1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of caustic soda rose first and then fell in December, and rose on the whole. At the beginning of the month, the average price in Shandong market was 1098 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average price in Shandong market was about 1116 yuan/ton. The price rose 1.64%, and the price rose 12.8% compared with the same period last year. On January 2, the caustic soda commodity index was 162.30, unchanged from yesterday, down 38.86% from the peak of 265.47 (2021-10-27) in the cycle, and up 149.27% from the lowest point of 65.11 on October 9, 2020. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the survey data of the business community, the mainstream of domestic caustic soda prices is now stable and adjusted sporadically. The average market price in Shandong is about 1060-1160 yuan/ton. The factory quotation of 32% liquid caustic soda mainstream in Hebei is about 1100-1300 yuan/ton.

The price of caustic soda fell first and then rose this month. In the first ten days of December, the price of caustic soda rose. As the downstream alumina is approaching the Spring Festival, there is a plan to prepare for production, and the overall order volume has increased. In addition, the recent price of alumina is firm, which supports the price of liquid caustic soda. However, with the purchase plan going ahead, the price of caustic soda that continues to rise in the downstream has been depressed. The downstream alumina is more cautious. The buyer and the seller are still playing a game of supply and demand, and the price of caustic soda declines in a narrow range.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in December 2022, there were 3 kinds of rising goods, 2 kinds of falling goods and 0 kinds of goods in the list of rising and falling prices of the chlor alkali industry. The main commodities that rose were caustic soda (2.73%), PVC (2.22%) and light soda ash (0.38%); The main commodities falling were hydrochloric acid (- 2.25%) and calcium carbide (- 1.33%).

Analysts from the business community believe that in the near future, caustic soda prices have been adjusted sporadically, and the mainstream has maintained stable operation. As the downstream alumina is approaching the Spring Festival, there is a preparation plan, but the procurement plan is more cautious. The buyer and seller are still playing a game of supply and demand. It is comprehensively expected that caustic soda will mainly be consolidated and operated, depending on the downstream market demand.

Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of sulfur in East China fell sharply this week. The average price of sulfur on December 30 was 1270.00 yuan/ton, down 12.41% from the price of 1450.00 yuan/ton on December 24, and down 10.98% from the beginning of the month.

The sulfur market in East China is weak and declining. With the steady progress of winter fertilizer storage market, the price of ammonium phosphate is rising, the intention to purchase monoammonium phosphate in the downstream is weakening, the demand for sulfur market is declining, and the sulfur refinery is operating normally. Due to force majeure, logistics and transportation are blocked, and manufacturers’ inventory is accumulated. In order to relieve the pressure on inventory, prices are falling one after another to stimulate shipment, and the sulfur price is significantly reduced. As of the 30th, the mainstream price of solid sulfur in refineries in Shandong was about 1250-1310 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of liquid sulfur was 1200-1250 yuan/ton.

Downstream market of industrial chain

The downstream sulfuric acid market is weak and downward. As of December 30, the average domestic sulfuric acid price was 286.67 yuan/ton, down 3.37% compared with 296.67 yuan/ton on December 24. The on-site transportation is blocked, the enterprise’s shipment is not smooth, the downstream commencement is low, the demand is low, the willingness to receive goods is not strong, the enterprise’s inventory pressure increases, the operator’s mentality is bearish, and the price of sulfuric acid decreases.

The market of monoammonium phosphate continued to decline. On December 30, the average market price of 55% powdered monoammonium phosphate was 3537.50 yuan/ton. On December 24, the average market price of 55% powdered monoammonium phosphate was 3575.00 yuan/ton. The market price of monoammonium phosphate decreased by 1.05%. The price of raw materials has declined, the cost support has weakened, and the enthusiasm of downstream for high price procurement has decreased, the demand has weakened, and the market focus of monoammonium phosphate has decreased.

Future market forecast

According to the sulfur analysts of the business community, the sulfur refinery at the supply end is running stably, with sufficient inventory, and the downstream is following up on demand, with insufficient support. The business is mainly wait-and-see, and the price is stable. It is expected that the short-term sulfur market will be wait-and-see, with specific attention paid to the downstream follow-up.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic butadiene market continued to fluctuate and rise in December. From December 1 to 29, the domestic butadiene market price rose from 6407 yuan/ton to 6978 yuan/ton, with an increase of 8.91% during the cycle and a year-on-year increase of 50.96%.

At the beginning of the month, the domestic butadiene market continued to fall, while the European price of the external market fell sharply, which affected merchants’ concerns about the supply pressure of the global market. At the same time, the domestic northern spot resources were abundant, and the poor transaction dragged down the weak market. As the price of butadiene declines, the downstream will make up for bargains periodically. In the first ten days of this month, the 1 # unit of Yangzi Petrochemical Company was temporarily shut down due to the impact of upstream accidents. The sudden positive supply side boosted the mentality of the merchants. The quotation of butadiene products of various distribution companies of Sinopec, the main manufacturer, was raised by 300 yuan/ton, which helped the traders to keep up. In the middle of this month, after early consumption, traders had less goods in their hands, which coincided with the need for periodic replenishment in some downstream areas, once driving spot prices higher. In the last ten days of this month, affected by the low expected commencement of the cracking unit, the external price rose, which boosted the domestic spot market. At the same time, there was no sales of superior products in domestic new capacity, and the supply increase was less than expected, which jointly boosted the domestic spot market.

In terms of cost, on December 29, the benchmark price of WTI crude oil of the business community was $79.53 per barrel, down – 1.27% compared with December 1 ($80.55 per barrel). On December 29, the benchmark price of naphtha in the business community was 6811.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of – 9.21% compared with December 1 (7502.25 yuan/ton). Butadiene costs have many negative factors.

On the supply side, Sinopec East China Sales Company raised the listing price of butadiene by 200 yuan/ton, and implemented 7000 yuan/ton since December 21. Zhejiang Petrochemical 2 # 250000 t/a butadiene plant was restarted, but the plant operation rate was low, and the capacity utilization rate of butadiene industry increased by 3.53% month on month. Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase II 250000 t/a plant was shut down for maintenance on November 22, and restarted on December 19. Lianyungang Petrochemical 70000 t/a butadiene unit took off and landed on November 10 for negative operation. Fujian Lianhe 120000 t/a unit was shut down for maintenance on December 2 and restarted on December 22. Although some early maintenance devices were restarted, the operating rate was still relatively low, and there were some positive factors in the supply side.

On the demand side, according to the monitoring of the business community, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in China fell by a narrow margin. On December 29, the benchmark price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in the business community was 10580.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of – 3.73% compared with December 1 (10990.00 yuan/ton). The price of domestic styrene butadiene rubber fluctuated downward. On December 29, the benchmark price of styrene butadiene rubber in the business community was 10825.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.31% compared with December 1 (10858.33 yuan/ton). The price of nitrile rubber in China fluctuated narrowly. On December 29, the benchmark price of nitrile rubber in the business community was 15025.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.83% compared with December 1 (15150.00 yuan/ton). At present, the downstream rubber industry continues to be in strong demand and lacks sustainable support. Most of the product prices fall by a narrow margin, and the commencement of construction remains at about 60%. There is no obvious positive factor for butadiene demand.

In terms of external market: the closing price on December 28, the external price of butadiene in Asia rose: South Korea FOB reported 805-815 dollars/ton, up 10 dollars/ton; China CFR reported 835-845 dollars/ton, up 10 dollars/ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe remained stable: FOB Rotterdam closed at USD 505-515/ton; FD Northwest Europe closed at 695-705 euros/ton.

It is predicted that the prices of major manufacturers will be pushed up, and at the same time, the external market will be on the rise, and the domestic market will be hard to supplement with low-cost goods. At the same time, the downstream still maintains a just need to follow up, and the sustainability of demand side support is limited. Butadiene analysts from the business community predict that the domestic butadiene market may consolidate in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic PTA market price has shown a V-shaped trend since December. As of December 26, the average market price was 5534 yuan/ton, down 0.35% from the beginning of the month.

At the beginning of this month, PTA prices remained weak under the multiple negative effects of crude oil downturn, PX and PTA new devices planned to be put into production in succession, and PTA accumulation pressure increased due to reduced terminal demand. On December 7, the epidemic control measures were optimized and adjusted, the load of terminal factories rebounded, and the demand improved periodically. At the same time, PTA devices were reduced in production, and the pace of PTA stock accumulation slowed down, and prices rebounded significantly.

In terms of PTA supply, the PX long term negotiation has not been finalized in the first ten days of December, and the PX price is firm. Due to the tight supply of raw materials in stages, PTA plants have reduced the production and load of devices, and the current industry starts at around 62%. In terms of new capacity, PTA plans to focus on production from November to December, but the overall production progress is slower than expected.

In December, the crude oil market was shrouded in a negative atmosphere, and the price continued to fall, reaching the lowest point at the end of the year. Subsequently, the oil market rebounded, mainly because the US dollar continued to fall and short-term supply tension worries overshadowed the pessimistic expectations of demand. As of December 23, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $79.56 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was $83.92 per barrel.

With the adjustment of epidemic prevention policy and the rising price of raw materials, the confidence of downstream textile enterprises has been restored under a series of positive incentives, and they have started to purchase raw materials one after another. Some of the final orders were issued before the year, and the terminal factory postponed the centralized holiday. The market entered the periodic replenishment stage, and the quotations of mainstream polyester factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang continued to rise, with the monthly increase of polyester filament varying from 3-6%. The starting load of looms rose to more than 50%, and some weaving enterprises postponed the original plan to stop in the middle of December until the end of December or early January.

Analysts from the business community believe that since the first ten days of December, driven by the favorable domestic policies, the recovery of terminal construction has led to the favorable drive of the entire industrial chain, and the PTA supply and demand pattern has been improved. At present, the terminal demand continues to fall seasonally in the late ten days after reaching the periodic peak, but PTA supply side is expected to decrease, and the cost side is still supported. Therefore, in general, PTA will still operate with strong vibration.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic MTBE market rose first and then fell. As the crude oil price rose again, the willingness to purchase downstream increased. In addition, due to the maintenance of some factories, the market supply was limited, which supported businesses’ willingness to keep up. From December 9 to 16, the MTBE price rose from 6775 yuan/ton to 6837 yuan/ton. During the cycle, the price rose by 0.92%, and the price fell by 6.34% month on month and 18.30% year on year.

On the cost side, on December 15, international crude oil futures closed lower. The settlement price of the main contract of US WTI crude oil futures was 76.11 US dollars/barrel, down 1.17 US dollars or 1.5%. The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 81.21 dollars/barrel, down 1.49 dollars or 1.8%. Many central banks have raised interest rates and tightened policies, which have put pressure on risky assets. The risk of global economic recession increased, and the risk aversion made the oil market end its third consecutive rise, and the rebound lost momentum. On the whole, crude oil prices rose first and then fell this week, and the domestic oil industry chain MTBE product market was reorganized by the shock of the affected market.

On the demand side, the international crude oil futures price rebounded at a low level, the gasoline market in Shandong stopped falling and rose, and the optimization of epidemic control further promoted the improvement of gas station shipments in the retail market, and the refinery actively pushed prices when shipments improved. The light diesel market is difficult to improve. The weak demand in winter inhibits the purchase of middle and lower stream businesses. The refinery is still dominated by shipment volume. Gasoline sales turned to an upward trend, and its own sales improved gradually. MTBE demand as an additive followed the increase.

In terms of external market, as of the closing on December 15, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market had risen by 5.43 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and FOB Singapore closed at 829.82-831.82 US dollars/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market decreased by 58.00 dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at 896.49-896.99 dollars/ton. The closing price of MTBE market in the United States decreased by 27.55 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and FOB Gulf closed at 861.26-861.6 US dollars/ton (242.61-242.71 US cents/gallon).

It is predicted in the future that with the rise in the prices of various raw materials in the near future, the cost of downstream gasoline merchants has increased significantly, and the enthusiasm for purchasing high priced raw materials has decreased. In addition, two factories in some areas have resumed operation, increasing the market supply, but it is difficult to improve the demand, and the contradiction between supply and demand will reappear. MTBE analysts from the business agency believe that the domestic MTBE market may decline in the short term.

Recent price trend of isooctanol

As can be seen from the above figure, the factory price of isooctanol in Shandong Province rose slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream isooctanol manufacturers in Shandong increased from 9133.33 yuan/ton at the weekend to 9666.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, up 5.84%. A year-on-year decrease of 4.61%. On December 18, the isooctanol commodity index was 71.08, unchanged from yesterday, down 48.31% from the highest point of 137.50 (2021-08-08) in the cycle, and up 102.22% from the lowest point of 35.15 on February 1, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The upstream support is good, and the downstream demand increases

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the factory quotation of Shandong mainstream isooctanol manufacturers rose slightly this week.

From the perspective of the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market rose slightly this week, with the price rising from 7434.60 yuan/ton at the weekend to 7608.60 yuan/ton at the weekend, up 2.34%, down 2.35% year-on-year. The upstream raw material market price rose slightly, with good cost support. Affected by the supply and demand, it has a positive impact on the price of isooctanol.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the DOP factory price rose slightly this week. The DOP price rose from 9761.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 9960.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, an increase of 2.04% and 3.48% year-on-year. Downstream DOP prices rose slightly, and downstream customers actively increased their purchase of isooctanol.

Future outlook

In late December, the market of isooctanol in Shandong Province fell mainly due to slight fluctuations. The upstream propylene market fell slightly over the weekend, with insufficient cost support. Downstream DOP market declined slightly, and downstream demand weakened. According to the isooctanol analysts of the business community, the short-term domestic isooctanol market may fall slightly due to the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data list of the business cooperative, the price of thermal phosphoric acid market rose in a volatile manner this week. As of December 16, the average price of 85% industrial thermal phosphoric acid in China was 9333 yuan/ton, up 2.10% from the average price of 9141 yuan/ton on December 12.

Mainstream market:

As of December 16, the ex factory quotation of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan was about 9250 yuan/ton, that of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan was about 9300 yuan/ton, and that of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei was about 9600-9900 yuan/ton. The market quotation of 85 content WPA in Nanjing is about 9600 yuan/ton, and the factory quotation of 85 content WPA in Hubei is about 8600 yuan/ton.

2、 Market analysis

Cost side:

Yellow phosphorus market prices rose this week. At present, the power restriction in Guizhou is intensifying, the yellow phosphorus output is declining, and some manufacturers in Yunnan are parking, so the market supply is also tight, and the price of yellow phosphorus is rising. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of Yunnan yellow phosphorus is about 34000 yuan/ton; The mainstream quotation of Sichuan yellow phosphorus is about 34000 yuan/ton; The mainstream quotation of Guizhou yellow phosphorus is about 34000 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw phosphorous ore, the domestic phosphorous ore market was generally stable this week. The information on the site was relatively calm, the overall change in supply and demand was small, the supply side was still tight, and the demand side just needed to purchase. Near the end of the year, some mining areas in China will stop mining, and the orders for next year will mainly be pre received. The quotation will also continue to the beginning of next year. As of December 16, the domestic market price of 30% grade phosphate rock is around 1030-1080 yuan/ton, and the price of 28% grade phosphate rock is around 950-980 yuan/ton. The reference price of 32% grade phosphate ore is around 1150-1250 yuan/ton.

Demand side:

The downstream demand of phosphoric acid is fair this week, the market situation is good, and the trading volume on the market is increased. In the near future, the price of phosphoric acid has risen steadily, and the downstream began to stock up under the mentality of buying up rather than buying down. However, due to the epidemic situation, transportation has a certain impact, and the industry is mainly cautious.

3、 Future market forecast

The phosphoric acid analysts of the business community believe that due to the rising price of raw yellow phosphorus, the cost support is strong, the phosphoric acid market is the main player in the trend, and the downstream purchases on demand, with a small amount of stock. It is expected that phosphoric acid will continue to rise in the short term. It is suggested to pay attention to the trend of raw materials and changes in the demand side.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffins 52 was 5400 yuan/ton on December 10, and 5400 yuan/ton on December 15. The price of chlorinated paraffins 52 was stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic price of chlorinated paraffin 52 was stable this week. This week, the raw material liquid wax fell first and then rose. The price of raw material liquid chlorine was the main factor, and the cost support was strengthened. However, the downstream demand for chlorinated paraffins is still weak, the trading atmosphere in the market is general, and the industry is mainly wait-and-see. As of December 15, the ex factory price of chlorinated paraffins 52 in Anhui was about 6000 yuan/ton, the ex factory price of chlorinated paraffins 52 in Northeast China was about 5800 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of chlorinated paraffins 52 in Shandong Province was about 4600 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material liquid wax, the price of liquid wax fell first and then rose this week. The market followed the trend of crude oil. The liquid wax was shipped stably and the transaction was fair. In terms of raw material liquid chlorine, the liquid chlorine market rose in shock this week, and the liquid chlorine market in Shandong was stable, with a good deal on the floor.

3、 Future market forecast

The chlorinated paraffins analysts of the business community believe that the current cost support of chlorinated paraffins is favorable, but the demand side performance is poor, and the overall market of chlorinated paraffins is still weak. It is expected that the chlorinated paraffin market will be dominated by weak and stable operation in the short term, and it is recommended to pay attention to changes in raw materials and demand side.

Since December, the market of dichloromethane has rebounded at a low level. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of December 9, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 2375 yuan/ton, up 6.26% from 2235 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the peak in the cycle was 2397 yuan/ton. As of September 9, the market price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was between 2300 yuan and 2400 yuan/ton.

Since December, the commencement of methane chloride has declined slightly compared with the previous period, but overall, the pressure on the supply side of dichloromethane is still.

In the first ten days of December, the spot market of methanol fell first and then rose, with slight shocks, and the cost of dichloromethane fluctuated slightly. According to the business community, as of December 9, the spot price of methanol was 2680 yuan/ton, down 0.06% from 2681 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; The low point in the cycle is 2621 yuan/ton.

In winter, the domestic household air conditioning industry is in the slack season of production and marketing, and the demand for mainstream refrigerants R32, R22, R410A is weak, and the refrigerant operation is low; The thin material and pharmaceutical industries started relatively stably, and the transactions in the dichloromethane market were generally flat.

Future market forecast: Analysts of the methane chloride data of the business community believe that the domestic supply of methane chloride is mainly loose, and the narrow range of raw material prices shocks the cost. It is expected that the dichloromethane market will continue to shake and consolidate in the short term.

Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

As can be seen from the figure above, the domestic hydrochloric acid price fell slightly this week, and the average market price fell from 178.00 yuan/ton at the weekend to 174.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decline of 2.25%. A year-on-year drop of 42.00%. On December 11, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 45.79, unchanged from yesterday, down 66.79% from the peak of 137.89 (2021-10-26) in the cycle, and up 154.67% from the lowest point of 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Weakened upstream support, better downstream procurement

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price fell slightly this week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market was consolidated at a low level, and the cost support was insufficient. The price of the downstream polyaluminum chloride market rose slightly, from 2021.25 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 2023.75 yuan/ton at the end of this week, an increase of 0.12%. A year-on-year decrease of 14.11%; The market price of ammonium chloride rose slightly, from 995.00 yuan/ton last weekend to 1040.00 yuan/ton this weekend, up 4.52%. On the whole, the upstream support is insufficient and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is good.

Future market forecast

In the middle and late December, the market price of hydrochloric acid rose mainly in a narrow range. The market of upstream liquid chlorine has been consolidated at a low level recently, with average cost support. The market of downstream polyaluminum chloride and ammonium chloride has risen slightly, and the purchase intention of downstream has increased. Analysts from the business community believe that hydrochloric acid has risen mainly due to slight fluctuations recently.