In August, domestic epoxy resin mainly operated smoothly with narrow oscillations, with very small fluctuations throughout the month.
East China Liquid E-51 mainstream: 14000-14500 yuan/ton (acceptance of purified water leaving the factory)
Mount Huangshan Solid E ‑ 12 Mainstream: 13300 ‑ 13600 yuan/ton (delivered in cash)
The monthly average price increased from 14125 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 14250 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of only 0.88%. The range fluctuation is limited, and the negotiation space for actual orders is the main factor. The listed price has not changed much.
2、 Cost side: raw material fluctuations, no strong driving force
Upstream bisphenol A and epichlorohydrin (ECH) showed a volatile consolidation in August, with limited range of upward and downward exploration. The cost did not experience a unilateral sharp rise or fall, and there was neither strong upward driving force nor significant negative impact of collapse, forming a neutral bottoming out pattern for epoxy.
3、 Supply side: Proactively control production to avoid excessive impact
Downstream shipments were weak in August, and factory inventory turnover was slow. Enterprises took the initiative to reduce load and control production
The production rate of liquid epoxy has dropped from 61% to around 55%; Solid epoxy production has fallen to around 44%, with increased maintenance and production restrictions. Proactively reducing supply to alleviate inventory pressure and hedge against negative demand during the off-season has supported bottom prices and prevented a deep decline in the market. The overall situation is characterized by active supply contraction and non malignant volume increase.
4、 Demand side: Traditional off-season, mainly focused on essential procurement
Downstream coating flooring, anti-corrosion, wind power composite materials, and copper-clad laminates are generally in the traditional off-season: terminals mainly consume their own inventory, new order increments are insufficient, procurement is cautious, on-demand procurement is weak, hoarding willingness is weak, trading is light, and it is difficult to drive price increases, forming a pattern of “weak demand and difficult price rise”.
5、 Summary of Market Pattern
August epoxy resin is a typical stable market with weak supply and demand and balanced game theory: the off-season of demand brings weak upward momentum, factories actively control production and provide cost support to block downward space, and the whole month is dominated by range consolidation and actual order bargaining, lacking trend market.

This week, the overall price of caustic soda remained stable and stable. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the weekend was around 639 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 27.71%. On August 27th, the Business Society Chlor Alkali Index was 714 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 66.45% from the highest point of 2128 points during the cycle (2021-10-24), and an increase of 0.99% from the lowest point of 707 points on February 27th, 2026. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)
2、 Market analysis
This week’s caustic soda prices have been consolidating. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is around 590-670 yuan/ton in the mainstream market of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. In Zhejiang region, the price of caustic soda is around 830-860 yuan/ton when 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali is delivered to Xiaoshan mainstream market. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is stable, and the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali is around 1850-1950 yuan/ton (converted to 100%).
This week, there was little fluctuation in the regional market of domestic liquid alkali, and it remained stable in multiple dimensions with a moderate consolidation trend. Looking at next week, there are still expectations of an increase in the chlor alkali load in Shandong. Insufficient follow-up on new export orders makes it difficult to drive up alkali prices. Downstream production has increased, but some aluminum plants have replenished their inventory based on their own inventory levels, while aluminum oxide plants have low participation in spot trading and their quoted prices have fallen. The downstream demand for non aluminum continues to be sluggish, with more on-demand procurement and no improvement, putting pressure on the market.
Analysts believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has remained stable this week. Recently, downstream domestic aluminum oxide shipments have been generally received by non aluminum enterprises. The price of caustic soda will be maintained and started next week due to large inventory, which is not a substantial benefit. However, most brands still intend to maintain stability, and the overall supply and demand game predicts that caustic soda may tend to operate in a consolidated manner, depending on downstream market demand.

In terms of raw materials, the coal tar market for raw materials has shown a broad upward trend this week. As of August 20th, the mainstream transaction price of high-temperature coal tar in Shandong has risen to 4340-4370 yuan/ton, an increase of 290-320 yuan/ton from last Thursday. The reduction in production by coking enterprises has led to a tight supply of coal tar, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement has increased, driving up prices. The strong rise in raw material prices has provided significant cost support for the carbon black market.
On the supply side, the operating rate of the carbon black industry has increased this week. According to the operating rate of carbon black enterprises, it was 67.73%, an increase of 1.98 percentage points from last week. Some large enterprises are increasing their production load to fulfill orders, and there are currently no plans to add new maintenance manufacturers in the near future. However, there are still some manufacturers in the Shandong region undergoing maintenance. The enthusiasm of on-site operators for starting work has increased.
In terms of the end market, downstream tire companies have seen a narrow increase in capacity utilization, but overall demand side support is limited. Currently, it is the off-season for traditional consumption, and the terminal market lacks the driving force of essential demand. Downstream tire companies have low acceptance of high priced orders, and carbon black companies are facing certain shipping pressure. The market transactions are mainly based on first-time orders and pre-sale orders, and the actual transaction volume is lower than expected.
Influencing factors: The cost side is the main driving force of this round of market trend, and the significant increase in coal tar prices has pushed up the production cost of carbon black. From the perspective of price position, the current 60 day cycle price of carbon black is at a medium high level, and the 3-month and 1-year cycle prices are both at a high level, with limited upward space. In addition, some carbon black companies have low inventory levels, providing some bottom support for prices.
Outlook for the future: This week, the price increase of carbon black market has expanded due to cost push, and weak downstream demand has constrained the volume of high priced transactions. In the short term, there is still a possibility that the raw material coal tar will continue to rise, and cost support is expected to continue. However, there is a lack of substantial improvement on the demand side, coupled with prices already in a high range. It is expected that the carbon black market will mainly fluctuate at a high level next week, and the increase may gradually narrow.

One reason is that downstream demand has entered the traditional off-season, and industries such as tire matching anti-aging agents and coatings have seen a decline in production. The terminal only needs to be purchased immediately without centralized replenishment, resulting in light market trading and a lack of transaction support. The second is that the on-site equipment operates stably, the circulation of goods is sufficient, and traders face significant pressure to reduce inventory. They actively offer discounts and sell goods, exacerbating the downward trend in prices. Thirdly, the upstream acetone market is weak, MIBK’s cost bottom line is loose, manufacturers have insufficient willingness to raise prices, and market pessimism dominates the market.
The core driving force is the strong rise of raw material acetone, which significantly increases the production cost of MIBK, compresses industry profits, and even causes losses. Manufacturers’ willingness to sell at high prices has greatly increased, completely reversing the weak market pattern. At the same time, after the price fell to the low point of the year, traders and downstream bought at the bottom to replenish inventory, the market trading rebounded, sentiment recovered, and the bearish market completely ended, driving prices to steadily recover and rise.
This round of rebound is purely cost driven, not a trend reversal driven by demand recovery. At the end of the month, downstream consumers are still in the off-season for consumption, and caution is exercised in purchasing goods at high prices. The increase in transactions is limited, and the loose supply pattern in the industry has not fundamentally changed. There is no good news of a shortage of goods, so the rebound of the market is limited, and the overall recovery is mainly based on fluctuations.
In the short-term market, cost remains the core pricing logic, with a focus on tracking trends in acetone prices, changes in MIBK plant operation, downstream terminal operation recovery, and changes in port inventory sources. At the same time, pay attention to the strength of the basis and the breakthrough of technical pressure levels, in order to determine the sustainability of the market rebound and the turning point of market sentiment.

As of July 24th, the average price of industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane in China was 6166 yuan/ton. The cyclohexane market as a whole showed a stable center of gravity and a weak oscillation pattern. The mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong was in the range of 5956-6600 yuan/ton, with a slight rebound in the high price area of East China. Market trading was mainly based on small orders for essential needs, and there was a lack of large order transactions.
2、 Market analysis
In terms of market analysis, the current market is in a seasonal off-season, with prominent supply-demand contradictions. The supply side has sufficient spot circulation, and traders and enterprises have moderately high inventory. Under the pressure of shipment, there are many behaviors of giving discounts; The demand side has insufficient relay power, and downstream acceptance of the current price is average, with a strong wait-and-see attitude, resulting in an overall shift in the focus of negotiations towards low levels, with regional price differences widening (around 6700 yuan/ton in Shandong and around 7800 yuan/ton in East China).
In terms of cost, the upstream pure benzene price has recently weakened or fluctuated at a high level, and the cost support has loosened or maintained rigid support compared to the previous period. The fluctuation of raw material prices has directly transmitted to the cyclohexane production process, squeezing the profit margin of manufacturers and lacking the confidence to raise prices. Crude oil linkage: The fluctuation adjustment of international crude oil prices affects the cost of pure benzene and hydrogenation through the petrochemical industry chain. Currently, there is no obvious unilateral rise or fall driving force on the cost side, which has supported the bottom of cyclohexane prices but has no strong upward momentum.
Downstream demand: Core downstream: The operating rates of caprolactam, adipic acid, and cyclohexanone plants remain at around 70% -75%, but the terminal nylon, synthetic fiber, and textile industries are in the traditional off-season with insufficient orders, only maintaining stable procurement for essential needs without releasing incremental demand. The solvent and other: coating materials, pharmaceutical intermediates, and ordinary solvents fields are affected by environmental policies and off-season, with low operating rates and low purchasing willingness, gradually turning to substitutes or delaying procurement, making it difficult to form effective demand support.
Operating rate: Cyclohexane plant: The average operating rate in China remains at 62% -66% (with some large factories reaching full load of 75% -80% during certain periods), and the main plant operates smoothly. The resumption of production capacity during early maintenance has led to an increase in external sources of goods, and the supply side continues to be loose. Industrial chain support: The integrated plant supporting caprolactam has stable load, and a large amount of cyclohexane is put into the market, exacerbating the accumulation of social inventory.
3、 Future forecast
Cyclohexane analysts believe that the short-term cyclohexane market lacks sufficient momentum for a significant upward trend, and is likely to maintain a narrow range of weak fluctuations or sideways consolidation. Negative factors include the continued off-season demand, high inventory to be digested, and limited cost support for pure benzene without a strong rebound. The operating range is expected to fluctuate between 6000-6900 yuan/ton (Shandong reference 6600 yuan/ton), and there may be slight downward pressure on high prices in East China.

This week, the aniline market has risen sharply. On July 6th, the price of aniline in the market was 9825 yuan/ton, and on July 10th, it was 10725 yuan/ton. The price increased by 9.16% during the week and 50.1% compared to the same period last year.
2、 Analysis and Review
During the week, the supply of aniline was tight, and the company’s inventory was controllable. With stable demand, prices were pushed up. At the same time, the price of raw material pure benzene has strengthened, and the listing price of pure benzene by major manufacturers has been raised. Driven by both raw materials and demand, the price of aniline has risen by 500 yuan/ton and 400 yuan/ton respectively during the week. As of this Friday, the mainstream domestic price for aniline is 10700-10800 yuan/ton.
On the cost side: The Middle East conflict has been fluctuating throughout the week, with crude oil prices rising and pure benzene production rates falling to a historic low. Supply is tight, leading to a strong upward trend in pure benzene prices. Downstream production has declined, with some downstream areas experiencing a downturn, resulting in pressure on production rates. Overall, with strong cost support and expectations of increased exports, it is expected that the pure benzene market will show a strong trend in July.
3、 Future expectations
The current price of aniline has risen to a high level, and downstream caution has led to a slowdown in demand. It is expected that the aniline market will absorb the increase in the short term and closely monitor changes in costs and demand.

Market analysis: The domestic butyl acetate market experienced a weak downward trend in June. On the supply side, the butyl acetate unit is operating stably, and the market supply has shown sufficient performance within the month. The inventory pressure of the enterprise has increased, and in order to promote shipment, the quotation has been lowered. In terms of raw materials, although the price of acetic acid has rebounded and stopped falling, there is limited support for butyl ester, and the market atmosphere is clearly bearish; The price of n-butanol has experienced a wide decline, with weak cost support and a pessimistic attitude among butyl acetate manufacturers, driving the price of butyl acetate to continue to decline.
On the cost side, the overall price of raw material acetic acid has increased narrowly, while the n-butanol market has fallen widely. The cost side is mostly bearish, and downstream demand has entered the off-season. The enthusiasm for purchasing in the market is not high, and actual transactions are limited. The bearish atmosphere in the market has driven the mentality of butyl acetate downward.
Market forecast: Currently, the price of n-butanol upstream of butyl acetate is low, with insufficient cost support. The price of acetic acid is stable, but the boost to butyl acetate is limited. There is a lack of favorable conditions in the market, and the trend of strong supply and weak demand is obvious. It is expected that the butyl acetate market will consolidate and operate weakly in the later stage. In the future, attention will be paid to the price execution of raw materials such as acetic acid, n-butanol, and ethyl acetate manufacturers.