts of ortho xylene data from the business community believe that the ortho xylene manufacturers started work steadily in November and the supply of ortho xylene was sufficient. On the cost side, the price of mixed xylene dropped sharply and the cost of o-xylene dropped; On the demand side, phthalic anhydride continued to decline, while the demand for ortho benzene remained weak. To sum up, the cost of o-xylene fell and the demand was sluggish, and the price of o-xylene was expected to decline in the future.

Price trend

The domestic PA66 market declined in late November. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average ex factory price of domestic PA66 was 25250 yuan/ton on November 1, and 24000 yuan/ton on November 25. The range of increase and decrease was -4.95%, and -39.49% compared with the same period last year.

Cause analysis

In late November, the price of PA66 fell, and the offer center was lowered. On the upstream side, the domestic supply of hexamethylene diamine is still tight and the price is firm. Adipic acid fell due to the weak raw material market, and the support of PA66 cost fell. In terms of industry operating rate, PA66 enterprises continue to be affected by the tight supply of raw materials, the industry load is limited, the operating level is stable between 60% – 70%, and the market spot supply is stable and abundant, leading to an increase in social inventory. In terms of demand, this week, the terminal enterprises tended to maintain production just because of their demand for goods. At the end of the traditional peak season, the enthusiasm for downstream goods preparation was further reduced, and they had strong resistance to high price goods. As the shipping speed of merchants slows down, the center of gravity of the price loosens in the middle of the month, the shipping speed of merchants slows down, and the market is not smooth.

Future market forecast

The spot price of PA66 fell in late November. The raw material side market remained strong, and the cost side support of PA66 was average. The load of PA66 enterprises stabilized, the enterprises reduced their prices and shipped goods, and the overall inventory position increased. The demand side just needs to follow up slowly, and it is estimated that PA66 will continue to operate in a weak way due to weak demand in the short term.