Domestic price trend of paraxylene:

It can be seen from the p-xylene trend chart that the price trend of this week is temporarily stable. As of the end of the week, the domestic ex-factory price of p-xylene was 8500 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price of 8500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 6.25%.

The domestic paraxylene supply is normal, and the domestic PX operating rate is about 70%. The external dependence of PX products is about 29%. The recent price trend of PX external market is volatile. As of the 23rd, the closing price of the Asian paraxylene market is 993-995 yuan/ton FOB Korea and 1018-1020 dollars/ton CFR China. The low external price is negative for the domestic market. The recent operating rate of PX devices in Asia is normal. On the whole, the operating rate of paraxylene devices in Asia is about 60%, and the price trend of the domestic paraxylene market is temporarily stable.

The price of crude oil fell this week. As of the 23rd, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $75.39/barrel, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures in April was US $82.21/barrel. On the macro level, the inflation level in the United States remains high, the economic data is strong, and the month-on-month rise in inflation data in January makes the expectation of the Federal Reserve’s radical interest rate increase continue to rise. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its first meeting in 2023. As soon as the news came out, the oil market fell sharply at the end of the day. The minutes showed that the probability of further interest rate increase was increased, and the stubbornness of inflation and the long-term trend of inflation made the interest rate reduction at the end of the year almost impossible, which led to the pressure on the prices of risky assets such as crude oil. The western developed economies are suffering from inflation and are still in the expected channel of economic recession. It is difficult for oil demand to improve in the medium and long term. It can also be seen from the EIA inventory data that the super accumulation of gasoline and refined oil makes market participants uneasy, especially the news of the release of crude oil reserves in the United States is also negative for the oil market, and the domestic paraxylene market price is temporarily stable due to the decline of crude oil price.

The price trend of the downstream PTA market rose this week. As of the 24th, the average price of the PTA market was 5600-5650 yuan/ton, up 1.71%. In terms of PTA supply, PTA starts fell this week. At present, the industry starts at about 72%. PTA plant production reduction and maintenance helped the PTA spot market rise. The improvement of market sentiment led to a significant increase in the enthusiasm of terminal inquiry, and the improvement of PTA supply and demand margin. Many downstream polyester enterprises are still actively resuming work, the operating rate is in the process of gradual improvement, and the consumption of PTA is rising. In terms of terminal weaving, the operating rate is also in the process of seasonal increase. As of February 23, the comprehensive operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has increased to more than 67%. On the whole, the downstream market has recovered slowly and the price trend of paraxylene is temporarily stable.

Chen Ling, a PX analyst at the Business Agency, believes that the current oil market is playing a long and short game, and the recovery of demand in Asia has brought some benefits, but the risk of economic recession in Europe and the United States still exists, and the oil market will still face fundamental pressure in the future. The terminal downstream operating rate will rise, the downstream demand is expected to rise, and the PX market supply is normal. It is expected that the market price of paraxylene will rise slightly in the future.

Market price trend chart of polyformaldehyde

In February, the price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong fell. At the beginning of the month, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 5350.00 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 5240.00 yuan/ton, down 0.19%, down 4.64% year on year.

Market price trend chart of methanol-polyformaldehyde

The situation of upstream methanol: the domestic methanol market fluctuated slightly in February, and the coal price remained stable. At present, the supply of coal in the main production areas has been repaired and improved. Under the influence of negative factors such as high inventory in the middle and downstream links, the market demand lacks substantive support. The temporary storage of methanol cost is good. The temporary storage of methanol supply side is good.

Recently, the domestic methanol market is dominated by a narrow rise, with good cost support, and the market transaction is expected to recover. Polyformaldehyde analysts of the business agency predict that the price may rise slightly.

The price of plasticizer DBP fell in shock this week

According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of February 20, the DBP price was 9300 yuan/ton, down 1.46% from the DBP price of 9437.50 yuan/ton on February 13. After the holiday, plasticizer enterprises started to rise, DBP supply increased, and DBP prices stopped rising and falling. This week, DBP prices fluctuated and fell.

The price of raw materials fluctuated and adjusted this week

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of February 20, the price of ortho phthalic anhydride was 8287.50 yuan/ton, up 0.45% from the price of 8250 yuan/ton on February 13. The demand for raw material ortho-phenyl rose temporarily. The market of phthalic anhydride rose this week, and the price of phthalic anhydride rose. The downward pressure of DBP still has an increasing upward momentum.

According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, as of February 20, the price of n-butanol was 7066.67 yuan/ton, down 2.75% from the price of 7266.67 yuan/ton on February 13. The start of n-butanol enterprises rose, the supply of n-butanol was sufficient, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol was light, the price of n-butanol fell, the cost of DBP fell, and the downward pressure of DBP increased in the future.

Aftermarket expectation

According to DBP data analysts, the raw material phthalic anhydride rose slightly this week, the price of n-butanol fell sharply, and the cost of DBP raw material fell; This week, plasticizer enterprises started to rise, DBP supply increased, demand remained weak, and DBP downward pressure increased. In the future, the cost of plasticizer fell and the demand was weak, and the supply of plasticizer DBP exceeded the demand, and the price of DBP was expected to fall in shock.

Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, the price of cryolite in Henan Province this week was stable. On February 17, the average market price in Henan Province was 7975 yuan/ton, which was the same as the average price on February 11, with a month-on-month increase of 0.31%.

quotations analysis

This week’s cryolite market was dominated by wait-and-see, and the prices of cryolite enterprises on the market were stable. The raw materials are subject to environmental protection and safety requirements, the operating rate is low, the supply of goods is tight, the cost of coal and natural gas in fuel is high, the production cost of cryolite is high, the market price remains high, and the enthusiasm of downstream market entry is general. Cryolite enterprises ship as required, and their attitude to the market is stable. By February 17, the ex-factory price of cryolite in Shandong is 7000-8600 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price of cryolite in Henan is 7200-8800 yuan/ton.

The price trend of fluorite in the upstream has declined. As of February 17, the average market price was about 3050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.40% compared with the price of 3125 yuan/ton on February 11. After the holiday, fluorite enterprises began to work gradually, the supply side operating rate rose, and the supply of fluorite increased, but the follow-up of downstream demand was limited, the purchase sentiment in the market was not high, the market orders were few, the factory and enterprise had a poor delivery, and the price of fluorite declined.

This week, the downstream aluminum market fluctuated and fell. On February 17, the aluminum price was around 18473 yuan/ton, down 0.59% from the price of 18583 yuan/ton on February 11. The terminal construction is general, the downstream consumption is weak, the order follow-up in the market is insufficient, the market atmosphere is light, and the aluminum price is weak.

Aftermarket forecast

The cryolite market started normally, the supply of goods was stable, and the raw materials started relatively low due to environmental protection and safety requirements. The support for cryolite was good, and the demand was followed up as needed. The enterprise shipments were stable, and the market supply and demand were relatively balanced. It is expected that the short-term cryolite market will maintain stable operation.

This week (2.10-217), the nitrile rubber market was in a narrow range. According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, as of February 17, the price of nitrile rubber was 17350 yuan/ton, up 0.14% from 17325 yuan/ton last Friday, and the weekly low was 17300 yuan/ton. The price of raw materials continues to maintain a high level, and the factory price of nitrile rubber of enterprises is firm. However, as the price of nitrile rubber rises, the fear of high prices in the downstream increases, and the market consolidates in a narrow range.

This week (2.10-217), the price of raw materials butadiene and acrylonitrile fell but remained high, and the cost of nitrile rubber continued to support. As of February 17, the price of butadiene was 9868 yuan/ton, up 3.68% from 9518 yuan/ton on February 10; As of February 17, the price of acrylonitrile was 10550 yuan/ton, down 2.31% from 10800 yuan/ton on Friday.

The supply of nitrile rubber is basically stable.

After the festival, the downstream rubber products industry, such as rubber hose and auto parts, is dominated by small inquiries, with a small number of transactions in the market.

Aftermarket forecast: NBR analysts of the Business Agency believe that the supply of NBR is temporarily stable, and the cost of raw materials butadiene and acrylonitrile continues to support the high level of NBR; In the later stage, with the continued recovery of downstream construction, nitrile rubber may rise again in the later stage.

According to the bulk list data of the Business News Agency, as of February 16, the average price of domestic industrial 85% formic acid enterprises was 3383.33 yuan/ton, 1.50% higher than that of February 9.

Recently, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market has been operating steadily. Recently, the price of raw material sulfuric acid has risen steadily, the price of raw material methanol has fluctuated, and the cost support still exists. In addition, after the Spring Festival, the mainstream enterprises have shut down their devices, and the supply side has decreased. The operators have a good attitude, which supports the steady rise of the formic acid market. Downstream procurement is based on demand, and the enterprises implement orders.

Upstream products: upstream sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market price was temporarily stable on February 15, and the reference price of sulfuric acid was 235.00 on February 15, up 1.44% from February 1 (231.67); For upstream methanol, the reference price of methanol was 2695.71 on February 15, down 0.58% from February 9 (2711.43).

According to the formic acid analysts of the Business Society, there is some support in the cost aspect at present. The market is mainly to digest the inventory, and the transaction is based on demand. In a short time, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market may digest the increase, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic hydrochloric acid price rose slightly this week, with the average market price rising from 154.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 155.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 0.65%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell 33.76% year-on-year. The hydrochloric acid commodity index on February 12 was 40.79, which was the same as yesterday, down 70.42% from the highest point of 137.89 (2021-10-26) in the cycle, and up 126.86% from the lowest point of 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

Upstream support increases, and downstream procurement is general

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price rose slightly this week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market rose slightly and the cost support increased. The market price of downstream polyaluminum chloride decreased slightly, from 1968.75 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 1966.25 yuan/ton at the end of this week, with a decrease of 0.13%. Compared with the same period last year, the year-on-year decline was 19.46%; The market price of ammonium chloride rose slightly, from 1187.50 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 1212.50 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 2.11%. On the whole, upstream support increased and downstream procurement enthusiasm was good.

Aftermarket forecast

In the middle and late February, the market price of hydrochloric acid may rise in a narrow range. The upstream liquid chlorine market has risen slightly in the near future, the cost support has increased, the downstream polyaluminum chloride market has declined slightly, the ammonium chloride market has risen slightly, and the downstream purchasing willingness has increased. Analysts from the Business News Agency believe that hydrochloric acid is mainly rising after a small fluctuation recently.

This week, the spot tin market price (2.3-2.10) fluctuated downward. The average price in the domestic market was 227010 yuan/ton at the end of last week and 217610 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 4.14%.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of price trend K-line to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates: rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the above figure that the tin price will rise as a whole after November 2022 due to the influence of macro factors.

Futures market this week

Variety/ Closing price/ Compared with the same period last week/ Inventory (ton)/ Change from last week’s inventory (ton)

SHANGHAI tin/ 218140 yuan/ton/- 10260 yuan/ton/ 7856./+830

London tin/ US $27270/ton/- 730 dollars/ton/ 3205./+25

In terms of the futures market, Lunxi’s trend this week was weak as a whole, falling by about 2% this week. The main reason was that the US dollar index rose on Monday, and the metal market was generally under pressure. After the shock trend of the US dollar index, the metal market was generally down this week. Shanghai Tin fell nearly 5% in the week following the trend of Lunxi.

In terms of the spot market, this week, following the trend of the Shanghai Tin Exchange, the overall downward trend, the trading volume was general, and the downstream purchase was on demand, and the actual transaction was limited. On the supply side, with the end of the holiday, the smelter gradually began to resume work, the operating rate rose from the previous period, and the concentrate processing fee decreased slightly. It will take some time to fully recover. In terms of demand, as tin prices fell, the willingness of the downstream market to seek bargains and replenish stocks recovered, and there were many inquiries. With the end of the holiday, there was also a certain demand for replenishing stocks. On the whole, the atmosphere in the field gradually returned to normal after the holiday, and there was a certain demand for replenishment in the downstream, but most of them were based on the purchase of just needed goods. In the future, it is expected that the tin market will still maintain a stable, moderate and weak trend, and the subsequent focus will be on the recovery of downstream demand.

The non-ferrous index stood at 1191 points on February 12, unchanged from yesterday, down 22.56% from the highest point of 1538 points in the cycle (2021-10-18), and up 96.21% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, there were four commodities in the non-ferrous sector in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 6th week of 2023 (2.6-2.10), with antimony (3.94%), nickel (2.96%) and lead (0.49%) among the top three commodities. A total of 17 commodities fell on a month-on-month basis, and the first three products fell were Praseodymium neodymium oxide (- 4.35%), dysprosium ferroalloy (- 2.46%) and dysprosium oxide (- 2.45%). The average rise and fall of this week was -0.82%.

The price of o-xylene is temporarily stable this week

According to the price trend chart of ortho-xylene of the business community, the price of ortho-xylene was 7800 yuan/ton as of February 10, which was temporarily stable compared with 7800 yuan/ton of ortho-xylene as of February 1. The market of ortho-xylene industry chain is stagnant, and the domestic ortho-xylene market is temporarily stable.

The market of raw material mixed xylene fell slightly this week

It can be seen from the price trend chart of mixed xylene of the business agency that the price of mixed xylene fell sharply this week. As of February 10, the price of mixed xylene was 7350 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.41% compared with 7380 yuan/ton on January 31; It was slightly lower than 7390 yuan/ton on February 5 last weekend, down 0.54%. The price of mixed xylene is weak and unstable, the cost of ortho-xylene is stagnant, and the downward pressure of ortho-xylene is still weak.

The downstream phthalic anhydride market is deadlocked this week

It can be seen from the price trend chart of phthalic anhydride of the business community that the price of phthalic anhydride was deadlocked and adjusted this week. As of February 10, the price of ortho phthalic anhydride was 8237.50 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.15% compared with the price of 8225 yuan/ton on February 5. Downstream demand is stable, the market of o-phthalic anhydride is stagnant, and the downward pressure of o-xylene is still weak.

Future prospects

According to the analyst of adjacent xylene data of the business agency, the market of the upstream and downstream of the adjacent xylene industry chain was stagnant this week, the price of mixed xylene fell slightly, and the price of phthalic anhydride rose slightly. In the future, the cost of ortho-xylene tends to stabilize and the demand is temporarily stable. It is expected that the price of ortho-xylene will be temporarily stable in the future.

From January 27 to February 3, 2023, the bidding price of crude benzene rose from 5549 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 5725 yuan/ton at the end of this week, with a weekly increase of 3.17%.

International crude oil futures continued to fall on February 2. The settlement price of the main contract of US WTI crude oil futures was US $75.88/barrel, down US $0.53 or 0.7%. The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 82.17 US dollars/barrel, down 0.67 US dollars or 0.8%. The continued strength of the US dollar depressed the crude oil valuation. In addition, the oil price continued to be under pressure due to the weak economic data.

Crude oil prices rose first and then fell, and China’s demand outlook was affected by generally optimistic expectations. At the end of 2022, since China relaxed the epidemic restrictions, the economic growth prospects have been gradually strengthened, driving the recovery of oil demand. At the same time, the performance of the supply side has stabilized, OPEC has steadily implemented the production reduction, and Russia’s oil exports have gradually stabilized. Under the background of the continuous improvement of demand in the oil market, the international oil price rose. In the later period, the inflation level of western economies remained high, and the tightening of monetary policy may be maintained for a long time. The Federal Reserve began a two-day policy meeting on Tuesday, and the expectation of interest rate increase brought pressure to the risk asset side. The final result of monetary policy will be released on Wednesday (local time), and the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points. In addition, the European Central Bank will also announce an interest rate increase when it meets on Thursday. Under the macro negative pressure, the trend of crude oil prices fell.

The ex-factory price of Sinopec pure benzene increased by 100 yuan/ton on January 13, 2023, and the current price is 6950 yuan/ton.

Other enterprises: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7100 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 7150 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 6953 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7050 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 7150 yuan/ton.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of price trend K-line to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates: rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. The weekly K-column chart of pure benzene shows that after entering July, the price of pure benzene continued to decline, slightly warmed at the end of August and the beginning of September, and the price mainly declined from October to December, and warmed in January.

Industrial chain: the pure benzene market rose first and then fell this week. At the beginning of the week, supported by the external market and crude oil prices, the price of pure benzene was the main factor. Sinopec raised the ex-factory price of pure benzene. The market offer was positive, the transaction was fair, and the market price was up. At the weekend, the trend of crude oil and styrene was low, affecting the market mentality, and the market trading was slightly cold. Hydrogenated benzene market was the main market this week, with the price of 7200 yuan/ton in Hebei, the main production area.

The crude benzol market was the dominant market this week, with the mainstream price in Shandong Province ranging from 5830 to 5835 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, the coking enterprises started this week basically the same as before the festival, and the overall start was fair, and the crude benzene supply was sufficient. In terms of demand, the recent downstream construction is OK. Some enterprises have a certain procurement plan after the festival, and the demand for crude benzene is still there. This week, the auction price of each production area has increased slightly since Tuesday, boosted by the rise of the industrial chain in the first half of the week. Overall, crude benzene demand support still exists, but the recent decline of crude oil has dragged down the market mentality, and the price of hydrogenation benzene has declined, with both negative and positive results. It is expected that crude benzene price will be mainly adjusted in a narrow range. The future market will focus on the impact of the trend of basic products such as crude oil and styrene on the market mentality.