The price of DOTP fluctuated and rose in March

According to data monitoring by Business News Agency, as of March 31, the average price of DOTP was 10080 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.93% compared to the average price of 9987.50 yuan/ton on March 1. Plasticizer enterprises started steadily, with sufficient supply of DOTP. The rising price of raw materials was supported by DOTP costs. In March, DOTP prices fluctuated and rose.

Raw material prices fluctuated and rose in March

According to business agency data detection; As of March 31, the price of isooctanol was 9471.43 yuan/ton, up 2.63% from the shock of 9228.57 yuan/ton on March 1. Downstream demand for isooctanol has temporarily stabilized, and downstream customers are seeking bargains to replenish inventory. In March, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and increased, and the upward momentum for DOTP remains. In April, the overhaul expectations for isooctanol enterprises increased, and the price of isooctanol has consolidated strongly. In the future, the upward momentum for DOTP remains.

According to data testing by Business News Agency, as of March 31, the PTA price was 6404.55 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 14.42% compared to the price of 5597.27 yuan/ton on March 1. In March, PTA enterprises stabilized, and the textile industry market entered a traditional peak season. PTA demand slowly rebounded. In March, PTA prices fluctuated and rose, supporting the cost of DOTP raw materials. It is expected that the momentum for DOTP growth in the future will increase.

Import and export data statistics

According to the import and export data released by the customs, in January and February 2023, the cumulative import volume of DOTP was 5670.26 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.87%. Due to the Spring Festival holiday, the import volume in January decreased year-on-year, and in February, the import volume returned to normal. In January and February, the import volume increased to varying degrees year-on-year. From January to February 2023, the cumulative export volume of DOTP was 8.7 tons, a year-on-year increase of 117.5%. The export data of DOTP has increased significantly, while the import data has increased slightly. The import and export volumes have both increased, and the import volume is far greater than the export volume. The domestic plasticizer market has sufficient supply, and the support for the rise of DOTP is insufficient.

Aftermarket expectations

According to DOTP data analysts from the Business News Agency, in March, the raw material of plasticizer DOTP, isooctanol, surged, the price of PTA rose significantly, and the raw material cost of plasticizer DOTP rose; Downstream customers are hunting for bargains to replenish their inventories. In March, DOTP demand was weak, and DOTP demand support was insufficient. The price of isooctanol fluctuates and rises. With the arrival of the peak season, PTA prices have significantly increased, import volumes have increased, and the plasticizer market has sufficient supply. In the future, cost support is relatively large, and demand is weak. It is expected that DOTP will consolidate strongly in the future.

According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the domestic MTBE market is highly volatile. From March 1st to 30th, the price of MTBE increased from 7100 yuan/ton to 7200 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.41% during the cycle, with a maximum amplitude of 6.86%, and a year-on-year decrease of 2.37%.

At the beginning of this month, due to the overhaul of some production enterprises in Shandong, the supply volume was significantly reduced, while the demand for gasoline remained, with both supply and demand being positive. Merchants were strongly bullish, and the MTBE market price was gradually rising. In the first ten days of this month, the overhaul of some devices in Shandong Province, coupled with export orders from some factories, led to a significant reduction in spot supply, which boosted the effect of tight goods and rising prices. Merchants actively boosted prices, and the price increase of enterprises during the week was around 50-200 yuan/ton. In the middle of June, as prices rose to a high level, the enthusiasm for receiving goods from downstream decreased. In addition to the broad downward trend of crude oil, there was a strong pessimistic atmosphere in the market, and demand was increasingly reduced. MTBE prices followed the downward trend.

On the cost side, the international crude oil market in March fell first and then rose, but overall it still fell. As of March 29, international crude oil futures fell slightly. The settlement price of the main contract for US WTI crude oil futures was US $72.97 per barrel, a decrease of US $0.23 or 0.3%. Brent crude oil futures rose, with the main contract closing at $77.59 per barrel, a decrease of $0.55 or 0.7%. The domestic oil industry chain MTBE product market was affected by market fluctuations.

On the demand side, the international crude oil futures price fell first and then rose, and the atmosphere in the entire oil industry chain was weak. There is no positive holiday support in the near future. Gasoline demand has stabilized, while diesel terminal demand is recovering, and the overall recovery is less than expected. The MTBE demand side is temporarily negative.

In terms of external trading, as of March 29, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market was reduced by $5.50 per ton compared to the previous trading day, while FOB Singapore closed at $985.49-987.49 per ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market increased by $15.00 per ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB ARA closed at $1117.99-1118.49 per ton. The closing price of the US MTBE market decreased by 59.36 US dollars per ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB Gulf price closed at 1145.5-1145.86 US dollars per ton (322.68-322.78 US cents per gallon).

Region/ Country/ Closing Price/ Up and down

Asia/ FOB Singapore/ 985.49-987.49 USD/ton./- 5.50 USD/ton

Europe/ FOB ARA./ 1117.99-1118.49 USD/ton./15 USD/ton

United States/ FOB Bay/ 1145.5-1145.86 USD/ton./- 59.36 USD/ton

In the future, as prices fall to a low level and downstream demand increases moderately, coupled with limited support from the market’s spot supply, analysts at the business agency MTBE believe that the domestic MTBE market may stop falling back in the short term

In March, the domestic dimethyl ether market continued its downward trend, while the Henan market stepped down. According to data monitoring by Business News Agency, the average market price of dimethyl ether in Henan was 4320 yuan/ton on March 1, and 4120 yuan/ton on March 28. The monthly decline was 4.63%, down 2.75% compared to the same period last year.

As of March 28, the mainstream prices of dimethyl ether in domestic markets in various regions are as follows:

Region/ Mainstream Quote

Shandong region/ 3700-3750 yuan/ton

Hebei region/ 3750-3800 yuan/ton

Henan region/ 3750-3800 yuan/ton

In March, the overall trend of the dimethyl ether market was difficult to say optimistic, with the market price center moving downward and the price inversion serious. At the beginning of this month, due to the relatively strong market for raw material methanol and strengthened cost support, the price of dimethyl ether increased slightly several times, with a range of 10-20 yuan/ton. Subsequently, the market was accompanied by a decline in raw material prices, weakening cost support, and a significant decline in the market for related liquefied gas products. As a result, on-site inventory pressure increased, factories shifted profits and goods to inventory, and some factories had plans to reduce their burden. Downstream demand continues to be sluggish, with negative factors leading to a difficult improvement in the dimethyl ether market.

 
Overall, the raw material methanol remains weak, the inventory of dimethyl ether manufacturers remains high, and there is no sign of improvement in market demand. There is expected to be a decrease in the supply of dimethyl ether in the future. It is expected that the dimethyl ether market will operate in a weak and volatile manner in the short term.

The domestic acetic acid market is operating on a wait-and-see basis. The utilization rate of on-site acetic acid production capacity is relatively high, and the market supply is relatively sufficient. Enterprises are actively shipping, and downstream companies follow up on demand. The enthusiasm for entering the market to pick up goods is moderate. The on-site trading atmosphere is light, and under the supply and demand game, the price of acetic acid is temporarily stable.

According to bulk data monitoring by Business News Agency, as of March 26, the average price of acetic acid in East China was 3200.00 yuan/ton, which was the same as the price on March 20, with an increase of 1.59% compared to the beginning of the month. As of March 26, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions during the week were as follows:

Region/ March 20th/ March 26th/ Price fluctuation

South China region/ 3150 yuan/ton/ 3150 yuan/ton/ 0

North China/ 3000 yuan/ton/ 3000 yuan/ton/ 0

Shandong region/ 3000 yuan/ton/ 3000 yuan/ton/ 0

Jiangsu region/ 2950 yuan/ton/ 2950 yuan/ton/ 0

Zhejiang Region/ 3050 yuan/ton/ 3050 yuan/ton/ 0

The upstream raw material methanol market is operating in a volatile manner. As of March 26, the average price in the domestic market was 2593 yuan/ton, an overall decrease of 0.95% compared to the price of 2618 yuan/ton on March 20. The raw material coal market is dominated by wait-and-see consolidation, with a lack of positive support on the cost side. At the same time, the spot buying performance is weak, and the methanol market is weak in consolidation.

The downstream acetic anhydride market is up. As of March 26, the factory price of acetic anhydride was 5337 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.18% compared to the price of 5275 yuan/ton on March 20. The upstream acetic acid price is stable, and the cost support for acetic anhydride is limited. The downstream delivery of acetic anhydride follows up on demand. The market negotiation atmosphere is good, and the price of acetic anhydride has increased slightly.

In the future market forecast, the acetic acid analyst from the Business Agency believes that the acetic acid market has sufficient supply, while the downstream demand is weak. The market has followed up on demand. The market has learned that the acetic acid manufacturers in the northwest region have maintenance plans, and the supply of acetic acid may be less. It is expected that the acetic acid market may increase slightly in the future, with specific attention paid to the downstream follow-up situation.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic ABS market is weak, and the spot price has been reduced in a narrow range. According to data monitoring by the Business News Agency, as of March 27, the average price of ABS sample products was 11825 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.07% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

On the supply side: The current high load situation in the ABS industry has increased, and the overhaul of LG Huizhou, Zhejiang Petrochemical and other enterprises has been completed, with the overall operating rate rising to about 93%. There is abundant on-site spot supply, coupled with the entry of new materials into the market before, intensifying on-site competition and high pressure on the supply side. Domestic inventories have accumulated, putting pressure on factory prices of petrochemical plants.

In terms of raw materials: Recently, the overall performance of ABS upstream three materials has increased and decreased. The acrylonitrile market was weak last week. The low price of raw materials fell, and the cost of acrylonitrile continued to decline; In the early stage, enterprises such as Korol and SECCO have limited relief from pressure on acrylonitrile supply due to load reduction. Currently, there is insufficient market demand, and the acrylonitrile market is weak and stagnant.

Last week, the domestic butadiene market continued its downward trend. During the week, the supply price of Sinopec, a major producer, was slightly lowered, and many enterprises in the Northeast sold their products at low prices, resulting in a negative supply side. At the same time, the downstream synthetic rubber market continued to decline, with downstream profits under pressure and inquiry intentions depressed. It is expected that the domestic butadiene market will continue to be weak in the short term.

The styrene market in Shandong rose in a narrow range last week. Spot demand for styrene was moderate, international oil prices rebounded from low levels, and cost support slightly recovered. In the early stage, the high inventory at the port has also been smoothly removed in the near future, and the basic situation of styrene has gradually improved. It is expected that the domestic styrene market may strengthen in the short term.

Demand: Recently, downstream factories, including the main terminal appliance industry, have been generally proactive in stocking, and some manufacturers still have raw material inventory to digest. Overall demand improvement is limited, actual transaction volume is weak, and the smoothness of on-site delivery is poor.

Aftermarket Forecast

Recently, the overall trend of ABS upstream three materials is weak, which generally supports the cost side of ABS. The high starting point of petrochemical plants has increased, and the market supply continues to be abundant. Demand side support is poor, merchants’ mentality is weak, and operations tend to yield profits and take orders. It is expected that the ABS market will continue to operate weakly due to the impact of supply and demand contradictions in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the Business Agency, the domestic aggregate MDI market has significantly declined. From March 17th to 24th, the domestic aggregate MDI market price fell from 16560 yuan/ton to 16160 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decrease of 2.42%, a year-on-year increase of 0.12% and a year-on-year decrease of 14.72%. The downstream demand side of polymerization MDI has poor purchasing power, insufficient tracking ability, and a strong negotiation atmosphere. Traders often lowered their quotations by around 200 yuan/ton in order to ship the goods on the order, but the results were not significant.

On the supply side, a factory in the north has no quotation for distribution channels and no assessment for MDI aggregation in the past three decades; A factory in Shanghai reported a stable price of 17200 yuan/ton for polymerization MDI this week, with discounted supply.

In terms of cost, raw material pure benzene: The domestic market price of pure benzene has increased slightly, and the output has decreased. Pure benzene has been warehoused in East China ports, and there are still maintenance plans for later supply devices, easing the pressure on domestic pure benzene supply. Raw material aniline: domestic aniline high level finishing. Downstream, after aniline rose to a high level, the mood for receiving goods slowed down, and purchasing was just in demand. The cost of aggregating MDI is mixed.

On the demand side, the follow-up efforts on the demand side have been poor. In addition to maintaining high orders from the main factories of refrigerators and freezers, overall downstream demand side buying has been poor, and short-term aggregate MDI demand side support is insufficient.

In the future, it is predicted that the maintenance of devices will gradually resume and the supply will increase, but the downstream demand will be favorable for a long time. The analyst of Business News Polymerization MDI predicts that the domestic polymerization MDI market is mainly subject to fluctuations and consolidation.

According to statistics, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend was stable this week. As of the weekend, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 4380 yuan/ton, which was flat compared to the price of 4380 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 1.86%.

This week, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend has been stable, and the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers’ devices have been operating stably. Recently, the supply of goods on the site has been normal, and the situation of goods on the site is normal. The manufacturer’s inventory is not high, and the upstream liquid ammonia price at the terminal has decreased slightly. In addition, the price trend of nitric acid has been stable, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate has been temporarily stable. Recently, the shipping market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is normal, and downstream purchases are on demand. Recently, the demand for nitro compound fertilizer in the downstream is normal, and the procurement in the domestic downstream civil explosive industry is average. The domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have not started operations high, and the recent price of ammonium nitrate is still mainly stable. Up to now, the mainstream of negotiation in Shaanxi is 5300-5400 yuan/ton, the mainstream of negotiation in Shandong is 4500-4600 yuan/ton, and the price in Hebei is 4600-4700 yuan/ton.

This week, the price trend of concentrated nitric acid in China is temporarily stable, with the average domestic nitric acid price of 2466.67 yuan/ton as of the 17th, which is unchanged from the price of 2466.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the 6th week. Recently, the operation of domestic nitric acid plants has been stable, the supply of concentrated nitric acid in the market has been normal, and the on-site shipment situation is good. Recently, the price trend of nitric acid in the market has been stable, and the stable price of raw material nitric acid is beneficial to the ammonium nitrate market. The market price of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable.

The price trend of upstream liquid ammonia has declined this week, with the price of liquid ammonia reaching 4156.67 yuan/ton as of the 17th, down 5.67% from the price of 4406.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. In main production areas such as Shandong, Hebei, Jiangsu, Anhui, and Lianghu, prices have fallen. Recently, there have been many devices restarted, and the amount of ammonia released has increased. The increase in supply has driven manufacturers to lower factory prices. There are large factories in Shandong Province that have lowered their prices, with a cumulative decrease of around 200-300 yuan/ton. The decline in upstream liquid ammonia prices has brought a certain negative impact on the ammonium nitrate market, and the market price of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable.

Recently, the demand in the downstream civil explosive industry has weakened, the price trend of liquid ammonia market has declined, and the price of nitric acid has slightly decreased. The spot supply of ammonium nitrate is normal. The ammonium nitrate analyst of the business association believes that the market price of ammonium nitrate may decline slightly in the future.

According to the price monitoring data of the Business Agency, as of March 20, 2023, the reference price of domestic n-propanol was 8000 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as that of March 1, 2023. The benchmark price of n-propanol for Business Club was 8050.00 yuan/ton, up 0.62% from the beginning of this month (8000.00 yuan/ton).

As can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the Business Agency, in the recent period (3.12-3.20), the overall range of the domestic n-propanol market has fluctuated and operated in a narrow range. The overall performance of the downstream demand side is relatively calm, while the overall change in the n-propanol supply and demand side is not significant. The market for n-propanol in Shandong Province fluctuated slightly, with a price adjustment range of around 50-100 yuan/ton. The overall stable operation of the n-propanol market in Nanjing is dominated. As of March 20, the market price of n-propanol in Shandong Province in China is around 7500-8000 yuan/ton, and the barrel price is around 9000 yuan/ton. The market price of n-propanol in Nanjing is around 9000-9500 yuan/ton. Distributors in various regions still have reservations about prices, and the difficulty in monitoring prices may lead to differences in the specific negotiation situation. There are also differences in each region, and negotiations based on actual orders are primarily conducted.

Prediction of future trend of n-propanol

At present, the trading atmosphere of n-propanol on the market is normal, and the attitude of the operators is stable. The n-propanol data analyst of the business agency believes that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market will mainly operate stably and slightly, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in information on the supply and demand side.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic market for imported potassium chloride has slightly declined this week, with the price falling from 3850.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 3812.50 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 0.97%. The arrival price of potassium chloride in domestic salt lakes this week is 3400-3500 yuan/ton. The port has a storage capacity of about 2.5 million tons. On March 19th, the potassium chloride (import) commodity index was 121.03, unchanged from yesterday, down 30.68% from the cycle’s highest point of 174.60 (2022-06-21), and up 107.78% from the lowest point of 58.25 on August 6th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to March 1st, 2012 to now)

2、 Market analysis

This week, prices quoted by mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers fell slightly. The port’s 62% self raised price of white potassium was around 3450-3550 yuan/ton. The self raised price of 60% Dahong Granules at the port is around 3650-3750 yuan/ton. Border trade 62% Russian white potassium is around 3300-3400 yuan/ton.

From the perspective of the downstream market of potassium chloride, the ex-factory price of potassium carbonate stabilized at a low level this week, with a price of 9100.00 yuan/ton, representing a year-on-year increase of 0.37% compared to the same period last year. The ex-factory price of potassium nitrate decreased slightly this week, from 5940.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 5900.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 0.67%, a year-on-year decrease of 16.31% compared to the same period last year. Overall, the downstream market for potassium chloride declined slightly, and downstream customers’ demand for potassium chloride weakened.

3、 Aftermarket Forecast

In late March, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate in a narrow range, with consolidation being the main trend. The prices of potassium chloride in salt lakes and Zangge have stabilized at low levels. The downstream market of potassium chloride has declined slightly, with downstream demand weakening, and procurement is mainly for immediate needs. International potash fertilizer prices continue to decline. Potassium chloride analysts from the Business Agency believe that domestic potassium chloride import prices may decline slightly in the short term.

According to the data from the previous stock exchange, from the beginning of March to now, Shanghai Rubber has continued to fluctuate and decline, with the main contract falling from about 12500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to about 11550 yuan/ton, with a range of 7.6%. Among them, on the 16th, it fell by more than 400 points on a single day, making it the largest single day decline so far this month. According to the data from the Business News Agency, the spot market of natural rubber in China has been fluctuating in tandem with the futures trend. As of March 17, 2023, the domestic full latex market in East China was 11330 yuan/ton, down 5.5% month on month and 11.35% year on year.

Moreover, as can be seen from Figure 2 and Figure 3, the current price level is not only the lowest level since 2023, but also the lowest level in the domestic natural rubber market since Tianjiao reached its annual low of 11170 yuan/ton on October 31, 2022.

Influencing factors:

Large increase in imports in the early stage

According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs of China on March 7th, China’s imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) increased significantly from January to February 2023, compared to 1193000 tons in the same period of 2022. The significant increase in import volume in the previous two months has offset the positive supply side shortage, and currently, the import of rubber from major domestic ports is still continuing to arrive.

Current inventory accumulation

Affected by the continuous arrival of imported glue at the port, China’s bonded port areas and social areas have continued to accumulate stock of spot glue. According to data, as of March 5, 2023, the total inventory of Tianjiao Bonded and General Trade in Qingdao was 594900 tons, an increase of 16200 tons compared to the previous period, with a year-on-year increase of 2.81%. The bonded area inventory increased by 2.89% to 107300 tons on a month-on-month basis, while general trade inventory increased by 2.79% to 487600 tons on a month-on-month basis. It is understood that the current market is slowly digesting, with poor circulation, and a continuous accumulation of natural rubber, resulting in an oversupply of natural rubber.

Impact of crude oil slump

As the most fundamental source of chemicals, the trend of crude oil is the most direct macro influencing factor for the rise and fall of futures commodities. On March 15th, due to the impact of credit Suisse’s unease on the financial market, causing pressure on risky assets such as stock market and crude oil, and the negative impact of US crude oil inventory growth exceeding expectations, international crude oil futures plummeted: WTI fell 5.2%; Brent fell 4.9%. Affected by this, on the 16th, most futures varieties in the domestic futures market fell, resulting in a strong bearish atmosphere; The main contract of Shanghai Rubber fell by more than 400 points on a single day, and the domestic spot rubber price fell along with the market, making the market increasingly cautious in investing in natural rubber.

Future Forecast:

In terms of annual comparison, in the first quarter of 2023, natural rubber did not break out of the sharp rise in the traditional annual low production period. Instead, after a sharp decline in early February, it continued to fluctuate slightly and fell to this point, with a significant overall decline. In 2022, the natural rubber market in the same period was affected by public health events, resulting in limited circulation in consumption areas and reduced downstream demand.

In terms of supply, although natural rubber is currently in the global seasonal annual low production period, a small amount of production will be started in eastern and southeastern Yunnan as soon as the end of this month, and Hainan will also start production in the middle of next month. The market is concerned about the market changes caused by the current demand situation and the further increase in supply in the future, with strong bearish sentiment.

On the downstream side, although domestic rubber product companies have slowly recovered since the middle of last month, and there has been an upward trend in heavy truck sales data, the actual procurement demand of downstream product companies has not significantly improved, and the market supply and demand situation is still dominated by more supply and less demand, which is still a negative trend.

It is expected that under the influence of the current macro situation, the future market of natural rubber is not very optimistic. At the end of the first quarter, the market will still be shrouded in a strong bearish atmosphere in the investment market, and weak downstream demand will still lead to a lack of substantive support for the upward trend of the natural rubber market. The market panic caused by excessive decline in rubber futures needs time to digest; In the second quarter, the poor demand situation at home and abroad is expected to continue for a long time. As a major importer, China will continue to reduce its spot rubber orders to major Southeast Asian producers due to the high spot rubber inventory, and the prices of Thailand and Malaysia latex are expected to continue to suffer from significant downward risks; China’s downstream product enterprises have finished products in stock, and the wait-and-see mood is heating up. The market may continue to be weak.